A3- SIGNS OF THE TIMES Shivani Jain

Sustainable Architecture of 2050 contextualized in Los Angeles.

Which WBCSD: Low Carbon Future- Improvements in Energy that contributes to the development of Smart Homes- fully sustainable Architecture.

(Economic growth has been decoupled from ecosystem destruction and material consumption, and re-coupled to sustainable economic development and meeting needs- Vision 2050 Poster)- visualized from the perspective of Sustainable Architecture Advancements and how they will be in effect in 2050.

In this 2050 scenario, housing is moving towards becoming fully sustainable and this is through the introduction of new materials and highly developed systems that will help realize the vision of smart homes. This is important because it will present the ideal of a zero energy housing making it a reality. The obsession with sustainable architecture and the signs of larger developed systems today make this a possible and is a potential for the future. Buildings become self-sustainable using a combination of energy sources, efficiency improvements, and conservation. Using the renewable energy sources they significantly reduce dependence on fossil fuels thereby reducing the carbon footprint of the buildings.

How it would play out in places like Southern California?

Buildings will use solar photovoltaic and solar thermal for most of the energy requirements during the daytime with battery backup and hot water backup for non-solar hours. These energy sources would be supplemented by geothermal for non-peak electricity generation and renewable natural gas produced by anaerobic digestion of human waste including the food waste. The buildings will also become more efficient using tunable windows that allow light and heat to come in during the winter and only light to come in during the summer. The buildings would be better insulated and provide natural ventilation as much as possible to reduce the heating and cooling demands. The buildings could also have vertical farming and indoor parks to further improve the sustainability.

Why the elements of some of these suggestions currently exist they have not been practiced at the building level or the community level to make big difference in their carbon footprint. Also these elements have to be practiced as a group to approach the ideal of no external energy use. For an approach like this to work lot of research has to be done to make the systems affordable at the building or the community level. Federal and state resources would have to be used for development and incentives would have to be provided for people to adapt these practices.

Solar Cells to Generate Electricity as well as Heat: Currently solar cells are used only to generate electricity and concentrating mirrors are used to generate heat. Development of solar cells that can generate both electricity and heat and provide two different energy sources would be extremely useful in many places in the country especially Southern California and in 2050 will provide low energy efficiency to households and be able

to operate on low cost and low capital costs. Solar systems will be extremely sophisticated and in 2050. DOE states that a quarter of the earths energy needs can be fulfilled by solar energy.

Energy Storage: Energy storage would be needed in the form of batteries or hot water system to store energy during off-peak hours. Improvements in these systems are urgently needed to improve the reliability of solar energy. At the present stage of development the major applications for utilizing solar thermal energy is for heating water and buildings. Collectors used are from flat-plate solar technologies. In concentrating collectors the solar energy collected is greater than the absorber area. The solar thermal power plants use the sun’s rays to heat a fluid producing steam. The steam Is converted to mechanical energy and into electricity from a conventional generator coupled to the turbin. Solar thermal power generation provides heat energy for steam production. Currently there are types of solar-thermal power systems in use or under development: the solar dis a dn parabolic trough. The parabolic trough is the most advanced of these systems with technology used in California on a relatively large scale. Australia has development as well.

http://www.solarschools.net/resources/stuff/solar_thermal.aspx

Geothermal to generate electricity when the sun is not shining: Geothermal uses the heat inside the ground to generate electricity any time. Geothermal system can be sized to provide energy during off hours thereby reducing the system cost. It becomes a supplementary energy source when the sun is not shining.

Building Glass that is Tunable: By applying a voltage we should be able to change characteristics of building glass- in the summer you want the light to come into the building but no heat and in the winter you want both the light and heat to come in. It should be possible to do this with tunable coatings.

Natural Ventilation: Houses should be naturally ventilated so that you have less air conditioning demand and you would reduce heating and cooling requirements and buildings becoming self-sustainable

Vertical Farming: A current proposal for re-envisioning skyscrapers in a sustainable and self-sufficient way. The EDITT tower being constructed in Singapore is representative of vertical farming approaches today. With the development of new technologies we can understand these statements:

“it has great potential to supply enough food in a sustainable fashion to comfortably feed all of humankind for the foreseeable future,' he said.

'All of this may sound too good to be true but these are realistic and achievable goals, given the full development of a few new technologies. 'High-rise food-producing buildings will succeed only if they function by mimicking ecological process. 'Most important, there must be strong, government-supported economic incentives to the private sector, as well as to universities and local government to develop the concept,' the professor said.” By 2050 we will not only be able to provide food for the larger population, but will also be able to apply vertical farming technologies to high rise apartment buildings and homes to feed families. -http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1061036/Blue-sky-thinking-The-skyscraper-farms-feeding-millions-2050.html

Signs today in Los Angeles

Signs that show that we're heading toward this future:

· Anaerobic Digestion: is happening now at a larger scale (landfills, dairies,supermarkets) but not at the individual building level/community level. In Los Angeles-

“Ralphs, one of the oldest and largest supermarket chains on the West Coast in the Compton distribution center that the company shares with its fellow Kroger Co. subsidiary Food 4 Less, organic matter otherwise destined for a landfill is rerouted instead into the facility's energy grid. Though many grocery stores have tried to cut down on food waste and experiment with alternative energy, Kroger says it's the first supermarket company in the country to do both simultaneously.

The technology that helps transform moldy chicken and stale bread into clean electricity is known as an anaerobic digester system. At the 59-acre Compton site, which serves 359 Southern California stores, more than 100 onlookers gathered Wednesday to watch the system go to work.

Several chest-high trash bins containing a feast of limp waffles, wilting flowers, bruised mangoes and plastic-wrapped steak sat in an airy space laced with piping. Stores send food unable to be donated or sold to the facility, where it is dumped into a massive grinder — cardboard and plastic packaging included.”

In 2050, we can realize anaerobic digestion within the households. Converting our daily waste into energy.

http://articles.latimes.com/2013/may/15/business/la-fi-ralphs-energy-20130516

· Passive Housing is occurring already- window glasses that allow only light to come in. It should be possible to develop window glasses that are tunable that can allow light and heat to come during the winter-time.

· Vertical Farming is currently being proposed and executed.

The technology to construct vertical farms currently exists. Developers and local governments in the following cities have expressed serious interest in establishing a vertical farm: Incheon (South Korea), Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates), and Dongtan(China),[36] New York City, Portland, Ore., Los Angeles, Las Vegas,[37] Seattle, Surrey, B.C., Toronto, Paris, Bangalore, Dubai, Shanghai and Beijing. The Illinois Institute of Technology is now crafting a detailed plan for Chicago. It is suggested that prototype versions of vertical farms should be created first, possibly at large universities interested in the research of vertical farms, in order to prevent failures such as the Biosphere 2project in Oracle, Arizona.[38] - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vertical_farming

“Currently pending construction in Singapore, the EDITT Tower will be a paragon of “Ecological Design In The Tropics”. Designed by TR Hamzah & Yeang and sponsored by the National University of Singapore, the 26-story high-rise will boast photovoltaic panels, natural ventilation, and a biogas generation plant all wrapped within an insulating living wall that covers half of its surface area. The verdant skyscraper was designed to increase its location’s bio-diversity and rehabilitate the local ecosystem in Singapore’s ‘zeroculture’ metropolis. Approximately half of the surface area of the EDITT Tower will be wrapped in organic local vegetation, and passive architecture will allow for natural ventilation. Publicly accessible ramps will connect upper floors to the street level lined in shops, restaurants and plant life. The building has also been designed for future adaptability, with many walls and floors that can be moved or removed. In a city known for its downpours, the building will collect rainwater and integrate a grey-water system for both plant irrigation and toilet flushing with an estimated 55% self-sufficiency. 855 square meters of photovoltaic panels will provide for 39.7% of the building’s energy needs, and plans also include the ability to convert sewage into biogas and fertilizer. The

tower will be constructed using many recycled and recyclable materials, and a centralized recycling system will be accessible from each floor.”- http://inhabitat.com/editt-tower-by-trhamzah-and-yeang/ Expected Completion Date: Unknown

· Smart Buildings Technology under development- creating a system, which is much more than the sum of its parts. Smart building controls would be needed to optimally utilize various subsystems.

· Solar cells for electricity generation- is available widely but not for the generation of both heat and electricity.

Increasing sophistication of companies that provide solar systems. Large growth is expected with already 26% this year. The solar trajectory looks entirely sound - plausible, if not inevitable (much depends on technical developments and improvement in manufacturing productivity). The technical solutions capable of delivering this performance would be able to tolerate low energy efficiency (even something lower than 20% conversion efficiency would be no problem), but should certainly emphasize low capital cost and low operating cost.- http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2014/03/economist-three-minutes-0

Signs that show the opposite:

· Most of these systems require significant cost reduction to become viable at the building level. Not enough money is being spent on development to make this happen.

· Business interests such as coal and power producers are fighting to maintain the status quo

· Not enough carrots (incentives) and sticks (carbon tax) for people to move towards sustainable architecture.

What pathways of change in the World Business Council for Sustainable Development relate to the early signs you identified?

The pathways that relate to the early signs that I have developed are the idea of low energy and growing economy. Both of these two play a major role in the future of Sustainable Architecture. In order for us to be able to foresee Smart Homes in the future is through advancements in current/proposed technologies and economic growth to fund and allow for the suggested improvements. The signs are analyzed in terms of what has been made possible and how they have the potential to be realized in 2050. A lot of these things depend on the technical developments and improvements in manufacturing productivity that is at a steadied and increasing growth rate.

Letter from the Future:

Just got off the phone with my grandkids. I’ve never imagined I would be waking up in a Smart skyscraper. It is such a revolution. Every time I take out the trash, I am in effect generating more energy. I feel as if I am constantly improving the environment and my apartment is an ecosystem of its own. I still need to water the plants on the wall. I use a spray hose attached to my balcony. Everyone always comments on the beautiful flowers on my façade as well as complement the upkeep. It is a refreshing feeling to be able to give back to the environment with every step you take. As a child, I was very conscious about the environment and took part in green clubs/activities but was never fully engaged in a sustainable building. What is a vertical garden? It’s the most beautiful invention. I feel as if I am inside of a secret garden. The best part are the photovoltaic panels that gleam and reflect the sunlight. I am able to use my windows to adjust the amount of sunlight entering/ heat gain. I can stay inside the house all day. The plants provide a lot of fresh air and natural ventilation. I never fall sick and always have food to eat. Its amazing to live in my time today. The whole community is dedicated to sustainability. The environment is recovering. Los Angeles has never looked as green and beautiful. It is always the perfect temperature inside the house and I have the beautiful California Sunlight all the time. I remember when the conditions were so bad that meetings/protocols were developed to

bring society on the same page about sustainability. I can’t believe that there were politicians who didn’t buy in to the idea/refused to believe in it. I always wanted to be an architect. The architecture of today has surpassed my imagination. I live in such an eco-friendly building that I can only help the environment through my daily actiivites. Life could not be better.

Pathways:

2014 2024 2034 (1) 2044 2054

Passive Housing exists and is under-development in LA Homes-

For example the Hillview-greenhouse is now a passive certified home

http://www.westerntc.edu/swipht/

_World Architects have meeting to Pledge Zero Carbon by 2050_

Passive Housing becomes more popular. People are investing in passive house technologies to replace current standard technologies in their homes.

LA homes are encouraged to install passive technologies

The 2030 Challenge is completed-Carbon Neutral Society

All new buildings, developments and major renovations shall be designed to meet a fossil fuel, GHG-emitting, energy consumption performance standard of 60% below the regional (or country) average/median for that building type.

Passive Housing becomes the new standard.

Zero Carbon Society Achieved and houses are fully sustainable.

Solar Voltaics and Solar Panels are being used on houses today. Currently solar cells are used only to generate electricity and concentrating mirrors are used to generate heat.

Risks: The growth of new technologies could decrease due to not enough economic means to support the development ultimately delaying the progression of the new technologies.

At a minimum, an equal amount of existing building area shall be renovated annually to meet a fossil fuel, GHG-emitting, energy consumption performance standard of 60% of the regional (or country) average/median for that building type.

Solar Technology is advanced enough to generate both electricity and heat and provide two different energy sources

Smart Homes are developed and large scale apartment buildings utilize a combination of the several systems. Vertical Farming, anaerobic digestion, solar technology, and passive house technologies are all integrated. Biomass technology is within the household and houses are completely self-sufficient.

Vertical Wall buildings are being designed and still under construction.

Vertical wall buildings are almost constructed and newer designs are being proposed/put into execution

The fossil fuel reduction standard for all new buildings and major renovations shall be increased to: 70% in 2015, 80% in 2020, 90% in 2025

Low energy efficiency- allowing houses to operate on low cost and low capital costs.

Smart Homes is a standard and implemented in all households.

Anaerobic digestion in play at much larger scales.

New technologies are tested in startups and prototypes are developed of the anaerobic digestion system at a smaller scale. However, these are still in development and not yet integrated in the homes

These targets may be accomplished by implementing innovative sustainable design strategies, generating on-site renewable power and/or purchasing (20% maximum) renewable energy.

Business interests such as coal and power producers are fighting to maintain the status quo

Parabolic Trough for energy storage system in LA.

Vertical Farming is actualized on some skyscrapers. However they are not fully sustainable but do lower the carbon emissions from building and put into play the concept of grey water filtration.

Risk: Not enough funding to support technological advancements.

1- http://architecture2030.org/2030_challenge/the_2030_challenge