A Shift of Standards Induced by Attentional Collapse With Carey Morewedge (CMU), Tim Wilson (U....
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Transcript of A Shift of Standards Induced by Attentional Collapse With Carey Morewedge (CMU), Tim Wilson (U....
![Page 1: A Shift of Standards Induced by Attentional Collapse With Carey Morewedge (CMU), Tim Wilson (U. Virginia), & Kristian Myrseth (U. Chicago)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649e375503460f94b271f0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
A Shift of Standards Induced by Attentional Collapse
With Carey Morewedge (CMU), Tim Wilson (U. Virginia), & Kristian Myrseth (U. Chicago)
![Page 2: A Shift of Standards Induced by Attentional Collapse With Carey Morewedge (CMU), Tim Wilson (U. Virginia), & Kristian Myrseth (U. Chicago)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649e375503460f94b271f0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
• An affective forecast is a conscious or nonconscious prediction about the hedonic impact of a future event.
• A discrepancy between a forecast and an experience constitutes an affective forecasting error.
• These errors are sizeable, pervasive, and self-erasing.
• What causes them?
![Page 3: A Shift of Standards Induced by Attentional Collapse With Carey Morewedge (CMU), Tim Wilson (U. Virginia), & Kristian Myrseth (U. Chicago)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649e375503460f94b271f0/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
“As for the terms good and bad, they indicate no positive quality in things regarded in themselves, but are merely modes of thinking, or notions which we form from the comparison of things with one another.
Benedict Spinoza (1677)
![Page 4: A Shift of Standards Induced by Attentional Collapse With Carey Morewedge (CMU), Tim Wilson (U. Virginia), & Kristian Myrseth (U. Chicago)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649e375503460f94b271f0/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
• Judging the hedonic value of a target
experience involves comparing it with a
standard experience, and different standards
may yield different judgments.
• Standards may vary on three dimensions:
• Similarity to target experience
• Probability of occurrence
• Time of occurrence
![Page 5: A Shift of Standards Induced by Attentional Collapse With Carey Morewedge (CMU), Tim Wilson (U. Virginia), & Kristian Myrseth (U. Chicago)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649e375503460f94b271f0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Present experience
Dissimilar actual past experience
Similar counterfactual present experience
Similar unlikely future experience
P = 0
S = 0
T = -n
T = n
P = 1
S = 1T = 0
Time
Probability
Similarity
Eating a doughnut now
![Page 6: A Shift of Standards Induced by Attentional Collapse With Carey Morewedge (CMU), Tim Wilson (U. Virginia), & Kristian Myrseth (U. Chicago)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649e375503460f94b271f0/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
P = 0
S = 0
T = -n
T = n
P = 1
S = 1T = 0
Time
Probability
Similarity
Present experience
Dissimilar actual past experience
Similar counterfactual present experience
Similar unlikely future experience
Eating an apple yesterday
Eating a doughnut now
![Page 7: A Shift of Standards Induced by Attentional Collapse With Carey Morewedge (CMU), Tim Wilson (U. Virginia), & Kristian Myrseth (U. Chicago)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649e375503460f94b271f0/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
P = 0
S = 0
T = -n
T = n
P = 1
S = 1T = 0
Time
Probability
Similarity
Present experience
Dissimilar actual past experience
Similar counterfactual present experience
Similar unlikely future experience
Eating an éclair now
Eating an apple yesterday
Eating a doughnut now
![Page 8: A Shift of Standards Induced by Attentional Collapse With Carey Morewedge (CMU), Tim Wilson (U. Virginia), & Kristian Myrseth (U. Chicago)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649e375503460f94b271f0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
P = 0
S = 0
T = -n
T = n
P = 1
S = 1T = 0
Time
Probability
Similarity
Present experience
Dissimilar actual past experience
Similar counterfactual present experience
Similar possible future experience
Eating an éclair tomorrow
Eating an éclair now
Eating an apple yesterday
Eating a doughnut now
![Page 9: A Shift of Standards Induced by Attentional Collapse With Carey Morewedge (CMU), Tim Wilson (U. Virginia), & Kristian Myrseth (U. Chicago)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649e375503460f94b271f0/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Proposition 1: Mental Travel in SPT Space Requires Conscious Attention Proportional to Distance
Time
Probability
Similarity
![Page 10: A Shift of Standards Induced by Attentional Collapse With Carey Morewedge (CMU), Tim Wilson (U. Virginia), & Kristian Myrseth (U. Chicago)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649e375503460f94b271f0/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Proposition 2: Experience Consumes Conscious Attention and Thus Restricts Mental Travel in SPT Space
Time
Probability
Similarity
![Page 11: A Shift of Standards Induced by Attentional Collapse With Carey Morewedge (CMU), Tim Wilson (U. Virginia), & Kristian Myrseth (U. Chicago)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649e375503460f94b271f0/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
The Shifting Standards Hypothesis
• Because having an experience consumes attention, it restricts the range of standards with which the experience may be compared.
• Thus people who are forecasting an experience will use more “distant” standards than people who are actually having the experience.
• Using different standards during forecast and experience causes affective forecasting errors.
![Page 12: A Shift of Standards Induced by Attentional Collapse With Carey Morewedge (CMU), Tim Wilson (U. Virginia), & Kristian Myrseth (U. Chicago)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649e375503460f94b271f0/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Forecasters Imagined eating potato chips after eating standard food
Experiencers Ate potato chips after eating standard food
Standard Food = Sardines or Chocolate
Study 1: Dissimilar Probable Past Standards
![Page 13: A Shift of Standards Induced by Attentional Collapse With Carey Morewedge (CMU), Tim Wilson (U. Virginia), & Kristian Myrseth (U. Chicago)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649e375503460f94b271f0/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecasters Experiencers
Enjoyment of Chips
*
Study 1: Dissimilar Probable Past Standards
![Page 14: A Shift of Standards Induced by Attentional Collapse With Carey Morewedge (CMU), Tim Wilson (U. Virginia), & Kristian Myrseth (U. Chicago)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649e375503460f94b271f0/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Forecasters Imagined eating potato chips before standard food
Experiencers Ate potato chips before standard food
Standard Food = Sardines or Chocolate
Study 2: Dissimilar Probable Future Standards
![Page 15: A Shift of Standards Induced by Attentional Collapse With Carey Morewedge (CMU), Tim Wilson (U. Virginia), & Kristian Myrseth (U. Chicago)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649e375503460f94b271f0/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecasters Experiencers
Enjoyment of Chips *
Study 2: Dissimilar Probable Future Standards
![Page 16: A Shift of Standards Induced by Attentional Collapse With Carey Morewedge (CMU), Tim Wilson (U. Virginia), & Kristian Myrseth (U. Chicago)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649e375503460f94b271f0/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Forecasters Imagined eating potato chips with standard food in room
Experiencers Ate potato chips with standard food in the room
Standard Food = Sardines or Chocolate
Study 3: Dissimilar Improbable Present Standards
![Page 17: A Shift of Standards Induced by Attentional Collapse With Carey Morewedge (CMU), Tim Wilson (U. Virginia), & Kristian Myrseth (U. Chicago)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649e375503460f94b271f0/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Forecasters Experiencers
Enjoyment of Chips *
Study 3: Dissimilar Improbable Present Standards
![Page 18: A Shift of Standards Induced by Attentional Collapse With Carey Morewedge (CMU), Tim Wilson (U. Virginia), & Kristian Myrseth (U. Chicago)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649e375503460f94b271f0/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Standard Food = Sardines or Chocolate Role
Forecasters imagined eating 5 chips before standard food Experiencers ate 5 chips before standard food
Pace: Normal (1 chip per 15 seconds) Slow-Mo (1 chip per 45 seconds)
Study 4: Attentional Collapse
![Page 19: A Shift of Standards Induced by Attentional Collapse With Carey Morewedge (CMU), Tim Wilson (U. Virginia), & Kristian Myrseth (U. Chicago)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649e375503460f94b271f0/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
En
joy
Ch
ips
Slow-Mo
* **
Normal
Forecaster Experiencer Forecaster Experiencer
Study 4: Attentional Collapse