Developing Climate Smart Crops for a 2030 world

Climate smart crops for 2030

2 • 3/21/11

The Challenge

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The concentration of GHGs is rising

Long-term implications

for the climate and for crop suitability

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Historical impacts on food security

% Yield impact for wheat

Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008.

Lobell et al (2011)

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Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050

Crop suitability is changing

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In order to meet global

demands, we will need

60-70% more food

by 2050.

Food security is at risk

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Message 1:In the coming decades, climate

change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security,

and rural livelihoods.

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Average price in voluntary carbon markets ($/tCO2e)

Left: Example of a silvo-pastoral system

2006 2007 2008

Ecosystem valuation

Spot the livestock!

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CO2 Fertilisation

• Enhanced CO2 fertilisation, with great potential for some crops

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Message 2:With new challenges also come

new opportunities.

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Program Design

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CCAFS: the partnership

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1. Identify and develop pro-poor

adaptation and mitigation

practices, technologies and

policies for agriculture and

food systems.

2.Support the inclusion of

agricultural issues in climate

change policies, and of

climate issues in agricultural

policies, at all levels.

CCAFS objectives

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The CCAFS FrameworkAdapting Agriculture to

Climate Variability and Change

Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for:

1.Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change2.Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk3.Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation

Improved Environmental

HealthImproved

Rural Livelihoods

Improved Food

Security

Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural

resource management, and food systems

Trade-offs and Synergies

4. Integration for Decision Making

•Linking Knowledge with Action•Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning•Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis

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Progressive Adaptation

THE VISION

To adapt farming systems, we need to:

• Close the production gap by effectively using current technologies, practices and policies

• Increase the bar: develop new ways to increase food production potential

• Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level

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Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies

Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climatesObjective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity

Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

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Why do we need breeding?• For starters, we have novel

climates

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Milestone 1.2.1.1 Research and policy organizations actively engaged in research design; one regional breeding strategy workshop involving regional decision-making and priority setting bodies delivered in each of 3 initial target regions (2011)

Milestone 1.2.1.2 Crop breeding institutions coordinated in development of climate-proofed crops for a 2030-2050 world; Document written jointly by CCAFS and crop breeding institutions outlining coordinated plans for breeding. (2012)

Milestone 1.2.1.3 Range of crop modeling approaches developed and evaluated for biotic and abiotic constraints for the period 2020 to 2050; findings presented in summary report and at key stakeholders meetings ; including modelling approaches to evaluate the impacts of climate change and the effects of adaptation technologies such as supplemental irrigation and water harvesting on water availability for crops and their productivity under decadal futures from 2020 to 2050 (2013).

Milestone 1.2.1.4 Detailed crop-by-crop strategies and plans of action for crop improvement developed, incorporating portfolio of national, regional and global priorities; findings presented in summary report (2015)

Milestone 1.2.1.5 Set of “virtual crops” designed and assessed for their efficacy in addressing the likely future conditions in terms of the economic, social and cultural benefits expected; findings presented in summary report and journal article. Engagement of ARI modeling groups (e.g. Leeds University), NARES scientists (2014)

Milestone 1.2.1.6 Set of breeding strategies identified and socialized with funding bodies, national and international organizations, universities and other actors; findings presented in summary report and policy briefs (including percentage of total food crop production (in recent history) accounted for by set of breeding strategies) (2015)

Development of strategies

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Milestone 1.2.2.1 High-level meetings held with key stakeholders resulting in mainstreaming of new breeding strategies in workplans and existing breeding programs. (2015)

Milestone 1.2.2.2 Global, regional and national policy briefs produced for investments in climate-proofed crop breeding initiatives (2015)

Milestone 1.2.2.3 (2015) One policy briefing meeting per region based on the briefs in 1.2.2.2.

Milestone 1.2.3.1 Policy recommendations provided to national agencies, policy makers and key actors in the agricultural sector on how to target strategies to enable equitable access by different social groups (e.g. pastoralists, fishers, urban farmers) and by women and men. (2015)

Dissemination of strategies

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Initial Analysis of Vulnerability

Andy Jarvis

“Developing Climate-Smart Crops for a 2030 World” Workshop

ILRI, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

6-8 December 2011

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Climate change is not new…but is accelerating

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Global Climate Models (GCMs)

• 21 global climate models in the world, based on atmospheric sciences, chemistry, biology, and a touch of astrology

• Run from the past to present to calibrate, then into the future

• Run using different emissions scenarios

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Changes in Average and Variability around the mean

+

Clim

ate

Timescale

Short (change in baseline and variability) Long

Baseline

_

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Temperatures rise….

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Changes in rainfall…

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Areas where maximum temperature during the primary growing season is currently < 30°C but will flip to > 30°C by 2050

Areas where rainfall per day decreases by 10 % or more between 2000 and 2050.

30 • 3/21/11

Projected Climate: Andes

31 • 3/21/11 DIRECT EFFECTS:elevated levels of Carbon dioxide on potato

crops

Leaf Processes Increased CO2

Photosynthetic rate •When exposed for a short period -substantial increment•Down regulation when grown continuously in elevated CO2

Stomatal conductance •Decreases at elevated CO2

•Expected to increase WUE

Leaf Protein, Chlorophyll content

•Contradictory responses, probably associated to cultivar differences

Starch / CHO content •Increases with long-term exposure to elevated CO2

32 • 3/21/11

Effect of elevated levels of Carbon dioxide on potato crops

Process Increased CO2

Changes in plant growth and development

•Stimulates both above- and below-ground biomass (early growing season)•Period of active plant growth ends prematurely•Senescence begins earlier•Limited growth rates towards the end of growing season

Effects on crop yield •Tuber yield stimulated and magnitude varies with cultivar and growing conditions•Increase number of tubers

Effects on tuber quality •Increased tuber DM & starch content•Reduced tuber N and glycoalkaloid content

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Effect of elevated Temperature on potato crops

•Elevated temperatures seems to reduce tuber initiation

•Temperature above the desired ones reduce the photosynthetic efficiency, thus reducing potato growth

•High temperature may also reduce the ability of the plant to translocate photosynthates to the tuber

•Elevated temperature increases DM partitioning to stems but reduces root, stolon, tuber and total DM and total tuber number

•Offset the CO2 fertilization effect

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Baseline w/o crop protection 75 % of potato production today would be lost to pests

Major factors likely to influence plant disease severity and spread

•increased CO2, •heavy and unseasonal rains, •increased humidity, droughts and hurricanes, •warmer winter temperatures

INDIRECT EFFECT: potato pests and diseases

35 • 3/21/11Changes in the climate are expected to produce

•alterations in the geographical distribution of species,

•increase overwintering,

•changes in population growth rates,

•increase the number of generations per season,

•extension of the development season,

•changes in crop-pest synchrony,

•increase risk of invasion by migration pests,

•may cause the appearance of new thermophilic species,

•changes in the physiology of pathogens/insects and host plants,

•changes in host plants resistance to infection/infestation,

•critical temperature/infection threshold,

•modification of pathogen aggressiveness and/or host susceptibility

36 • 3/21/11

Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez

37 • 3/21/11 Potato Current Suitability

Kiling temperature (°C) -0.80

Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 3.75

Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 12.40

Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 17.80

Maximum absolute temperature (°C) 24.00

Growing season (days) 120

Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 150.00

Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 251.25

Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 326.50

Maximum absolute rainfall (mm) 785.50

38 • 3/21/11 Potato Current Suitability and Presence

39 • 3/21/11

Potato Current Climatic Constraints

40 • 3/21/11 Potato Future Suitability and Change

2030s SRES-A1B

2030s SRES-A1B

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Rop-Cumulative Top-Cumulative

Potato Breeding Priorities

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Potato Impacts by Countries

Change in Suitable Area Overall Suitability Change PIA/NIA ratio

AND Andean Region EAS East Asia NEU North Europe WAF West AfricaBRA Brazil EAF East Africa SAF South Africa WEU West EuropeCAC Cen. America and Caribean EEU East Europe SAH Sahel OCE OceaniaCAF Central Africa WAS West Asia SAS South Asia SAM South Latin AmericaCAS Central Asia NAF North Africa SEA Southeast AsiaCEU Central Europe NAM North America SEU South Europe

43 • 3/21/11

Late Blight (LB)

Warmer temperatures with some humidity in higher grounds will increase the presence of potato late blight.

High incidence of LB in the future (2050) above 3000 masl (highlighted in the map) where it is virtually absent today

44 • 3/21/11Potato tuber moth (PTM)

PTM is actually present in interandean valleys and the coastal areas of the Andes

PTM is expected to climb as well due to climate change

45 • 3/21/11The critical role of crop wild relatives in ensuring long-term food security and

their need for conservation

© Neil Palmer (CIAT)

46 • 3/21/11Why conserve CWR diversity?

•Use: 39% pest resistance; 17% abiotic stress; 13% yield increase

•Citations: 2% <1970; 13% 1970s; 15% 1980s; 32% 1990s; 38% >1999

Use!!

234 papers cited

Maxted and Kell, 2009

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Threats

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Impact of climate change on CWR

• Assessment of shifts in distribution range under climate change

• Wild potatoes• Wild African Vigna• Wild peanuts

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50 • 3/21/11

Summary Impacts• 16-22% (depending on migration

scenario) of these species predicted to go extinct

• Most species losing over 50% of their range size

• Wild peanuts were the most affected group, with 24 to 31 of 51 species projected to go extinct

• For wild potato, 7 to 13 of 108 species were predicted to go extinct

• Vigna was the least affected of the three groups, losing 0 to 2 of the 48 species in the genus

51 • 3/21/11

Florunner, with no root-knot nematode resistance

COAN, with population density of root-knot nematodes >90% less than in Florunner

Wild relative species

A. batizocoi - 12 germplasm accessions

A. cardenasii - 17 germplasm accessions

A. diogoi - 5 germplasm accessions

52 • 3/21/11

SpeciesChange in area

of distribution (%)Predicted state

in 2055

batizocoi -100 Extinctcardenasii -100 Extinctcorrentina -100 Extinctdecora -100 Extinctdiogoi -100 Extinctduranensis -91 Threatenedglandulifera -17 Stablehelodes -100 Extincthoehnii -100 Extinctkempff-mercadoi -69 Near-Threatenedkuhlmannii -100 Extinctmagna -100 Extinctmicrosperma -100 Extinctpalustris -100 Extinctpraecox -100 Extinctstenosperma -86 Threatenedvillosa -51 Near-Threatened

Impact of Climate Change – Wild Peanuts

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CWR supporting adaptation but also threatened by climate change

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Adapting Agriculture to Climate ChangeCollecting, Protecting and Preparing Crop Wild Relatives

project

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How well conserved are crop wild relatives?

Gap Analysis

© Neil Palmer (CIAT)

56 • 3/21/11

Why Gap Analysis?

• Tool to assess crop and crop wild relative genetic and geographical diversity

• Allows detecting incomplete species collections as well as defining which species should be collected and where these collections should be focused

• Assesses the current extent at which the ex situ conservation system is correctly holding the genetic diversity of a particular genepool

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An example in Phaseolus

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Herbarium versus germplasm: Geographic

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Herbarium versus germplasm: Taxon

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Conserved ex situ richness versus potential

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Priorities: Geographic and taxonomic

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“Validation”: The man versus the machine

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Model priorities versus expert priorities

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Taxon-level and genepool level priorities

65 • 3/21/11Wild Vigna collecting priorities

• Spatial analysis on current conserved materials

• *Gaps* in current collections

• Definition and prioritisation of collecting areas

• 8 100x100km cells to complete collections of 23 wild Vigna priority species

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67 • 3/21/11

68 • 3/21/11 Sweetpotato Current Suitability

Kiling temperature (°C) -0.4

Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 2.4

Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 10.2

Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 23.8

Maximum absolute temperature (°C) 30.0

Growing season (days) 120

Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 100

Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 300

Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 1500

Maximum absoluterainfall (mm) 2760

69 • 3/21/11 Sweetpotato Current Suitability and Presence

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Sweetpotato Current Climatic Constraints

71 • 3/21/11 Sweetpotato Future Suitability and Change

2030s SRES-A1B

2030s SRES-A1B

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Rop-Cumulative Top-Cumulative

Sweetpotato Breeding Priorities

73 • 3/21/11

Sweetpotato Impacts by Countries

AND Andean Region EAS East Asia NEU North Europe WAF West AfricaBRA Brazil EAF East Africa SAF South Africa WEU West Europe

CAC Cen. America and Caribean EEU East Europe SAH Sahel OCE OceaniaCAF Central Africa WAS West Asia SAS South Asia SAM South Latin AmericaCAS Central Asia NAF North Africa SEA Southeast AsiaCEU Central Europe NAM North America SEU South Europe