เสวนา Morning Talk ครั้งที่...
Transcript of เสวนา Morning Talk ครั้งที่...
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โดย ดร.อมรเทพ จาวะลา
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เรือ่ง: ผลกระทบคา่เงินบาทต่ออตุสาหกรรมไทย
เสวนา Morning Talk ครัง้ท่ี 4
ภายใต ้โครงการ Intelligence Unit ปี 2562
วนัองัคารท่ี 24 กนัยายน 2562
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สงครามการค้าไม่จบง่ายๆ
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การส่งออกแย่แทบทุกตลาด
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*Domestic exports; non-oil
Source: CEIC data
-0.5
-8.6
-6.0
-8.6
-4.4
-1.3
-12.8
-2.9
6.7
-3.5-4.1
-7.0
-2.3
-5.1 -5.1
1.3
3.0
-2.4
8.7
-0.5
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
China Indonesia Japan South Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore* Thailand Vietnam Taiwan
H1/2019: Import/export growth (USD term)
Export H1/2019 Import H1/2019
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ตลาดแย่ หรือโลกก าลงัเปลีย่น
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เราก้าวทนัเทคโนโลยหีรือไม่
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เงนิบาทแข็งค่าเทยีบดอลลาร์สหรัฐ และสกลุส าคญัอ่ืนๆ...แต่บาทไม่ใช่เพิง่จะมาแข็งค่า
FX(%YTD*)
*As of September 9, 2019
Source: Bloomberg
FX(%change from 12 Sep 2008*)
Source: Bloomberg
Country SpotThai Baht THB 13.2
Singapore Dollar SGD 3.9
Taiwanese Dollar TWD 2.6
Hong Kong Dollar HKD -0.5
Chinese Renminbi CNY -4.0
South Korean Won KRW -7.1
Philippine Peso PHP -9.6
Peruvian Sol PEN -10.8
Malaysian Ringgit MYR -17.4
Chilean Peso CLP -25.6
Indonesian Rupiah IDR -32.6
Indian Rupee INR -36.1
Hungarian Forint HUF -44.2
Mexican Peso MXN -45.8
Russian Ruble RUB -61.1
Turkish Lira TRY -78.4
Argentine Peso ARS -94.5
%change
*As of September 9, 2019
Country
Thai Baht THB 6.2
Russian Ruble RUB 6.0
Indonesian Rupiah IDR 2.2
Philippine Peso PHP 1.5
Peruvian Sol PEN 1.0
Mexican Peso MXN 0.6
Hong Kong Dollar HKD -0.1
Malaysian Ringgit MYR -1.1
Singapore Dollar SGD -1.3
Taiwanese Dollar TWD -1.6
Chilean Peso CLP -2.6
Indian Rupee INR -2.7
Chinese Renminbi CNY -3.5
South Korean Won KRW -6.3
Hungarian Forint HUF -6.4
Turkish Lira TRY -7.4
Argentine Peso ARS -32.5
%ytd
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USD/THB Outlook 2019
30.00
- US rate cuts
- Thai rate on hold
- Trade war
- Tourism rebounds
- Political stability
- Oil prices drop
33.00
- Maintaining US rate
- Thai rate cuts
- No trade war
- Tourist arrivals drop
- Political instability
- Oil prices jump up
เงนิบาทจะไปทางไหน
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บาทแข็งมาจากปัจจบัต่างประเทศ...ระวงักระแสการเงนิโลกเปลีย่นทิศเหมือนปี 2013
8
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
Sep/08 Sep/09 Sep/10 Sep/11 Sep/12 Sep/13 Sep/14 Sep/15 Sep/16 Sep/17 Sep/18
FX (USD/THB)
Source: Bloomberg
USD/THB
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ถ้าเศรษฐกจิโลกด ีต่อให้บาทแข็งกส่็งออก แต่ถ้าแย่ ต่อให้บาทอ่อนกส่็งไม่ออก
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Current Account Balance by Categories
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Trade Balance Services Balances Primary Income Secondary Income5 Years (2014-2018)
Million USD
Source: BOT
Current Account Balance vs FX(USD/THB inverted)
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
Sep
-08
Dec
-08
Mar
-09
Jun
-09
Sep
-09
Dec
-09
Mar
-10
Jun
-10
Sep
-10
Dec
-10
Mar
-11
Jun
-11
Sep
-11
Dec
-11
Mar
-12
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun
-13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun
-15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Sep
-17
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Sep
-18
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
Jun
-19
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
Current Account :Right FX(USD/THB):Left
USD/THBMil.USD
การเกนิดุลบัญชีเดนิสะพดัสูง มผีลให้บาทแข็ง
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เงนิร้อนท าบาทแข็ง...แต่อาจจะไม่ใช่แล้ว
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แล้วท าไมเกนิดุล...กเ็พราะเราหยุดลงทุน
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𝑌 = 𝐶 + 𝐼 + 𝐺 + 𝑥 −𝑚
𝑌 = 𝐶 + 𝐺 + 𝑆
𝐶 + 𝐼 + 𝐺 + 𝑥 −𝑚
(1)
(2)
= 𝐶 + 𝐺 + 𝑆
𝑥 −𝑚 = 𝑆 − 𝐼
Current Account Balance = Saving − Investment gap
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เศรษฐกจิไทยเน้นภาคต่างประเทศ การลงทุนต ่า ขณะทีจ่ีนเขาปรับโครงสร้างกนัแล้ว
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
19
931
994
19
951
996
19
971
998
19
992
000
20
012
002
20
032
004
20
052
006
20
072
008
20
092
010
20
112
012
20
132
014
20
152
016
20
172
018
Exports/GDP Consumption/GDP GFCF/GDP
Share of Exports, Private Consumption, and Investment to GDP (%)
Thailand China
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Exports/GDP Consumption/GDP GFCF/GDP
Source: CEIC Data Source: CEIC Data
% %
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*exclude interbankSource: HAVER
สินเช่ือเร่ิมแผ่ว แต่กด็กีว่าในช่วง 5 ปีก่อน
1.82.5 2.4
-6.3
4.8
2.2 2.0
0.6
1.72.6 2.8
8.3
9.3
2.2 2.2
1.7
1.3 1.61.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.1
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Loan* Growth to GDP Growth (nominal term)
Loan Growth: Left GDP Growth (current prices): Left Loan growth /GDP growth (times)
%,yoytimes
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เม่ือบาทแข็งค่า ธุรกจิใดโดนผลกระทบบ้าง
Impacts of Thai baht appreciation on businesses/industries
Positive
High import content and mainly on the domestic market▪ Steel products▪ Animal feed▪ Industrial machinery especially
construction business▪ Chemical fertilizers and pesticide▪ Medical instrument
Lower service cost due to baht appreciation, and mainly on the domestic market▪ Transport services▪ Oil stations
Slight-Moderate
Relatively high-tech products, high qualities and high import content▪ Printed circuit boards▪ Integrated circuits▪ Hard disk driveHigh import content and moderate pricing power (moderate-high margin)▪ Canned seafood (tuna)- exporters▪ JewelryLow import content and moderate pricing power (moderate-high margin)▪ Processed chicken/Sugar▪ Cassava products▪ Food flavoring and sauces▪ Canned and processed vegetable/fruit juices▪ Appliance products▪ Polymers
SevereLow import content, high competition (low margin)▪ Rice exporters (inc. Rice mills)▪ Rubber smoked sheet▪ Block rubber▪ Rubber gloves(low technology/made from
natural rubber)Labor-intensive, high competition (low margin)▪ Frozen shrimp/ Frozen sea food▪ Leather & garment products (low-end
market)▪ Furniture/toys▪ Footwear
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Lower income of consumers / employees in major industries
- Primary rubber products- Electronic products- Hotel business - etc
Other Impacts (excluding direct export and service)
Businesses/Consumers/entrepreneurs/investment have clearly affected
Severely impacts on small and medium-sized exporters
- Rice products - Primary rubber products - Frozen shrimps/ frozen fish- Animal or vegetable fats and oils- Beauty or make up preparations, soap and preparations for the
care of skin - Furniture
- Bus service business and travel servicesRelated tourism business (Non-hotel)
Investments- Especially investment in the production of export products that
use domestic raw materials at a medium - high level
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โดยเฉพาะม่ือบาทแข็งเทยีบกบัเงนิหยวน
Decreasing in The Value of Funds Transferred for Condominium Purchases, especially China (43% of total fund transferred)
Note: The value of funds transferred for condominium purchases by non-residents is estimated from (1) the amount of foreign currencies sold for down payments or purchases of condominiums and (2) the amount of funds withdrawn from non-residents baht-denominated accounts for condominium purchases. Source: Bank of Thailand.
Q1/19
-16.3% (yoy)
Yuan Weakening Against the Baht, Trade War and Chinese Economic Slowdown Hamper Thai Exports
Yuan Weakening Against the Baht More Than Other Country (%Change LCY/RMB)
Source: Bloomberg, data as of September 10, 2019 (off-shore)
% YTD
Thailand Would Gain More Chinese Tourist due to Hong Kong Protest but Devalued Yuan is The Threat
Thai Top 10 Export Goods to China
High
Medium - Low
Rubber Product Chemical
Rubber Cassava Wood
(High Export Share to China and Falling Export in 1H2019)
Integrated Circuit Computer and part
Fruit
Plastic Resin Refine fuel
Chinese Tourist Outbound (m. persons)
- 4.9%
- 3.3%
11.7%
29.1%
Impact on hotel in major destination
Source: MOTS and CEIC
Source: MOC and Assessment by Research
43%
16.4%
22.3%
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โอกาสการลงทุนของไทย
Construction Materials Real Estate
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Thank
YOU
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Important Notice
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