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A “Survey” of Tornadoes and their Environments in the WFO Sterling, VA Forecast Area Matthew R....
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Transcript of A “Survey” of Tornadoes and their Environments in the WFO Sterling, VA Forecast Area Matthew R....
![Page 1: A “Survey” of Tornadoes and their Environments in the WFO Sterling, VA Forecast Area Matthew R. Kramar Senior Forecaster, WFO LWX Kyle M. Olmstead Student.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062803/56649f3a5503460f94c58622/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
A “Survey” of Tornadoes A “Survey” of Tornadoes and their Environments and their Environments
in the in the
WFO Sterling, VA WFO Sterling, VA Forecast AreaForecast Area
Matthew R. KramarMatthew R. KramarSenior Forecaster, WFO LWXSenior Forecaster, WFO LWX
Kyle M. OlmsteadKyle M. OlmsteadStudent Volunteer, WFO LWXStudent Volunteer, WFO LWX
![Page 2: A “Survey” of Tornadoes and their Environments in the WFO Sterling, VA Forecast Area Matthew R. Kramar Senior Forecaster, WFO LWX Kyle M. Olmstead Student.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062803/56649f3a5503460f94c58622/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Motivation
• Provide guidance to forecasters on favorable synoptic patterns for tornadoes in the WFO LWX forecast area
• Update local graphics to reflect recent geographical and temporal distribution of tornadoes by tornadic storm type
![Page 3: A “Survey” of Tornadoes and their Environments in the WFO Sterling, VA Forecast Area Matthew R. Kramar Senior Forecaster, WFO LWX Kyle M. Olmstead Student.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062803/56649f3a5503460f94c58622/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Methodology
• Compiled dataset of tornado events from 1992-2009 (WSR-88D era at WFO LWX)
• Stratified reports by storm mode based on inspection of Level II data
![Page 4: A “Survey” of Tornadoes and their Environments in the WFO Sterling, VA Forecast Area Matthew R. Kramar Senior Forecaster, WFO LWX Kyle M. Olmstead Student.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062803/56649f3a5503460f94c58622/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Methodology
• Stratification of tornadoes by storm mode:– Mesocyclonic– Linear/Quasi-Linear Convective System
• Sub-stratified into linear and QLCS based on QLCS definition by Coniglio et al. (2007)
– Other• Disorganized, non-mesocyclonic cells,
waterspout/landspout type tornado – Tropical/Tropical remnant system– No Level II data available
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Methodology
• Stratification of tornadoes by storm mode:– Considered only mesocyclonic and linear/QLCS
tornadoes• Unusual juxtaposition of shear/instability in remnant
tropical environments• Potentially important role of sub-synoptic conditions in
landspout/waterspout tornado development
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Distribution by Month (1992-2009)Number of Days with Tornado Reports by Month
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan
uar
y
Feb
ruar
y
Mar
ch
Ap
ril
May
Jun
e
July
Au
gu
st
Sep
tem
ber
Oct
ob
er
No
vem
ber
Dec
emb
er
Month
Nu
mb
er o
f D
ays
All Types
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Distribution by Month (1992-2009)
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Number of Days of Tornado Occurrence (1992-2009)
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Number of Days of Mesocyclonic Tornado Occurrence
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Number of Days of Linear/QLCS Tornado Occurrence
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Methodology
• Constructed synoptic composites based upon tornadic storm mode– NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis
• 2.5° x 2.5° lat/lon grid• 6-hourly data• Lose mesoscale details• Seasonal impact on thermodynamic aspects?
– Chose 6-hour synoptic time closest to and preceding tornado event
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Compositing• Variables
– Geopotential Height– Zonal Wind– Meridional Wind– Vector Wind– Sea Level Pressure– Relative Humidity– Temperature
• Height Levels (mb)– 250, 500, 700, 850, 925, Surface
– N.B. Be careful of the color scales (no user control over this)
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Mesocyclonic 250mb
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Mesocyclonic 500mb
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Mesocyclonic 700mb
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Mesocyclonic 700mb
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Mesocyclonic 700mb
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Mesocyclonic 850mb
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Mesocyclonic 850mb
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Mesocyclonic 850mb
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Mesocyclonic 925mb
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Mesocyclonic 925mb
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Mesocyclonic 925mb
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Mesocyclonic Surface
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QLCS 250mb
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QLCS 500mb
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QLCS 700mb
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QLCS 700mb
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QLCS 700mb
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QLCS 850mb
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QLCS 850mb
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QLCS 850mb
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QLCS 925mb
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QLCS 925mb
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QLCS 925mb
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QLCS Surface
![Page 37: A “Survey” of Tornadoes and their Environments in the WFO Sterling, VA Forecast Area Matthew R. Kramar Senior Forecaster, WFO LWX Kyle M. Olmstead Student.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062803/56649f3a5503460f94c58622/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
MesocyclonicMesocyclonic QLCSQLCS
COMPARISONS
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`
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~5.55 C/km~5.74 C/km
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Upper Level Features
• Mesocyclonic– Relatively lower-
amplitude, neutral to positively tilted shortwave trough over Upper Midwest
• QLCS– Relatively higher-
amplitude, negatively tilted shortwave trough over western Great Lakes region
![Page 51: A “Survey” of Tornadoes and their Environments in the WFO Sterling, VA Forecast Area Matthew R. Kramar Senior Forecaster, WFO LWX Kyle M. Olmstead Student.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062803/56649f3a5503460f94c58622/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Surface Features
• Mesocyclonic
– Surface low pressure centered over western PA
– Moist, warm sector over entire forecast area
• QLCS
– Surface low pressure centered over northern Michigan
– Negatively tilted surface trough encroaching on forecast area
– Moist airmass along and east of Blue Ridge
![Page 52: A “Survey” of Tornadoes and their Environments in the WFO Sterling, VA Forecast Area Matthew R. Kramar Senior Forecaster, WFO LWX Kyle M. Olmstead Student.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062803/56649f3a5503460f94c58622/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Wind Field Features
• Mesocyclonic
– Right entrance region of upper jet
– Zonal 850mb speed maximum across Carolinas (relative southward position)
– Balanced dipole in meridional component of 700mb, 850mb, 925mb winds
– Relatively weaker wind speeds
• QLCS
– Left exit region of upper jet
– Zonal 850mb speed maximum across central Virginia (relative northward position)
– Positive bias to structure of 700mb, 850mb, 925mb meridional wind field
– Relatively stronger wind speeds
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Thermodynamic Features
• Mesocyclonic
– Steeper lapse rates
– Slightly lower relative humidity (owing to heating of warm sector?)
– Relatively warmer low-level temperatures owing to seasonal aspect of event distribution?
• QLCS
– Weaker lapse rates
– Slightly higher relative humidity (owing to cloud cover in strongly forced environment?)
– Relatively cooler low-level temperatures owing to seasonal aspect of event distribution?
![Page 54: A “Survey” of Tornadoes and their Environments in the WFO Sterling, VA Forecast Area Matthew R. Kramar Senior Forecaster, WFO LWX Kyle M. Olmstead Student.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062803/56649f3a5503460f94c58622/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Questions/References
QUESTIONS and COMMENTS?
email: [email protected]
• Coniglio, Michael C., Harold E. Brooks, Steven J. Weiss, Stephen F. Corfidi, 2007: Forecasting the Maintenance of Quasi-Linear Mesoscale Convective Systems. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 556-570.
• Kalnay, E. and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 40-year Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
• National Climatic Data Center, 2010: NCDC NEXRAD Data Inventory. [Database Online]
• National Climatic Data Center, 2010: NCDC Storm Event Archive. [Database Online]