A SNAPSHOT OF US CPG AND RETAIL IN 2018 · US Retail Sales Traditional Value Creation Model vs New...

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For more information, visit www.tresvista.com Stable growth 25% gross margin advantage over nonbranded players Broad distribution Limited competitive set 75% of CPG revenue growth over past 10 years ~4-6% of general and administrative costs cut Attractive market structure Opportunity to step change organic revenue growth A SNAPSHOT OF US CPG AND RETAIL IN 2018 US CPG Industry Sales 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 726 757 753 769 786 800 Source - US Census Bureau, McKinsey & Co. US Retail Sales Traditional Value Creation Model vs New Value Creation Model Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) Industry’s Traditional 5-part model for value creation The new model for CPG is a three-part portfolio strategy enabled by an agile operating model, with continued use of M&A as an accelerator. Relentless focus on innovation Early access to best technologies Innovation based on rapid test and learn Advanced analytics to drive insights, cost and revenue management, production, and supply Market leadership in digital/mobile Targeted digital marketing Local market autonomy to ensure local relevance Full use of retailer e- commerce and direct to consumer channels Joined-up conflict-resistant sales approach that wins with e-commerce giants Supply capability adapted to small runs and shipments Excellence in Mature Markets Leapfrogging in Emerging Markets Hothousing in Premium Niches Agile organization: dynamic front end, stable backbone 1 2 3 3-part Portfolio Strategy Semiautonomous agile teams Digital/IT capability Data and advanced analytics capability Mass supply system Niche supply system Back-office functions Continued use of M&A as an accelerator to drive market consolidation and fuel organic growth 4 5 Agile operating model Organic growth of CPG Companies – Lagging GDP Organic CPG industry growth has been weak, with large companies growing at only about half the rate of US GDP growth. Performance of CPG companies in terms of Net Revenues (2012-16) 6.0 3.7 6.3 6.7 3.0 2.6 1.5 2.5 Source - The World Bank Group; McKinsey analysis 2.7 55% of GDP 0.6 1.1 0.1 0.6 1 Compound annual growth rate 2 Earnings before interest and taxes All CPGs (n = 290) Large, >$8 billion (n = 57) Medium, $2 billion to $8 billion (n = 102) Small, $0.4 billion to $2 billion (n = 131) Reported growth, CAGR, 1 % Real organic growth, CAGR, 1 % Median EBIT 2 margin expansion (pp) 2012-16 real GDP growth, CAGR 1 Source - McKinsey & Co. ($ Billion) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 3,500 3,618 3,631 3,711 3,880 3,936 Source - US Census Bureau ($ Billion) Consumer and Retail M&A activity Innovating on Premiumization Advantaged consumer access via mass-trade relationships Developing market-category creation Optimizing the Operating model M&A to consolidate markets and enable organic growth post acquisition 1 2 3 4 5 Source - Dealogic; A.T. Kearney analysis 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $318 $294 $392 Deals < $30 billion Deals > $30 billion -9% -2% -12% +9% -6% M&A deal Volume ($ Billion) $358 $468 $63 $295 $335 $328 $64 $133 -16% VALUE CREATED

Transcript of A SNAPSHOT OF US CPG AND RETAIL IN 2018 · US Retail Sales Traditional Value Creation Model vs New...

Page 1: A SNAPSHOT OF US CPG AND RETAIL IN 2018 · US Retail Sales Traditional Value Creation Model vs New Value Creation Model Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) Industry’s Traditional 5-part

For more information, visit www.tresvista.com

• Stable growth

• 25% gross margin advantage over nonbranded players

• Broad distribution

• Limited competitive set

• 75% of CPG revenue growth over past 10 years

• ~4-6% of general and administrative costs cut

• Attractive market structure

• Opportunity to step change organic revenue growth

A SNAPSHOT OF US CPG AND RETAIL IN 2018

US CPG Industry Sales

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E

726

757753

769

786

800

Source - US Census Bureau, McKinsey & Co.

US Retail Sales

Traditional Value Creation Model vs New Value Creation Model

Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) Industry’s Traditional 5-part model for value creation

The new model for CPG is a three-part portfolio strategy enabled by an agile operating model, with continued use of M&A as an accelerator.

Relentless focus on innovation

Early access to best technologies

Innovation based on rapid test and learn

Advanced analytics to drive insights, cost

and revenue management,

production, and supply

Market leadership in digital/mobile

Targeted digital marketing

Local market autonomy to ensure

local relevance

Full use of retailer e-commerce and direct

to consumer channels

Joined-up conflict-resistant sales approach that wins with e-commerce giants

Supply capability adapted to small

runs and shipments

Excellence in Mature Markets

Leapfrogging in Emerging Markets

Hothousing in Premium Niches

Agile organization: dynamic front end, stable backbone

1 2 3

3-part Portfolio Strategy

Semiautonomous agile teams

Digital/IT capability

Data and advanced analytics capability

Mass supply system

Niche supply system

Back-office functions

Continued use of M&A as an accelerator to drive market consolidation and fuel organic growth

4

5

Agile operating

model

Organic growth of CPG Companies – Lagging GDP

Organic CPG industry growth has been weak, with large companies growing at only about half the rate of US GDP growth.Performance of CPG companies in terms of Net Revenues (2012-16)

6.0

3.7

6.3

6.7 3.0

2.6

1.5

2.5

Source - The World Bank Group; McKinsey analysis

2.7

55% of GDP

0.6

1.1

0.1

0.6

1Compound annual growth rate2Earnings before interest and taxes

All CPGs (n = 290)

Large, >$8 billion (n = 57)

Medium, $2 billion to $8 billion (n = 102)

Small, $0.4 billion to $2 billion (n = 131)

Reported growth, CAGR,1 %

Real organic growth, CAGR,1 %

Median EBIT2 margin expansion (pp)

2012-16 real GDP growth, CAGR1

Source - McKinsey & Co.

($ Billion)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E

3,500

3,618 3,631

3,711

3,8803,936

Source - US Census Bureau

($ Billion)

Consumer and Retail M&A activity

Innovating on Premiumization

Advantaged consumer access via mass-trade

relationships

Developing market-category creation

Optimizing the Operating model

M&A to consolidate markets and enable organic

growth post acquisition

1 2 3 4 5

Source - Dealogic; A.T. Kearney analysis

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$318 $294

$392

Deals < $30 billion Deals > $30 billion

-9% -2% -12% +9% -6%

M&A deal Volume

($ Billion)

$358

$468

$63

$295 $335 $328

$64

$133

-16%

VALUE CREATED

Page 2: A SNAPSHOT OF US CPG AND RETAIL IN 2018 · US Retail Sales Traditional Value Creation Model vs New Value Creation Model Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) Industry’s Traditional 5-part

For more information, visit www.tresvista.com

A SNAPSHOT OF US CPG AND RETAIL IN 2018

Target Company

AcquirorTarget Company AcquirorTarget Company

Target Company Acquiror

AcquirorTarget Company

Debt/EBITDA Multiples for Publicly Traded Firms Average EV/ EBITDA Multiples

TresVista is the leading provider of high-end outsourced support for asset managers, investment banks, research firms, and corporates. TresVista delivers operational efficiencies and cost savings to clients while providing them with dedicated teams to support across functions. Supported functions include investor relations, deal sourcing, deal execution, data analytics, valuation, research, financial modeling, portfolio management, marketing, design, fund administration and book-keeping.

ABOUT TRESVISTA

US Consumer and Retail Deal Flow Largest Buyout deals Closed (LTM)

Exit Value & No. of Exits Exits by Type (LTM)

Acquiror

$0.3

Deal Value

$1.6

Deal Value

$0.8

Deal Value

$0.5

Deal Value

$0.5

Deal Value

29PE

7Strategic

M&A

5IPO

2VC

Source - Pitchbook

2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q2017 1Q2018

Source - Fifth Third Securities, Capital IQ

$300

$135 $92.5

$400

$240.7

$280

206 202

214 211

55

Median Deal Size ($) # of Exits

39

($ Billion)

Source – Pitchbook, Press Releases

( Total Deals – 43)

Source - Fifth Third Securities, Capital IQMiddle Market transactions defined by transactions with an enterprise value below $1 billion

Middle Market (Median): 9.8x > $1 Billion (Median): 11.1x

2015 2016 2017 1Q2017 1Q2018

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

11.1x

12.3x

13.3x

12.0x 11.6x

9.8x

9.3x 9.5x

7.9x

9.6x

$Middle Market > $1 Billion

Source - Fifth Third Securities, Capital IQ

($ Billion)

$62.1

$120.3

$69.1$66.5

$6.9

$42.9

795

915

844789

203 183

Capital Invested ($) # of Deals Closed

2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q20181Q2017

($ Billion)

Note - CPG is consumer packaged goods.Source - Capital IQ; A.T. Kearney analysis

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Retail CPG

2.3x

2.4x 2.4x

2.5x

2.4x2.4x

2.2x

2.1x

2.4x

2.6x