A Review of Waste Needs Assessment for New Waste

Treatment Processes

CIWM Cymru Wales & NW Centres Autumn Event 2010

Overview

• Background – Role & requirements of WNA

• Approach - Case study • Greater Manchester Authorities

• Conclusions

Why do we need WNA?& where does it fit?

Background England

• The Government introduced a new system of preparing development plans under the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004.

• Thus Waste Local Plans are to be replaced with a Local Development Framework, which is to be produced by any authority with responsibility for waste planning (unitary, county councils, sub-regional partnerships Greater Manchester).

• The framework is like a 'folder' containing a collection of waste documents known as Local Development Documents (there are 2 types: Development Plan Documents and Supplementary Planning Documents).

BackgroundUsual documents within the Waste (& Minerals) development framework

include:

• Development Plan Documents covering spatial planning documents which would form the development plan for the area. Usual that this results in a Waste Core Strategy and a Waste Management Development Plan Document.

• Supplementary Planning Documents (which are non statutory documents) which can provide further details on policies and proposals set out in a 'parent' Development Plan Document

• A Statement of Community Involvement explains how the authority plans to involve the community in the preparation of the waste plan

• The Waste Development Scheme sets out the programme for the preparation of the Waste planning documents

• The Annual Monitoring Report provides monitoring data on the progress of the Waste Development Scheme and the performance of policies within any adopted Development Plan Documents

• Proposal maps (to show the policies and proposals for waste plans in authority on an Ordnance Survey base).

AND…………………

Background

AND

• An evidence base of studies, including a Waste Needs Assessment and Sustainability Appraisal which will support the policies and proposals of waste plans

Background Wales

• Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004 (Commencement No. 4 and Consequential, Transitional and Savings Provisions) (Wales) Order 2005

• Unitary plans replaced by “Local Development Plans” (same as England –Welsh Assembly for examination)

• Wales Waste Strategy, The Technical Advice Note (Wales) 21 Waste (TAN 21)1 provides part of the planning guidance and is intended to facilitate the introduction of a comprehensive, integrated and

sustainable land use planning framework for waste management in Wales.

Background Wales

• TAN 21 states that the principal objective of the Regional Waste Plan for each of the three Welsh regions is to set the framework for Unitary Authority Development Plans to be prepared, and as such the Regional Waste Plan may be material to decisions on individual planning applications.

• Within the regional waste plan – “WNA” undertaken to establish waste arisings and capacity

• Wrexham – North Wales Region – “Developing a regional waste plan for the north Wales region, Strategic assessment report, 2002 ≈ “WNA”

WNA

• A credible evidence base is required to provide the basis for the proposed plans and policies.

• Robust & up to date to withstand scrutiny as evidence to support

LDF at an examination

• Support core strategic policy development

WNA

• Needs to be able to support the development of planning policies for waste within the LDF by;• Up to date baseline data on current dynamics of waste

generation/management in authority area for ALL waste streams

• Ability to estimate future waste arisings for each waste stream based on set of agreed forecasting scenarios & agreed targets for recovery/recycling/re-use of waste over set plan period

• Assess existing waste management & disposal capacity including landfill in the authority’s area & estimate future waste management & capacity requirements

Case Study on approach for WNA

Active Model Development

Model Development

Capacity Database

Model Development

Needs Assessment Scenario selectedScenario selected

Capacity Gap

RequiredCapacity

AvailableCapacity

Waste treatmentSelection

Model - graphs

Case StudyAssociation Greater Manchester Authorities• GMGU act for AGMA in waste planning strategy – producing a JWDPDfor 10 LA’s (Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, , Stockport, Tameside, Trafford and Wigan)

Project aims

1. To produce a model able to simulate future waste facility requirements under a range of scenarios. • a clear process for updating baseline data quickly and

cheaply

2. To apply the best currently available baseline data and growth forecasts to the model to estimate future capacity gaps and facilities• include sensitivity analysis of results

Approach

Capacity gap =

Forecast arisings – existing & future planned capacity

1. Assembling and Updating the Baseline Data

2. Forecast model development Anchor in the real economy Reflect uncertainties Allow view of causes of the gap

Shape of the model

GMFMHouseholdsEmployees

Basic forecast modelMSW, C&I tonnages etc to 2025

Survey dataC&I

CD&ETonnages by SIC, SOC & destination

MSW dataTonnages

Waste streamsDestinations

Waste by substanceSubstance by

destination

SensitivitiesWaste generated:

By employeeBy household

Economic growth:On CD&E waste

Capacity data

Scenarios

1. Baseline: baseline• Baseline GMFM and assumes 2006 C&I

management option “proportions” remain constant. MSW targets achieved & PFI facility capacity 2010

2. Baseline: Maximum recycling and recovery• As 1 plus high level of C&I recycling and recovery

3. Baseline: Median recycling and recovery• As 1 plus median C&I recycling and recovery

4-6. As 1-3 but with GMFM Accelerated Growth figures.

Landfill (non-haz) gap – scenarios 1, 2, and 3

-1,500.0

-1,250.0

-1,000.0

-750.0

-500.0

-250.0

-

250.0

500.0

750.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Recycling gap – scenarios 1, 2, and 3

-

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

1,000.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

From capacity gap to facilitiesIndication of number of additional facilities required by 2020

Key to facility types

Scenario 1 Landfill (non-hazardous)

Incineration with Energy Recovery

Composting

Landfill (hazardous)

Landfill (C+D)

Tonnes (000s) 1,270 75 108 surplus Recycling (aggregates, C+D)

Scenario 2

Tonnes (000s) 432 240 108 228

Scenario 3

Tonnes (000s) 613 120 108 228160 735

120 1,619

160 735

Facility need for Greater Manchester

Facility need for Greater Manchester

Facility Need for Greater Manchester

Updated (website)

Conclusions For WNA

• Robust evidence base & statutory requirement LDF process

• Advocate “Live Model” – efficient/effective to undertake updates easy as new data comes available on arisings or new permissions granted for capacity

• Model advantage - Interactive – run many scenarios• Graphs drawn directly – tables – evidence base report

and for presentation to members• Report – easily updated from running model and

traceable data sets and interpretation• Time & effort baseline data - Accuracy related to standard

of baseline data (NW & Wales have benefit of excellent C&I primary data)

• Produce in partnership with stakeholders

“WNA” for Private Sector

• Modelling process equally appropriate to determine need for any new waste treatment/management process

• Support business case for a new facility• Addressing planning issues when planning

application for new site –robust evidence base, demonstrate need & help identify feedstock requirements.

gill.tatum@4resources.co.uk

www.4resources.co.uk

Tel 01254 820507