A WORLD AT RISK · a world at risk the freeman spogli institute for international studies at...

A WORLD AT RISK

THE FREEMAN SPOGLI INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES AT STANFORD UNIVERSITY

SECOND ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & DINNER

PROGRAM ANDSPEAKERS

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 2006

STANFORD UNIVERSITYFRANCES C. ARRILLAGA ALUMNI CENTER326 GALVEZ STREET

website http://fsi.stanford.edu

The Freeman Spogli Institute for

International Studies (FSI) is Stanford

University’s primary forum for

interdisciplinary research on key

international issues and challenges.

FSI seeks to contribute to public

policy nationally and internationally

with its scholarship and analysis;

to transcend traditional academic

boundaries by creating new inter-

disciplinary partnerships; to make its

research available to a wide and

influential audience; and to enrich

the educational experience of all

members of the Stanford community.

FSI INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE: A WORLD AT RISK 1

CHECK IN – 7:30 TO 8:00 AMThe Frances C. Arrillaga Alumni Center, Lobby

BREAKFAST AND WELCOME – 8:00 TO 9:00 AMThe Frances C. Arrillaga Alumni Center, McCaw Hall

8:15 TO 8:30 AM WELCOMEJohn W. Etchemendy, Provost, Stanford UniversityCoit D. Blacker, Director, Freeman Spogli Institute (FSI)

8:30 TO 9:00 AM OPENING REMARKSThe Hon. Warren Christopher, 63rd Secretary of StateThe Hon. William J. Perry, 19th Secretary of DefenseThe Hon. George P. Shultz, 60th Secretary of State

PLENARY I – 9:15 TO 10:45 AMThe Frances C. Arrillaga Alumni Center, McCaw HallUnderstanding, Measuring, and Coping with Risk: What We Know

Chair: Coit D. Blacker, Director, FSI

Panelists: Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, Burton J. and DeeDee McMurtryProfessor and Chair, Department of Management Science and EngineeringUnderstanding and Measuring Risk

Scott D. Sagan, Professor of Political Science; Senior Fellow, FSI; Director, Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC)The Collapse of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime?

Siegfried S. Hecker, Visiting Professor, CISAC; Director Emeritus, Los Alamos National LaboratoryKeeping Fissile Materials Out of Terrorist Hands

Agenda

FSI INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE: A WORLD AT RISK2

BREAKOUT SESSIONS – 11:00 AM TO 12:00 PMThe Frances C. Arrillaga Alumni Center, Fisher Conference Center

CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLICY (CESP):Food Security and the EnvironmentHow can the global community devise effective strategies to solve theproblems of chronic hunger—the silent killer of our time—and environmentaldegradation from intensive agricultural production, particularly at a timewhen crops are being grown increasingly for fuel, not food?

Chair: Rosamond L. Naylor, Julie Wrigley Senior Fellow, FSI and Woods Institute for the Environment; Director,Program on Food Security and the Environment

Panelists: Kenneth G. Cassman, Heuermann Professor of Agronomy and Director, Nebraska Center for Energy Sciences Research, University of Nebraska

Scott Rozelle, Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow, FSI

CENTER FOR HEALTH POLICY/CENTER FOR PRIMARY CARE ANDOUTCOMES RESEARCH (CHP/PCOR):Pandemics, Infectious Diseases, and BioterrorismHow can the international community mobilize resources to combat aninfluenza epidemic, major infectious diseases, and an incipient threat ofbioterrorism? What are the real risks and trade-offs?

Chair: Alan M. Garber, Henry J. Kaiser, Jr. Professor; Professor of Medicine; Director, CHP/PCOR

Panelists: Michael T. Osterholm, Professor, School of Public Health, and Director, Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, University of Minnesota

Douglas K. Owens, Professor of Medicine; CHP/PCOR Core Faculty Member

Lawrence M. Wein, Paul E. Holden Professor of Management Science, Graduate School of Business; CISAC Faculty Affiliate

Agenda (continued)


BREAKOUT SESSIONS – 11:00 AM TO 12:00 PM (CONTINUED)

CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND COOPERATION (CISAC):Insurgencies, Failed States, and the Challenge of GovernanceWhat security risks arise from challenges of governance in weak or failingstates? How can the international community most effectively addressinsurgencies or civil wars? What lessons do Iraq and other recent conflictshold for the future of insurgency and intervention?

Chair: Jeremy M. Weinstein, Assistant Professor of Political Science; CISAC and Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) Faculty Affiliate

Panelists: Larry Diamond, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution; Coordinator, Democracy Program, CDDRL; Founding Co-Editor, Journal of Democracy

Stephen J. Stedman, Senior Fellow, FSI; Director, Ford Dorsey Program in International Policy Studies

LUNCHEON – 12:30 TO 2:00 PMThe Frances C. Arrillaga Alumni Center, McCaw Hall

1:00 TO 2:00 PM LUNCHEON SPEAKERMichael T. Osterholm, Professor, School of Public Health, and Director, Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, University of MinnesotaPandemic Influenza: Harbinger of Things to Come?


PLENARY I I – 2:30 TO 4:00 PMThe Frances C. Arrillaga Alumni Center, McCaw HallNatural, National, and International Disasters

Chair: Michael A. McFaul, Associate Professor of Political Science; Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution; Deputy Director, FSI; Director, CDDRL

Panelists: Stephen E. Flynn, Jeanne J. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies, Council on Foreign Relations; Consulting Professor, CISACTerror, U.S. Ports, and Neglect of Critical Infrastructure

David G. Victor, Professor of Law; Senior Fellow, FSI; Director, Program on Energy and Sustainable DevelopmentEnergy Shocks to the Global System

BREAKOUT SESSIONS – 4:30 TO 5:30 PMThe Frances C. Arrillaga Alumni Center, Fisher Conference Center

CENTER ON DEMOCRACY, DEVELOPMENT, AND THE RULE OF LAW (CDDRL):Responding to a World at Risk: U.S. Efforts at Democracy Promotion inRussia, Iraq, and IranCan the U.S. foster democracy in other countries? Should we? Examining thecritical cases of Russia, Iraq, and Iran, what has recent experience taughtabout preconditions and prospects for promoting stable democracy, sustainabledevelopment, and the rule of law?

Chair: Michael A. McFaul, Associate Professor of Political Science; Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution; Deputy Director, FSI; Director, CDDRL

Panelists: Abbas Milani, Director, Iranian Studies Program, Stanford University; Co-Director, Iran Democracy Project, Hoover Institution

David Patel, Pre-Doctoral Fellow, CDDRL; Assistant Professor of Political Science, Cornell University (2007)

Kathryn Stoner-Weiss, Senior Research Scholar and Associate Director for Research, CDDRL

Agenda (continued)


BREAKOUT SESSIONS – 4:30 TO 5:30 PM (CONTINUED)

FORUM ON CONTEMPORARY EUROPE (FCE) :The European Union: Politics, Economics, TerrorismHow can governments and societies respond effectively to competing economicpriorities and political pressures? What action is being taken to addressEurope’s expansion? How does the continent address the challenges of multi-ethnic societies and the threat of terrorism?

Chair: Amir Eshel, Professor, Department of German Studies; Director, Forum on Contemporary Europe

Panelists: Josef Joffe, Distinguished Fellow, Hoover Institution and FSI

Hugo Paemen, Adjunct Professor, BMW Center for German and European Studies, Georgetown University; Former European Union Ambassador to the United States

James J. Sheehan, Dickason Professor in the Humanities; Professor of History

PROGRAM ON ENERGY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (PESD):China’s Rise: Implications for the World Economy and Energy MarketsWhat are the prospects for economic growth in China and the reform ofkey sectors, such as the capital markets? How will China’s escalating energydemand and consumption affect world markets and investment patterns?

Chair: Thomas C. Heller, Lewis Talbot and Nadine Hearn Shelton Professor of International Legal Studies, School of Law; Senior Fellow, FSI and Woods Institute for the Environment; Coordinator, Rule of Law Program, CDDRL

Panelist: Fred Hu, Managing Director, Goldman Sachs (Asia); Co-Director, National Center for Economic Research, Tsinghua University

David G. Victor, Professor of Law; Senior Fellow, FSI; Director, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development


Agenda (continued)

BREAKOUT SESSIONS – 4:30 TO 5:30 PM (CONTINUED)

WALTER H. SHORENSTEIN ASIA-PACIFIC RESEARCH CENTER(SHORENSTEIN APARC):Cross Currents: Nationalism and Regionalism in Northeast AsiaHow will the rising and competing forces of nationalism and regionalismaffect great power relations within the region and with the United States?

Chair: Daniel C. Sneider, Associate Director for Research, Shorenstein APARC

Panelists: Michael H. Armacost, Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow; Former Ambassador to Japan, the Philippines

Gi-Wook Shin, Associate Professor of Sociology; Director, Shorenstein APARC; Founding Director, Korean Studies Program

Xiyu Yang, Pantech Fellow, Shorenstein APARC; Director, Office for the Korean Peninsula Issues, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs

COCKTAIL RECEPTION – 6:00 TO 7:00 PMThe Frances C. Arrillaga Alumni Center, Lobby

DINNER – 7:00 TO 9:00 PMThe Frances C. Arrillaga Alumni Center, McCaw Hall

8:00 TO 9:00 PM DINNER SPEAKERPeter Bergen, CNN Terrorism Analyst; Author of Holy War, Inc.: Inside the Secret World of bin Laden; Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins UniversitySuccesses and Failures of the War on Terrorism Since 9/11

FSIINTERNATIONALCONFERENCESPEAKERS


John W. Etchemendy became Stanford’s twelfth provost on September 1, 2000.He is also a professor of philosophy, a faculty member of the SymbolicSystems Program, and a senior researcher at the Center for the Study ofLanguage and Information.

An exceptionally popular teacher, Etchemendy won the Bing TeachingAward in 1992, the first year it was presented. He was cited for the “mostextraordinarily positive testimony from students.” He has served as seniorassociate dean in the School of Humanities and Sciences, director of the Centerfor the Study of Language and Information, and deputy chair of the searchcommittee that nominated John Hennessy to be Stanford’s tenth president.He also chaired the Commission on Technology in Teaching and Learningthat President Gerhard Casper established to explore ways to enhance traditionalteaching methods through technology.

Etchemendy, whose research interests include logic, semantics, and thephilosophy of language, has challenged orthodox views on the central notionsof truth, logical consequence, and logical truth. His recent work has focusedon the role of diagrams and other nonlinguistic forms of representation inreasoning. His latest books are Language, Proof and Logic (1999) andHyperproof (1994), both written with the late Jon Barwise. He and Barwisealso developed the academic software “Turing’s World” and “Tarski’s World,”as well as the “Hyperproof” software that allows computers to support thehuman reasoning process.

Etchemendy earned a BA and MA from the University of Nevada, Reno,and a PhD in philosophy from Stanford University.

JOHN W. ETCHEMENDY

Provost, Stanford University

Welcome and Opening Speakers


Coit D. Blacker is the director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for InternationalStudies, the Olivier Nomellini Family University Fellow in UndergraduateEducation, an FSI Stanford senior fellow, and a professor of political science, bycourtesy. Blacker is a member of the Stanford Board of Trustees Committeeon Development (since 2004). He is also co-chair, with Elisabeth Paté-Cornell,of the Stanford International Initiative and chair of the International InitiativeExecutive Committee.

During the first Clinton administration, Blacker served as special assistantto the president for National Security Affairs and senior director for Russian,Ukrainian, and Eurasian affairs at the National Security Council (NSC). Atthe NSC, he oversaw the implementation of U.S. policy toward Russia andthe New Independent States, while also serving as principal staff assistantto the president and the national security advisor on matters relating to theformer Soviet Union.

From 1998 to 2003, Blacker served as co-director of the Aspen Institute’sU.S.-Russia Dialogue, which twice each year brings together prominentU.S. and Russian specialists on foreign and defense policy for discussion andreview of critical issues in U.S.-Russian relations. He was a study groupmember of the U.S. Commission on National Security in the 21st Century(Hart-Rudman Commission) throughout the commission’s tenure.

In 1993 Blacker was awarded an honorary doctorate by the RussianAcademy of Sciences for his work on U.S.-Russian relations. He is a graduateof Occidental College (AB, Political Science) and the Fletcher School of Lawand Diplomacy (MA, MALD, PhD).

COIT D. BLACKER

Director, Freeman Spogli Institute (FSI)


Warren Christopher is senior partner and former chairman of the law firmO’Melveny & Myers, where he consults on a wide variety of internationalmatters and advises clients on sensitive disputes.

From January 1993 to January 1997, Christopher served as the 63rd secretaryof state of the United States. Previously he was deputy secretary of stateunder President Carter, who awarded him the Medal of Freedom, the nation’shighest civilian award, for his role in negotiating the release of 52 Americanhostages in Iran. Christopher also headed the search for a running mate forboth Governor Clinton’s and Vice President Gore’s presidential campaigns,and directed the presidential transition process for Clinton.

Christopher’s civic activities have included service as president of the Boardof Trustees of Stanford University, chairman of the Board of Trustees ofCarnegie Corporation of New York, and director and vice chairman of theCouncil on Foreign Relations. He has also authored four books: In theStream of History: Shaping Foreign Policy for a New Era (Stanford, 1998);Chances of a Lifetime (published in 2001 by Scribner, on the Los AngelesTimes bestseller list for seven weeks, and in the number-one spot for two ofthose weeks); Diplomacy, the Neglected Imperative (published privately in1981); and Random Harvest (published privately in 2005).

Christopher received a BA from the University of Southern California anda JD from Stanford Law School, where he was president of the Law Reviewand was elected to the Order of the Coif.

THE HON. WARREN CHRISTOPHER

63rd Secretary of State


William J. Perry is the Michael and Barbara Berberian Professor at StanfordUniversity, with a joint appointment at FSI and the School of Engineering.He is a senior fellow at FSI and serves as co-director of the Preventive DefenseProject, a research collaboration of Stanford and Harvard universities. He isan expert in U.S. foreign policy, national security, and arms control.

Perry was the 19th secretary of defense of the United States, serving fromFebruary 1994 to January 1997. He previously served as deputy secretary ofdefense (1993–94) and under secretary of defense for research and engineering(1977–81). Perry was the co-director of CISAC from 1988 to 1993, duringwhich time he was also a part-time professor at Stanford; from 1971 to 1977he was a part-time lecturer in the Department of Mathematics at Santa ClaraUniversity. He served in the Army of Occupation in Japan, and later was asecond lieutenant in the Army Reserves from 1950 to 1955.

Perry has been awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom (1997), theDepartment of Defense Distinguished Service Medal (1980 and 1981), andOutstanding Civilian Service Medals from the Army (1962 and 1997), theAir Force (1997), the Navy (1997), the Defense Intelligence Agency (1977and 1997), NASA (1981), and the Coast Guard (1997). He has also beendecorated by the governments of Albania, Bahrain, France, Germany, Hungary,Japan, Korea, Poland, Slovenia, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom.

Perry is a member of the National Academy of Engineering and a fellowof the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He received a BS and MS fromStanford University and a PhD from Penn State, all in mathematics.

THE HON. WILLIAM J . PERRY

19th Secretary of Defense


George P. Shultz is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellowat the Hoover Institution. He is also chairman of the California Governor’sCouncil of Economic Advisors and co-chairman of the Committee on thePresent Danger.

Shultz was the 60th secretary of state of the United States, holding officefrom July 1982 to January 1989. In addition, he has served as chairmanof the President’s Economic Policy Advisory Board, secretary of the treasury,director of the Office of Management and Budget, secretary of labor,and dean of the University of Chicago’s Graduate School of Business. From1974–82 he was president and director of the Bechtel Group, and alsotaught at Stanford University. In January 1989 Shultz rejoined Stanford as theJack Steele Parker Professor of International Economics at the GraduateSchool of Business and a distinguished fellow at the Hoover Institution.

His publications include Economic Policy Beyond the Headlines, co-authoredwith Kenneth Dam (Chicago, 1998), and his best-selling memoir, Turmoiland Triumph: My Years as Secretary of State (Charles Scribner’s Sons, 1993).His monograph, Economics in Action: Ideas, Institutions, Policies, waspublished in 1995 as a part of the Hoover Essays in Public Policy series.

Shultz graduated from Princeton University in 1942, receiving a BA ineconomics. In 1949, he earned a PhD degree in industrial economics fromthe Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

THE HON. GEORGE P. SHULTZ

60th Secretary of State

Michael H. Armacost is a ShorensteinDistinguished Fellow at the Walter H.Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center(Shorenstein APARC) at Stanford University.His current research focuses on contemporaryissues in U.S. relations with Northeast Asiaand the impact of domestic developments inforeign policy decision making.

From 1995 to 2002, Armacost served aspresident of the Brookings Institution, aleader in research on politics, government,international affairs, economics, and publicpolicy. Previously, during his twenty-four yeargovernment career, Armacost served, amongother positions, as undersecretary of state forpolitical affairs and as ambassador to Japanand the Philippines. He first resided atShorenstein APARC as a Distinguished SeniorFellow and visiting professor.

Amacost is the author of three books, themost recent of which, Friends or Rivals?, was

published in 1996 anddraws on his tenure as ambassador. He also co-edited, with DanielOkimoto, The Future ofAmerica’s Alliances in Northeast Asia, publishedin 2004 by Shorenstein APARC. Armacost alsoserves on numerous corporate and nonprofitboards, including AFLAC, Applied Materials,USEC, Inc., Cargill, Inc, Carleton College, andThe Asia Foundation.

Armacost has received the President’sDistinguished Service Award, the DefenseDepartment’s Distinguished Civilian ServiceAward, and the Secretary of State’sDistinguished Services Award. He graduatedfrom Carleton College and earned an MAand PhD in public law and government fromColumbia University.

Peter Bergen is a print and television journalistand CNN’s terrorism analyst. He is also aSchwartz Senior Fellow at the New AmericaFoundation and an adjunct professor at theSchool of Advanced International Studies atJohns Hopkins University.

Bergen has worked for CNN as a produceron a wide variety of international and U.S.national stories, including Osama bin Laden’sfirst television interview, which aired in 1997.He is the author of Holy War, Inc.: Inside theSecret World of bin Laden (Free Press, 2001),which was a New York Times bestseller andhas been translated into eighteen languages.A National Geographic documentary based onHoly War, Inc. was nominated for an Emmyin the research category. His most recent bookis The Osama bin Laden I Know: An OralHistory of al Qaeda’s Leader (Free Press, 2006).CNN recently aired a two-hour documentary,In the Footsteps of bin Laden, based on the

book and co-produced byBergen. He has also workedas a correspondent forNational Geographic tele-vision and the Discoverychannel for documentaries about terrorism.

Bergen has written about al Qaeda andterrorism for the New York Times, Los AngelesTimes, New Republic, Foreign Affairs,Washington Post, The Atlantic, Rolling Stone,TIME, The Nation, Mother Jones,Washington Times, Vanity Fair, The Guardian,The Times, and The Daily Telegraph. He ison the editorial board of Studies in Conflict& Terrorism.

Bergen received a BA in modern historyfrom New College, Oxford University.


MICHAEL H. ARMACOST

PETER BERGEN

Speakers and Panelists

Kenneth G. Cassman is director of the NebraskaCenter for Energy Sciences Research andthe Heuermann Professor of Agronomy at theUniversity of Nebraska. His current researchincludes evaluating the potential of corn-basedcropping systems in the USA Corn Belt toproduce biofuels, mitigate greenhouse gasemissions, and improve soil and water quality;and optimizing water-use efficiency and cropproductivity in water-limited irrigated systems.

In previous positions, Cassman has workedas a research agronomist in Brazil, Egypt, andthe Philippines, and as a faculty member at theUniversity of California–Davis. His research,teaching, and extension efforts have focused onensuring local and global food security whileconserving natural resources in the many of theworld’s most productive cropping systems.He is a fellow of the American Association forthe Advancement of Science, the AmericanSociety of Agronomy, the Crop Science Society

of America, and the SoilScience Society of America.

Cassman received a BSin biology from theUniversity of California–San Diego and a PhD in agronomy and soilscience from the University of Hawaii’s Collegeof Tropical Agriculture.

Larry Diamond is a senior fellow at the HooverInstitution; a Stanford professor of politicalscience, and sociology by courtesy; and coordi-nator of the Democracy Program at the Centeron Democracy, Development, and the Rule ofLaw (CDDRL). He is a specialist on democraticdevelopment and regime change and U.S. foreignpolicy affecting democracy abroad.

During the first three months of 2004,Diamond served as a senior adviser on gover-nance to the Coalition Provisional Authorityin Iraq. He is now lecturing and writing aboutthe challenges of post-conflict state-buildingin Iraq and other countries. He is co-director ofthe International Forum for Democratic Studiesof the National Endowment for Democracy andfounding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy.He has lectured in more than 20 countries onproblems of democratic development.

Diamond has written extensively on thefactors that facilitate and obstruct democracy

in developing countries andon problems of democracy,development, and corruption,particularly in Africa. Heis the author of SquanderedVictory: The American Occupation and theBungled Effort to Bring Democracy to Iraq,Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation,and Promoting Democracy in the 1990s.His recent edited books include Islam andDemocracy in the Middle East (with Marc F.Plattner and Daniel Brumberg), Political Partiesand Democracy (with Richard Gunther),The Global Resurgence of Democracy and TheGlobal Divergence of Democracies (both withMarc F. Plattner), and Consolidating Democracyin Korea (with Byung-Kook Kim).

He received a BA, MA, and PhD fromStanford University, all in sociology.


KENNETH G. CASSMAN

LARRY DIAMOND

Amir Eshel is a professor of German studiesand comparative literature and director ofthe Forum on Contemporary Europe at theFreeman Spogli Institute for InternationalStudies. His research interests include postwarGerman culture, the contemporary Europeannovel, and German-Jewish history and culturefrom the Enlightenment to the present. He isalso involved in an interdisciplinary project onBerlin and the urban space.

At Stanford, Eshel has taught courses onmodern German culture, history and memory,and more recently on terrorism in culture andliterature. Prior to joining the Stanford facultyin 1998, he taught at the Universität Hamburgin Germany.

Eshel is currently working on a book onthe poetic figuration of historical narratives,titled Narratives of History: Historical Narrativesand Political Discourse in ContemporaryGermany, Austria, and Israel. He also authored

Zeit der Zäsur. JüdischeLyriker im Angesicht derShoah (UniversitätsverlagHeidelberg, 1999) andhas edited special issuesof Modernism/modernity, New GermanCritique, the Germanic Review, and theGerman Quarterly.

Eshel received an MA in German literatureand philosophy and a PhD in German literaturefrom the Universität Hamburg.

Stephen E. Flynn is the inaugural Jeane J.Kirkpatrick senior fellow for national securitystudies at the Council of Foreign Relationsand a commander in the U.S. Coast Guard(retired). He ranks among the world’s mostwidely cited experts on homeland security andtrade and transportation security issues.

Since 9/11 Flynn has provided testimonyon 17 occasions on Capitol Hill and has testifiedbefore the Canadian House of Commons andthe Canadian Senate. He served as the principaladvisor to the bipartisan Congressional PortSecurity Caucus and is a member of the marineboard of the National Research Council. From2000 to 2001, Flynn was the lead consultant onhomeland security to the U.S. Commission onNational Security (Hart-Rudman Commission).He served in the White House Military Officeduring the George H. W. Bush administrationand as a director for global issues on the NationalSecurity Staff during the Clinton administration.

Flynn is the author ofAmerica the Vulnerable:How Our Government isFailing to Protect Us fromTerrorism (HarperCollins,2004) and the forthcoming The Edge of Disaster:Catastrophic Storms, Terror, and AmericanRecklessness (Random House, February 2007).He served as director and principal authorfor the independent task force report America:Still Unprepared—Still in Danger (Council onForeign Relations, 2004), co-chaired by formerSenators Gary Hart and Warren Rudman. Hehas written about transportation security issuesfor the New York Times, Wall Street Journal,and Foreign Affairs, among others.

A graduate of the U.S. Coast Guard Academy,Flynn received MALD and PhD degrees ininternational politics from the Fletcher Schoolof Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.


AMIR ESHEL

STEPHEN E. FLYNN

Alan M. Garber is the Henry J. Kaiser Jr.Professor, a professor of medicine, and aprofessor, by courtesy, of economics and healthresearch and policy at Stanford University.He is also founding director of both the Centerfor Health Policy (CHP) and the Center forPrimary Care and Outcomes Research (PCOR).He is principal investigator of the Center onAdvancing Decision Making in Aging and theCenter on the Demography and Economicsof Health and Aging, and leads the GlobalHealthcare Productivity project, which includescollaborators from 19 nations.

Garber chairs the Centers for Medicareand Medicaid Services’ Medicare CoverageAdvisory Committee and serves on the senioradvisory board of the Gates Global HealthPolicy Research Network. He has served as aconsultant to the Institute of Medicine, theCongressional Office of Technology Assessment,and the Clinical Efficacy Assessment Project

of the American College ofPhysicians.

His research focuseson methods for improvinghealthcare delivery andfinancing—particularly for the elderly—insettings of limited resources. He has developedmethods for determining the cost-effectivenessof health interventions, and he studies ways tostructure financial and organizational incentivesto ensure that cost-effective care is delivered.In addition, his research explores how clinicalpractice patterns and healthcare marketcharacteristics influence technology adoption,health expenditures, and health outcomes inthe United States and other countries.

He received an AB, MS, and PhD in eco-nomics from Harvard University and an MDfrom the Stanford School of Medicine.

Siegfried S. Hecker is a visiting professor atthe Center for International Security andCooperation (CISAC) and an emeritus directorof Los Alamos National Laboratory. Hecker’sresearch interests include plutonium science,nuclear weapons policy and internationalsecurity, nuclear security (including nonprolifer-ation and counter terrorism), and cooperativenuclear threat reduction. Over the past 15 years,he has fostered cooperation with the Russiannuclear laboratories to secure and safeguardthe vast stockpile of ex-Soviet fissile materials.His current interests include the challenges ofnuclear India, Pakistan, North Korea, and thenuclear aspirations of Iran. Hecker worksclosely with the Russian Academy of Sciencesand is actively involved with the U.S. NationalAcademies, serving on the National Academyof Engineering Council and its InternationalPrograms Committee, as chair of the Committeeon Counterterrorism Challenges for Russia

and the United States, and as a member of the National AcademiesCommittee onInternational Security and Arms Control Nonproliferation Panel.

Hecker joined Los Alamos NationalLaboratory as a graduate research assistant andpostdoctoral fellow before returning as a tech-nical staff member following a tenure at GeneralMotors Research. He led the laboratory’sMaterials Science and Technology Division andCenter for Materials Science before serving aslaboratory director from 1986 through 1997,and senior fellow until July 2005. Among hisprofessional distinctions, Hecker is a memberof the National Academy of Engineering and a foreign member of the Russian Academy ofSciences. He earned his bachelor’s, master’s,and doctoral degrees in metallurgy from CaseWestern Reserve University.


ALAN M. GARBER

SIEGFRIED S. HECKER

Thomas C. Heller is the Lewis Talbot andNadine Hearn Shelton Professor of InternationalLegal Studies, coordinator of the Rule ofLaw Program at the Center on Democracy,Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL)at Stanford University, and an FSI and WoodsInstitute for the Environment senior fellow. Hiswork focuses on international law and politicaleconomy, law and development, energy lawand policy, and environmental law.

Heller has been on the Stanford facultysince 1979 and has served as associate dean ofthe Law School (1997–2000), deputy directorof the Freeman Spogli Institute for InternationalStudies (1989–92), and director of the OverseasStudies Program (1985–92). He was a memberof the faculty at the University of Wisconsinfrom 1971 to 1979, and served as co-directorof the Center for Public Representation inMadison, Wisconsin, during 1976–77. He hasbeen a visiting professor at several institutions,

including Hong KongUniversity, the EuropeanUniversity Institute, theCatholic University ofLouvain, and the Center forLaw and Economics at the University of Miami.

He has co-authored a number of workingpapers, book chapters, and journal articles,including Electricity Reforms in India: FirmChoices and Emerging Generation Markets(McGraw Hill, 2004) and a chapter onDevelopment and Climate: Engaging DevelopingCountries for the Pew Center on GlobalClimate Change’s “Beyond Kyoto” volume(2003, with P.R. Shukla).

He received an AB from Princeton Universityand an LLB (law degree) from Yale University.

Fred Hu is a managing director at GoldmanSachs (Asia) L.L.C., responsible for the firm’sChina strategy and investment banking opera-tions. Since 1996 he has served as co-directorand a senior fellow (non-resident) of theNational Center for Economic Research atTsinghua University in Beijing, where hecontinues to teach a graduate course in inter-national finance.

Before joining Goldman Sachs as chiefeconomist for China in 1997, Hu was a staffmember at the International Monetary Fund(IMF) in Washington, D.C., where he wasengaged in macroeconomic research and policyconsultations for a number of member countrygovernments including China. He has advisedthe Chinese government on financial reform,pension reform, and macroeconomic policies,and also sits on the advisory board for ChinaHuarong Asset Management Company and theSouth China Morning Post.

Hu has publishedextensively on China, Asia-Pacific economies, andfinancial markets. His latestbook (co-authored withJonathan Anderson), The Five Great Mythsabout China and the World, has been translatedinto and published in Chinese by a mainlandChina publishing house. He is a member of theeditorial board of several academic journalsincluding International Economic Review, andis a columnist for Caijin, China’s leadingfinancial and business magazine.

He holds an MS in engineering science fromTsinghua University, as well as an MA and aPhD in economics from Harvard University.


THOMAS C. HELLER

FRED HU

Josef Joffe is the Marc and Anita AbramowitzFellow in International Relations at the HooverInstitution, a distinguished fellow at the FreemanSpogli Institute, and an adjunct professor ofpolitical science at Stanford University. His areasof interest are U.S. foreign policy, internationalsecurity policy, European-American relations,Europe and Germany, and the Middle East.

Joffe is publisher-editor of the Germanweekly Die Zeit and previously was columnist/editorial page editor of Süddeutsche Zeitung.His essays and reviews have appeared in theNew York Review of Books, Times LiterarySupplement, Commentary, New York TimesMagazine, New Republic, Weekly Standard,and the Prospect (London). His second careerhas been in academia. In addition to hiscurrent posts at Stanford, he was the PayneDistinguished Lecturer in 1999–2000. He hastaught at Harvard and remains an associate ofthe Olin Institute for Strategic Studies; he has

also taught at DartmouthCollege, PrincetonUniversity’s WoodrowWilson School, The JohnsHopkins School ofAdvanced International Studies, University ofMunich, and the Salzburg Seminar.

His scholarly work has appeared in ForeignAffairs, National Interest, International Security,and Foreign Policy, as well as professionaljournals in Germany, Britain, and France. Hismost recent book is Überpower: The ImperialTemptation of America (W.W. Norton, June2006). He is also the author of The Future ofInternational Politics: The Great Powers andThe Limited Partnership: Europe, the UnitedStates and the Burdens of Alliance.

Reared in Berlin, Joffe obtained his PhDin government from Harvard University.

Michael A. McFaul is an associate professor ofpolitical science at Stanford University, deputydirector of the Freeman Spogli Institute forInternational Studies, director of the Center onDemocracy, Development, and the Rule ofLaw (CDDRL), and the Peter and Helen BingSenior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, wherehe co-directs the Iran Democracy Project. Hiswork focuses on American foreign policy, thepolitical economy of post-communism, andregime change in non-democratic states.

Before joining the Stanford faculty in 1995,McFaul was a senior associate of the CarnegieEndowment for International Peace in residenceat the Moscow Carnegie Center. McFaulreturned to Stanford this summer after a yearin Washington, D.C. with the Stanford-in-Washington program and the CarnegieEndowment for International Peace.

A globally acknowledged and admiredexpert on U.S.-Russian relations, democratization

in the post-communistworld, and American effortsat democracy promotionabroad, McFaul is theauthor and editor ofnumerous books and scholarly articles, includinghis latest book, edited with Anders Aslund,Revolution in Orange: The Origins of Ukraine’sDemocratic Breakthrough (Carnegie Endowmentfor International Peace, 2006). His articleshave appeared in numerous journals includingConstitutional Political Economy, ForeignAffairs, Foreign Policy, International Security,Journal of Democracy, Policy Review, andPolitical Science Quarterly.

McFaul received a BA in internationalrelations and Slavic languages and an MA inSlavic and East European studies, both fromStanford University. He was awarded a Rhodesscholarship to Oxford University, where hecompleted his PhD in international relations.


JOSEF JOFFE

MICHAEL A. MCFAUL

Abbas M. Milani is a visiting professor in theDepartment of Political Science and directorof the Iranian Studies Program at StanfordUniversity. In addition, he is a research fellowand co-director of the Iran Democracy Projectat the Hoover Institution. His expertise is inU.S./Iran relations and Iranian cultural, political,and security issues.

Milani was a professor of history andpolitical science and chair of the departmentat Notre Dame de Namur University and aresearch fellow at the Institute of InternationalStudies at the University of California, Berkeley.From 1979 to 1987, he was an assistantprofessor in the faculty of law and politicalscience at Tehran University and a memberof the board of directors of Tehran University’sCenter for International Studies.

Milani is the author of a number of books,including Lost Wisdom: Rethinking PersianModernity in Iran (Mage 2004); The Persian

Sphinx: Amir AbbasHoveyda and the Riddle ofthe Iranian Revolution(Mage, 2000); Modernityand Its Foes in Iran(Gardon Press, 1998); and Tales of Two Cities:A Persian Memoir (Mage, 1996). His articleshave been published in publications such as theNew York Review of Books, Journal of theMiddle East, and Times Literary Supplement,and he has been interviewed for the BBC,CNN, KQED, Radio France, Radio Farda, RadioFree Europe, Radio and Television of Iran,and Voice of America.

Milani received a BA in political science andeconomics from the University of California,Berkeley and a PhD in political science fromthe University of Hawaii.

Rosamond L. Naylor is the Julie Wrigley SeniorFellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute forInternational Studies and the Woods Institutefor the Environment at Stanford University,director of the Goldman Honors Program inEnvironmental Science, Technology, and Policy,director of the Program on Food Security andthe Environment, and an associate professor ofeconomics, by courtesy. She also teaches courseson the world food economy and sustainableagriculture for the Interdisciplinary PhD Programin Environment and Resources. Her researchfocuses on the environmental and equity dimen-sions of intensive food production.

Naylor has been involved in a number offield-level research projects throughout theworld concerning issues of aquaculture pro-duction, high-input agricultural development,biotechnology, climate-induced yield variability,and food security. She was named Fellow in the Aldo Leopold Leadership Program in

Environmental Sciences in 1999 and Pew Fellow in Conservation and the Environment in 1994, and has served on theOversight Committee for the McKnightFoundation’s Collaborative Crop ResearchProgram since 1997.

She received a BA in economics andenvironmental studies from the University ofColorado, an MS in economics from theLondon School of Economics, and a PhD inapplied economics from Stanford University.


ROSAMOND L. NAYLOR

ABBAS M. MILANI

Michael T. Osterholm is a professor in theSchool of Public Health at the University ofMinnesota, director of the university’s Centerfor Infectious Disease Research and Policy(CIDRAP), and associate director of theDepartment of Homeland Security’s NationalCenter for Food Protection and Defense. InJune 2005 he was appointed by MichaelLeavitt, secretary of the Department of Healthand Human Services, to the newly establishedNational Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity.

In addition to his role at CIDRAP, from2001 through early 2005 Osterholm served asa special advisor to Tommy G. Thompson,then secretary of Health and Human Services,on issues related to bioterrorism and publichealth preparedness. He was also appointedto the secretary’s Advisory Council on PublicHealth Preparedness. From 1975 to 1999 heserved in various roles at the MinnesotaDepartment of Health, the last 15 as state

epidemiologist and chief of the Acute DiseaseEpidemiology Section.

Osterholm, who holdsa PhD and MPH, has beenan international leader on assuring globalpreparedness for an influenza pandemic andpreventing the use of biological agents ascatastrophic weapons targeting civilian popu-lations. The author of more than 300 papersand abstracts, he recently published the NewYork Times bestselling book Living Terrors:What America Needs to Know to Survive theComing Bioterrorist Catastrophe. He hasserved as a consultant to the World HealthOrganization, the National Institutes ofHealth, the Food and Drug Administration,the Department of Defense, and the Centersfor Disease Control and Prevention.

Douglas K. Owens is a professor of medicineand, by courtesy, of health research and policyat the Stanford School of Medicine, a corefaculty member at CHP/PCOR, a generalinternist, and a senior investigator at the VAPalo Alto Health Care System. He directs theStanford-UCSF Evidence-based Practice Center,the Program on Clinical Decision Making andGuideline Development at PCOR, the Palo AltoVA’s Ambulatory Care Fellowship Program,and the VA’s Postdoctoral Informatics Program,and serves as associate director of theFellowship Program in Health Research andPolicy at Stanford.

Owens’ research focuses on technologyassessment, cost-effectiveness analysis, evidencesynthesis, and methods for clinical decisionmaking. He is studying the cost effectiveness ofpreventive and therapeutic interventions forHIV/AIDS, diagnostic and therapeutic interven-tions for cardiovascular disease, approaches

to quality improvement,and strategies to respondto bioterrorism attacks. He has also developedmethods for producingclinical practice guidelines tailored to specificpatient populations. He chairs the AmericanCollege of Physicians’ Clinical EfficacyAssessment Subcommittee (CEAS), whichdevelops clinical guidelines that are used widelyand are published regularly in the Annals ofInternal Medicine.

Owens received a BS and an MS fromStanford University and an MD from theUniversity of California-San Francisco.


DOUGLAS K. OWENS

MICHAEL T. OSTERHOLM

Hugo Paemen is an adjunct professor at theBMW Center for German and European Studiesat the Edmund A. Walsh School of ForeignService at Georgetown University. He is alsosenior advisor for Hogan and Hartson L.L.P.and the German Marshall Fund, and specialadvisor to the president of the EuropeanCommission.

From 1995 to 1999, Paemen served asEuropean Union ambassador to the UnitedStates. Previously, he was Deputy DirectorGeneral for External Relations at the EuropeanCommission (1987–95) and successfully ledthe European negotiation team at the WTO-Uruguay Round. He also served as spokesmanfor European Commission President JacquesDelors (1985–87), and chief of staff forEuropean Commission Vice-President ViscountEtienne Davignon (1978–85). A career diplo-mat, he earlier served in the Belgian embassiesin Geneva, Paris, and Washington, D.C.

Paemen has degrees in philosophy and classicsand political and social science. He has been a visiting professor at theKatholieke Universiteit Leuven, and is theco-author of From the GATT to the WTO: TheEuropean Community in the Uruguay Round(with Alexandra Bensch). He has contributedto several other books relating to currentdiplomatic and trade issues.

Elisabeth Paté-Cornell is the Burt and DeedeeMcMurtry Professor in the School of Engineeringat Stanford University, chair of the Committeeon Research, chair of the Department ofManagement Science and Engineering since itscreation in January 2000, and senior fellow(by courtesy) of the Freeman Spogli Institute.With Coit Blacker, she is co-chair of theStanford International Initiative and chair ofthe International Initiative Faculty AdvisoryCommittee. She is also a member of thePresident’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board,the National Academy of Engineering and itscouncil, the board of Aerospace Corporation,and the Naval Postgraduate School. Herprimary areas of teaching and research are engi-neering risk analysis and risk management.

From 1978 to 1981, Paté-Cornell wasassistant professor of Civil Engineering at theMassachusetts Institute of Technology, and thena faculty member at Stanford in the department

of Industrial Engineering andEngineering Managementfrom 1981 to 1999 beforeoverseeing in 2000 thecreation of the ManagementScience and Engineering Department.

Paté-Cornell’s research, in recent years, hasfocused on the extension of probabilistic riskanalysis models to include organizationalfactors with application to a wide variety ofproblems such as the management of the tilesof the space shuttle, offshore platforms duringoil and gas production, and anesthesia duringsurgery. She is currently working on earlyassessment of medical devices, software failurerisks, and counter-terrorism.

Paté-Cornell received her Engineer Degree incomputer science from the Institut Polytechniqueof Grenoble, France, a master’s degree inoperations research and a PhD in engineering-economic systems, both from Stanford University.


HUGO PAEMEN

ELISABETH PATÉ-CORNELL

David S. Patel is a PhD candidate in theDepartment of Political Science at StanfordUniversity and a pre-doctoral fellow specializingin Middle Eastern politics at the Center onDemocracy, Development, and the Rule of Law.His research investigates the role of Islamicinstitutions in facilitating collective action,especially under authoritarian conditions.

In 2003–04, Patel conducted independentresearch in Iraq on the role of mosques andclerical networks in creating social order. Heis a frequent media analyst on Iraqi politicsand Islam. He has also conducted researchin Jordan, Syria, Yemen, and China on stateoversight of Islamic institutions, mosqueactivities, and Islamist movements.

Beginning in July 2007, he will be an assistant professor in the Department ofGovernment at CornellUniversity.

Patel received his BA in political science andeconomics from Duke University.

Scott Rozelle is the Helen F. Farnsworth SeniorFellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute forInternational Studies. He is also chair of theInternational Advisory Board of the Centerfor Chinese Agricultural Policy, a co-director ofthe Agricultural Issues Center at the Universityof California, and a member of Stanford’s newFood Security and the Environment program.

Before arriving at Stanford, Rozelle wasa professor at the University of California,Davis and an assistant professor in the FoodResearch Institute and Department ofEconomics at Stanford University. He is fluentin Chinese and has established a researchprogram in which he has close working ties withseveral Chinese collaborators and policymakers.

In the past several years, Rozelle’s papershave been published in top academic journals,including Science, Nature, American EconomicReview, and the Journal of Economic Literature.Rozelle’s research focuses almost exclusively

on China and is concernedwith three general themes:a) agricultural policy,including the supply,demand, and trade in agricultural projects; b) the emergence andevolution of markets and other economicinstitutions in the transition process and theirimplications for equity and efficiency; and c)the economics of poverty and inequality.

Rozelle received a BS from the Universityof California, Berkeley and an MS and PhDfrom Cornell University.


DAVID S. PATEL

SCOTT ROZELLE

Scott D. Sagan is a professor of political scienceat Stanford University, director of the Centerfor International Security and Cooperation(CISAC), and an FSI senior fellow. His researchfocuses on nuclear security and the emergingterrorist threat, nuclear proliferation in SouthAsia, ethics and international relations, andaccidents in complex organizations.

Before joining the Stanford faculty, Saganwas a lecturer in the Department of Governmentat Harvard University and served as a specialassistant to the director of the Organization ofthe Joint Chiefs of Staff in the Pentagon. Hehas also served as a consultant to the officeof the Secretary of Defense and at the LosAlamos National Laboratory. As part of CISAC’smission of training the next generation ofsecurity specialists, he founded Stanford’sInterschool Honors Program in InternationalSecurity Studies in 2000.

Sagan is the author of Moving Targets:

Nuclear Strategy andNational Security(Princeton, 1989), TheLimits of Safety:Organizations, Accidents,and Nuclear Weapons (Princeton, 1993), andco-author with Kenneth N. Waltz of TheSpread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed(W.W. Norton, 2002). Sagan’s recent articleon “Keeping the Bomb Away from Tehran” wasfeatured in the September/October issue ofForeign Affairs. He is also finishing a collectionof essays for a book tentatively entitled AFragile Peace: Understanding Our NuclearHistory and Nuclear Future.

Sagan received a BA in government fromOberlin College and a PhD in political sciencefrom Harvard University.

James J. Sheehan is the Dickason Professor inthe Humanities at Stanford University, aprofessor of history, and an FSI senior fellowby courtesy. He is an expert on the historyof modern Europe.

Sheehan has written widely on the historyof Germany, including four books and manyarticles. His most recent book is Museums inthe German Art World: From the End of theOld Regime to the Rise of Modernism (Oxford,2000). He is now writing a book about warand the European state in the 20th century.His other recent publications are chapters on“Democracy” and “Political History,” whichappear in the International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences (2002),and a chapter on “Germany,” which appearsin The Encyclopedia of the Enlightenment(Oxford, 2002).

Sheehan is a member of the AmericanAcademy of Arts and Sciences and the American

Philosophical Society. In2004 he was elected president of the AmericanHistorical Association. He received a BA fromStanford and an MA and PhD from theUniversity of California at Berkeley.


JAMES J . SHEEHAN

SCOTT D. SAGAN

Gi-Wook Shin is an associate professor ofsociology, director of the Walter H. ShorensteinAsia-Pacific Research Center (ShorensteinAPARC), founding director of the Korean StudiesProgram, and an FSI senior fellow. A historical-comparative and political sociologist, hisresearch has concentrated on areas of socialmovements, nationalism, development, andinternational relations. Shin is also co-editorof the Journal of Korean Studies.

Before coming to Stanford, Shin taught atthe University of Iowa and UCLA. He has servedas acting director of the UCLA Center forKorean Studies, as guest columnist for the KoreaCentral Daily and the Korea Times (U.S.edition), and on other councils and advisoryboards in the United States and Korea.

Shin is the author/editor of many booksand articles including Ethnic Nationalism inKorea: Genealogy, Politics and Legacy (2006),North Korea: 2005 and Beyond (2006),

Contentious Kwangju(2004), and ColonialModernity in Korea(1999). His articles haveappeared in academicjournals such as the American Journal ofSociology, Nations and Nationalism,Comparative Studies in Society and History,International Sociology, and Asian Survey.He also co-edited a volume on RethinkingHistorical Injustice and Reconciliation inNortheast Asia (in press). Shin is currentlywriting a book on U.S.-Korean relations (withKyu Sup Hahn), which is based on analyses ofmore than 8,000 newspaper articles publishedin American and South Korean media from1992 to 2004.

Shin received a BA from Yonsei Universityin Korea and an MA and PhD from theUniversity of Washington.

Daniel C. Sneider is associate director forresearch at Shorenstein APARC. His currentresearch interests are alliance and generationalchange in Northeast Asia.

Sneider was the foreign affairs columnistof the San Jose Mercury News, where histwice-weekly column was syndicated nationallyon the Knight Ridder Tribune wire serviceand reached about 400 newspapers in NorthAmerica. He came to the Mercury News fromthe Christian Science Monitor, most recentlyas the San Francisco bureau chief covering theWestern United States and California.

Sneider has had a long career as a foreigncorrespondent. As the Moscow bureau chiefof the Christian Science Monitor, he coveredthe end of Soviet Communism and the collapseof the Soviet Union. Previously he was theTokyo correspondent for the Monitor, coveringJapan and Korea; he has also worked as acorrespondent in India, covering South and

Southeast Asia, travelingextensively in both regions.

Sneider’s writings have appeared in manypublications, including the New Republic, National Review, FarEastern Economic Review, Time, InternationalHerald Tribune, Financial Times, DallasMorning News, and Sacramento Bee. Followinghis work in Moscow, Sneider was a visitingscholar at Stanford’s Center for InternationalSecurity and Arms Control (now CISAC),funded by a grant from the U.S. Institute forPeace, studying ethnic conflict in the Caucasusregion of the former Soviet Union. His workon this subject was published by CISAC andthe Christian Science Monitor.


GI-WOOK SHIN

DANIEL C. SNEIDER

Stephen J. Stedman is a senior fellow at theCenter for International Security and Cooperation(CISAC) and Freeman Spogli Institute (FSI),and director of the Ford Dorsey Program inInternational Policy Studies at Stanford University.

In 2003–2004 Stedman was researchdirector of the United Nations High-level Panelon Threats, Challenges, and Change, and theprincipal drafter of its report, A More SecureWorld: Our Shared Responsibility. In 2005he served as assistant secretary general andspecial advisor to the secretary general of theUnited Nations, with responsibility for workingwith governments to adopt the panel’s recom-mendations on strengthening collective securityand for implementing key changes withinthe United Nations Secretariat, including thecreation of a Peacebuilding Support Office,a Counter Terrorism Task Force, and a PolicyCommittee that acts as a cabinet to the secretary general.

Stedman is a leadingexpert on civil wars andconflict management.Recent books includeEnding Civil Wars, whichexamines the determinants of successful imple-mentation of peace agreements, and RefugeeManipulation, which studies how warringparties and states attempt to manipulate theinternational refugee regime.

His current research addresses the futureof international organizations and institutions,an area of study inspired by his recent workat the United Nations. He received a PhD inpolitical science from Stanford.

Kathryn Stoner-Weiss is associate director forresearch and a senior research scholar at theCenter on Democracy, Development, and theRule of Law (CDDRL) at Stanford University.Her research focuses on comparative state-building and effective governance, politicaleconomy of developing countries, and Russiandomestic and international politics.

Prior to coming to Stanford, she was onthe faculty of Princeton University. She alsoserved as a visiting associate professor ofpolitical science at Columbia University, andan assistant professor of political science atMcGill University. She has held fellowships atHarvard University as well as the WoodrowWilson Center in Washington, D.C.

In addition to many articles and bookchapters on contemporary Russia, she is co-editor (with Michael McFaul) of After theCollapse of Communism: Comparative Lessonsof Transition (Cambridge, 2004) and author

of Resisting the State:Reform and Retrenchmentin Post-Soviet Russia(Cambridge, 2006) andLocal Heroes: The PoliticalEconomy of Russian Regional Governance(Princeton, 1997).

She received a BA and MA in politicalscience from the University of Toronto and aPhD in government from Harvard University.


KATHRYN STONER-WEISS

STEPHEN J . STEDMAN

David G. Victor is a professor of law, FSI seniorfellow, and director of the Program on Energyand Sustainable Development (PESD) atStanford University. He is also the director of theCouncil on Foreign Relations’ IndependentTask Force on Energy and U.S. Foreign Policy.

Previously, Victor directed the Council’sScience and Technology program, studyingthe sources of technological innovation andthe impact of innovation on economic growth.His research also examined global warmingpolicy, forest protection, and genetically modi-fied food. Before joining the Council, Victordirected a three-year multinational researchproject on the implementation of internationalenvironmental treaties at the InternationalInstitute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)in Laxenburg, Austria. His IIASA researchexamined how the international system monitors,verifies, and enforces compliance with envi-ronmental treaties.

Victor’s publicationsinclude The Collapse of theKyoto Protocol and theStruggle to Slow GlobalWarming (Princeton, 2001),Technological Innovation and EconomicPerformance (Princeton, 2002, co-edited withBenn Steil and Richard Nelson), and an editedbook of case studies on the implementation ofinternational environmental agreements (MIT,1998). He is author of more than 70 essaysand articles in scholarly journals, magazines,and newspapers, including Climatic Change,Foreign Affairs, Los Angeles Times, Nature,New York Times, New York University Journalof International Law and Politics, ScientificAmerican, and the Washington Post.

He holds a BA in history and science fromHarvard University and a PhD in political science(international relations) from the MassachusettsInstitute of Technology.

Lawrence M. Wein is the Paul E. HoldenProfessor of Management Science at theGraduate School of Business and a CISACfaculty affiliate. His research interests includemathematical models in operations management,medicine, and biology.

Before joining the Stanford faculty, Weinspent 14 years at the Sloan School ofManagement at the Massachusetts Institute ofTechonology, where he was the DEC Leadersfor Manufacturing Professor of ManagementScience. He has won several awards, includingthe 1993 Erlang Prize for the outstandingapplied probabilist under age 35 and the 2002Koopman Prize for the best paper in militaryoperations research. He is currently editor-in-chief of Operations Research.

Since 2001, Wein has analyzed a variety ofhomeland security problems. His homelandsecurity work includes papers in the Proceedingsof the National Academy of Sciences, on an

emergency response to a smallpox attack, an emergency response to ananthrax attack, a biometricanalysis of the US-VISITProgram, and an analysis of a bioterror attackon the milk supply. His published op-ed piecesinclude “Unready for Anthrax” (2003) in theWashington Post and “Got Toxic Milk?” inthe New York Times. He has also publishedpapers on port security, indoor remediationafter an anthrax attack, and the detention andremoval of illegal aliens.

Wein received a PhD in operations researchfrom Stanford University.


DAVID G. VICTOR

LAWRENCE M. WEIN

Jeremy M. Weinstein is an assistant professorof political science at Stanford University andan affiliated faculty member at the Center onDemocracy, Development, and the Rule ofLaw (CDDRL) and the Center for InternationalSecurity and Cooperation (CISAC).

Previously, Weinstein was a research fellowat the Center for Global Development, wherehe directed the bipartisan Commission onWeak States and U.S. National Security. Hehas also worked on the National SecurityCouncil staff, served as a visiting scholar at theWorld Bank, was a fellow at the WoodrowWilson International Center for Scholars, andreceived a research fellowship in foreign policystudies at the Brookings Institution.

While working on his PhD, he conductedhundreds of interviews with rebel combatantsand civilians in both Africa and Latin Americafor his forthcoming book, Inside Rebellion:The Politics of Insurgent Violence (Cambridge,

September 2006). An experton countries in transition,he is the author of a recentop-ed piece on Liberia and,along with Dr. DavidKatzenstein, a winner of the first round ofgrants from Stanford’s new President’s Fund forInnovation in International Studies for theirproject on Combating HIV/AIDS in SouthernAfrica: The Treatment Revolution and Its Impacton Health, Well-Being, and Governance.

Weinstein received a BA with high honorsfrom Swarthmore College, and an MA andPhD in political economy and government fromHarvard University.

Xiyu Yang is a Pantech Fellow at ShorensteinAPARC for the 2006–2007 academic year. Heis also director of the Office for the KoreanPeninsula Issues in the Chinese Ministry ofForeign Affairs. The office was set up inJanuary 2004, when Yang was its first directorto deal with the nuclear issue on the KoreanPeninsula, as well as affairs relating to theSix-Party Talks.

He began his involvement in issues relatedto the Korean Peninsula in 1994, when heworked in the Chinese Embassy in the UnitedStates. During the following years, he tookpart in the launch of the Four-Party Talks andwas the representative for the Chinese sidein the working-level meeting of the talks, aswell as a member of the Chinese Delegationin the Four-Party Talks that were held in NewYork and Geneva.

He was awarded the National Award forOutstanding Contribution to Social Science

Studies by the StateCouncil of China and theHonorable Allowance for National DistinguishedExperts.

His research interests include NortheastAsian security issues, including the armisticeending the Korean War; the Four-Party andthe Six-Party Talks, both of which he wasintensively involved in; and the future of rela-tions on the Korean Peninsula.


XIYU YANG

JEREMY M. WEINSTEIN


The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) is StanfordUniversity’s primary forum for examination of the major international issuesof our time.

FSI consists of five major research centers:• Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL); • Center for Environmental Science and Policy (CESP); • Center for Health Policy/Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research

(CHP/PCOR); • Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC);• Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC).

FSI also has five programs: the Forum on Contemporary Europe (FCE), theInitiative on Distance Learning (IDL), the Program on Energy and SustainableDevelopment (PESD), the Program on Global Justice, and the StanfordProgram on International and Cross-cultural Education (SPICE).

FSI draws together more than 150 Stanford faculty, researchers, and visitingscholars. It has a number of joint faculty appointments with other schools atStanford: business, law, medicine, earth sciences, education, engineering, andhumanities and sciences. It also brings visitors to FSI from other academic,government, non-profit, and corporate institutions worldwide.

Although FSI does not grant degrees, it has active programs for training andteaching both graduate and undergraduate students. It also has two under-graduate honors programs, the Goldman Honors Program in EnvironmentalScience, Technology, and Policy, and the CISAC Interschool Honors Programin International Security Studies.

The majority of FSI’s activities are supported by research grants and by giftsfrom individual and corporate donors.

For more information, please call 650-723-4581 or visit our website at:http://fsi.stanford.edu

Freeman Spogli Institute for InternationalStudies at Stanford

For More Information,Please Contact:

Administration:

Belinda Byrne

Phone: 650-725-7484

[email protected]

Communications:

Judith Paulus

Phone: 650-723-8490

[email protected]

Development:

Evelyn Kelsey

Phone: 650-725-4206

[email protected]

FREEMAN SPOGLI INSTITUTE

FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

Stanford University

Encina Hall

Stanford, CA 94305-6055

Phone: 650-723-4581

Fax: 650-724-2592

http://fsi.stanford.edu

A WORLD AT RISK · a world at risk the freeman spogli institute for international studies at...

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