Climate Smart Agriculture Debate, Copenhagen, June 2012

A vision for climate smart

agriculture

Dr Sonja Vermeulen

Head of Research, CCAFS

The global

“trilemma”

of the

21st century…

100% (+/- 11%) more food by 2050

Tilman et al 2011

PNAS

with current

trajectories

of diets &

populations

Climate change reducing crop

yields already

Lobell et al 2011 Science

Vermeulen et al. 2012 Annual Review of Environment and Resources (in press)

Food systems

contributes 19-29% GHGs

Adaptation Ecological

footprint

Food

security

1. Is it a good idea to make agriculture

climate-smart, and can it be done?

2. Is “climate-smart agriculture” enough?

3. Can we achieve a shared vision for

climate-smart agriculture?

A vision for climate-smart

agriculture

Yes!

Not on its own

Yes!

Food

Security

Adaptation Ecological

footprint

Climate-Smart Agriculture

0

5

10

15

20

25

US Malawi

GHG CO2-eq tonne per capita

CSA will differ significantly…

Direct emissions

Indirect emissions

Impact of

climate change

on child

malnutrition

Costs of

adaptation

Food security options

1. Yes, food security depends critically on food production and productivity

2. But also depends critically on how production translates into farmers’ incomes

3. Food security is more too (landless and urban consumers’ incomes, rural-urban links, trade, price control policies etc etc…)

4. Not just agriculture can change, but whole cultures of food too (diets, women in formal employment, ethical concerns etc etc…)

Food security comes via

better agriculture, however…

Rights & entitlements

Safety nets

Political voice

Access to services

Economic opportunities

For food insecure people, need actions on

Food

availability

Adaptation options

Adaptive capacity

Technology

Knowledge &

skills Governance

&

institutions

Income & assets

Access

to

information

Infrastructure

Social capital

Key adaptation strategies Incremental adaptation to progressive

climate change

• Closing yield gaps (i.e. sustainable intensification)

• Raising the bar – technologies & policies for 2030s

Climate risk management

• Technologies (e.g. flood control)

• Institutions (e.g. index-based insurance)

• Climate information systems (e.g. seasonal forecasts)

Transformative adaptation

• Changing production systems

• Changing livelihood portfolios

• Climate information to farmers for decision

making

• National Met Service, WMO, ACMAD

• Forecasts provided for three‐days, ten‐days,

and seasonal (inc. crop health...)

• Major increases in yields for participating

farmers

• Lessons learning and scaling up across

Sahel?

Better risk management: e.g. Mali

farmer climate advisories

• The climate analogue

tool identifies the

range of places whose

current climates

correspond to the

future of a chosen

locality

• Choice of sites for

cross-site farmer visits

and participatory crop

and livestock trials

Farms of

the future

Relocation of growing areas &

processing facilities

Agricultural diversification, or shifts

Livelihood diversification, or shifts

Migration

To transformational adaptation?

Mitigation options

Soil & land management

key to agricultural mitigation

Smith et al. 2007 IPCC

Technical strategies 1. “Sustainable intensification” in

low productivity systems

2. Sustainable land management

(SLM) practices

3. Alternate wetting and drying

systems in irrigated rice

4. Improved nitrogen use

efficiency

5. Increased intensity of ruminant

production in Africa to reduce

GHG++ per unit of product

Tackling deforestation Indirect emissions

Food

Security

Adaptation Ecological

footprint

“Climate smart means landscape

and policy smart”

Institutional strategies

1. Improved forest governance &

land zoning

2. Land tenure security and

safeguarding local rights

3. Low carbon development

pathways for agriculture

4. “Shared but differentiated

responsibilities” in metrics &

access to finance

5. Services for smallholders

Are carbon markets a good

deal for farmers?

Claims: US$4.8 billion global market (assuming $18/tonne)

US$1.5 billion in Sub-Saharan Africa

(almost twice the overseas development assistance for

agriculture in the region)

But:

-Weak market: $1.03/t

-Social justice issues:

distract from agricultural

development & adaptation needs

Analysis of Wollenberg 2011

Bringing it all together

A multitude of trade-offs……..

• Across sub-sectors (e.g. residues to soils or

livestock?)

• Across spatial scales (e.g. more productive

agriculture can result in forest clearance)

• Different kinds of households (e.g. some risk

insurance exclude female-headed households)

• Short-term vs. long term benefits (e.g.

livestock risk insurance can promote land

degradation)

CSA, in summary:

• Takes into account: food security, adaptation and

ecological footprint

• Foremost about development itself and address

smallholder concerns

• Adds new actions on climate to sustainable devpt

• Crucial to deal with trade-offs

• Context matters: CSA differs widely

But is CSA enough?

(to solve the “trilemma”)

No! Also need actions on (a) fair access to food (b) reducing waste & over-consumption

Commission on Sust Ag & Climate Change 2012

www.ccaf.cgiar.org/commission

Towards a shared vision for

climate smart agriculture?

CSA is fully compatible with organic

agriculture, conservation agriculture

and agro-ecological approaches

“Climate-smart agriculture”

is up for grabs:

claim this space!

For those who don’t like it, is the problem

climate-smart agriculture, or is it:

• Carbon markets?

• Technical limits to mitigation? (e.g. the real

potential to sequester soil carbon)

• Ignoring non-C benefits such as biodiversity?

• Just the wording or the politics?

Rockström et al 2009; Bennett et al (in prep.)

Global

freshwater

use Change in land

use

Biodiversity

loss

Phosphorous

cycle

Nitrogen

cycle

Ocean

acidification

Climate

change

Safe

operating

space

Current

status

Role of

Agriculture

1. Continue with global

processes • Ensure that agriculture and

food security are central to UNFCCC processes & agreements

• Put agriculture at the heart of green growth and Rio+20

• Keep pressure on G20 to increase focus on food security and climate smart agriculture

Mexico 2012

Oxfam 2012

Thank you

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