A Workshop on the DOE Model of the dynamics of expanding the transportation fuel supply chain

October 25, 2006Biomass Scenario Model Workshop

Agenda7:30Continental Breakfast8:00Welcome and Introductions8:15Purpose of Meeting Expectations for Participants and DOE Background on this Modeling EffortOverview of the Model Big Picture9:00Detailed description and discussion of Conversion & Investment10:00Break10:15Detailed description and discussion of Feedstock & Deployment11:15Base run & Scenarios11:45Discussion in groups of what should be demonstrated12:15Catered Lunch and Break1:00Model Execution/Discussions of OutcomesRevisit Expectations Results of group discussions Clarification/Orientation Interactive case demonstration from group result2:30Close out Summarize what weve Heard3:00Adjourn

BackgroundDOE-OBP has a need to better understand drivers and constraints on the ultimate deployment of billions of gallons of ethanol

DOE-OBP has sponsored the development of a dynamic model describing possible future scenarios of how biofuels will deploy in the marketplace

Purpose of the modelUnderstand how DOE activities might influence the ultimate ethanol deploymentExplore what else (outside of DOE) might be needed to reach the desired deployment levels

Purpose of this MeetingGather a small group of Stakeholders knowledgeable in the various aspects of biomass deployment depicted in the model

Spend enough time reviewing what is involved in the model to enable everyone to discuss and comment on the its usefulness for the purpose intended

Have the discussion and collect comments

OutcomesParticipants will gain a thorough understanding of this modeling effort and how it might be useful to DOE and to their own work

DOE will obtain comments on the model as tohow well it can or ultimately will be able to address the stated objectiveson whether or not this is a useful approach to gaining insight into future deployment

DOE will use these comments to improve the model

Based on the Supply ChainModel Highlights

Test

Sourcesof Data & Information

The Complex Interactions

The language of system dynamicsPopulationBeing bornDying

The language of system dynamics

Getting to 60 bgy60,18256,89242,69124,49922,309

Getting to 60 bgy

One of the Influences - Conversion Cost

Nominal priceTarget price at first seems very competitiveBut remember our definitions

Nominal priceFirst lets correct for Btu content

Nominal priceThen add cost for taxes, marketing and distributionResult is that a nominal price of $1.07 per gallon of ethanol is equivalent to $2.25 per gallon

Risk-inflated price of new technology

Improvements are Underway - Conceptual Overview of Version 2.0

Summary of Ver. 2 Anticipated Structural Changes/EnhancementsOverall Architecture:Modular (modules runnable in isolation or in combination)High level regional disaggregation (facilitates analysis of regional differencese.g., corn belt, areas of concentration of autos)Anticipated changes to each module in the table below:

What Youll See TodayA Fully Functioning, but Version 1 of the Model

FuelMarketplaceConversionR&DConversionFacilitiesInvestmentFeedstockProductionFeedstockCostVehicleDynamicsLand Use

What Youll See TodayFuelMarketplaceConversionR&DConversionFacilitiesInvestmentFeedstockProductionFeedstockCostVehicleDynamicsLand UseLand UseAllocate agricultural lands between switch grass & other uses

What Youll See TodayFuelMarketplaceConversionR&DConversionFacilitiesInvestmentFeedstockProductionFeedstockCostVehicleDynamicsLand UseFeedstock ProductionCalculate total Switch grass and Ag and Forest Residue productionCalculate switch grass yield

What Youll See TodayFuelMarketplaceConversionR&DConversionFacilitiesInvestmentFeedstockProductionFeedstockCostVehicleDynamicsLand UseFeedstock CostDetermine the cost of feedstock delivered to the plant gate(including the grower payment)

What Youll See TodayFuelMarketplaceConversionR&DConversionFacilitiesInvestmentFeedstockProductionFeedstockCostVehicleDynamicsLand UseConversion R&DHow the funding impacts the technology developmentas measured by process yield & capital growth

What Youll See TodayFuelMarketplaceConversionR&DConversionFacilitiesInvestmentFeedstockProductionFeedstockCostVehicleDynamicsLand UseInvestmentDetermine the capital costDetermine the operating costs & the ultimate cost of EthanolDecide if it is attractive to build facilities

What Youll See TodayFuelMarketplaceConversionR&DConversionFacilitiesInvestmentFeedstockProductionFeedstockCostVehicleDynamicsLand UseConversion FacilitiesBuild the plantsDetermine the yield and capacityDetermine the demand for feedstock

What Youll See TodayFuelMarketplaceConversionR&DConversionFacilitiesInvestmentFeedstockProductionFeedstockCostVehicleDynamicsLand UseFuel MarketplaceDetermine the Price of GasolineDetermine the Price of Corn Ethanol

What Youll See TodayFuelMarketplaceConversionR&DConversionFacilitiesInvestmentFeedstockProductionFeedstockCostVehicleDynamicsLand UseVehicle DynamicsDetermine the number of Ethanol Powered VehiclesDetermine the fuel economy of the Fleetand Hence the Ethanol Demand

Agenda7:30Continental Breakfast8:00Welcome and Introductions8:15Purpose of Meeting Expectations for Participants and DOE Background on this Modeling EffortOverview of the Model Big Picture9:00Detailed description and discussion of Conversion & Investment10:00Break10:15Detailed description and discussion of Feedstock & Deployment11:15Base run & Scenarios11:45Discussion in groups of what should be demonstrated12:15Catered Lunch and Break1:00 Model Execution/Discussions of Outcomes Revisit Expectations Results of group discussions Clarification/Orientation Interactive case demonstration from group result2:30Close out Summarize what weve Heard3:00Adjourn