A SNAPSHOT OF US CPG AND RETAIL IN 2018 · US Retail Sales Traditional Value Creation Model vs New...
Transcript of A SNAPSHOT OF US CPG AND RETAIL IN 2018 · US Retail Sales Traditional Value Creation Model vs New...
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• Stable growth
• 25% gross margin advantage over nonbranded players
• Broad distribution
• Limited competitive set
• 75% of CPG revenue growth over past 10 years
• ~4-6% of general and administrative costs cut
• Attractive market structure
• Opportunity to step change organic revenue growth
A SNAPSHOT OF US CPG AND RETAIL IN 2018
US CPG Industry Sales
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E
726
757753
769
786
800
Source - US Census Bureau, McKinsey & Co.
US Retail Sales
Traditional Value Creation Model vs New Value Creation Model
Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) Industry’s Traditional 5-part model for value creation
The new model for CPG is a three-part portfolio strategy enabled by an agile operating model, with continued use of M&A as an accelerator.
Relentless focus on innovation
Early access to best technologies
Innovation based on rapid test and learn
Advanced analytics to drive insights, cost
and revenue management,
production, and supply
Market leadership in digital/mobile
Targeted digital marketing
Local market autonomy to ensure
local relevance
Full use of retailer e-commerce and direct
to consumer channels
Joined-up conflict-resistant sales approach that wins with e-commerce giants
Supply capability adapted to small
runs and shipments
Excellence in Mature Markets
Leapfrogging in Emerging Markets
Hothousing in Premium Niches
Agile organization: dynamic front end, stable backbone
1 2 3
3-part Portfolio Strategy
Semiautonomous agile teams
Digital/IT capability
Data and advanced analytics capability
Mass supply system
Niche supply system
Back-office functions
Continued use of M&A as an accelerator to drive market consolidation and fuel organic growth
4
5
Agile operating
model
Organic growth of CPG Companies – Lagging GDP
Organic CPG industry growth has been weak, with large companies growing at only about half the rate of US GDP growth.Performance of CPG companies in terms of Net Revenues (2012-16)
6.0
3.7
6.3
6.7 3.0
2.6
1.5
2.5
Source - The World Bank Group; McKinsey analysis
2.7
55% of GDP
0.6
1.1
0.1
0.6
1Compound annual growth rate2Earnings before interest and taxes
All CPGs (n = 290)
Large, >$8 billion (n = 57)
Medium, $2 billion to $8 billion (n = 102)
Small, $0.4 billion to $2 billion (n = 131)
Reported growth, CAGR,1 %
Real organic growth, CAGR,1 %
Median EBIT2 margin expansion (pp)
2012-16 real GDP growth, CAGR1
Source - McKinsey & Co.
($ Billion)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E
3,500
3,618 3,631
3,711
3,8803,936
Source - US Census Bureau
($ Billion)
Consumer and Retail M&A activity
Innovating on Premiumization
Advantaged consumer access via mass-trade
relationships
Developing market-category creation
Optimizing the Operating model
M&A to consolidate markets and enable organic
growth post acquisition
1 2 3 4 5
Source - Dealogic; A.T. Kearney analysis
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$318 $294
$392
Deals < $30 billion Deals > $30 billion
-9% -2% -12% +9% -6%
M&A deal Volume
($ Billion)
$358
$468
$63
$295 $335 $328
$64
$133
-16%
VALUE CREATED
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A SNAPSHOT OF US CPG AND RETAIL IN 2018
Target Company
AcquirorTarget Company AcquirorTarget Company
Target Company Acquiror
AcquirorTarget Company
Debt/EBITDA Multiples for Publicly Traded Firms Average EV/ EBITDA Multiples
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US Consumer and Retail Deal Flow Largest Buyout deals Closed (LTM)
Exit Value & No. of Exits Exits by Type (LTM)
Acquiror
$0.3
Deal Value
$1.6
Deal Value
$0.8
Deal Value
$0.5
Deal Value
$0.5
Deal Value
29PE
7Strategic
M&A
5IPO
2VC
Source - Pitchbook
2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q2017 1Q2018
Source - Fifth Third Securities, Capital IQ
$300
$135 $92.5
$400
$240.7
$280
206 202
214 211
55
Median Deal Size ($) # of Exits
39
($ Billion)
Source – Pitchbook, Press Releases
( Total Deals – 43)
Source - Fifth Third Securities, Capital IQMiddle Market transactions defined by transactions with an enterprise value below $1 billion
Middle Market (Median): 9.8x > $1 Billion (Median): 11.1x
2015 2016 2017 1Q2017 1Q2018
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
11.1x
12.3x
13.3x
12.0x 11.6x
9.8x
9.3x 9.5x
7.9x
9.6x
$Middle Market > $1 Billion
Source - Fifth Third Securities, Capital IQ
($ Billion)
$62.1
$120.3
$69.1$66.5
$6.9
$42.9
795
915
844789
203 183
Capital Invested ($) # of Deals Closed
2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q20181Q2017
($ Billion)
Note - CPG is consumer packaged goods.Source - Capital IQ; A.T. Kearney analysis
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Retail CPG
2.3x
2.4x 2.4x
2.5x
2.4x2.4x
2.2x
2.1x
2.4x
2.6x