A spatial model of emerald ash borer spread
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Transcript of A spatial model of emerald ash borer spread
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A Spatial Model of Emerald Ash Borer Spread in New York StateHerb SusmannIntroduction to GIS12/9/12
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Introduction• Invasive species• Highly destructive• Spread by insect flight, human activities• Less than 1% of New York forests infested• 700 million trees at risk
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http://datcpservices.wisconsin.gov/eab/images/eabhome.jpghttp://www.emeraldashborer.info/images/EABadultsideview.jpg
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http://www.bauermeistertree.com/uploads/8/5/1/2/8512477/6713457_orig.jpghttp://www.dec.ny.gov/images/lands_forests_images/eablarva1.jpg
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http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/news_cut/content_images/ash_borer.jpg
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http://www.dec.ny.gov/images/lands_forests_images/eabquarmap.jpg
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Research Question
Can we predict how the emerald ash borer will spread across New York State?
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The Model• Simulates EAB Spread• Infested cells have a chance of infecting nearby cells• Can spread long distances to campgrounds
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Month 1
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Month 2
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Month 3
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Month 4
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Infection Probabilities
Insect Flight
Moving Firewood
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Data• Population – Price Data• Ash Basal Area – US Forest Service• Campgrounds – Multiple Online Sources• 2012 Infested Area – DEC Map
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TIF Raster TIF Raster TIF Raster
Model
TIF Raster
ArcMap
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Year 0
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Year 1
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Year 2
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Year 3
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Year 4
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Year 5
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Year 6
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Year 7
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Year 8
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Year 9
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Year 10
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Future Work• Integrate more sources of spread• Collect more data• Expand to other invasive species