AAP Consumer Data Presentation, April 7, 2011

63
Present: New Ways to Understand Shifting Book Sales Channels April 7, 2011 &

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AAP Consumer Data Presentation

Transcript of AAP Consumer Data Presentation, April 7, 2011

Page 1: AAP Consumer Data Presentation, April 7, 2011

Present: New Ways to Understand Shifting Book

Sales ChannelsApril 7, 2011

&

Page 2: AAP Consumer Data Presentation, April 7, 2011

James Howitt–Director of Publishing Services, Bowker

James oversees the client relationship of a host of Bowker business intelligence services, including the PubTrack consumer research panel reaching annually over 40,000 ‘e’ and ‘p’ book consumers. In addition to being involved in the consumer research panel, he oversees sales data collection and analytics tools for the higher education and trade book markets for Bowker. Before his current position James served for Nielsen BookScan UK and US managing client relationships with Point of Sale data.

Ted Hill-President, THA ConsultingWith over 25 years experience in the publishing industry, Ted has launched dozens of new businesses and business initiatives. As a business development consultant with deep knowledge of the publishing and information industries Ted is a frequent speaker at industry events on the subject of publishing technology.

2

Presenters

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Agenda

Introduction to consumer data Background on the best practices Introduction to how book consumer data is

used sales and marketing professionals◦ Essential facts◦ Key trends◦ Diving deeper

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Planning Acquisitions

Development

Marketing Sales

Projecting Impacts of shifts in consumer behavior on product lines

Selecting comp titles based on reader demographics

Identifying lifetime value of customers

Identifying new opportunities

Projecting growth/decline based of categories based on demographic trends

Field Testing

Usability Studies

Tracking customers across different types of accountsUnderstanding

why titles were bought when

Understanding the reasons for purchase and purchase intent

Diving into book behavior

Identify price paid per unit

Market basket analysis

Industry Key Performance Indicators

Quarterly Consumer Landscape – demographics, book, channel, genre, behavior trends report

Consumer Bookshelves

Genre Profiles

Advertising and Social Media Book Awareness

Purchase Dynamics and Influences -Planned vs. Impulse

Purchase Metrics

Pricing Strategies

Channel Analysis -Market Share

Customer Value/Migration

Occasions/Shopping

Book Cover and Package Design - Cover Image Testing - Page Layout Testing - Product DesignUsability Studies - Web Testing - App Testing - Page Flip Technology - Product Usability

Campaign Level Custom Projects

Book Lover Panels

Customer Satisfaction

Author Profiles

Character Profiles

Series Profiles

BISG’s Consumer Attitudes Toward E-book Reading Study

BISG’s Student Attitudes Toward Content in Higher Education Study

Sta

nd

ard

R

ep

orts

Cu

sto

m

Rep

orts

All Custom Reports

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Projecting Impacts of shifts in consumer behavior on product lines

Selecting comp titles based on reader demographics

Identifying lifetime value of customers

Identifying new opportunities

Projecting growth/decline based of categories based on demographic trends

Field Testing

Usability Studies

Tracking customers across different types of accountsUnderstanding

why titles were bought when

Understanding the reasons for purchase and purchase intent

Diving into book behavior

Identify price paid per unit

Market basket analysis

Industry Key Performance IndicatorsQuarterly Consumer Landscape – demographics, book, channel, genre, behavior trends report

Consumer Bookshelves

Genre Profiles

Advertising and Social Media Book AwarenessPurchase Dynamics and Influences -Planned vs. Impulse

Purchase Metrics

Pricing Strategies

Channel Analysis -Market Share

Customer Value/Migration

Occasions/Shopping

Book Cover and Package Design - Cover Image Testing - Page Layout Testing - Product DesignUsability Studies - Web Testing - App Testing - Page Flip Technology - Product Usability

Campaign Level Custom Projects

Book Lover Panels

Customer Satisfaction

Author Profiles

Character Profiles

Series Profiles

BISG’s Consumer Attitudes Toward E-book Reading Study

BISG’s Student Attitudes Toward Content in Higher Education Study

Sta

nd

ard

R

ep

orts

Cu

sto

m

Rep

orts

All Custom Reports

Planning Acquisitions

DevelopmentMarketin

g Sales

Usin

g

Con

su

mer

Data

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Balancing the art and science of publishing

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“In a world awash in data, we need to know what’s essential and what’s a distraction.”

-Publishing Executive

Background on the best practices

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2010 Annual Consumer Sample & Methodology

45,000 US book buyers annually 6,000 US book buyers per month (starting Jan 2011) Selected according to Age, Gender, Income, Household size,

and location balanced to US Census Representing an annual view of 250,000 book purchases and

90,000 shopping occasions All purchases collected at ISBN level using Bowker’s Books in

Print Web Services Online survey conducted monthly Ages 13 & older 97% confidence rating 2.5% margin of error

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Began project in fall of 2009 Goal was to look at how

consumer data is used throughout the organization

Conducted interviews with executives in different functional areas (editorial, sales, marketing, etc.)

White paper released April 2010

A lot’s changed since then!

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Background on the best practices

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Introduction to consumer data New technologies are changing traditional

publishing practices

Consumer data is rapidly becoming an essential tool for all stages of the publishing process

Reveals who buys books and why they choose the titles they buy

It’s utility varies depending on the job and business goals of the person using it

The value comes from knowing the essential facts following key trends, and diving deeper into the data to solve specific business problems

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Consumer data validates & provides context

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Using book consumer data

Understand the essential facts about book consumers

Follow key trends in how they are changing who and what they buy

Know how and when to dive deeper into the data to solve business problems

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“We keep our finger on the pulse with POS data. Then we use consumer data to tell us who’s buying what and why?”

-Data Analyst

Understand the essential facts

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Understand the essential factsDemographics: Who buys and reads different kinds of books?

How old are they? What gender? How much do they earn? Where do they learn about books?

Categories & Formats:

What do they buy? Which genres or subject areas? What formats? Which price points?

Market Channels:

Where do they buy? How often do they shop there? How much do they spend?

Motivation: Why do they buy? As an impulse? As a gift? Where do they learn about books? Why do they choose the titles they ultimately purchase?

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Essential facts for marketing How channel customer demographics, and

motivations to buy differ from one genre or category to another and from one account to another

How average selling price and format preferences for books differ from one channel to another

Factors that influence purchase decisions or where different demographic groups learn about new titles

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Essential facts for sales

How the demographic profile of the consumer who buys a book at Target differs from the typical Wal-Mart consumer or from the consumers at one of the large book chains

For which genres and categories is in-store display most important

The best times of year to sell to a particular group of consumers

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Who is the graphic novel buyer?Full Year 2010 – Books Purchased

All Boo

ks

Adult

Fict

ion

Graph

ic Nov

els

Fant

asy

Horro

r

Humor

Sci-F

i0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

35% 32%

52%38%

46%

24%

63%

65% 68%

48%62%

54%

76%

37%

FemalesMales

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Who is the graphic novel buyer?Full Year 2010 – Books Purchased

All Boo

ks

Adult

Fict

ion

Graph

ic Nov

els

Fant

asy

Horro

r

Humor

Sci-F

i0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

6% 4%11% 5% 7% 5% 7%

21%17%

39%

22% 20%18% 14%

25%

21%

34%

33% 33%

25% 25%

18%

18%

10%

19% 19%

18% 22%

15%

20%

4%

14% 13%

16%19%

14% 19%

3% 7% 7%18%

12%

65+ Years

55-64 Years

45-54 Years

30-44 Years

18-29 Years

13-17 Years

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Who is the graphic novel buyer?Full Year 2010 – Books Purchased

All Boo

ks

Adult

Fict

ion

Graph

ic Nov

els

Fant

asy

Horro

r

Humor

Sci-F

i0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

18% 17%28%

20% 22% 17% 22%

12% 13%

23%

17% 18%

9%10%

16% 16%

14%

18% 16%

16%16%

23% 23%

16%

20% 21%

22%

26%

15% 14%

10%13% 12%

19%12%

11% 11%6% 9% 9%

13%11%

5% 5% 3% 3% 3% 5% 2%

>=$150.0K

$100.0-149.9K

$75.0-$99.9K

$50.0-$74.9K

$35.0-$49.9K

$25.0-$34.9K

<$25.0K

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Where are they shopping? Full Year 2010 – Books Purchased

Book

Clubs

Book

Fairs

E-Com

mer

ce

All Oth

er D

TC

Lg C

hain

Non-T

rad.

Bks

trs

Christ

ian

Bkstrs

Inde

pend

ent B

kstrs

Discou

nt C

lose

out

Drug

Mas

s Mer

chan

dise

rs

Resal

e Th

rift

Supe

rmar

ket &

Gro

cery

War

ehou

se C

lubs

All Oth

er R

etai

l Sto

res

All Oth

er C

hann

els

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

24%

37%

2%

9%

3%

46%

30%

7%5%

1%

Graphic Novels 2009 Graphic Novels 2010

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What formats are they buying? Full Year 2010 – Books Purchased

All Books

Adult Fiction

Graphic Novels

Fantasy Horror Humor Sci-Fi0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

18%

33%

5%

36%26%

7%

46%

35%

30%75%

28%

23%

21%

22%

34% 29%

17%

28%

43%

62%

23%

1% 1%0%

1% 1%1% 1%

4% 6% 2% 6% 5% 8% 7%

E-Book

Audio

Hardcover

Trade Paperback

Mass Market Paperback

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Why do they purchase? Full Year 2010 – Books Purchased

Ranking of Units 2010All Adult Fiction

Graphic Novels Humor Sci-Fi

Like This Series 13% 16% 16% 18%

Like Character 7% 14% 13% 8%

Like Author 22% 13% 23% 19%

Liked Topic/Subject 10% 12% 8% 13%

Cover Art 3% 8% 1% 3%

Price 7% 6% 6% 6%

Looked Thru Book, And Liked It 5% 4% 4% 4%

Special Offer/Price 4% 4% 4% 4%

Movie/TV Show Based On Book 2% 4% 0% 3%

Intrigued By Book Title 5% 3% 5% 4%

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How do they become aware? Full Year 2010 – Books Purchased

Ranking of Units 2010All Adult Fiction

Graphic Novels Humor Sci-Fi

Part of a series 15% 30% 19% 26%

Like this author 34% 24% 36% 25%

Other Awareness 7% 7% 6% 9%

In-Store Display/On Shelf/Spinning Rack 10% 7% 6% 9%

Friend/Relative Recommend 6% 5% 6% 4%

Online - Forum, Blog, Google 1% 4% 1% 2%Online - Retailer Recommend (e.g., Amazon.com, B&N.com) 2% 3% 3% 3%

Online - Book Review 3% 3% 3% 4%

In-Store Sales Clerk 1% 2% 1% 2%

Online - Publisher's Website 1% 2% 1% 2%

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How impulsive are fiction buyers? Full Year 2010 – Books Purchased

Adult Fic-tion

Graphic Novels

Humor Sci-Fi0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

25%

40%32% 27%

19%

31%

22%23%

33%

15%

24% 31%

22%14%

22% 19%Impulse Purchase

Plan A Book At Specific Time, But Not Specific Bk

Plan This Specific Book, But Not Specific Time

Plan This Specific Book At That Specific Time

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Let’s break if we want to

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“We’ve always assume that trade paperbacks are bought by Gen Xers and Gen Ys because they’re cheaper, but that’s just not the case anymore.”

-Marketing Director

Follow key trends

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Follow key trends Are the readers and buyers

of your books changing as a group?

Will there be more or fewer of them in the future?

Are they changing how and where they buy their books?

Will it be easier or harder to reach them in the future?

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Key trends for marketing Both seasonal and long term sales trends Pricing trends--shifts in average selling

price, frequency of purchase, purchases per shopping trip, and market baskets

All trends related to where consumers learn about books and authors

All trends related to who learns about books online (social media, etc.)

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Key trends for sales Demographic trends for book consumer and

sales channels Pricing trends for different formats and

genres Shifts in frequency of shopping, purchases

per visit or size of the average market basket Seasonal and regional trends Shifts to buying and reading online for

different categories

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How much are consumers paying for young adult titles?

Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 20090.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

2.3%

3.3%

3.8%

3.1%

2.0%

3.7%

2.8%2.7%

UnitsUnit TrendDollarsDollar Trend

$11.11$9.08

$9.57

$8.96

41

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6%

5%6%

7%

5%6%

7%6%

5%

7%6%

8% 9%8% 8%

10%10%11%11%

13%13%

16%

2%3% 3%

2% 2% 3%2%

3%2%

3%4% 4% 4% 3%

4% 4% 5%5% 5%

7%

9%

13%

% read ebooks (daily/weekly) est. % ebooks buyers

Ebook buyer trends

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How are those trends changing?

Qtr 1 2009

Qtr 2 2009

Qtr 3 2009

Qtr 4 2009

Qtr 1 2010

Qtr 2 2010

Qtr 3 2010

Qtr 4 2010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Gender/Males

Gender/Females

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Online influence vs. traditional print/media

13 - 29

Years

Online Print/Media

30 - 55

Years

Online Print/Media

55 - Older

Online Print/Media

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

44Bowker PubTrack™ Consumer - © 2010

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“I’d like to know if some readers are just more profitable than others.”

-Publisher

Know when & how to dive deeper

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Know when & how to dive deeper Should we publish more or fewer titles in a

category or format? How can we allocate our marketing

resources to get the most sales? Are we pricing our books appropriately? Are there ways we can change our

publishing strategy to increase revenue or reduce returns?

What’s the best cover image, web design, ad copy, or shelf placement for a title?

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The bulls eye pattern of influence

child

parent

friend, relativeteacher, librarian

Local booksellerfavorite author

websites, advertising

mass media, the world

Influence declines significantly with each layer

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Book

Clubs

Book

Fairs

E-Com

mer

ce

All Oth

er D

TC

Lg C

hain

Non-T

rad

Bkstrs

Christ

ian

Bkstrs

Inde

pend

ent B

kstrs

Discou

nt/C

lose

out

Drug

Mass M

erch

andi

sers

Resal

e/Th

rift

Supe

rmar

ket &

Gro

cery

War

ehou

se C

lubs

All Oth

er R

etai

l Sto

res

All Oth

er C

hann

els

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

8%

4%

20%

1%

28%

2% 2%

4%3%

1%

11%

3%2% 2%

4%

6%

Year 2009 Year 2010

Where are children’s books purchased? Full year 2010

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Libraries dominate as a source for books for ages 7 to12

other online retailer (B&N.com, Borders.com, etc.)

Supermarket

Books-a-Million bookstore

Half-Price Books

other Big Box store (Target, Costco, etc.)

Independent / local Bookshop

Used bookstore

Swap them among friends

Garage sale/sidewalk sale/secondhabd shop

Borders bookstore

Amazon.com

WalMart or Sams Club

Barnes & Noble bookstore

I/We buy them for them

Public Library

School Library

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

3%

3%

5%

5%

6%

6%

12%

12%

17%

19%

21%

22%

28%

40%

64%

68%

Where do they get the books they read for fun?

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Who buys specific fiction genres? Gender of fiction sub-genres based on units in Q4 10

Total Market Fiction Genfiction Mistery Espionnage YA Juvenile 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

37% 35% 32% 31%42%

30% 26%

62% 65% 68% 69%58%

70% 74%

Females

Males

Mystery Espionage

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Who buys specific fiction genres? Age of fiction sub-genres based on units in Q4 10

Total Market

Fiction Genfiction Mistery Espionnage YA Juvenile 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

12% 10% 9% 5% 6%

32% 32%

24%20% 20%

14% 13%

25%30%23%

21% 18%

18% 18%

23%23%27%

30% 29%

33% 34%

16%12%14% 20% 23%

30% 29%

4% 2%

Matures (Born Before 1948)

Baby Boomers (Born 1948-1966)

Gen X (Born 1967-1978)

Gen Y (Born 1979-1989)

Gen Z (Born After 1990)

Mystery Espionage

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Who buys specific fiction genres? Income of fiction sub-genres based on units in Q4 10

Total Market Fiction General Fiction Mystery Espionnage YA0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

17% 17% 16% 14% 13% 17%

12% 12% 11% 12% 11%11%

16% 17% 18% 18% 17% 10%

22% 23% 22% 26% 26%21%

15% 14% 14% 15%15%

22%

11% 11% 13% 10% 12% 15%

5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 4%

>=$150.0K

$100.0-149.9K

$75.0-$99.9K

$50.0-$74.9K

$35.0-$49.9K

$25.0-$34.9K

<$25.0K

Mystery Espionage

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Where do people shop? Gender by outlet based on units in Q4 10

Total Market

Book Clubs

Amazon

B&N

Borders

Books Millio

n

Wal-M

art

Target

Kmart

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

37% 36% 38% 46% 43% 37%28% 22% 23%

63% 64% 62% 54% 57% 63%72% 78% 77%

Females

Males

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Where do people shop? Age by outlet based on units in Q4 10

Total Marke

t

Book Clubs

Amazon

B&N

Borders

Books M

illion

Wal-M

art

Targ

et

Kmart

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

8% 7% 6%13% 11% 14% 11% 5% 8%

20% 22% 21%23%

19% 18% 23%21% 20%

20% 19% 19%

24%

21% 19% 21%27%

17%

33% 29% 35%

26%36% 33% 28% 30% 47%

18% 23% 18% 14% 13% 16% 19% 18%9%

Matures (Born Before 1948)

Baby Boomers (Born 1948-1966)

Gen X (Born 1967-1978)

Gen Y (Born 1979-1989)

Gen Z (Born After 1990)

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Where do people shop? Income by outlet based on units in Q4 10

Total Market Book Clubs Amazon B&N Borders Books Million Wal-Mart Target Kmart 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

17%23%

15% 14% 12%16%

21%14%

23%

12%

13%

11% 10%10%

12%

21%

13%

15%

16%

23%

17%15%

13%

16%

21%

15%

11%

22%

19%

21%21%

24%

26%

22%

25%

33%

15%

10%

17%19% 19%

20%

10%

19%

11%11%9%

13% 13% 17%

7%4%

8%

5%5% 3%7% 8% 5% 3% 1%

6%2%

>=$150.0K

$100.0-149.9K

$75.0-$99.9K

$50.0-$74.9K

$35.0-$49.9K

$25.0-$34.9K

<$25.0K

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How do my genres match the outlets that people shop at?

All Channels Target Wal-MartEspionage Fantasy Mystery Romance0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

18% 14%21%

14%20%

15% 20%

12%9%

18%

11%

17%

13%15%

16%

17%

20%

16%

18%

17%

18%

23%29%

22%

25%

20%

24%

24%

15% 17%

13%

16%

13%14%

12%

11% 9%5%

13%9%

11%8%

5% 4% 1% 6% 3% 5% 4%

>=$150.0K

$100.0-149.9K

$75.0-$99.9K

$50.0-$74.9K

$35.0-$49.9K

$25.0-$34.9K

<$25.0K

Page 57: AAP Consumer Data Presentation, April 7, 2011

“We make a huge number of assumptions and rely on anecdotal information. I’d like to know who really buys what in each account.”

-Marketing Executive

The value for marketing

Page 58: AAP Consumer Data Presentation, April 7, 2011

The value for marketing Need to be able to understand

how customers and channels differ so they can allocate resources effectively

Can use consumer data to understand where consumers learn about books and what motivates them to purchase

Can follow book consumer trends to take advantage of shifts in formats and price points

Can use consumer data to confirm that cover designs, price points, and formats fit a particular channel or reader

Page 59: AAP Consumer Data Presentation, April 7, 2011

The value for sales

“In order for any set of data to be actionable, you have to have a realistic picture of who you’re selling to. You’ve got to track those groups. Our sales guys find it very actionable. You can sit down with Wal-Mart and say ‘Here’s what’s going on with your customers.’”

-Vice President, Sales

Page 60: AAP Consumer Data Presentation, April 7, 2011

The value of for sales

Need the deepest understanding of who shops at the accounts they cover and how that fits with the books they are trying to sell

Can use consumer data to support the sales process and have more productive discussions with retail buyers by increasing their confidence that a book is a good match for their customers

Can use consumer data to make the most of both long term and seasonal trends

Can use consumer profiles to tailor product lines or special promotions to the consumers who shop at a particular account

Page 61: AAP Consumer Data Presentation, April 7, 2011

“When it comes to groups of consumers at a particular account, we look at three points: traffic, spending, and frequency of purchase. If 2-3 of these are on an upward trend, then your business is humming. If 2-3 of these are on a downward trend, then your business is tanking.”

Page 62: AAP Consumer Data Presentation, April 7, 2011

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Questions?

Page 63: AAP Consumer Data Presentation, April 7, 2011

Thank you!

@bookbuyrinsight

[email protected]