AA

AC

Me

eti

ng

: O

cto

be

r 12

, 20

05 ALMA Update:

October 2004-October 2005

Bob DickmanALMA Staff Associate

Division of Astronomical Sciences

AA

AC

Me

eti

ng

: O

cto

be

r 12

, 20

05

Events Reviewed

• Antenna procurement

• Rebaselining

• Cost Review

• Near Future

AA

AC

Me

eti

ng

: O

cto

be

r 12

, 20

05 Rebaselining

• Fall 2004: Rebaselining begins March 2002 project baseline antedates formal project

agreements and Japanese participation

• September 2005: “Final” re-baseline cost estimate (JAO) Assumptions

Common antenna type, ESO maintains procurement schedule, and 50-element array starting point

Increase in cost: Antennas Other areas

List of possible changes/descopes/scrubs NSF working hard to buttress overruns: descopes,

considering deferrable work, additional partnerships

• November 2005 goal: New Project Baseline (Scope, Cost and Schedule) in place

AA

AC

Me

eti

ng

: O

cto

be

r 12

, 20

05 Rebaselining: Cost Escalation Sources

• Antennas Delay for coordinated procurement Commodity price increases: oil, steel, nickel

• Site Booming Chilean economy Dollar/peso exchange rates

• Management Joint ALMA Office, including Project Management &

Control System (PMCS) Costs of partnership

• Systems Engineering and Integration Complexity of project

• Other (e.g., missing scope, etc.)

AA

AC

Me

eti

ng

: O

cto

be

r 12

, 20

05 Cost Review

• Lehman-style cost review

• Review requested by ALMA Board Report will be passed on to NSF and ESO Council

• 4 days: October 13-16, 2005

• Detailed assessment of Cost Schedule Management Initial assessment of integrating Japan Enhanced ALMA;

early operations; operations

• Panel: Chair: Steve Beckwith Vice-Chair: Thijs de Graauw 20-member panel

7 members each nominated by NA and ESO 4 members nominated by Japan 2 members nominated by Chile

• Report timed to fit needs of ALMA Board, NSF

AA

AC

Me

eti

ng

: O

cto

be

r 12

, 20

05 Antenna Procurement: I

• Parallel procurement required by different legal regimes and practices of partners

• Each partner provides half the total number of antennas

• Highly coordinated, based on purchase of two prototypes

• Goal is manufacture of a single design

• Start: December 2003. Bumps in the road: Prototype performance:

Late questions about (mainly) one prototype arose Summer-Fall 2004

Extended testing program given to JAO; settled in early 2005 (both prototypes are excellent)

Coordinated procurement broke down in June 2005 with the interruption of the ESO procurement

AA

AC

Me

eti

ng

: O

cto

be

r 12

, 20

05 Antenna Procurement: II

• In June 2005, ALMA Board urged NSF/AUI/NRAO to proceed with a unilateral NA procurement

• This approach was supported by ESO Council

• NRAO signed antenna contract July 11, 2005

• Significantly higher costs than even 1 year earlier: Commodity cost increases Assume all NRE (recoverable) Loss of quantity discount (recoverable)

AA

AC

Me

eti

ng

: O

cto

be

r 12

, 20

05 Antenna Procurement: III

• ESO making rapid progress on procurement

NSF action has accelerated process On schedule to complete by end of October ESO Council endorsed a 50-element array

• Both prototype designs still in the running in Europe

AA

AC

Me

eti

ng

: O

cto

be

r 12

, 20

05

Immediate Future: Milestones

• ALMA Cost review: October 13-16

• ALMA Board acts on ESO antenna choice: November 1

• NSF-USG decision process to select and authorize new baseline: October 2005 - March 2006

• New Baseline put in place

AA

AC

Me

eti

ng

: O

cto

be

r 12

, 20

05

Challenges

• Operations Costs

• U.S. Cost increase Non-Defense

discretionary budgetary climate