A STUDY ON THE NATURE OF CLIMATE CHANGE INDUCED …€¦ · Urban areas of Bangladesh are...

Proceedings on International Conference on Disaster Risk Management,

Dhaka, Bangladesh, January 12-14, 2019

Page | 355

A STUDY ON THE NATURE OF CLIMATE CHANGE INDUCED HAZARDS IN

THE URBAN AREAS OF BANGLADESH.

Nawshin Tabassum1, Dr. Ishrat Islam2

ABSTRACT

Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change which is facing consequent diversified

natural hazards because of its location, unique physiographic feature and different socio-economic factors.

The urban areas of Bangladesh have been facing the impact of climate change on infrastructure system, water

supply system, energy system, wastewater management system, transportation system, housing sector and

human health sector etc. The aim of this paper is to identify the most vulnerable urban areas in Bangladesh

due to climate change along with the nature of climate change induced hazards. Most of the vulnerable urban

areas due to the impacts of climate change are situated on the south side of Bangladesh. Twelve A class

Pourashavas, four B class Pourashavas, three C class Pourashavas and two city corporations are situated in

the most vulnerable zone due to climate change. These urban areas face multiple climate change induced

hazards. Magura Pourashava, Narail Pourashava and Satkhira Pourashava are facing severe climate induced

flood, drought and temperature rise while Paikgacha Pourashava faces climate change induced drought, saline

intrusion and temperature rise. This research would help policy makers, planners and other stakeholders to

identify the most vulnerable urban areas facing climate change and thereby take necessary steps to improve

the condition.

Keywords: Climate change, Urban areas, Hazards, Vulnerable.

Introduction

Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change which is facing climate change induced

hazards such as rising sea levels and storm surges, heat stress, extreme precipitation, inland and coastal

flooding, landslides, salinity intrusion, drought, increased aridity, water scarcity and air pollution (Das and

Hossain, 2017; Ayers et al., 2014; Kabir, 2014; Ahmed 2012; Das, 2010; Rahman and Alam, 2003; Huq,

2001; Revi et al., 2014, Rashid et al., 2009). These impacts are increasing with widespread negative impacts

on people, their health, livelihoods and assets and also on local and national economies and ecosystems (Revi

et al., 2014). According to Ministry of Environment and Forests (2012), Bangladesh loses 1.5% of its Gross

Domestic Product (GDP) due to increased frequency and intensity of these climate change induced hazards.

Sustainable Development Goal 13, Seventh five-year plan (FY 2016- FY 2020), National Environmental

Policy (2013), Bangladesh Delta Plan (2100), Perspective Plan of Bangladesh (2010-2021) etc. also aim at

taking actions to combat climate change and its impacts (United Nations, 2015; Bangladesh Planning

Commission, 2012; Bangladesh Planning Commission, 2015; Bangladesh Planning Commission, 2018;

Ministry of Environment and Forests, 2013)

Urban areas of Bangladesh are categorized as city corporations, A, B, and C class Pourashavas based on the

minimum of annual revenues collected over last three years (Local Government Engineering Department,

2017). There are twelve City Corporations and 318 Pourashavas in Bangladesh which accommodate 36.5%

of the total population (Local Government Engineering Department, 2017; Department of Economic and

Social Affairs, 2017). According to Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2017), urban population

of Bangladesh will exceed rural population by 2030. About 60% of the urban population reside in the city

corporations (Parvin et al., 2013). Economic opportunities are also concentrated in the largest cities of

Bangladesh (Ahmed and Ahmed, n.d.). The contribution of these urban areas to GDP was about 65% in 2012

(Ahmed and Ahmed, n.d.). Climate change will increase rural urban migration which would add to the

existing challenges of the cities of Bangladesh from socio-economic and environmental contexts (Martin et

al., 2013; International Organization for Migration, 2010).

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014) shows that, climate change would have influence on

water supply systems, built infrastructure, energy systems, food systems and security, transportation and

communication systems, key economic sectors, livelihoods and access to basic services in urban areas.

Globally a number of cities such as Greater Manchester, Dar es Salaam, Durban, London, New York city,

1 Lecturer, Dept. of Urban and Regional Planning, BUET, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh. 2 Professor, Dept. of Urban and Regional Planning, BUET, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh

Email of Corresponding Author – [email protected]



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Denver, Lagos, Santiago de Chile, Mexico City, Leicester City, Esmeraldas, Milwaukee etc. have been facing

these impacts of climate change and already have taken mitigation and adaptation policies, plans and

programs (Revi et al., 2014; Gill et al., 2007; Bulkeley and Betsill, 2013; Rosenzweig et al., 2011)

As, most of the population and income generating activities are concentrated in the urban areas, climate

change would have huge impact in urban areas of Bangladesh. This research aims at exploring the impact of

climate change in different urban areas of Bangladesh and identify the most vulnerable urban areas.

Research Framework

Data has been collected from secondary sources. Maps showing climate change induced drought, flood, storm

surge inundation, salinity intrusion, temperature rise and excessive precipitation have been collected from

Bangladesh Planning Commission (2018), Matthew et al. (2015), Rabbani and Haq (2016) and BCAS (2010).

GIS Shape file showing the urban areas of Bangladesh also has been collected from Rahman et al. (2018).

Vector overlay has been used to identify the most vulnerable urban areas due to climate change. Table 1

shows the parameters used, indicator of the parameter, weight given on the parameter, rank of the type of

parameter etc. for vector overlay. Natural Break (Jenks) method has been used to classify the overlay values

into less vulnerable (0-0.8), vulnerable (0.9-1.5) and most vulnerable (1.6-2.5) clusters.

Table 1. Suitable range of criteria for vector overlay (Author, 2018)

Parameters Indicator Weight Types Suitability

parameter

Rank Source

Climate

change

induced

drought

Severity of

drought 0.167

Unaffected Not vulnerable 0 BCAS,

2010 Moderate Less vulnerable 1

Severe Moderate vulnerable 2

Very severe Most vulnerable 3

Climate

change

induced saline

intrusion

Inundation

risk zone 0.167

Unaffected Not vulnerable 0 PC,

2018 1-5 ppt Less vulnerable 1

5-15 ppt Moderate vulnerable 2

>15 ppt Most vulnerable 3

Climate

change

induced flood

Flood depth

0.167

Unaffected Not vulnerable 0 Rabbani

and

Haq,

2016

< 30 cm Less vulnerable 1

30-60 cm Moderate vulnerable 2

> 60 cm Most vulnerable 3

Climate

change

induced storm

surge

Inundation

risk zone 0.167

Unaffected Not vulnerable 0 PC,

2018 1-3 m Less vulnerable 1

3-6 m Moderate vulnerable 2

> 6 m Most vulnerable 3

Temperature

change

Annual

average

temperature 0.167

24.49 -25.610C Not vulnerable 0 Matthe

w et al.,

2015 25.62 -26.310C Less vulnerable 1

26.32 -27.010C Moderate vulnerable 2

27.02 -28.150C Most vulnerable 3

Climate

change

induced

precipitation

Annual

average

precipitation

(in mm/day)

0.167

3.06- 4.98 Not vulnerable 0 Matthe

w et al.,

2015 4.99- 7.67 Less vulnerable 1

7.68-10.19 Moderate vulnerable 2

10.20-12.37 Most vulnerable 3

Urban areas of Bangladesh

Pourashavas

According to LGED (2017), the Pourashavas have been classified into three types based on the minimum of

annual revenues collected over last three years. A class Pourashavas has income more than BDT 6 million

while B Class has income BDT 2.5 to 6 million and C Class Pourashavas has income less than BDT 2.5

million (LGED, 2017). There are 154 A class Pourashavas, 99 B class Pourashavas, 61 C class Pourashavas

among the urban areas (Rahman et al., 2018).

City Corporation

There are 12 city corporations in Bangladesh. The city corporations are Chittagong City Corporation (CCC),

Comilla City Corporation (COCC), Dhaka North City Corporation (DNCC), Dhaka South City Corporation

(DSCC), Gazipur City Corporation (GCC), Narayanganj City Corporation (NCC), Barisal City Corporation



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(BCC), Khulna City Corporation (KCC), Mymensingh City Corporation (MCC), Rajshahi City Corporation

(RCC), Rangpur City Corporation (RACC) and Sylhet City Corporation (SCC). (City Corporations of

Bangladesh, 2014)

Urban Areas in Different Climate Change Induced Hazard Zones

Table 2 shows the distribution of urban areas facing different types of climate change induced hazards such

as drought, saline intrusion, flood, storm surge, temperature rise and extreme precipitation. The table shows

that, two city corporations faces severe drought (GCC and RCC), one faces severe saline intrusion (Cox’s

Bazar city corporation), three faces severe flood (BCC, KCC and NCC), two faces temperature rise (KCC

and RCC) and two faces extreme precipitation (SCC and Cox’s Bazar city corporation).

Table 2: Distribution of urban areas facing different types of climate change induced hazards

Type of hazard Impact

Type of urban area*

Total A B C City Corporation

Climate change

induced drought

Unaffected 53 39 23 3 118

Moderate 31 8 13 5 57

Severe 40 28 14 2 84

Very severe 30 24 11 2 67

Climate change

induced saline

intrusion

Unaffected 137 91 57 9 294

Less saline intrusion (1-5 ppt) 13 3 0 1 17

Moderate saline intrusion (5-15 ppt) 3 4 1 1 9

Severe saline intrusion (>15 ppt) 1 1 3 1 6

Climate change

induced flood

Unaffected 79 50 33 7 169

Less flood depth (< 30 cm) 28 24 15 1 68

Medium flood depth (30-60 cm) 24 12 4 1 41

Severe storm surge (> 60 cm) 23 13 9 3 48

Climate change

induced storm

surge

Unaffected 119 80 50 8 257

Less storm surge depth (1-3 m) 11 6 4 3 24

Medium surge depth (3-6 m) 16 10 3 1 30

Severe storm surge depth (> 6 m) 8 3 4 0 15

Temperature

change

Unaffected (24.490C -25.610C) 6 2 3 1 12

Less (25.620C -26.310C) 20 9 11 1 41

Moderate (26.320C -27.010C) 76 57 33 8 174

Severe (27.020C -28.150C) 52 31 14 2 99

Climate change

induced

precipitation

Less (3.06- 4.98 mm/ day) 23 17 8 1 49

Less medium (4.99- 7.67 mm/day) 91 61 32 8 192

Medium (7.68-10.19 mm/day) 37 17 21 1 76

Severe (10.20-12.37 mm/day) 3 4 0 2 9

*Compiled by author from Bangladesh Planning Commission, 2018; Matthew et al., 2015; Rabbani and Haq,

2016; Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies, 2010 and Rahman et al., 2018

Figure 1-6 shows the spatial distribution of the urban areas in different climate change induced hazard prone

areas. Figure 1 shows that the west side of Bangladesh is in the climate change induced drought prone area

and 30 A class Pourashavas, 24 B class Pourashavas and 11 C class Pourashavas are situated here. Similarly,

figure 2, 3 and 4 shows that, most of the climate change induced flood, salinity intrusion and storm surge will

occur in the south side of Bangladesh. Figure 5 and 6 shows the climate change induced temperature change

and precipitation in Bangladesh.



Page | 358

Figure 1: Urban areas facing climate induced

drought in Bangladesh. (Base map source:

Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies, 2010)


flood in Bangladesh. (Base map source: Rabbani

and Haq, 2016)


storm surge in Bangladesh. (Base map source:

Bangladesh Planning Commission, 2018)


salinity intrusion in Bangladesh. (Base map

source: Bangladesh Planning Commission, 2018)



Page | 359

These urban areas in the most vulnerable zones face multiple climate change induced hazards (Figure 1-6).

Magura Pourashava, Narail Pourashava and Satkhira Pourashava are facing severe climate induced flood,

drought and temperature rise. Feni Pourashava faces severe draught, moderate temperature rises and extreme

precipitation. On the other hand, Paikgacha Pourashava faces drought, saline intrusion and temperature rise.

Vulnerability of the Urban Areas Considering Climate Change Induced Hazards

After performing vector overlay, the most vulnerable urban areas due to climate change induced hazards has

been identified. Table 3 shows that, there are twelve A class Pourashavas, four B class Pourashavas, three C

class Pourashavas and two city corporations in the most vulnerable zone due to climate change.

Table 3: Vulnerable urban areas considering all the climate change induced hazards

Type of urban area Less vulnerable Vulnerable Most vulnerable

A Class Pourashavas 75 67 12

B Class Pourashavas 43 52 4

C Class Pourashavas 33 25 3

City Corporation 5 5 2

Total 156 149 21

Figure 7 shows the spatial distribution of the urban areas in the vulnerable zone of climate change. A class

Pourashavas in the vulnerable zones are Pirojpur Pourashava, Feni Pourashava, Magura Pourashava, Amtali

Pourashava, Burhanuddin Pourashava, Kalapara Pourashava, Lalmohan Pourashava, Mongla Port

Pourashava, Satkhira Pourashava, Bagerhat Pourashava, Narail Pourashava and Paikgacha Pourashava. B

class Pourashavas in the vulnerable zones are Morrelganj Pourashava, Baufal Pourashava, Chalna Pourashava

and Maheshkhali Pourashava. Again, C class Pourashavas in the vulnerable zones are Hatiya Pourashava,

Ramgati Pourashava and Sandwip Pourashava. KCC and Cox’s bazar city corporation are also situated in the

most vulnerable area.

Allocation of BCCTF (Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund) shows that, among the most vulnerable 21


temperature rise in Bangladesh. (Base map

source: Matthew et al., 2015)


precipitation in Bangladesh. (Base map source:

Matthew et al., 2015)



Page | 360

urban areas, BCCTF funded projects have been taken in only 12 urban areas (BCCT, 2017). Nine projects

have been taken in A class Pourashavas (Pirojpur Pourashava, Feni Pourashava, Magura Pourashava, Amtali

Pourashava, Burhanuddin Pourashava, Kalapara Pourashava, Lalmohan Pourashava, Mongla Port

Pourashava and Satkhira Pourashava), two projects have been taken in B class Pourashavas (Morrelganj

Pourashava and Baufal Pourashava) and one project has been taken in KCC (BCCT, 2017). Again, no project

has been taken in the most vulnerable C class Pourashavas (BCCT, 2017). BCCT (2017) also shows that, four

projects have been taken in Pirojpur Pourashava, three projects in Feni Pourashava and two projects in

Magura Pourashava and Morrelganj Pourashava.

Figure 7: Urban areas of Bangladesh in the vulnerable areas of climate change induced hazards.

(Source: Author, 2018)

Conclusions

The urban areas of Bangladesh are facing climate change induced drought, flood, storm surge inundation,

salinity intrusion, temperature rise and excessive precipitation etc. which have influence on water supply

systems, waste water system, green built infrastructure, energy systems, food systems, transportation and

communication systems, housing sector, human health sector etc. This research identifies the most vulnerable

urban areas of Bangladesh along with the type of climate induced hazards in the urban area. Most of the

vulnerable urban areas facing climate change induced hazards are situated on the south side of Bangladesh.

This research also shows that, twelve A class Pourashavas, four B class Pourashavas, three C class

Pourashavas and two city corporations are situated in the most vulnerable zone. So, necessary adaptation and

mitigation measures should be taken for addressing the climate change induced hazards in these vulnerable

urban areas. Future climate fund allocation should also consider these vulnerable urban areas.

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