A vision for FermilabA vision for Fermilab

Presentation to P5Fermilab 9/12/05

Pier Oddone

22

Driven by physicsDriven by physics

Where the largest mysteries are:

We know next to nothing about the next accessible energy scale: witness the plethora of models

We know very little about the world of neutrinos We are ignorant about what dark matter and dark energy are

We have strong clues that these are the hunting grounds for major new discoveries

We also believe there is a deep connection between all these areas

33

Strategic context: U.S. contributionStrategic context: U.S. contribution

2005

2015

2010

= secondary= leading Neutrino

FrontierFlavorfrontier

EnergyFrontier

Domestic accelerator program with no new investment

X

44

Strategic context: U.S. contributionStrategic context: U.S. contribution

2005

2015

2010

= secondary= leading Neutrino

FrontierFlavorfrontier

EnergyFrontier

Domestic accelerator program with new and redirected investment

X

55

Enable the most powerful attack on the fundamental science questions of our time

Provide world class facilities for HEP as part of the global network

Develop science and technology for particle physics and cosmology research

Specific Goal: make vital contributions to particle physics in the next decade by:

Developing a powerful new tool for discovery at the energy frontier (ILC)

Maintaining the foremost neutrino program (NOvA, proton driver(s),+)

Overarching Goals:

New Initiatives at FermilabNew Initiatives at Fermilab

66

The Energy Frontier (ILC)The Energy Frontier (ILC)

Goals:

Establish all technical components, costs, engineering designs, management structures to enable “early” decision (by 2010).

Position US (and Fermilab) to host the ILC.

Position US (and Fermilab) to play major roles in detector development and physics analysis.

This is the highest priority initiative for the laboratory

77

The Energy Frontier: why ILC?The Energy Frontier: why ILC?

We expect the greatest richness at the energy frontier

Few phenomena will manifest themselves in only one machine

theories

Purely ILC Purely LHCWe will build on the foundation of LHC to make major discoveries at ILC

88

ILC/LHC Physics: new particleILC/LHC Physics: new particle

LHC experiments find a new heavy particle, Z’

Able to show that Z’ mediates a new force of nature

This is a great discovery

Notice peak is ½ event per bin per fb-1

99

LHC/ILC Physics: new particle LHC/ILC Physics: new particle

ILC measures couplings of Z’ to find out what it means

If here, related to origin of neutrino masses

If here, related to origin of Higgs

If here, Z’ comes from an extra dimension of space

These are great discoveries!

1010

LHC/ILC physics: CP violationLHC/ILC physics: CP violation

Example SignalMH = 130 GeV

LHC experiments discover several kinds of Higgs particles

1111

LHC/ILC: CP violationLHC/ILC: CP violation

From decays of Higgs, ILC experiments discover a new source of CP violation (e.g. angular correlations to specific decays)

Solves the mystery of why matter dominates over antimatter

1212

LHC/ILC physics: dark matterLHC/ILC physics: dark matter

CDMS detects WIMPS from the galactic halo

LHC discovers a neutralino

Dark matter?

1313

LHC/ILC Physics: dark matterLHC/ILC Physics: dark matter

ILC sparticle measurements determine relic density

Show that the neutralino really is dark matter

And discover that it is only 2/3 of the total!

1414

ILC Research and DevelopmentILC Research and Development

Two main Branches:

Develop world class SCRF expertise: module fabrication facility + module test facility

“CDR effort”: machine design and site studies

Need to integrate our effort into global design

The Global Design EffortThe Global Design Effort Formal organization begun at LCWS 05 at Stanfordin March 2005; Barish becomes director of the GDE

1616

SCRF ILC EFFORTSCRF ILC EFFORT

The buildings exist at Fermilab: need infrastructure to be built up: rf power, cryogenics, clean rooms……

Personnel: need to strengthen RF expertise in the laboratory

We need to organize the effort coherently with other SCRF projects such as the Proton Driver

Integrate into global effort

1717

ILC RF R&D RequirementsILC RF R&D Requirements

Module AssemblyFacility

Module TestFacility

ILC SC RF OTHER HEP (e.gProton Driver)

Other US SC RF needs

Module Fabrication

Test Facility Operations

∫FY05-09 ∫FY05-09

$12M

$13M

$35M

$31M

= $91M

$4M

$15M

$9M

$13M

= $41M

1818

ILC “CDR” Effort at FermilabILC “CDR” Effort at Fermilab

Likely lead role in two chapters of the CDR: Main Linac and Site Studies

Need to get more intellectual involvement in the overall design of the machine: involvement of key accelerator physicists

Involvement in other areas: if we are to be the site for the ILC, need broad involvement

1919

ILC Research and DevelopmentILC Research and DevelopmentRoadmapRoadmap

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

RF module assembly and testing

CDR effort

Industrialization

Not affordable

Much longer R&D needed

Looks good! Press for early decision

Nothing yet

LHC discovery: GO

This induces other program choices

2020

While we develop the ILC….While we develop the ILC….

We must deliver on our “ships of the line”:The Tevatron Program: CDF and D0LHC and CMSThe neutrino program: Minos and MiniBoone

and maintain scientific vitality with a diverse program that includes:

Particle astrophysicsTheory and computingTechnology development

2121

Tevatron ProgramTevatron ProgramGreatest window into new

phenomena until LHC is on

1500 collaborators, 600 students + postdocs

Critically dependent on Luminosity

Doubling time a major consideration

2222

Sensitivity to low mass Higgs, or Severely constrain mass

Supers

ymmetr

y

Closing in on the the SM HiggsClosing in on the the SM Higgs

LEP

Excl

ude d

Top quark mass (GeV)

W b

oson

mas

s (G

eV)

L (f

b-1 )

Standard

Model

Run IIprojections

2323

And the non-SM HiggsAnd the non-SM Higgs

Explore the majority of allowed parametersfor the lightest supersymmetric Higgs

2424

Other Windows to New PhysicsOther Windows to New Physics

Discovery Potential over most of Bs mixing expected region SUSY Chargino Sensitivity to 270 GeV!

Observation of Bs mixing

2525

Tevatron: key is luminosityTevatron: key is luminosityLuminosity history for each fiscal year

Integrated luminosity for different assumptionsIntegrated Luminosity

Per detector by Oct 09Top Line: all run II upgrades work

Bottom line: none work

( pink/white bands show the doubling times for the top line)

2626

LHC: delivering on the promiseLHC: delivering on the promise

Huge increase in physics reach: 7 times the energy, 100 times the luminosity of the Tevatron

US Construction Collaboration has been successful: Fermilab + LBNL + BNL.

With increase in energy and luminosity come special challenges (e.g., 300 Megajoules of stored energy in the beam!)

2727

LHC: delivering on the promiseLHC: delivering on the promise

US LHC Accelerator R&D Program = LARP: Fermilab + LBNL + BNL +SLAC

Commissioning: bring huge FNAL experience to LHC Technology for upgrades: once again, luminosity will be key

FNAL will have presence at CERN but also develop remote “operations” center at FNAL.

Important step in the development of future “global” machines like the ILC

2828

CMS: Compact Muon DetectorCMS: Compact Muon DetectorComing together: aimed at completion by end of 2007

Muon detectors Magnet cold mass

2929

CMS: Compact Muon DetectorCMS: Compact Muon Detector

US collaboration doubled in the last three years

>300 Collaborators

41 Institutions

3030

US CMS: and Fermilab’s roleUS CMS: and Fermilab’s role

Only major US lab associated with CMS: a central support role for the US community

This was the case during construction

Attention now to huge data and physics discovery challenge: the LHC Physics Center (LPC)

3131

Summary for LHC and CMSSummary for LHC and CMS

Fermilab will be a vital partner to CERN in making the LHC and CMS a success

Our ambition is to contribute with: Presence at CERN as necessary Remote control/monitoring/data centers at Fermilab

for both accelerator and detector(s) Technical support and critical mass: such that being

at FNAL will be nearly “as good” as being at CERN for all our University partners!

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Present Neutrino ProgramPresent Neutrino Program

Minos Far detector

Minos near detector

MINOS program is just starting:

- 2 GeV neutrinos

- 5.4 Kiloton far detector and 1.0 Kiloton near detector

-Most precise measurements in the atmospheric region

-disappearance

3333

Present Neutrino ProgramPresent Neutrino ProgramMiniBooNE

- 1 GeV neutrinos (Booster)

- 800 ton oil cerenkov

- Operating since 2003

- e appearance

- first results this fall: all hell will break loose if positive signal

3434

New Initiatives: neutrinosNew Initiatives: neutrinos

Understanding the Neutrino matrix:

What is sin22

What is the Mass Hierarchy What is the CP violation parameter

Fermilab is in the best position to make vital contributions to answer these questions

3535

New Initiatives: neutrinos New Initiatives: neutrinos

Most powerful beam in the world at 200 KW

Upgrades (by 2008) would give 440 KW

When we stop the Tevatron, we’ll have 600+ KW, the same as JPARC after 2010+

Further improvements: aimed at 2 MW proton

beam power

3636

Neutrino Program: acceleratorsNeutrino Program: accelerators

Develop Proton Driver R&D helps develop base of SC RF technology Extremely flexible operations = much simplified

complex Accelerator energy is 2% of ILC

Also develop alternatives No Tevatron means we have recycler, accumulator

and debuncher to play with We have VERY EARLY creative ideas on how to

deliver 1-2 MW at 120 GeV.

3737

Neutrino Initiative – Proton DriverNeutrino Initiative – Proton Driver

ILC LINAC

< 1 ILC LINAC

ILC/TESLA

3838

Neutrino Initiative: NOvANeutrino Initiative: NOvA

In addition to Beam power: detector mass and detector sensitivity: NOvA is 30 ktons, totally active

NOvA is the only experiment sensitive to matter effects (hence the mass hierarchy). We want to start a long term R&D program towards

massive totally active liquid Argon detectors for extensions of NOvA.

Improvement is proportional to (Beam power) x (detector mass) x (detector sensitivity)

3939

Nova Reach: Nova Reach: 1313

2.5 yr each and run

2.5 yr each and run

5 year onlyrun

4040

Nova Reach: Mass HierarchyNova Reach: Mass Hierarchy

+

+

+++

NOA

4141

Nova Reach: CPNova Reach: CPWith Proton DriverWith Proton Driver

4242

Neutrino Program (delayed ILC)Neutrino Program (delayed ILC)

2005 2010 2015

dete

ctor

sac

cele

rato

rs

Minos run

MiniBoone run

NOvA R&D and Construction NOvA run

Proton Driver Construction(if and only if ILC delayed)

Proton Driver R&D

NOvA II runNOvA II R&D and construction

Proton plan first stage0.2 MW moving to 0.4 MW

Proton plan 2nd stage(If no proton driver)

1-2 MW at 120 GeV

Greater than 2 MW any energy

ILC CDR

DELAYED ILC?

4343

Interlinked RoadmapInterlinked Roadmap

The immediate decisions are: NOvA, and support of ILC R&D and proton driver R&D

Options get looked two years down the line after ILC CDR: decision to go for early ILC decision precludes proton driver

LHC input will determine branch points at the end of the decade

4444

Interlinked RoadmapInterlinked Roadmap Establishes the main trunk and branches for the

laboratory.

It supports a vital role for the US community in the global program

Requires “strong focusing” now, which narrows the program….

But it establishes the strong base on which breadth and “texture” can flourish as we move forward.

4545

Maintaining some breadthMaintaining some breadth

Astrophysics and small experiments: on going projects: SDSS; CDMS, Pierre Auger New small projects: DES, Minerva R&D for future major projects: direct detection of dark

matter; evolution of the expansion of the universe JDEM/SNAP

R&D (at relatively small scale) New detectors: e.g. calorimetry for ILC detector,

Massive Liquid Argon TPCs Novel accelerator ideas: muon cooling

4646

Early ILC Decision – No Proton DriverEarly ILC Decision – No Proton DriverProposed ScenarioProposed Scenario

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09

POWER

FLARE

MINERvA

NOvA

DES

LINEAR COLLIDER DETECTOR

LINEAR COLLIDER TEST BEAM

PREP TO HOST ILC @ FNAL

ILC INDUSTRIALIZATION

RF INFRASTRUCTURE

PROTON DRIVER

LINEAR COLLIDER

ASSUMPTIONS:1) Direct costs only. Does not include physicist effort2) ILC Industrialization includes industrialization of SRF and civil construction. Does not include industrialization of RF components at SLAC3) Proton Driver R&D is continued at a low level until a decision is made to build ILC4) LC Test Beam is for new beamline and some dollars for detector installation only. Costs to operate are included elsewhere in lab budget5) Other contributions to NOvA or MINERvA are not included6) Other contributions to DES are included7) Power rate increases by 22% in January, 2007, Weeks of operation FY05 - FY09: 42, 35, 43, 42, 39

4747

Incremental NeedIncremental Need

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09

DELAYED ILC DECISION -WITH PROTON DRIVER

EARLY ILC DECISION - NOPROTON DRIVER

EARLY ILC DECISION -WITH PROTON DRIVER

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09DELAYED ILC DECISION - WITH PROTON DRIVER 970 31,520 52,500 75,650 107,530

EARLY ILC DECISION - NO PROTON DRIVER 970 31,520 62,350 94,800 117,130

EARLY ILC DECISION - WITH PROTON DRIVER 970 31,520 65,600 98,950 164,630

4848

Problems to be solvedProblems to be solved Tremendous crunch on the accelerator expertise:

Tevatron, LARP, PD, ILC. Difficult transition D0/CDF to CMS/ATLAS: how to run

the Tevatron program properly. How to get NOvA moving quickly How to preserve some breadth of the program in an era

that forces “strong focusing”. How to generate increasing support for the field in the

era of nanosciences, hydrogen economy, the health sciences’ promise of “eternal life”, the needs of homeland security, global warming and $100B hurricanes.

Contract competition.