A2 planning for a changing climate

Planning for a Changing Climate:

Practical Approaches to Adaptation

Jen West, Coastal Training Program Coordinator, Narragansett Bay Research Reserve

Jon Reiner, former Director of Planning, Town of North Kingstown

Chris Witt, acting Supervising Planner, RI Statewide Planning Program

Chelsea Siefert, Principal Planner, RI Statewide Planning Program

Collectively

Managing

Climate

Change

Risks

New England Climate

Adaptation Project

Jen West, Coastal Training Program Coordinator

Narragansett Bay Research Reserve

Project Goals

Assess local climate change risks

Identify key challenges and opportunities for adaptation

Test the use of role-play simulations as a tool for educating the

public about climate change threats and helping communities

explore ways of enhancing their climate preparedness

Project Outputs

Public opinion polls

Summary Risk Assessment

Stakeholder Assessment

Tailored, science-based

role-play simulation

Case study (in process)

Public Poll

Level of concern about climate

risks

Perceived risk of climate change

Public Poll, con’t.

Importance of public

involvement in climate

adaptation decision-making

Agreement with using scientific

projections in local decision-

making

Public Poll, con’t.

Addressing climate risks in the city’s planning and decision—making

processes: how significant it should be versus how significant it will

actually be

Risk Assessment

“Downscaled” climate projections

produced for:

Three time frames

- Short term (2010 -2039)

- Medium term (2040 -2069)

- Long term (2070 -2099)

“Better case” (low emissions) and

“worse case” (high emissions) climate

change scenarios

A range of climate “indicators”

- temperature, precipitation, sea level rise,

etc.

Key Findings

Higher average

temperatures

More extreme heat

events, fewer extreme cold

events

More extreme

precipitation events

Wetter winters, drier

summers

Significant sea level rise

What does this mean for

Cranston?

Risk of riverine flooding

Risk of coastal flooding and storm

surges

Risk of heat waves

Risk of drought

Threats to Cranston’s community,

economy and ecosystems

Adaptation Options

Flood resilient

building design Wetland Restoration Low impact development

Ex: flooding risk

Stakeholder

Assessment

Identified:

Key threats

Impacts

Adaptation options

Obstacles to adaptation

Role-Play Simulation

Role-Play Simulation, con’t.

Role-Play Simulation Outcomes

Concern about local climate change risks

Sense of local responsibility for preparing for and

managing climate change risks

Confidence in ability of local government to take

adaptation action

Participants’ understanding of other perspectives &

appreciation for the need for stakeholder engagement

PLANNING FOR CLIMATE

CHANGE IN MUNICIPAL

GOVERNMENT Jon Reiner, former Director of Planning

Town of North Kingstown

SEA LEVEL RISE:

TRANSPORTATION

ASSET VULNERABILITY

Chris Witt, acting Supervising Planner

RI Statewide Planning Program

• Provide an overview for state, local staff, and the public of the exposure of our transportation assets to sea level rise inundation

• Provide transportation stakeholders with best estimation of the exposure of specific roads

Project Objectives

• Develop desktop vulnerability method for ranking adaptation priorities

• ID state transportation assets at highest risk

Sea Level Rise Scenarios

3 F

ee

t

1 F

oo

t

5 F

ee

t

DATA SOURCES

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Univ. of Rhode Island Environmental Data Center

METHOD

“Bathtub” model Vertical increase in sea level rise over existing terrain

Mapping

Vulnerability

Likelihood and magnitude of

hazard

Social or transportation

impact of hazard occurring

+

Social / transportation impact

Like

liho

od

& m

agn

itu

de

of

haz

ard

Vulnerability

1 2 3 4 5

1 2 3 4 5 6

2 3 4 5 6 7

3 4 5 6 7 8

4 5 6 7 8 9

5 6 7 8 9 10

Vulnerability Index:

Basic Elements

Indicators Scoring and weighting

system Gut check

Magnitude/urgency of physical hazard

Magnitude of social/transportation impact

For example…

Physical Impact Indicators

• Length/area flooded

• How soon asset will flood

• Age of infrastructure

• Elevation of infrastructure

• Condition of infrastructure

Social and Transportation Indicators

• Use level

• Capacity

• Existence of alternatives

Transportation categories

Roads RIPTA Bus Bridges

Bicycle Intermodal

Rail

Ports and Harbors

Airports

Roads Vulnerability Index

Indicator Type Weight Scoring

SLR Zone Hazard 0.3 1 foot = 10, 3 feet = 6, 5 foot = 2

1 ft. Inundation Hazard 0.1 0-15 feet = 3, 15-100 feet = 7, 100+ feet = 10



Functional Class Social

Impact 0.3 See table

Evacuation Route Social

Impact 0.1 Yes = 10, No = 0

Roads Vulnerability Findings

Top 10 State-Owned or Maintained Road Segments Most Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise

Rank Road Name Municipality

Feet of SLR When

Any Part of Road

Segment Floods

Functional

Classification

Hurricane

Evacuation

Route

Linear Feet Flooded at: Vulnerabili

ty Index

Score 1ft SLR 3ft SLR 5ft SLR

1 County Rd (103) Barrington 1 Principal Art. Yes 31 248 2888 8.8

2 Main St Warren 1 Principal Art. Yes 25 318 883 8.1

2 Child St Warren 1 Principal Art. Yes 13 283 1179 8.1

4 Massasoit Ave Barrington 1 Minor Art. Yes 15 59 630 7.5

5 Wampanoag Trail

(114) Barrington 3

Principal Art.,

Urban Non

Classified

Yes 0 141 6368 7.3

6 Old Main Rd* Tiverton 1 Collector Yes 150 834 953 7.2

7 Hope St Bristol 3 Principal Art. Yes 0 583 2021 6.9

8 Market St Warren 3 Principal Art.,

Minor Art. Yes 0 1129 2164 6.7

9 Ocean Ave New

Shoreham 1

Minor Art.,

Rural Non

Classified

No 14 1007 2962 6.6

9 Phillips St N. Kingstown 3 Principal Art. Yes 0 209 583 6.6

RIPTA Route Vulnerability Index

Indicator Type Weight Scoring

Frequency Social

Impact 0.15 Under 50 = 0, 50-250 = 2, 250-400 = 6, 400+ = 10

Ridership Social

Impact 0.2

Under 20,000 = 0, 20-100,000 = 2, 100K-200K = 6, 200K+ = 10

SLR Zone Hazard 0.2 1 foot = 10, 3 feet = 6, 5 foot = 2

Stops Flooded 3 ft. Hazard 0.15 0 = 0, 1 stop = 2, 2 stops = 4, 5 stops = 10

Stops Flooded 5 ft. Hazard 0.15 0 stops = 0, 1 stop = 2, 4-5 stops = 4, 6-7 stops = 6, 8-20 stops = 8, 20+ stops = 10

5 ft. Inundation Hazard 0.15 0-2,000 feet = 3; 2,000-8,000 feet = 7, 8,000+ feet = 10

RIPTA Route Vulnerability Findings

Top 11 RIPTA Routes Most Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise

Rank # Name Ridership -

Weekly

Frequency

- Weekly

Trips

SLR Scenario

When Route

First Impacted

Stops

Flooded

at 3 ft SLR

Stops

Flooded at

5 ft SLR

Length

Flooded

at 5 ft

Vulnerability

Index Score

1 60 PROVIDENCE/NEWPORT 332,983 551 1 5 33 15,918 10.0

2 66 URI/GALILEE 192,375 278 3 1 6 7,561 5.6

3 14 WEST BAY 85,518 190 3 2 9 8,660 5.2

4 33 RIVERSIDE 158,398 404 3 0 4 1,485 4.5

5 64 NEWPORT/URI 41,475 118 3 0 7 6,430 3.9

5 65 WAKEFIELD EXPRESS 28,935 55 3 1 4 5,605 3.9

7 3 WARWICK AVE 148,719 399 3 0 0 1,195 3.8

8 67 BELLEVUE MANSION/SALVE REGINS

54,220 514 5 0 1 2,576 3.7

9 32 EAST PROVIDENCE/WAMPANOAG

24,958 189 3 0 4 1,485 3.6

9 34 EAST PROVIDENCE 55,565 209 3 0 4 1,485 3.6

9 1 EDDY ST 197,685 516 5 0 0 801 3.6

Bridge Vulnerability Index

Indicator* Type Weight Scoring

Freeboard Hazard 0.25 Freeboard problem or unknown = 10; No problem = 0

Access Hazard 0.2 Access problem = 10; no problem = 0

Height of freeboard Hazard 0.1 less than 40" = 10; 41-75“ = 6; more than 75" = 2

Over MHHW Hazard 0.2 Yes = 10; No = 0

Carries road facility Social

Impact 0 Carries road facility = 10; other = 0

AADT Social

Impact 0.25 0-1 = 0, 2-5000 = 3, 5000-15000 = 7, 15000+ = 10

Bridge Vulnerability Findings Top 10 State-Owned Bridges Most Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise

Bridge

Name Town Facility

Feature

Intersected

Year

Built AADT

Inches of

Freeboar

d4

Currently over

tidal water?

Access

Problem

Vulnerability

Index Score

Barrington Barrington RI 114/103 CNTY RD

Barrington River 2009 26,000 74 Y problem 9.6

Warren Barrington RI 114/103 CNTY RD

Warren River 1914 19,900 98 Y problem 9

C.L. Hussey Memorial

North Kingstown

US 1A BSTN NCK RD

Wickford Cove 1925 9,100 48 Y problem 8.85

Wickford North Kingstown

US 1A Bstn Nck Rd

Academy Cove 1951 9,100 61 Y problem 8.85

New Harbor Road

New Shoreham Ocean Av Trimms Pond 1925 7,000 70 Y problem 8.85

New Shoreham

New Shoreham Beach Av Harbor Pond 1997 7,000 73 Y problem 8.85

Barrington Parkway

East Providence

Veterans Mem Pkwy

Watchemoket Cove 1973 12,700 80 Y problem 8.25

Bridgetown Narragansett Bridgetown Rd Pettaquamscutt River

1934 9,800 86 Y problem 8.25

Central Barrington Massasoit Av Barrington River 1940 8,800 99 Y problem 8.25

Silver Creek Bristol RI 114 Hope St Tidal Inlet 1922 18,200 20 N problem 8

General Adaptation

Strategies

PROTECT

ACCOMODATE

RETREAT

DO NOTHING

Armor

Enhance natural protections

Accommodate in place

Realignment

How to Use Project Findings

Spending

• Asset management • Project selection (TIP or CIP) • Construction contracts

Planning

• Hazard mitigation plans • Long range transportation

plan • Local comprehensive plans

Goal-setting

• MAP-21 performance measures

• Other performance management

Questions and Discussion

Creating the

Comprehensive

Planning

Guidance and

Standards

Manual

PROVIDING GUIDANCE

ON ASSESSING

VULNERABILITY Chelsea Siefert, Principal Planner

RI Statewide Planning Program

Mandatory comprehensive planning in Rhode Island

All comp plans reviewed by RI Division of Planning and “approved” or “denied”

Manual provides review standards for all required topics

THE COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING

GUIDANCE AND STANDARDS MANUAL

THE STEPS OF A

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Vulnerability Assessment: A tool to identify and prioritize the

vulnerabilities that a system, asset or population faces in

relation to a particular threat (i.e. climate change)

1. Determine scope, goals and scale of assessment

2. Gather relevant data and expertise

3. Assess vulnerability

Exposure: determine the nature and extent of the threat

Sensitivity: determine the ability of the system, asset or population

to manage the exposure

Impact: determine the effect of exposure on the system, asset or

population

4. Apply assessment results to decision -making

The plan must include an identification of areas that could be

vulnerable to the effects of sea-level rise, f looding, storm

damage, drought, or other natural hazards. Goals, policies, and

implementation techniques must be identified that would help

to avoid or minimize the effects that natural hazards pose to

lives, infrastructure, and property.

Rhode Island General Laws subsection 45 -22.2-6(10)

ADDRESSING NATURAL HAZARDS &

CLIMATE CHANGE

QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED

What are the goals?

EXAMPLE: COMP PLANNING MANUAL

To help communities become more resilient to natural hazards & climate change

To help communities identify specific techniques that can be used to avoid or minimize the effects that natural hazards pose to lives, infrastructure, and property (to include in comp plans)

BEFORE PREPARING THE GUIDANCE


Who is the audience?

What formats could the

guidance take? Which is

best?

Who should be involved in

crafting the guidance?

EXAMPLE:

COMP PLANNING MANUAL

Municipal planners,

Planning Boards interested

residents

As part of a guidance

manual currently underway

Statewide experts on

natural hazards and climate

change

BEFORE PREPARING THE GUIDANCE


What is required

(by law, by regulation, etc.)?

In what framework will the

guidance be used?

What resources are

available?

EXAMPLE:


Identification of vulnerable

areas

Goals, policies &

implementation techniques

Must use the lens of

comprehensive planning

Little to no extra resources

for conducting assessments

Natural hazard and climate

change maps in GIS

GUIDANCE ON THE ASSESSMENT SCOPE


What is the right scale for

the assessment?

What impacts should be

looked at when determining

vulnerability?

What is the desired end

result?

EXAMPLE:


Community -wide

Impacts to populations and

government functions

Identification of major

issues that natural hazards

and climate change will

create


Scope: A preliminary community vulnerability assessment

Looks at exposure, sensitivity and impacts of individual

assets to estimate overall community “vulnerability”

Includes impacts to populations and government functions

Identifies major “issues” that may be caused by natural

hazards and climate change trends



Who should be involved in conducting the assessment?

What expertise/knowledge

already exists?


Planning department staff

Local hazard mitigation officer

Local department heads (all)

State agency officials (where relevant)

Local hazard mitigation plans

State hazard mitigation plan

ADVICE ON DATA AND EXPERTISE


What data is available?

EXAMPLE:


1’, 3’ and 5’ sea level rise

scenarios in GIS

Future sea level rise

estimates

Worst-case hurricane

inundation maps in GIS

1% and .2% flood maps in GIS

Other GIS data: infrastructure,

facilities, public buildings,

public lands, recreational

areas, locations of emergency

services



What data is not available?


GIS data showing exposure to other climate change trends:

Increased riverine flooding

Increased storm surge

20-year data on climate change trends that are not geographically -specific:

Longer periods of high heat and more high heat days

Longer periods of drought

More frequent precipitation events


Guidance should provide:

A model process that can be used to conduct the assessment

Tools to assist in the process

Example Process: Comp Planning Manual

Step 1 - Identify the infrastructure, assets, resources and

populations that may be vulnerable

Step 2 - Assess the potential ef fects of priority natural hazards

and climate change trends on the community

Step 3 - Prioritize the issues that the municipality would face in

the event of future natural hazards and long -term climate

change

GUIDANCE ON ASSESSING

VULNERABILITY

Step 1 - Identify the infrastructure, assets, resources and populations that may be vulnerable

Overlay the maps of the areas that will be exposed to sea level rise and flooding with maps showing various components of the community to determine what lies within those areas

Consider all infrastructure, assets, resources and populations to determine if they are likely to be impacted by any other priority natural hazard and climate change trends


VULNERABILITY


VULNERABILITY

Step 2 - Assess the potential effects of priority natural hazards and climate change trends on the community

Determine which natural hazards and climate change trends are most l ikely to impact the community

Determine which components of the community, if impacted, would

Cause the most disruption to the community

Have the greatest effect on quality of life

Cause the most costly or irreparable damage

Assess severity of impacts:

The permanence of the impact (permanent, temporary, temporary until repaired, etc.);

The number of people and/or businesses that will likely be affected by the impact;

Whether any special populations will be unduly harmed by the impact; and

Whether any community functions and/or values (i.e. public health and safety, education, tourism) will be impacted


VULNERABILITY


VULNERABILITY

Step 3 - Prioritize the issues that the municipality would face in

the event of future natural hazards and long -term climate

change


VULNERABILITY

Determine priority

Assess adaptive capacity

Determine need

Assess onset

Adaptive Capacity – Guiding Questions

Generally, how prepared is the community to survive, recover and/or function if the resource is impacted?

Are there currently actions in progress, planned, ready for implementation or being implemented to address the projected impact?

If the actions are not being implemented, how long until implementation begins? What resources will be necessary for implementation?

To what extent are the actions addressing the potential impact? Is it enough?

Could the policy or program be strengthened to better address the potential impact or to address additional impacts?

Is the community prepared to handle the impacts to populations and/or community functions and values in some other way?


VULNERABILITY

Need – Matrix


VULNERABILITY

Onset - Table


VULNERABILITY

Priority – Matrix


VULNERABILITY


VULNERABILITY

Include discussion of priority issues

within the comprehensive plan:

Discuss the priority impacts within the

comprehensive plan, including the

ways in which the municipality will

address the impacts

Determine the most appropriate

policies and implementation actions

for addressing the impacts

Provided examples of goals, policies and

actions

HELP WITH APPLYING THE ASSESSMENT

RESULTS TO DECISION-MAKING

SMALL GROUP EXERCISES Scenario -based Engagement

Comprehensive Planning

Data-dr iven Assessment

Providing Guidance

Jen West , Coastal Coastal Tra in ing Program Coordinator, NBNERR

[email protected] (401) 222-4700, x7413

Jon Reiner former Director of Planning, Town of Nor th Kingstown

JReiner@groton -ct .gov

Chr is Witt

act ing Superv is ing Planner, RI Statewide Planning Program

[email protected] i .gov

(401) 222-5759

Chelsea Siefer t

Pr incipal Planner, RI Statewide Planning Program

Chelsea.siefer [email protected] i .gov

(401) 222-4721

CONTACT INFO

A2 planning for a changing climate

Presentations & Public Speaking

Transcript of A2 planning for a changing climate