A Role for Science & Technology Foresight in CTBT-ISS ?

Exploring the next generation verification system

Matthias Weber and Ron Johnston

ARC systems research & Australian Centre for Innovation

Vienna, 17 September 2008

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Overview

The context for a CTBT-ISS S&T Foresight initiative

The landscape of S&T Foresight methods

Experiences with S&T Roadmapping

Key issues for a CTBT-ISS S&T Foresight initiative

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The global context for CTBT-ISS

Geopolitical shifts E.g. new entrants/exits to the “nuclear club”

International agreements and regulations E.g. early detection of nuclear disasters

Shifts in perception of risks E.g. greater focus on climate change and natural disasters

Financial pressures E.g. budget cuts

Scientific advances E.g. infrasound

Technological advances E.g. IT-based communication and computation advances

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The local context for a CTBTO S&T Foresight

Shift from building up a verification system to operating, maintaining and upgrading it

Emerging needs and opportunities Assess appropriateness of the existing system to meet its

future tasks Continuous monitoring of emerging S&T opportunities Consensus-building on the introduction of novel elements Integration into the existing system Spill-over potential into other problem areas (e.g. natural

disasters)

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The local context for a CTBTO S&T Foresight (2)

Three stakeholder communities to consider Preparatory Comission CTBT-ISS Scientific communities

S&T Foresight as a process-based instrument to deal with emerging needs and opportunities in interaction with stakeholder communities

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Forecasting – Foresight – PlanningWhat is the difference?

Forecasting supposes that there is one possible future, based on extrapolation or projections of past and present trends. Involves only experts. Time horizons commonly 5-10 years.

Foresight assume that there are many futures, and through the mobilisation of interested stakeholders it is feasible to develop a fuller understanding of the forces shaping the long-term future. It uses time horizons of 10-20 years.

Planning is based on theories or doctrines on future developments. Involves only policy makers and experts. Time horizons between 1-5 years.

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Strategic Marketingand Trend Research

Technology ForesightTechnology Foresight(e.g. Delphi-Studies, Technology Monitoring)

Product Impact AssessmentTechnology Assessment(e.g.Offices for technologyassessment)

Scenarios of FutureSocieties(e.g. Political think tanks)

Global Trends(e.g. World Bank,Worldwatch Institute)

StrategicTechnologyMonitoring

Long term perspective

(Conventionalmarket research

StrategicMarket Research

TechnologyMonitoring

Prospective Economic Analyses

CompetitionAnalysis

Short/medium term perspective

Focus on Markets and Business Environments(economic, political, societal, ecological)

= non-technological driving forces

Focus on Technologies

Today + 10 years + 15 years+ 5 years

Innovation and Technology Analysis

Landscape of Future Studies

Source: F. RuffSource: F. Ruff

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Methods & Tools Diagnosis Prescription Qualitative Exploratory

 

 Prognosi

s  Quantitativ

e  Normative   Predictive

Environmental Scanning/Monitoring

XX     X X      

Trend ExtrapolationX XX   X X   X X

Modelling and SimulationX XX   X     X X

Expert Panels  XX X   X X X  

Delphi SurveyX X X X X X XX X

Roadmapping  X X   X XX X X

Critical/Key TechnologiesX X XX X X X   X

Scenario Building  XX     X X X  

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Exploratory approach: what would we expect to happen if this event happens or if that trend develops?

Knowledge about the present

Alternative futures

What if

What if

What if

Normative approach: what to do now to make the „best future“ happen?

Present actions Alternative

futures

What to do

The „best future“

Two basic approaches to Foresight

Source: Keenan/PREST

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Application of the foresight methodology

Establishing a transparent structured decision-making process

Introducing a forward-looking attitude – anticipative intelligence

Provoking a creative and motivating decision making environment

Stimulating a participative approach Enabling mutual learning and strategic dialogue Reaching consensus around shared visions Linking technology and innovation to wider socio-

economic issues Paving the way for coordinated/coherent action

Source: Keenan/PREST

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A STRM is a process tool to help identify the key scientific and technological development that an industry/sector/company/organisation needs to succeed in the future, and the projects/steps required to make these scientific and technological developments available for implementing solutions.

STRMs are developed by a group of collaborators who are knowledgeable about an industry/sector/research field and its relevant scientific and technological developments

STRM can be supported by a range of information gathering (e.g. S&T Monitoring, bibliometric analysis, data mining) and intelligence tools

S&T Roadmapping (STRM) as an option for CTBT-ISS?

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Suppliers Manufacturers

End Users

WHO WHAT/HOW WHY

Phase I

Phase II

Phase III

• Identified market demands

• Identified critical technologies

• Targeted R&D investment

• Reduced market and investment risk

• Partnerships• Enhanced

competitiveness• Influence on

government policy, programs and regulations

• Innovation• Improved knowledge• Productivity Growth• Identified human

resource and skills gaps

Anticipated BenefitsIndustry -led Initiative

Periodic iterationFacilitated by: Industry CanadaPotential Facilitators: Other Departments, Research Organizations, Associations or Consultants

Academia and Research Organizations

Feasibility Resources Analysis

Actions to develop, commercialize and transfer technology

Periodic evaluation, re-thinking, and cultural adoption

A Canadian experience with STRM

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Market / Customers / Competitors /Environment / Industry /

Business / Trends / Drivers / Threats /Objectives / Milestones / Strategy

Products / Services / Applications /Services / Capabilities / Performance /

Features / Components / Families /Processes / Systems / Platforms /

Opportunities / Requirements / Risks

Technology /Competences /

Knowledge

Other resources: Skills / Partnerships / Suppliers /

Facilities / Infrastructure / Organisation /Standards / Science / Finance / R&D Projects

Time

(know-when)

‘purpose’(know-why)

‘delivery’(know-what)

‘resources’(know-how)

Past Now Plans Future Vision

Mar

ket P

ull

Technol

ogy p

ush

Layers connect:

Generic roadmap – links resources to objectives

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10-3

Roadmap for Electronic Devices

101 100 10-1102

104

106

108

Number of chip components

Feature size (microns)

1010

1012

1018

1014

1016

10-2

Classical Age

Historical Trend

SIA Roadmap2010

CMOS

19952000

2005

1970

1980

1990

4oK

Quantum Age

77oK

295oK

Quantum State Switch

Source: Fine, MIT

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Nanotechnology Roadmap – lessons learned:Atomically Precise Technology (APT)

Atomic precision is the guiding vision for nanotechnology. Required for Moore's law progress in 15 year time frame. Required for optimal materials and systems. Current forms have sharply restricted capabilities. Advances will enable expanding applications. APT development requires focused cross-disciplinary

research to develop a body of engineering knowledge for systematic design and improvement of AP nanosystems

Source: Foresight Nanotech Institute

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Nanotechnology roadmap – lessons learned:Atomically Precise Manufacturing (APM)

Essential feature: programmable control of operations. Required for engineering and fabricating complex AP

systems. Scanning probe devices: APM on metals,

semiconductors. Biomolecular machines: APM of polymer objects. Self-assembly: large AP products from smaller ones. Near-term APM promises a growing range of

applications. Advanced APM promises revolutionary applications.

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Issues for a CTBT-ISS S&T Foresight initiative

Establishing the scope and the issue/s to be addressed In need of a scenario-based approach ?

Defining the time horizon Crucial balance between policy relevance and exploratory

character Designing an appropriate foresight process

Definition of the range of stakeholders to engage, and of the approaches to achieve it

Selecting the appropriate foresight tools Drawing on the foresight „toolbox“

Ensuring adequate participation Mobilising the relevant communities is challenging!

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Issues for a CTBT-ISS S&T Foresight initiative

Appropriate guidance and facilitation Professional support is essential for success

Regular updating and integration in CTBT strategy Not just a one-off exercise, but part of a wider learning process

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