A State of Flux
description
Transcript of A State of Flux
![Page 1: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
1
A State of FluxSteen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment OfficerSaxo Bank A/S
May 2014
![Page 2: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
Ockham’s Razor
Stock Market lags real economy by three months
Interest rates leads real economy by nine months
![Page 3: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
What did happen 9-12 month ago?
![Page 4: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
What did happen 3 month ago?
![Page 5: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
Germany the negative surprise….
![Page 6: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
Germany the negative surprise….
![Page 7: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
No more “easy money….?”
![Page 8: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
The Classic correlation S&P & FED BS
![Page 9: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Tapering – marginal change?
![Page 10: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
Valuations becoming real issue in the US
![Page 11: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
Inflation is now unanchored…
![Page 12: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Forward guidance false?
![Page 13: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
Our JABA model says…low in 2015-Q1
![Page 14: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Our biggest call: Yields will go to new lows..
![Page 15: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
Global imbalances – global balances
![Page 16: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
US rates to the rescue?…….
![Page 17: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
China: Friend or foe for growth?….
![Page 18: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
Iron ore leading growth…….
![Page 19: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
Weaker global growth will hurt BRL & AUD
![Page 20: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
The worlds growth engine is sputtering…
![Page 21: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
Market Calls…..Earnings based projection..
![Page 22: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22
Will equity finally pay the price..?
![Page 23: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23
Macro Outlook in headlines
Positions: Mega long fixed income (Q3-2013) – See new lows in yield FX: Short AUDUSD(.8000 sub target),EURUSD(sub 1.2500) Sell ZAR, TRY and IDR soon (all basket cases….w. no reform) Equity: Long Israel + Russia vs. SPX (CAPE <10 vs. CAPE >24 (avg
13/14 – waiting for catalyst to short SPX & DAX (plus Club Med)
Monetary Policy: ECB will disappoint – they love to talk…too much… BOJ is cornered (USDJPY 92/93 FED will taper the taper….. Fight will be on deflation…..now unanchored
Economics: Germany will go towards negative growth in Q4/Q1-2014/2015 Fragile Eight: No reforms, elections – it’s time to sell….. 2014: Another lost year 2015 H2: The true recovery
![Page 24: A State of Flux](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081505/5681623b550346895dd26f25/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24
Thank you!