A Roadmap to Early Warning Systems for Climate Sensitive ... · moderate La Nina • 2007 malaria...
Transcript of A Roadmap to Early Warning Systems for Climate Sensitive ... · moderate La Nina • 2007 malaria...
Data
20-years data (1996-
2015) of malaria
OPD cases collected
by the National
Malaria Control
Program (NMCP)
through Health
Management
Information System
(HMIS)
A Roadmap to Early Warning Systems for Climate Sensitive Diseases in Tanzania: Demonstrating the Effect of Extreme Climate Events on Malaria Burden
Susan F. Rumisha, PhD1, Frank Chacky, MSc2
1National Institute for Medical Research, P.O. Box 9653, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; 2 National Malaria Control Program, Ministry of Health, Community Development, Gender, Elderly & Children, P.O. Box 9083, Dar es Salaam
NATIONAL
MALARIA
CONTROL
PROGRAMME
Climate sensitive diseases such as malaria are affected
with changes in climatic such as temperature/rainfall.
Certain levels favor production, or compromise survival,
of vectors and hence alter transmission.
This study analyze district level malaria data and the climate
information to study malaria seasonality and demonstrate
contribution of extreme climate events in the disease burden.
Tanzania is among East African countries affected strongly
by the extreme climate event of the El Niño that occurred in
1997/1998. A number of districts experienced malaria
epidemics which were highly associated with the event.
Recently, the Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) launched a new climate service which offers access to over 30 years of gridded
rainfall and temperature data throughout the country. This is the only local climatic data which is well organized, complete and with high
spatial resolution. There is a need of putting efforts to ensure the data is utilized by right people to guide decisions in health sector
The El Niño
impacted the
climate of East
African Region
again in 2015
Seasonality:
Peak malaria
season for
Dodoma and
Iringa is March –
May, while
Babati indicated
a whole year
(holoendemic)
malaria with
slight peak on
Apr-May.Fig 1. Patterns of El Niño and La Niña 1980 -2016
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Pattern of Malaria - Babati District
1995 1996 1997
1998 1999 2000
2001 2002 2003
2004 2005 2006
2007 2013 2014
2015 10yrsaverage
Peak Malaria Season: All Year, slight peak on
Apr-May
• 1997/1998 malaria was above the
average throughout the year; a very
strong El Nino was recorded
• 1999 malaria was high in the first five
months of a year and increased sharply;
a moderate La Nina was recorded
• 1998/1999 malaria was above the
average throughout the year, in these
years there was a moderate La Nina
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Pattern of Malaria - Iringa District
1995 19961997 19981999 20002001 20022003 20042005 20062007 20082009 20102011 20122013 20142015 10yrsaverage
Peak Malaria Season: End of
March-May
Methodology and Findings
Pilot Sites/Districts (Rain)Babati - Northern (Bimodal)
Dodoma - Central (Unimodal)
Iringa - Southern Highlands
(Unimodal)
Analysis
Conducted in the
light of Oceanic Niño
Index (ONI) to detect
prominent patterns
of malaria cases that
might be associated
with El Niño
Southern Oscillation
(El Niño and La
Niña) (Fig. 1).
Babati and Dodoma
experienced malaria
epidemic in 1998/1999,
Iringa did not report
outbreak tthat time
• Malaria cases increased in times of moderate to very strong El Niño/La Niña index levels
• In some instance malaria cases increased during weak index
• Spatial variation of the effect was observed, districts are affected differently
• In all 3 districts, for all the times that index was abnormal, malaria cases went above the
expected range, not only for the peak times but also other months (Fig. 2).
• Dodoma district recorded high cases in almost all occurrences of El Niño and La Niña.
Background and Objective
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Pattern of Malaria Dodoma
1995 19961997 19981999 20002001 20022003 20042005 20062007 20082009 20102011 20122013 20142015 10yrsaverage
Peak Malaria Season: End of
March-May
• 1995 malaria was above average in the first 6
months of the year; a weak La Nina was recorded
• 1998 malaria was above the average the entire
year; a very strong El Nino was recorded
• The first 3 months of 2001 malaria was highly
above the normal range, a strong La Nina
recorded in 1999 and 2000
• The district recorded higher cases of malaria
since August 2015, that time there were already
warning of a Strong El Nino
• 1999/2000 malaria was high in the
entire year, in this year there was a
moderate La Nina
• 2007 malaria was above the
average throughout the year; a
moderate La Nina recorded
Understanding the patterns of climate extreme events can facilitate
establishment of effective early warning systems for outbreaks, and
strengthen the capacity of the system to forecast, respond and
properly manage malaria outbreaks.
Fig 2. Patterns of Malaria indicating high cases than expected
(a-c) and patterns of malaria by zones (d)
Mar, 1997
Mar, …
19992001
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Malaria in Dodoma 1995-2015
1995 1996 19971998 1999 2000
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Conclusion: This pilot analysis indicates that studying patterns of extreme weather events
can be useful to inform the health system and initiate effective response to malaria epidemics.
Full analysis will utilize the high quality climate products from the TMA.
[email protected]; [email protected]
Acknowledgments: The authors appreciate the technical advice from International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University. The National Institute for Medical Research is thanked for logistics and
administrative support. This work received financial support from the World Health Organization under Global Framework for Climate Services Project
What do we see?
Prepared June, 2016