A Snapshot of Relevant Economic and Demographic Trends for the Future of Transportation Policy in...
23
A Snapshot of Relevant Economic and Demographic Trends for the Future of Transportation Policy in Maine Michael Donihue Associate Professor of Economics at Colby College Long Range Planning Workshop Maine Department of Transportation August 15, 2005
-
Upload
meredith-paul -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
0
Transcript of A Snapshot of Relevant Economic and Demographic Trends for the Future of Transportation Policy in...
A Snapshot of Relevant Economic and Demographic Trends for the Future of
Transportation Policy in Maine
Michael DonihueAssociate Professor of Economics at Colby College
Long Range Planning WorkshopMaine Department of TransportationAugust 15, 2005
Overview
Economic Trends Demographic Trends Engines of Economic Growth Policy Prescriptions
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Nonagricultural Employment
U nited States
New England
Maine
Last Last 5 Yrs 10 YrsUS 0.38% 1.41%NE 0.03% 1.02%ME 0.91% 1.45%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Manufacturing Employment
U nited States
New England
Maine
Last Last 5 Yrs 10 YrsUS -3.7% -1.7%NE -4.5% -2.6%ME -4.8% -2.8%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Labor Force
Maine
U nited States
New England
Last Last 5 Yrs 10 YrsUS 0.93% 1.05%NE 0.54% 0.67%ME 1.12% 1.18%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Real Personal Income
U nited States
New England
Maine
Last Last 5 Yrs 10 YrsUS 2.42% 3.20%NE 2.40% 3.19%ME 3.52% 3.32%
Demographic Trends
1990 – 2000 Annualized rate of population growth in Maine was 0.38%
Compared with a national rate of 1.24% per year
Growth in New England averaged 0.53% annually
By 2004 the population in Maine was 1.3 million persons (9.25% of New England)
Birth Rates in Maine
Year Birth Rate(live births per thousand)
1990 14.1
1995 11.2
2000 10.7
2004 10.5
In-Migration to Maine
1995 – 2000
Previous LocationNumber of
PersonsPercent of Total
In-Migration
Moved “From Away” 118,512
Moved from a different US State
107,999 91.1
Northeast State 57,431 48.5
Midwest State 9,654 8.2
State in the South 26,020 22.0
State in the West 14,894 12.6
Foreign Country 10,117 8.5
Net Migration ForMaine and New England
Total NetMigration
International Domestic
Maine -3,542 3,895 -7,437
New England -252,828 253,411 -506,239
1990 - 1999
Total NetMigration
International Domestic
Maine 38,538 4,182 34,356
New England 121,440 234,683 -113,243
Net Migration ForMaine and New England
2000 - 2004
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
2004*
Total Female Male
3.03% 2.68% 3.36%
2010
*2004 data are US Census Bureau estimates. All other data are US Census Bureau projections consistent with the 2000 Census.
Predicted Cumulative Population Growth 2004 - 2010
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
0 - 4 5 - 910 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 84 85+
Gen X
Boomers
Gen Y
WWII
PreWWIIFemaleMale
Post 1980
Gen X
Boomers
WWII
PreWWII
Male Female
Population Pyramids for MaineThousands of Persons
Population Estimates by Demographic Group
2004 % of Total % Female % Male
Pre WWII 7.16 4.46 2.70
WWII 12.28 6.43 5.85
Boomers 31.54 16.04 15.50
Gen X 18.15 9.21 8.93
Gen Y 30.87 15.03 15.83
2010 % of Total % Female % Male
Pre WWII 4.66 3.03 1.63
WWII 10.98 5.90 5.08
Boomers 30.46 15.63 14.82
Gen X 18.99 9.69 9.29
Post 1980 34.91 17.08 17.83
Maine
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Total Female Male
3.80% 3.45% 4.12%
2020 2030
Total Female Male
0.17% -0.55% 0.86%
Population Growth: 2010 to 2020 Population Growth 2020 to 2030
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
0 - 4 5 - 910 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 84 85+
Post 1980
Post 1980
Gen X
Boomers
WWII
Gen X
Boomers
WWII
Male
Male
Female
Female
Population Pyramids for MaineThousands of Persons
2020 % of Total % Female % Male
WWII 8.69 5.25 3.44
Boomers 27.57 14.44 13.13
Gen X 19.03 9.75 9.28
Post 1980 44.71 22.07 22.64
2030 % of Total % Female % Male
WWII 3.70 2.40 1.30
Boomers 22.80 12.59 10.21
Gen X 18.88 9.76 9.12
Post 1980 54.62 27.10 27.52
Maine
Population Estimates by Demographic Group
Census Bureau Population Estimates for Maine
Year Total Males Females% change from 2004
Period-to-Period Annualized Rate
of Growth
2004 1,317,253 674,110 643,143
2010 1,357,134 696,749 660,385 3.03 0.50
2020 1,408,665 725,469 683,196 6.94 0.37
2030 1,411,097 731,678 679,419 7.12 0.02
Population Pyramids for New EnglandThousands of Persons
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
0 - 4 5 - 910 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 84 85+
20102004
Total Female Male
3.51 3.07 3.93
Population Growth 2004 to 2010
Male Male
Post 1980
Gen Y
Gen XGen X
BoomersBoomers
WWIIWWII
PreWWIIPreWWII
Female Female
2010 % of Total % Female % Male
Pre WWII 4.48 2.96 1.52
WWII 9.54 5.27 4.27
Boomers 27.98 14.42 13.56
Gen X 19.74 10.11 9.63
Post 1980 38.26 18.87 19.39
2004 % of Total % Female % Male
Pre WWII 7.12 4.49 2.63
WWII 10.78 5.77 5.01
Boomers 29.65 15.17 14.49
Gen X 20.15 10.19 9.96
Post 1980 32.30 15.80 16.50
New England
Population Estimates by Demographic Group
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
0 - 4 5 - 910 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 7980 - 84 85+
Total Female Male
3.87 3.58 4.15
2020 2030
Total Female Male
2.05 1.49 2.57
Population Growth: 2010 to 2020 Population Growth 2020 to 2030
FemaleFemale MaleMale
Post 1980
Gen X
Gen X
Boomers
Boomers
WWIIWWII
Post 1980
Population Pyramids for New EnglandThousands of Persons
2020 % of Total % Female % Male
WWII 7.64 4.74 2.90
Boomers 23.66 12.53 11.12
Gen X 18.84 9.70 9.14
Post 1980 49.86 24.79 25.07
2030 % of Total % Female % Male
WWII 3.22 2.15 1.07
Boomers 18.57 10.41 8.16
Gen X 17.09 8.90 8.18
Post 1980 61.12 30.56 30.55
New England
Population Estimates by Demographic Group
Census Bureau Population Estimates for New England
Year Total Males Females% change from
2004
Period-to-Period Annualized Rate
of Growth
2004 14,238,888 7,321,257 6,917,631
2010 14,738,789 7,608,931 7,129,858 3.51 0.58
2020 15,309,528 7,924,576 7,384,952 7.52 0.38
2030 15,623,015 8,128,247 7,494,768 9.72 0.20
Why are demographics important? Transportation infrastructure needs of an
aging population are different Has implications for the type of housing
structures needed in the future Important implications for demand for goods Perhaps most important are trends in
demands for services An important determinant of economic growth
Engines of Economic Growth Output is produced using people, machines,
and energy/raw materials. How much is produced depends on the
available technology
Four sources of Growth:
1. Population Growth (labor force)
2. Growth in the Capital Stock
3. Growth in Technology
4. Growth in energy and raw materials
Role for Transportation Policy Labor supply and demand. To the extent that there
exist transportation barriers in Maine then policy can play a role in increasing employment opportunities by removing the barriers.
Capital stock. Transportation infrastructure is important. Moving goods and services both within the state and creating access to export markets.
Technological improvements in the design, construction, and maintenance of our transportation infrastructure will improve Maine’s growth potential.
Role for Maine DOT
Proactive: Correct policies will contribute to Maine’s economic growth potential.
Reactive policies: By simply responding to existing needs we’re simply playing catch-up thus hampering the potential for future growth.
Constraints include limits of time and money.
Policy Prescription: “Intelligent Design” DOT can play the role of creator of
evolutionary transportation systems Key is incentives Improved public transit systems in Portland
will encourage evolutionary housing opportunities and reduce sprawl
Seek public/private partnerships. Island Explorer in Acadia; Bio-diesel fuel; E-Zpass
Alternative pricing schemes on the Maine Turnpike
