Aarhus University 1 - energirike.no€¦ · Case study: All countries have 100% wind + solar (1)...
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Gorm Bruun Andresen Ph.d., industrial postdoc Energy System Engineering Department of Engineering Aarhus University 1
Transcript of Aarhus University 1 - energirike.no€¦ · Case study: All countries have 100% wind + solar (1)...
Gorm Bruun Andresen Ph.d., industrial postdoc Energy System Engineering Department of Engineering Aarhus University 1
Renewable Energy Systems Group Aarhus University
G.B. Andresen, Haugesund, 7/8 – 2013 [email protected]
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Uffe Poulsen
Emil Hedevang
(Jochen Cleve)
Group leader:
Martin Greiner (T) +45 8942 3472 Professor, System Engineering (E) [email protected]
Main research topics:
(1) Large-scale renewable energy systems
(2) Wind farm modeling
(3) Turbulence modeling
(4) The physics of complex networks
About this talk…
G.B. Andresen, Haugesund, 7/8 – 2013 [email protected]
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Further reading:
• R.A. Rodriguez et al., ArXiv 1306.1079 (submitted to Renewable Energy).
• S. Becker et al., ArXiv 1307.1723 (submitted to Energy).
• D. Heide et al., Renewable Energy 35 (2010).
• D. Heide et al., Renewable Energy 36 (2011).
• M. G. Rasmussen et al., Energy Policy 51 (2012).
• Very short introduction to weather-driven modeling.
• Sharing surplus in a renewable Europe. - How large are the benefits? - What is required to realize
the benefits?
• Final remarks
Funding:
WEATHER-DRIVEN MODELING We cannot control when the wind blows or the sun shines
G.B. Andresen, Haugesund, 7/8 – 2013 [email protected]
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“Let the weather decide!”
G.B. Andresen, Haugesund, 7/8 – 2013 [email protected]
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High-resolution weather data (70,128 h): 50 x 50 km2, 1 hour weather data covering the 8-year period 2000-2007 for 27 European countries on and offshore.
High-resolution wind and solar PV power generation.
Regional electricity demand: Hourly electricity demand for 50 individual regions.
G.B. Andresen, Haugesund, 7/8 – 2013 [email protected]
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The European wind and solar resource
Seasonal optimal mix
Resource maps
Most important time scales
and correlations
G.B. Andresen, Haugesund, 7/8 – 2013 [email protected]
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Energy system model:
Balancing system:
Variable renewable power
Dispatchable power
Electricity demand
Round trip electricity storage
Surplus
High shares of wind and solar leads to large surplus production
G.B. Andresen, Haugesund, 7/8 – 2013 [email protected]
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TRANSMISSION OF WIND AND SOLAR SURPLUS
Solar and in particular wind power is smoothed over large distances
G.B. Andresen, Haugesund, 7/8 – 2013 [email protected]
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Wind power, January 2001 Solar power, June 2001
Case study: All countries have 100% wind + solar (1)
G.B. Andresen, Haugesund, 7/8 – 2013 [email protected]
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Availability of Renewable Energy
Quantifying the benefit of
transmission is done through the
total need for balancing
Bi = ( ∆ i − (KF) i )−
Which is a result of
Mismatch
Net Exports
Rolando Rodriguez Power t ransmission in a highly renewable Europe 5/ 12
Maximum benefit of transmission
The MAXIMUM BENEFIT OF TRANSMISSION quantifies how much balancing/surplus can be reduced by sharing local surplus wind and solar power in an unconstrained pan-European transmission network.
Case study: All countries have 100% wind + solar (1)
G.B. Andresen, Haugesund, 7/8 – 2013 [email protected]
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We calculate the optimal physical flow of surplus wind and solar power to derive minimal transmission capacity requirements. A total of 70.000 hours are used in the analysis.
• As of winter 2010, the actual transmission capacity was about 70 GW.
• In our case study, 830 GW are required to achieve the maximum benefit.
• However, only 390 GW can achieve 99% of the maximum benefit.
Building a pan-European transmission grid to share renewable surplus (1)
G.B. Andresen, Haugesund, 7/8 – 2013 [email protected]
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Key assumptions: • 90% of maximum benefit of
transmission. • Official 2020 targets for wind
and solar. • 100% gross share in 2050. • Optimized wind-solar mix in
2050.
Building a pan-European transmission grid to share renewable surplus (2)
G.B. Andresen, Haugesund, 7/8 – 2013 [email protected]
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Investments:
Achieved benefit of transmission:
• To realize 70 – 90% of the maximum benefit of transmission, 2x – 3.5x todays capacity is required in the endpoint scenario (2050).
• Most of the build-up should happen in the period 2020 – 2040. • The achieved benefit is near elimination of VRE surplus in the
period 2025 – 2032. • In 2032, the benefit corresponds to about 5% of the annual
electricity demand of Europe. In 2050, it is about 10%.
An optimal wind-solar mix (2050/endpoint scenario)
G.B. Andresen, Haugesund, 7/8 – 2013 [email protected]
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• For a pan-European power system, the optimal wind-solar energy mix depends on the strength of the transmission network.
• A typical benefit of optimizing the wind-solar mix is 5% of the annual electricity demand in Europe.
No transmission, 70/30 wind-solar mix
Unconstrained transmission, 80/20 wind-solar mix
G.B. Andresen, Haugesund, 7/8 – 2013 [email protected]
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Thank you for listening!
Final remarks
• Main growth of renewables and transmission lines happens between 2020 and 2040.
• Between 2 to 4 times the transmission capacity of today yields the largest benefit per GW installed.
• An optimal wind-solar mix has a potential similar to that of transmission. • Beyond 2030, additional measures such as storage, power2heat or power2gas are
likely required to make use of all renewable surplus.
Storage in a renewable pan-European power system
G.B. Andresen, Haugesund, 7/8 – 2013 [email protected]
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A completely renewable electricity supply can be achieved with: • A strong pan-European transmission
grid. • 150 TWh/yr balancing, e.g. from hydro
storage lakes. • 2 TWh high-efficiency storage. • 25 TWh of hydrogen storage. • Annual wind + solar energy
corresponding to 103% of the annual European consumption of about 3000 TWh/yr.
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