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VirginiaHOME SALESREPORTQ1 2017

Published by the Virginia REALTORS®, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.

2017 First Quarter

Published by the Virginia REALTORS®

Data recorded April 12, 2017 1

The Virginia REALTORS® association publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to provide

our members, the media, and real estate‐related industries with current data. The report data

comes from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia REALTORS®. All data may be used

with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia REALTORS®.

The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and independent

cities in Virginia, as detailed in the map below. It should be noted that these regions do not

necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 28 local REALTOR® associations in

Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern Virginia encompasses more

counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS®

(NVAR). Please take this into consideration when referencing regions.

Central Albemarle, Amelia, Buckingham, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Culpeper, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Fluvanna, Goochland, Greene, Hanover, Henrico, King & Queen, King William, Louisa, Madison, Nelson, New Kent, Orange, Powhatan, Prince George, Rappahannock, Sussex; Charlottesville, Colonial Heights, Hopewell, Petersburg, Richmond

Eastern Accomack, Essex, King George, Lancaster, Middlesex, Northampton, Northumberland, Richmond, Westmoreland

Hampton Roads Gloucester, Isle of Wight, James City, Mathews, Surry, York; Chesapeake, Franklin, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Poquoson, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, Williamsburg

Northern Arlington, Clarke, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren; Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Manassas, Manassas Park

Southside Brunswick, Charlotte, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Nottoway, Patrick, Pittsylvania, Prince Edward, Southampton; Danville, Emporia, Martinsville

Southwest Bland, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Floyd, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe; Bristol, Galax, Norton

Valley Alleghany, Augusta, Bath, Frederick, Highland, Page, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Shenandoah; Buena Vista, Covington, Harrisonburg, Lexington, Staunton, Waynesboro, Winchester

West Central Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Botetourt, Campbell, Craig, Franklin, Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski, Roanoke; Lynchburg, Radford, Roanoke, Salem

2017 First Quarter



First Quarter Summary

The first quarter of 2017 indicates a year of continued growth in Virginia’s residential real

estate market. With particularly strong sales in March and prices rising consistently on high

buyer motivation, performance in the first quarter of 2017 rose notably from the same period

in 2016.

Quarterly transactions rose by 7.8 percent year‐over‐year (from 21,213 to 22,859). Likewise,

first quarter volume jumped by 12.2 percent year‐over‐year, from $6.492 billion in 2016 to

$7.287 billion in 2017. The significant increase in volume was the result of notable

outperformance in pace, or number of sales, multiplied by rising prices. Statewide, median

price for the first quarter rose by 4 percent from 2016 to 2017, from $249,900 to $260,000.

Annualized sales, the sum of all sales for the preceding twelve months, offered a clear

illustration of market strength, rising for the tenth consecutive quarter. The average

quarterly increase in annualized sales over that time has been 1.9 percent, suggesting that if

the trend continues, the annualized figure at the end of 2017’s second quarter could exceed

121,000 sales.

Year‐over‐year, first quarter home sales increased in all price bands except the lowest ($0 to

$100,000), where limited inventory typically restricts market activity. The increases were

significant in every category except the $100,000 t0 $200,000 range. Luxury sales, above

$750,000, increased by the greatest percentages, but because that range represents

relatively few sales, the greatest indicator of overall market performance is in middle price

bands.

Year‐over‐year, sales and median price increased in every region of the state in the first

quarter. The Eastern and Southwest regions exhibited particular gains over their prior year

performance.

Though 30‐year and 15‐year fixed mortgage interest rates remain at enticing lows, they each

jumped notably from the two preceding quarters. Responding to the Federal Reserve Bank’s

decision to raise the key rate in March, in quick succession to its December hike, average

rates for 30‐year and 15‐year fixed mortgage interest rates in the first quarter rose to 4.17

percent and 3.39 percent, respectively. The anticipation of continuing rate increases

contributes to buyer motivation and should spur activity, particularly as greater inventory

comes available for buyers to absorb while rates remain relatively low.

2017 First Quarter



Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2014 5,427 5,705 7,150 8,507 9,701 10,633 10,176 9,486 8,360 8,448 6,662 8,306

2015 5,807 6,087 8,521 9,171 10,370 12,684 11,824 10,205 9,567 8,872 7,020 8,745

2016 5,946 6,577 8,690 10,209 11,786 13,300 11,536 11,779 10,143 9,017 8,607 9,089

2017 6,464 6,655 9,740

Each month of the first quarter in 2017 had higher sales than in the corresponding months of the

previous year. In particular, March sales (9,740) were markedly higher than their prior year

benchmark, increasing 12.1 percent from March 2016 (8,690). Pace typically rises each month

following January, leading into peak summertime sales. The dramatic month‐to‐month jump at the

end of the 2017 first quarter reflects loosened inventory in March following prolonged constraints.

For the previous three years, the February to March increase averaged 32.5 percent; for 2017, it was

46.4 percent.

6,464 6,655

9,740

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

15,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Number of Single Family, Townhome, and Condo Sales

Month‐to‐Month Sales TrendsSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

2014 2015 2016 2017

2017 First Quarter



Sales in the first quarter of 2017 grew by 7.8 percent year‐over‐year, from a total of 21,213 in 2016 Q1

to 22,859. Relative to the first quarter of 2015, sales for the first quarter of 2017 rose 12 percent

(from 20,415 transactions). Further indicated through the annualized sales trend (page 5), year‐

over‐year improvements in quarterly performance indicate sustained market expansion.

Note: the horizontal bar in the graph indicates the variance in first quarter sales from 2014 through

2017, beginning with 18,282 sales in 2014 and rising eventually to 22,859 sales in 2017, with

graduated increases for each year in between. 2017 first quarter sales were 25 percent higher than

their 2014 benchmark.

18,282

28,841 28,022

23,416

20,415

32,225 31,596

24,637

21,213

35,29533,458

26,713

22,859

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

Number of Single Fam

ily, Townhome, C

ondo Sales

Quarterly Residential SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

7.8 %

2017 First Quarter



Each data point on the graph above represents twelve months of home sales data ending in the

quarter shown. For example, the 2017 Q1 figure (118,325 sales) includes home sales from April 2016

through March 2017, and the 2016 Q4 figure (116,679 sales) includes home sales from January 2016

through December 2016. This rolling sum of home sales reduces seasonal effect, providing a clearer

indicator of long‐term trends in Virginia’s housing market. The trend of continued improvement in

this measure illustrates how Virginia’s residential real estate market has grown consistently over

the long‐term. Annualized sales ending in the first quarter of 2017 grew 1.4 percent from the

previous quarter. Year‐over‐year, the measure grew 7.9 percent.

Indicating that growth has been sustained regardless of seasonal market fluctuations, annualized

sales have grown for ten consecutive quarters. The average growth per quarter over that time

period has been 1.9 percent. This suggests that, if remaining on trend, the annualized sales figure

ending in the second quarter of 2017 may approach 121,000 sales.

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1N

umber of Single Family, Townhome, and Condo Sales

Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

7.9 %

2017 First Quarter



Region 2016 Q1 2017 Q1

Central 4,343 4,905 12.9%

Eastern 386 428 10.9%

Hampton Roads 5,169 5,320 2.9%

Northern 7,762 8,313 7.1%

Southside 435 558 28.3%

Southwest 316 369 16.8%

Valley 1,078 1,102 2.2%

West Central 1,711 1,851 8.2%

Other 13 13 0%

ALL of Virginia 21,213 22,859 7.8%

The chart above compares 2016 first quarter sales to 2017 first quarter sales, by region. All regions

experienced notable growth from the same period last year, for a statewide aggregate jump of 7.8

percent. The greatest year‐over‐year percentage increases occurred in the Southside and

Southwest regions. Performance metrics are relative to the absolute number of sales, so less dense

regions with increasing sales may show a relatively higher growth percentage. Two of the densest

regions – Northern and Central – gained notably as well.

Regional Changes in Sales 2015 Q4 vs. 2016 Q4 Units

+16.8 %

+12.9 %

+8.2 %

+7.1 %

+28.3 %+2.9 %

+10.9 %+2.2 %

2017 First Quarter



In comparison to the first quarter of 2016, aggregate median price rose by 4 percent for the first

quarter of 2017. Relative to the first quarter of 2015, median price rose by 5.1 percent. Price rises

have been spurred by increased buyer confidence, with demand consistently exceeding supply.

Reflecting typical seasonal trends, median price fell relative to the fourth quarter of 2017 by 1.9

percent, from $265,000 to $260,000. A decline in price from the fourth to first quarters is expected

as activity is usually slowest in January and February each year.

249,000

235,000 267,000

260,000

251,000

247,500 274,950

265,000

255,000

249,900 279,000

272,000

265,000

260,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2013Q4

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

Med

ian Sales Price

Median Residential Sales PriceSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

4.0 %

5.1 %

2017 First Quarter



Region 2016 Q1 2017 Q1

Central $212,000 $228,950 8.0%

Eastern $171,150 $197,450 15.4%

Hampton Roads $210,000 $220,000 4.8%

Northern $390,000 $399,900 2.5%

Southside $89,000 $90,000 1.1%

Southwest $100,250 $115,000 14.7%

Valley $179,900 $189,000 5.1%

West Central $154,800 $162,000 4.7%

Other $110,000 $74,000 ‐32.7%

ALL of Virginia $249,900 $260,000 4.0%

Median sales price increased year‐over‐year in every region, with particularly strong performance in

the Eastern and Southwest regions. Because ‘Other’ sales represent so few transactions, there is

greater variance in price movement for each reporting period.

Regional Changes in Median Sales Price 2015 Q4 vs. 2016 Q4

+1.1 %

+4.7 %

+14.7

+8.0 %

+5.1 %

2.5%

+4.8 %

+15.4

2017 First Quarter



This graph represents the dollar value of residential real estate sold (in billions) during each quarter

for the last three years. The volume of real estate sold in the first quarter of 2017 rose by 12.2

percent year‐0ver‐year, from $6.492 billion to $7.287 billion. Volume is amplified year‐over‐year by

increases in both price and the number of transactions. Because the first quarter of 2017 saw a

significant increase in pace alongside steadily rising median price, volume rose significantly on the

strength of both contributing factors.

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

Billions of Dollars of Residential Sales

Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($B)Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

12.2 %

2017 First Quarter



Year‐0ver‐year home sales increased in every price category except the lowest ($0 to $100K), where

restricted inventory limits the number of sales possible. Growth was particularly strong in the

ranges from $200k to $400k.

2,256

5,560

5,770

3,669

2,187

2,351

662

404

2,449

5,478

5,171

3,175

1,981

2,110

522

327

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000

0 ‐ $100K

$100K ‐ $200K

$200K ‐ $300K

$300K ‐ $400K

$400K ‐ $500K

$500K ‐ $750K

$750 K ‐ $1M

$1 M+

Price Ran

ge

Price Distribution of Residential Home SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

2016‐Q1 2017‐Q1

9.9%

24.3%

25.2%

16.1%

9.6%

10.3%

2.9% 1.8%

Market Share for Price Bands

0 ‐ $100K

$100K ‐ $200K

$200K ‐ $300K

$300K ‐ $400K

$400K ‐ $500K

$500K ‐ $750K

$750 K ‐ $1M

$1 M+

‐7.9 %

11.6 %

15.6 %

10.4 %

11.4%

26.8 %

23.5 %

Because sales in ranges

below $750,000 represent

the vast majority of

transactions in Virginia, they

are the clearest indicator of

market performance. The

highest number of

transactions by price band in

2017 Q1 happened in the

$200k to $300k range.

1.5 %

2017 First Quarter



The average number of days on the market in the first quarter of 2017 decreased from the same

quarter last year by 10.8 percent. Declining days on the market reflect sustained demand and

reaction to the realization of rate increases, as buyers transact with increasing urgency. Typical of

industry seasonality, average time on the market lengthened from the fourth quarter to the first,

reflecting the slower activity in January and February.

73

84

6873

81

89

68 68

7883

63 61

6974

0

30

60

90

120

2013Q4

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

Average Days on the Market

Average Days on the MarketSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

‐10.8 %

2017 First Quarter



The changes in the pace of Virginia home sales in the first quarter have tracked the changes in the

pace of sales in the United States as a whole. National existing homes sales figures have not yet

been released for March 2017.

Virginia median price changes were similar to the changes in the median of existing‐home sales

prices nationally for the first quarter of 2017. Both Virginia and the United States as a whole showed

year‐0ver‐year increases in median price. National median price has not yet been released for March

2017.

*Virginia sales reported in the graphs above include all single family, townhouse, and condo sales. U.S. sales are existing single family sales as

reported by the National Association of REALTORS®. Existing sales do not include newly constructed homes sold for the first time.

8,6909,740

421,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Monthly Residential SalesVIRGINIA (All MLS‐Reported Home Sales*) UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales*)

$221,500

$251,930$264,975

$80,000

$130,000

$180,000

$230,000

$280,000

$330,000

Feb‐16 Mar‐16 Apr‐16 May‐16 Jun‐16 Jul‐16 Aug‐16 Sep‐16 Oct‐16 Nov‐16 Dec‐16 Jan‐17 Feb‐17 Mar‐17

Monthly Residential Median Sales PriceUNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales*) VIRGINIA (All MLS‐Reported Home Sales*)

2017 First Quarter



The Virginia unemployment rate fell in the first quarter to seasonally‐adjusted 3.9 percent. Virginia

unemployment continues to track below the national average (4.7 percent). Low unemployment is

correlated with bolstered consumer confidence. At the national level, a strong first quarter jobs

report contributed to the Federal Reserve Bank’s enactment of an increase in the key rate.

5.3%5.1%

4.9% 4.8%

4.5%

4.2% 4.2% 4.1%

3.7%3.9%

4.1%3.9%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

2014‐Q2 2014‐Q3 2014‐Q4 2015‐Q1 2015‐Q2 2015‐Q3 2015‐Q4 2016‐Q1 2016‐Q2 2016‐Q3 2016‐Q4 2017‐Q1

Virginia Unemployment RateSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2017 First Quarter



Though still offering enticing financing opportunity, 30‐year and 15‐year fixed mortgage interest

rates increased notably in the first quarter of 2017. The Federal Reserve Bank announced a widely

anticipated rate hike in mid‐March, acting on strong labor data. The quarterly average of the 30‐

year fixed mortgage interest rate reached its highest point since the third quarter of 2014, and the

15‐year reached its highest point since the second quarter of 2014.

4.36%

4.23%4.14%

3.97%

3.72%3.83%

3.95%3.90%

3.74%

3.59%

3.45%

3.81%

4.17%

3.00%

3.40%

3.80%

4.20%

4.60%

2014‐Q1 2014‐Q3 2015‐Q1 2015‐Q3 2016‐Q1 2016‐Q3 2017‐Q1

Average 30‐Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac

3.40%3.32%

3.27%3.18%

3.01%3.06%

3.15% 3.13%3.03%

2.85%2.75%

3.07%

3.39%

2.20%

2.40%

2.60%

2.80%

3.00%

3.20%

3.40%

3.60%

2014‐Q1 2014‐Q3 2015‐Q1 2015‐Q3 2016‐Q1 2016‐Q3 2017‐Q1

Average 15‐Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac

2017 First Quarter



The Virginia REALTORS® association is the largest professional trade association in Virginia,

representing approximately 32,000 REALTORS® engaged in the residential and commercial real

estate business. The Virginia REALTORS® association serves as the advocate for homeownership

and private property rights and represents the interests of real estate professionals and property

owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

NOTE: The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate

professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict

code of ethics.

All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to:

Jenny Wortham

Virginia REALTORS®

[email protected]

804‐262‐3755

The numbers reported here are preliminary and based on current entries into multiple listing

services. Over time, data may be adjusted slightly to reflect increased reporting. Information is

sourced from multiple listing services across Virginia and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

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