A System Dynamics A System Dynamics Approach to Global WarmingApproach to Global Warming

(Noah) Junho Kang(Noah) Junho Kang

Purpose/GoalsPurpose/Goals

• Create a convincing model of global warming scenario

• Complicated enough to explain the whole scenario to a reasonable extent, but simple enough to be understood easily and applied

Scope of the ProjectScope of the Project

• Estimate, to a certain degree, the effects that increasing amount of Carbon Dioxide gas will have on the Earth's atmosphere over a fixed period of time. The "effects" currently include, but is not limited to, global temperatures, frequency of hurricanes, methane release, and other consequences that will arise from increasing global temperature.

Expected ResultsExpected Results

• Direct Cause-and-effect relationship between Earth’s Global Temperature and Carbon Dioxide Concentration

• Demonstrate the negative impacts of Global Warming

• Accelerating Cycle of Global Warming

BackgroundBackground

• Daisyworld

• Parallel Computing-based Climate Simulations

• System Dynamics Modeling and Agent-based Modeling

TheoryTheory

• System Dynamics Modeling

• Netlogo

• STELLA

• Complex System Modeling

Current Progress on ModelCurrent Progress on Model

• Five Stocks: Land, Soil, Atmosphere, Ocean and Fuel

• Eight Flows: External Addition, Photosynthesis, Respirations

• Variables

System Dynamics Model System Dynamics Model (Carbon Cycle)(Carbon Cycle)

Ocean Atmosphere Fossil Fuel

Soil Land BiotaOut/In

(Negligible)

System Dynamics Model System Dynamics Model (Secondary)(Secondary)

Global Temperature

Ice Hurricanes

AlbedoOcean

TemperatureMethane in Atmosphere

Variables UsedVariables Used

• Fossile Fuel: Amount of Carbon inside Fossile Fuel

• Atmosphere: Amount of Carbon (Mostly Carbon Dioxide and Methane) inside Atmosphere, directly affects Global Temperature

• Land Biota: Amount of Carbon present in Land organisms, like plants. Help control the amount of carbon by Photosynthesis/Respiration

Variables Used - ContinuedVariables Used - Continued

• Soil: Amount of Carbon present in Soil, controls the amount of Carbon Dioxide in Atmosphere by respiration and slowly recovers the amount of Fossil Fuel.

• Ocean: Amount of Carbon present in Ocean, mostly in the form of Carbon Dioxide and Methane dissolved in water. Potentially very important, helps control amount of carbon by dissolving it.

Equations UsedEquations Used

• External Addition (Fossil Fuel → Atmosphere, mostly)

• Photosynthesis (Land → Atmosphere)((Pmax * (pCO2_eff / (pCO2_eff + Khs))) * (1 + (Tsens_p * global-temp)))

• Plant Respiration (Atmosphere → Land)– (Photosynthesis * .5) / dt

Equations Used - ContinuedEquations Used - Continued

• Litter Fall (Land → Soil)– (50 * (Land / 610))

• Soil Respiration (Soil → Atmosphere)– ((49.4 / INIT_Soil) * Soil * (1 +

(Tsens_sr * global-temp)))• Runoff (Soil → )– (0.6 * (Soil / INIT_soil))

Progress on Code - 1QTProgress on Code - 1QT

• Output system consisting of an Output file and a graph

• Automatic external addition correction checks 10,000 ticks during run

Progress on Code - 2QTProgress on Code - 2QT

• External Addition Cycle

• Netlogo Chart Output

ResultsResults

• Current results show a relationship between global temperature and Carbon Dioxide concentration in Atmosphere.

• As Carbon Dioxide concentration in Atmosphere increases, Earth’s self-balancing system starts working, and attempts to balance the temperature.

• Climate change is accelerated by melting of ice and release of Methane gas.

Results – Before Fuel AdditionResults – Before Fuel Addition

Results – After Fuel AdditionResults – After Fuel Addition