AAP Consumer Data Presentation, April 7, 2011
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Transcript of AAP Consumer Data Presentation, April 7, 2011
Present: New Ways to Understand Shifting Book
Sales ChannelsApril 7, 2011
&
James Howitt–Director of Publishing Services, Bowker
James oversees the client relationship of a host of Bowker business intelligence services, including the PubTrack consumer research panel reaching annually over 40,000 ‘e’ and ‘p’ book consumers. In addition to being involved in the consumer research panel, he oversees sales data collection and analytics tools for the higher education and trade book markets for Bowker. Before his current position James served for Nielsen BookScan UK and US managing client relationships with Point of Sale data.
Ted Hill-President, THA ConsultingWith over 25 years experience in the publishing industry, Ted has launched dozens of new businesses and business initiatives. As a business development consultant with deep knowledge of the publishing and information industries Ted is a frequent speaker at industry events on the subject of publishing technology.
2
Presenters
Agenda
Introduction to consumer data Background on the best practices Introduction to how book consumer data is
used sales and marketing professionals◦ Essential facts◦ Key trends◦ Diving deeper
6
10
Planning Acquisitions
Development
Marketing Sales
Projecting Impacts of shifts in consumer behavior on product lines
Selecting comp titles based on reader demographics
Identifying lifetime value of customers
Identifying new opportunities
Projecting growth/decline based of categories based on demographic trends
Field Testing
Usability Studies
Tracking customers across different types of accountsUnderstanding
why titles were bought when
Understanding the reasons for purchase and purchase intent
Diving into book behavior
Identify price paid per unit
Market basket analysis
Industry Key Performance Indicators
Quarterly Consumer Landscape – demographics, book, channel, genre, behavior trends report
Consumer Bookshelves
Genre Profiles
Advertising and Social Media Book Awareness
Purchase Dynamics and Influences -Planned vs. Impulse
Purchase Metrics
Pricing Strategies
Channel Analysis -Market Share
Customer Value/Migration
Occasions/Shopping
Book Cover and Package Design - Cover Image Testing - Page Layout Testing - Product DesignUsability Studies - Web Testing - App Testing - Page Flip Technology - Product Usability
Campaign Level Custom Projects
Book Lover Panels
Customer Satisfaction
Author Profiles
Character Profiles
Series Profiles
BISG’s Consumer Attitudes Toward E-book Reading Study
BISG’s Student Attitudes Toward Content in Higher Education Study
Sta
nd
ard
R
ep
orts
Cu
sto
m
Rep
orts
All Custom Reports
Projecting Impacts of shifts in consumer behavior on product lines
Selecting comp titles based on reader demographics
Identifying lifetime value of customers
Identifying new opportunities
Projecting growth/decline based of categories based on demographic trends
Field Testing
Usability Studies
Tracking customers across different types of accountsUnderstanding
why titles were bought when
Understanding the reasons for purchase and purchase intent
Diving into book behavior
Identify price paid per unit
Market basket analysis
Industry Key Performance IndicatorsQuarterly Consumer Landscape – demographics, book, channel, genre, behavior trends report
Consumer Bookshelves
Genre Profiles
Advertising and Social Media Book AwarenessPurchase Dynamics and Influences -Planned vs. Impulse
Purchase Metrics
Pricing Strategies
Channel Analysis -Market Share
Customer Value/Migration
Occasions/Shopping
Book Cover and Package Design - Cover Image Testing - Page Layout Testing - Product DesignUsability Studies - Web Testing - App Testing - Page Flip Technology - Product Usability
Campaign Level Custom Projects
Book Lover Panels
Customer Satisfaction
Author Profiles
Character Profiles
Series Profiles
BISG’s Consumer Attitudes Toward E-book Reading Study
BISG’s Student Attitudes Toward Content in Higher Education Study
Sta
nd
ard
R
ep
orts
Cu
sto
m
Rep
orts
All Custom Reports
Planning Acquisitions
DevelopmentMarketin
g Sales
Usin
g
Con
su
mer
Data
Balancing the art and science of publishing
“In a world awash in data, we need to know what’s essential and what’s a distraction.”
-Publishing Executive
Background on the best practices
2010 Annual Consumer Sample & Methodology
45,000 US book buyers annually 6,000 US book buyers per month (starting Jan 2011) Selected according to Age, Gender, Income, Household size,
and location balanced to US Census Representing an annual view of 250,000 book purchases and
90,000 shopping occasions All purchases collected at ISBN level using Bowker’s Books in
Print Web Services Online survey conducted monthly Ages 13 & older 97% confidence rating 2.5% margin of error
Began project in fall of 2009 Goal was to look at how
consumer data is used throughout the organization
Conducted interviews with executives in different functional areas (editorial, sales, marketing, etc.)
White paper released April 2010
A lot’s changed since then!
20
Background on the best practices
Introduction to consumer data New technologies are changing traditional
publishing practices
Consumer data is rapidly becoming an essential tool for all stages of the publishing process
Reveals who buys books and why they choose the titles they buy
It’s utility varies depending on the job and business goals of the person using it
The value comes from knowing the essential facts following key trends, and diving deeper into the data to solve specific business problems
Consumer data validates & provides context
Using book consumer data
Understand the essential facts about book consumers
Follow key trends in how they are changing who and what they buy
Know how and when to dive deeper into the data to solve business problems
“We keep our finger on the pulse with POS data. Then we use consumer data to tell us who’s buying what and why?”
-Data Analyst
Understand the essential facts
Understand the essential factsDemographics: Who buys and reads different kinds of books?
How old are they? What gender? How much do they earn? Where do they learn about books?
Categories & Formats:
What do they buy? Which genres or subject areas? What formats? Which price points?
Market Channels:
Where do they buy? How often do they shop there? How much do they spend?
Motivation: Why do they buy? As an impulse? As a gift? Where do they learn about books? Why do they choose the titles they ultimately purchase?
Essential facts for marketing How channel customer demographics, and
motivations to buy differ from one genre or category to another and from one account to another
How average selling price and format preferences for books differ from one channel to another
Factors that influence purchase decisions or where different demographic groups learn about new titles
Essential facts for sales
How the demographic profile of the consumer who buys a book at Target differs from the typical Wal-Mart consumer or from the consumers at one of the large book chains
For which genres and categories is in-store display most important
The best times of year to sell to a particular group of consumers
Who is the graphic novel buyer?Full Year 2010 – Books Purchased
All Boo
ks
Adult
Fict
ion
Graph
ic Nov
els
Fant
asy
Horro
r
Humor
Sci-F
i0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
35% 32%
52%38%
46%
24%
63%
65% 68%
48%62%
54%
76%
37%
FemalesMales
Who is the graphic novel buyer?Full Year 2010 – Books Purchased
All Boo
ks
Adult
Fict
ion
Graph
ic Nov
els
Fant
asy
Horro
r
Humor
Sci-F
i0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
6% 4%11% 5% 7% 5% 7%
21%17%
39%
22% 20%18% 14%
25%
21%
34%
33% 33%
25% 25%
18%
18%
10%
19% 19%
18% 22%
15%
20%
4%
14% 13%
16%19%
14% 19%
3% 7% 7%18%
12%
65+ Years
55-64 Years
45-54 Years
30-44 Years
18-29 Years
13-17 Years
Who is the graphic novel buyer?Full Year 2010 – Books Purchased
All Boo
ks
Adult
Fict
ion
Graph
ic Nov
els
Fant
asy
Horro
r
Humor
Sci-F
i0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
18% 17%28%
20% 22% 17% 22%
12% 13%
23%
17% 18%
9%10%
16% 16%
14%
18% 16%
16%16%
23% 23%
16%
20% 21%
22%
26%
15% 14%
10%13% 12%
19%12%
11% 11%6% 9% 9%
13%11%
5% 5% 3% 3% 3% 5% 2%
>=$150.0K
$100.0-149.9K
$75.0-$99.9K
$50.0-$74.9K
$35.0-$49.9K
$25.0-$34.9K
<$25.0K
Where are they shopping? Full Year 2010 – Books Purchased
Book
Clubs
Book
Fairs
E-Com
mer
ce
All Oth
er D
TC
Lg C
hain
Non-T
rad.
Bks
trs
Christ
ian
Bkstrs
Inde
pend
ent B
kstrs
Discou
nt C
lose
out
Drug
Mas
s Mer
chan
dise
rs
Resal
e Th
rift
Supe
rmar
ket &
Gro
cery
War
ehou
se C
lubs
All Oth
er R
etai
l Sto
res
All Oth
er C
hann
els
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
24%
37%
2%
9%
3%
46%
30%
7%5%
1%
Graphic Novels 2009 Graphic Novels 2010
What formats are they buying? Full Year 2010 – Books Purchased
All Books
Adult Fiction
Graphic Novels
Fantasy Horror Humor Sci-Fi0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
18%
33%
5%
36%26%
7%
46%
35%
30%75%
28%
23%
21%
22%
34% 29%
17%
28%
43%
62%
23%
1% 1%0%
1% 1%1% 1%
4% 6% 2% 6% 5% 8% 7%
E-Book
Audio
Hardcover
Trade Paperback
Mass Market Paperback
Why do they purchase? Full Year 2010 – Books Purchased
Ranking of Units 2010All Adult Fiction
Graphic Novels Humor Sci-Fi
Like This Series 13% 16% 16% 18%
Like Character 7% 14% 13% 8%
Like Author 22% 13% 23% 19%
Liked Topic/Subject 10% 12% 8% 13%
Cover Art 3% 8% 1% 3%
Price 7% 6% 6% 6%
Looked Thru Book, And Liked It 5% 4% 4% 4%
Special Offer/Price 4% 4% 4% 4%
Movie/TV Show Based On Book 2% 4% 0% 3%
Intrigued By Book Title 5% 3% 5% 4%
How do they become aware? Full Year 2010 – Books Purchased
Ranking of Units 2010All Adult Fiction
Graphic Novels Humor Sci-Fi
Part of a series 15% 30% 19% 26%
Like this author 34% 24% 36% 25%
Other Awareness 7% 7% 6% 9%
In-Store Display/On Shelf/Spinning Rack 10% 7% 6% 9%
Friend/Relative Recommend 6% 5% 6% 4%
Online - Forum, Blog, Google 1% 4% 1% 2%Online - Retailer Recommend (e.g., Amazon.com, B&N.com) 2% 3% 3% 3%
Online - Book Review 3% 3% 3% 4%
In-Store Sales Clerk 1% 2% 1% 2%
Online - Publisher's Website 1% 2% 1% 2%
How impulsive are fiction buyers? Full Year 2010 – Books Purchased
Adult Fic-tion
Graphic Novels
Humor Sci-Fi0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
25%
40%32% 27%
19%
31%
22%23%
33%
15%
24% 31%
22%14%
22% 19%Impulse Purchase
Plan A Book At Specific Time, But Not Specific Bk
Plan This Specific Book, But Not Specific Time
Plan This Specific Book At That Specific Time
Let’s break if we want to
“We’ve always assume that trade paperbacks are bought by Gen Xers and Gen Ys because they’re cheaper, but that’s just not the case anymore.”
-Marketing Director
Follow key trends
Follow key trends Are the readers and buyers
of your books changing as a group?
Will there be more or fewer of them in the future?
Are they changing how and where they buy their books?
Will it be easier or harder to reach them in the future?
Key trends for marketing Both seasonal and long term sales trends Pricing trends--shifts in average selling
price, frequency of purchase, purchases per shopping trip, and market baskets
All trends related to where consumers learn about books and authors
All trends related to who learns about books online (social media, etc.)
Key trends for sales Demographic trends for book consumer and
sales channels Pricing trends for different formats and
genres Shifts in frequency of shopping, purchases
per visit or size of the average market basket Seasonal and regional trends Shifts to buying and reading online for
different categories
How much are consumers paying for young adult titles?
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 20090.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2.3%
3.3%
3.8%
3.1%
2.0%
3.7%
2.8%2.7%
UnitsUnit TrendDollarsDollar Trend
$11.11$9.08
$9.57
$8.96
41
6%
5%6%
7%
5%6%
7%6%
5%
7%6%
8% 9%8% 8%
10%10%11%11%
13%13%
16%
2%3% 3%
2% 2% 3%2%
3%2%
3%4% 4% 4% 3%
4% 4% 5%5% 5%
7%
9%
13%
% read ebooks (daily/weekly) est. % ebooks buyers
Ebook buyer trends
How are those trends changing?
Qtr 1 2009
Qtr 2 2009
Qtr 3 2009
Qtr 4 2009
Qtr 1 2010
Qtr 2 2010
Qtr 3 2010
Qtr 4 2010
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Gender/Males
Gender/Females
Online influence vs. traditional print/media
13 - 29
Years
Online Print/Media
30 - 55
Years
Online Print/Media
55 - Older
Online Print/Media
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
44Bowker PubTrack™ Consumer - © 2010
“I’d like to know if some readers are just more profitable than others.”
-Publisher
Know when & how to dive deeper
Know when & how to dive deeper Should we publish more or fewer titles in a
category or format? How can we allocate our marketing
resources to get the most sales? Are we pricing our books appropriately? Are there ways we can change our
publishing strategy to increase revenue or reduce returns?
What’s the best cover image, web design, ad copy, or shelf placement for a title?
The bulls eye pattern of influence
child
parent
friend, relativeteacher, librarian
Local booksellerfavorite author
websites, advertising
mass media, the world
Influence declines significantly with each layer
Book
Clubs
Book
Fairs
E-Com
mer
ce
All Oth
er D
TC
Lg C
hain
Non-T
rad
Bkstrs
Christ
ian
Bkstrs
Inde
pend
ent B
kstrs
Discou
nt/C
lose
out
Drug
Mass M
erch
andi
sers
Resal
e/Th
rift
Supe
rmar
ket &
Gro
cery
War
ehou
se C
lubs
All Oth
er R
etai
l Sto
res
All Oth
er C
hann
els
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
8%
4%
20%
1%
28%
2% 2%
4%3%
1%
11%
3%2% 2%
4%
6%
Year 2009 Year 2010
Where are children’s books purchased? Full year 2010
Libraries dominate as a source for books for ages 7 to12
other online retailer (B&N.com, Borders.com, etc.)
Supermarket
Books-a-Million bookstore
Half-Price Books
other Big Box store (Target, Costco, etc.)
Independent / local Bookshop
Used bookstore
Swap them among friends
Garage sale/sidewalk sale/secondhabd shop
Borders bookstore
Amazon.com
WalMart or Sams Club
Barnes & Noble bookstore
I/We buy them for them
Public Library
School Library
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
3%
3%
5%
5%
6%
6%
12%
12%
17%
19%
21%
22%
28%
40%
64%
68%
Where do they get the books they read for fun?
Who buys specific fiction genres? Gender of fiction sub-genres based on units in Q4 10
Total Market Fiction Genfiction Mistery Espionnage YA Juvenile 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
37% 35% 32% 31%42%
30% 26%
62% 65% 68% 69%58%
70% 74%
Females
Males
Mystery Espionage
Who buys specific fiction genres? Age of fiction sub-genres based on units in Q4 10
Total Market
Fiction Genfiction Mistery Espionnage YA Juvenile 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
12% 10% 9% 5% 6%
32% 32%
24%20% 20%
14% 13%
25%30%23%
21% 18%
18% 18%
23%23%27%
30% 29%
33% 34%
16%12%14% 20% 23%
30% 29%
4% 2%
Matures (Born Before 1948)
Baby Boomers (Born 1948-1966)
Gen X (Born 1967-1978)
Gen Y (Born 1979-1989)
Gen Z (Born After 1990)
Mystery Espionage
Who buys specific fiction genres? Income of fiction sub-genres based on units in Q4 10
Total Market Fiction General Fiction Mystery Espionnage YA0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
17% 17% 16% 14% 13% 17%
12% 12% 11% 12% 11%11%
16% 17% 18% 18% 17% 10%
22% 23% 22% 26% 26%21%
15% 14% 14% 15%15%
22%
11% 11% 13% 10% 12% 15%
5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 4%
>=$150.0K
$100.0-149.9K
$75.0-$99.9K
$50.0-$74.9K
$35.0-$49.9K
$25.0-$34.9K
<$25.0K
Mystery Espionage
Where do people shop? Gender by outlet based on units in Q4 10
Total Market
Book Clubs
Amazon
B&N
Borders
Books Millio
n
Wal-M
art
Target
Kmart
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
37% 36% 38% 46% 43% 37%28% 22% 23%
63% 64% 62% 54% 57% 63%72% 78% 77%
Females
Males
Where do people shop? Age by outlet based on units in Q4 10
Total Marke
t
Book Clubs
Amazon
B&N
Borders
Books M
illion
Wal-M
art
Targ
et
Kmart
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
8% 7% 6%13% 11% 14% 11% 5% 8%
20% 22% 21%23%
19% 18% 23%21% 20%
20% 19% 19%
24%
21% 19% 21%27%
17%
33% 29% 35%
26%36% 33% 28% 30% 47%
18% 23% 18% 14% 13% 16% 19% 18%9%
Matures (Born Before 1948)
Baby Boomers (Born 1948-1966)
Gen X (Born 1967-1978)
Gen Y (Born 1979-1989)
Gen Z (Born After 1990)
Where do people shop? Income by outlet based on units in Q4 10
Total Market Book Clubs Amazon B&N Borders Books Million Wal-Mart Target Kmart 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
17%23%
15% 14% 12%16%
21%14%
23%
12%
13%
11% 10%10%
12%
21%
13%
15%
16%
23%
17%15%
13%
16%
21%
15%
11%
22%
19%
21%21%
24%
26%
22%
25%
33%
15%
10%
17%19% 19%
20%
10%
19%
11%11%9%
13% 13% 17%
7%4%
8%
5%5% 3%7% 8% 5% 3% 1%
6%2%
>=$150.0K
$100.0-149.9K
$75.0-$99.9K
$50.0-$74.9K
$35.0-$49.9K
$25.0-$34.9K
<$25.0K
56
How do my genres match the outlets that people shop at?
All Channels Target Wal-MartEspionage Fantasy Mystery Romance0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
18% 14%21%
14%20%
15% 20%
12%9%
18%
11%
17%
13%15%
16%
17%
20%
16%
18%
17%
18%
23%29%
22%
25%
20%
24%
24%
15% 17%
13%
16%
13%14%
12%
11% 9%5%
13%9%
11%8%
5% 4% 1% 6% 3% 5% 4%
>=$150.0K
$100.0-149.9K
$75.0-$99.9K
$50.0-$74.9K
$35.0-$49.9K
$25.0-$34.9K
<$25.0K
“We make a huge number of assumptions and rely on anecdotal information. I’d like to know who really buys what in each account.”
-Marketing Executive
The value for marketing
The value for marketing Need to be able to understand
how customers and channels differ so they can allocate resources effectively
Can use consumer data to understand where consumers learn about books and what motivates them to purchase
Can follow book consumer trends to take advantage of shifts in formats and price points
Can use consumer data to confirm that cover designs, price points, and formats fit a particular channel or reader
The value for sales
“In order for any set of data to be actionable, you have to have a realistic picture of who you’re selling to. You’ve got to track those groups. Our sales guys find it very actionable. You can sit down with Wal-Mart and say ‘Here’s what’s going on with your customers.’”
-Vice President, Sales
The value of for sales
Need the deepest understanding of who shops at the accounts they cover and how that fits with the books they are trying to sell
Can use consumer data to support the sales process and have more productive discussions with retail buyers by increasing their confidence that a book is a good match for their customers
Can use consumer data to make the most of both long term and seasonal trends
Can use consumer profiles to tailor product lines or special promotions to the consumers who shop at a particular account
“When it comes to groups of consumers at a particular account, we look at three points: traffic, spending, and frequency of purchase. If 2-3 of these are on an upward trend, then your business is humming. If 2-3 of these are on a downward trend, then your business is tanking.”
62
Questions?