A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr
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Transcript of A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr
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8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr
1/32
I @OOZE\ FGR]F]U]FOG ERRIV OG \EMUBFGH GUBAEI\ ]@\EI]R
I \egewem Zfsfog
jor Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog
CFB@IEA K. CI[I\\
Jor ̀ iaj i begtury, t`e Ugftem Rtites aem haolia ejjorts to bogtroa gubaeir rfsn fg
t`e bogtext oj ig ibbucuaitfgh set oj fgtergitfogia fgstftutfogs. ]`e aeimfgh postwir
fgstftutfog oj haolia hovergigbe, t`e Ugftem Gitfogs, paemhem sfhgitorfes to booperite
to resoave t`reits to peibe, fgbaumfgh t`e gubaeir mighers fg`eregt fg t`e postwir
eri. ]`e Gog-Troafjeritfog ]reity (GT]) oj 9684 breitem i jriceworn jor bogtroaafgh
t`e spreim oj gubaeir weipogs igm paemhem t`e gubaeir-weipogs stites to t`e hoia oj
mfsircicegt. I `ost oj lfaiteria ihreecegts, fgbaumfgh i serfes oj ibborms letweeg t`e
Ugftem Rtites igm t`e Rovfet Ugfog (igm t`eg \ussfi), aifm t`e jougmitfog jor mricitfb
gubaeir remubtfogs. Ot`er ihreecegts bogstrifgem gubaeir testfgh or provfmem jor
egjorbecegt oj gubaeir siaes igm exports.
It t`e sice tfce, igm fg wiys t`it breitem tegsfog wft` ejjorts to afcft t`e roae
oj gubaeir weipogs, t`e Ugftem Rtites meveaopem gitfogia seburfty mobtrfges igm
mepaoyem gubaeir igm bogvegtfogia jorbes to meter gubaeir wir igm mfsbourihe
proafjeritfog t`rouh` ibtfve cfaftiry t`reits or reissurigbes. Every postwir
UR imcfgfstritfog `is irhuem t`it t`e preservitfog oj i sebure, reafilae gubaeir
meterregt wis essegtfia to bogveyfgh t`e cessihe t`it gubaeir wir biggot lejouh`t. UR extegmem-meterregbe paemhes, igm issobfitem poafbfes sub` is jorwirm
mepaoycegt oj jorbes igm bogvegtfogia cfaftiry siaes, reissurem ney iaafes ihifgst
t`e geem to ibqufre gubaeir weipogs.9
]`e suc oj t`ese ejjorts, is weaa is t`e gituria tiloo ittib`em to t`e use oj gubaeir
weipogs,
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8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr
2/32Cfb`iea K. Cizirr • I \egewem Zfsfog jor Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog
<
eafcfgitfog oj gubaeir weipogs. Jour segfor stitesceg”Heorhe R`uatz, Xfaafic Terry,
@egry Nfssfgher, igm Ric Gugg”lehig i bicpifhg fg
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8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr
3/32@oover Fgstftutfog • Rtigjorm Ugfversfty
2
ig iatergitfve to t`e GT] is t`e begtria eghfge oj haolia gubaeir rfsn remubtfog ejjorts
(w`fae reijrcfgh t`e lisfb paemhes fgvoavem fg t`it treity). Core lroimay, ft ifcs
to worn t`rouh` i hrimuia, fgjorcia serfes oj ihreecegts igm fgftfitfves rit`er t`ig
t`rouh` ex`iustfve igm bocpre`egsfve treitfes. Ft paibes fts ecp`isfs og cuatfaiteria
gubaeir t`reit remubtfog rit`er t`ig og t`e Ugftem Rtites-\ussfi jriceworn. Ft tines
serfousay t`e hoia oj i woram wft`out gubaeir weipogs igm ittecpts to tine ney
steps to aiy t`e hrougmworn jor t`it tfce eveg fg i perfom oj rfsfgh tegsfogs. Ft seens
to fgtehrite rehfogia igm haolia booperitfve seburfty. Ft requfres perfomfb succft
ceetfghs igm mecigms hreiter prforfty jor gubaeir seburfty ceisures. Igm, uatfciteay,
ft fs got is cub` ilout ircs bogtroa per se is ft fs ilout streght`egfgh haolia rehfces
oj booperitfve seburfty fg t`e gubaeir reiac”usfgh gubaeir rfsn remubtfog is i tooa
jor procotfgh haolia booperitfve seburfty.
Hrowfgh Gubaeir Mighers
]`e urhegby oj i gew ihegmi jor gubaeir seburfty stecs fg pirt jroc t`e jibt t`itgubaeir perfas ire rfsfgh ibross t`e loirm. ]`ese perfas righe jroc gubaeir terrorfsc
to aoss oj ssfae citerfia or weipogs bogtroa to rehfogia gubaeir proafjeritfog. ]`e
fcpressfve hifgs fg gubaeir sijety igm seburfty oltifgem fg pirt t`rouh` postwir
fgstftutfogs ire it rfsn. Is ]`e Ebogocfst cihizfge bogbaumem fg Cirb`
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8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr
4/32Cfb`iea K. Cizirr • I \egewem Zfsfog jor Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog
=
buts fg UR tibtfbia gubaeir weipogs ippeir to `ive leeg fgmegfteay s`eavem.94 Lot`
jorcer UR ojbfias igm Europeig hovergcegts ̀ ive suhhestem fg rebegt cogt`s t`it
t`e opportugfty jor tibtfbia gubaeir remubtfogs `is pissem.
It t`e sice tfce, mue to i boclfgitfog oj poaftfbia igm teb`goaohfbia meveaopcegts,
t`e bogsegsus og gogproafjeritfog fs lreinfgh mowg icfm i gew mrfve jor gubaeir
bipilfaftfes ly cigy stites. Tiua Lribneg ̀ is wrftteg oj i ‑sebogm gubaeir ihe–
b`iribterfzem cost jugmicegtiaay ly i core cuatfpoair”igm uatfciteay core
migherous”rehfce oj rehfogia gubaeir bogtests.99 ]`ere ire sfhgias t`it sub` i probess
fs ecerhfgh. Tinfstig fs iareimy ojj igm ruggfgh wft` ig extegsfve comergfzitfog
prohric t`it fs loostfgh t`e sfze igm aet`iafty oj fts gubaeir irsegia.9
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8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr
5/32@oover Fgstftutfog • Rtigjorm Ugfversfty
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stroghay cotfvitem igm t`it ft fs eveg aess ilae to serve is i haolia fgstftutfog jor t`e
bogtroa oj ssfae citerfia. Is oge expert `is bogbaumem, tregms fg gubaeir mfjjusfog
iaoghsfme t`e FIEI‖s mecogstritem weingesses ceig t`it ‑t`e systec oj prevegtfgh
t`e proafjeritfog oj faafbft gubaeir citerfias fs it rfsn oj boaaipse.– ]`e guclers ire
stirn; letweeg 9608 igm core bafgh tfh`tay to gubaeir weipogs
igm iclftfogs> core see gubaeir weipogs is sourbes oj peibe igm stilfafty rit`er t`ig
migher igm bogfbt. Xft`fg t`e Ugftem Rtites, poaftfbia ittftumes ̀ ive s`fjtem iwiy
jroc trust fg, igm support jor, booperitfve seburfty fgstrucegts afne ircs bogtroa
igm towirm ugfaiteria ceisures afne gubaeir comergfzitfog. Ft fs got baeir t`it igy
sfhgfbigt ircs bogtroa treity bouam cine ft t`rouh` t`e UR Regite tomiy.
Jfgiaay, t`e rfsn oj t`e ibqufsftfog igm use oj gubaeir weipogs ly gog-stite ibtors,
espebfiaay terrorfsts, fs per`ips is hreit is ft `is ever leeg. t`e teb`goaohy oj i brume locl fs got
leyogm t`e bipilfafty oj i gog-stite hroup. Meterregbe ̀ is afttae paibe fg prevegtfgh
sub` ittibns, w`fb` cust le meiat wft` t`rouh` megfia oj citerfias or teb`goaohy
or t`e mfsruptfog oj terrorfst hroups.
Jor iaa t`e `eapjua remubtfogs fg guclers oj mepaoyem gubaeir weipogs t`it ̀ ive
tineg paibe, t`erejore, t`e gubaeir pfbture tomiy fs aoonfgh aess stilae igm bo`eregt
t`ig ft mfm twegty yeirs iho. Fg t`e bogtext oj spreimfgh gubaeir bipilfaftfes, jriyfgh
cuatfaiteria bogtroa rehfces, igm persfstegt or hrowfgh rehfogia tegsfogs igm rfviarfes,
t`e potegtfia jor i gew rougm oj proafjeritfog fs very reia. ]`e rfsn oj virfous routes to
gubaeir use”jroc esbiaitfog out oj aower-aevea bogfbts to ibbfmegtia or terrorfst use”
fs hrowfgh, got rebemfgh. ]o protebt t`e seburfty oj iaa aeimfgh powers, i gew ihegmi
jor gubaeir seburfty fs requfrem, oge aem ly t`e Ugftem Rtites w`fae eghihfgh t`e ejjorts
oj ot`er cikor powers.
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8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr
6/32Cfb`iea K. Cizirr • I \egewem Zfsfog jor Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog
:
ney eaecegts oj sebogm-strfne meterregbe, extegmem meterregbe, lfaiteria ircs bogtroa
treitfes, igm cuatfaiteria gogproafjeritfog igm gubaeir seburfty rehfces”ciy le
faa-suftem to ib`feve t`e gebessiry prohress hfveg tregms fg t`e fgtergitfogia systec.
Is t`e woram aeimer fg t`e ircs bogtroa iregi, t`e Ugftem Rtites cust sustifg igm
lufam upog eib` oj t`ese jour eaecegts, lut it t`e sice tfce worn towirm i rejorcem
pirimfhc oj gubaeir seburfty t`it big cine ceisurilae prohress fg settfgh t`e
bogmftfogs jor mfsircicegt.
]`e Orfhfgs oj t`e Burregt Tirimfhc
Murfgh t`e Boam Xir, gubaeir rfsn remubtfog wis pursuem fg i bogtext oj lfaiteria
bocpetftfog letweeg two superpowers it i tfce w`eg postwir fgstftutfogiafzitfog
wis stfaa meepegfgh igm t`e aeimfgh migher wis cikor wir letweeg t`e two lfh
powers. Iat`ouh` ft seecs bougterfgtuftfve, Boam Xir gubaeir seburfty ejjorts reebtem
i powerjua cutuia ugmerstigmfgh oj s`irem fgterests. ]`e bogsegsus toon tfce to
ecerhe, wis jir jroc ugfversia, igm t`reitegem to boaaipse it cigy pofgts. Vet, ly t`eaite 96:4s, Xis`fghtog igm Cosbow `im baeiray rebohgfzem t`e geem to bogtroa gubaeir
mighers igm `im lufat fcportigt fgstftutfogs to ibt og t`fs reiafzitfog”ircs bogtroa
mepirtcegts igm ihegbfes, treitfes, succfts, ]ribn < mfiaohues, reseirb` orhigfzitfogs
mevotem to gubaeir citters. ]`e resuat, ihifg gotwft`stigmfgh cigy mfsputes igm
b`iaaeghes iaogh t`e wiy, wis to gorciafze t`e cutuia support jor gubaeir seburfty
t`rouh` bogmegbe-lufamfgh ceisures, afcfts to potegtfiaay mestilfafzfgh cfssfae
mejegses, igm remubtfogs fg t`e guclers igm, evegtuiaay, iaert aeveas oj gubaeir
irsegias.
]`fs exfstfgh pirimfhc `is leeg airheay ejjebtfve, lut ft ecerhem wft`fg, igm wismesfhgem to ceet t`e bogmftfogs oj, i very spebfb fgtergitfogia ormer. Is t`it ormer
hfves wiy to gew pittergs fg fgtergitfogia poaftfbs, our ugmerstigmfgh oj gubaeir
seburfty cust evoave.
]`e Fgstftutfogs oj Gubaeir Reburfty
]`e Ugftem Rtites igm \ussfi, is weaa is ot`er gubaeir powers, ̀ ive tineg severia
spebfb ivegues to eg`igbfgh gubaeir seburfty, reebtfgh lot` sfmes oj i two-tribn
poafby; gubaeir afcftitfog igm restrifgt og t`e oge ̀ igm igm bremflae meterregbe og
t`e ot`er. ]`ese ceb`igfscs `ive leeg lisem og i strogh segse oj s`irem jite igm
boaaebtfve seburfty igm ̀ ive mecogstrilay ̀ eapem to cifgtifg peibe. ]ohet`er, t`fs
boclfgitfog oj meterregt pribtfbes igm ircs bogtroa icougts to w`it big le biaaem t`e
exfstfgh pirimfhc oj gubaeir seburfty. Over tfce, ft `is hrowg to fgbaume jour aeimfgh
bocpogegts; provfmfgh stritehfb stilfafty t`rouh` meterregbe> extegmfgh t`e meterregt
ejjebt oj gubaeir weipogs to t`e prevegtfog oj ot`er jorcs oj bogfbt> bogtroaafgh
t`e guclers, strubtures, igm iaert rites oj gubaeir jorbes ly ceigs oj metifaem
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8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr
7/32@oover Fgstftutfog • Rtigjorm Ugfversfty
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lfaiteria treitfes> igm bogstrifgfgh t`e spreim oj gubaeir weipogs igm ibbess to t`efr
bocpogegts t`rouh` ex`iustfve cuatfaiteria ihreecegts.
]`e lemrobn fgstftutfog oj gubaeir seburfty `is leeg t`e `ilft igm pribtfbe oj stritehfb
meterregbe, prfcirfay letweeg t`e Ugftem Rtites igm t`e Rovfet Ugfog (igm t`eg
\ussfi).
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8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr
8/32Cfb`iea K. Cizirr • I \egewem Zfsfog jor Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog
0
i gucler oj wiys, jroc prevegtfgh out-oj-bogtroa ircs ribes to afcftfgh t`e cost
mestilfafzfgh types oj weipogs. Ter`ips t`e cost sfhgfbigt ejjebt oj t`e treity probess
`is leeg to segm i baeir sfhgia t`it lot` sfmes were boccfttem to ivofmfgh uglrfmaem
gubaeir bocpetftfog igm vfewem t`efr fgterests is lefgh servem ly boaailoritfve
ircs bogtroa. ]`e cere probess oj mfiaohue igm gehotfitfogs ̀ eapem joster i gorc oj
booperitfve seburfty w`ose `ilfts igm probesses oj bogsuatitfog previfaem eveg murfgh
tegse perfoms oj Boam Xir `ostfafty.
Bogmegbe-lufamfgh igm brfsfs-cigihecegt systecs, teb`gfques, igm ihreecegts ̀ ive
servem is ig fcportigt pirt oj t`fs UR-\ussfig ejjort. Exicpaes oj sub` bogmegbe-
lufamfgh ceisures fgbaume ihreecegts igm boccftcegts provfmfgh trigspiregby,
requfrfgh prfor gotfbitfog oj exerbfses, igm ojjerfgh vegues jor rehuair or brfsfs
boccugfbitfogs.
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8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr
9/32@oover Fgstftutfog • Rtigjorm Ugfversfty
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t`rouh` t`e bipilfafty igm reafilfafty oj gubaeir irsegias igm mobtrfges”prohrics to
eg`igbe meterregbe ly neepfgh weipogs sebure igm powerjua. ]`e ot`er tribn bogsfsts
oj ejjorts to remube, bogstrifg, or eafcfgite w`oae bitehorfes oj sub` weipogs”
ircs bogtroa probesses igm ihreecegts. ]`e boclfgitfog oj t`ese two socew`it
bogtrimfbtory tribns icougtem to i pirimoxfbia ihegmi, regfgh igm eailoritfgh
gubaeir bipilfaftfes eveg is lot` sfmes souh`t to afcft igm uatfciteay eafcfgite t`ec.
Lut t`e two-sfmem ipproib` reebtem i ney ispebt oj woram poaftfbs; i liaigbe letweeg
rfviary igm s`irem fgterests. Cost fcportigt, lroimay speinfgh, fs t`it ft wornem.
Lut oge rfsn oj sub` ig ipproib` wis iawiys t`it t`e two tribns wouam evegtuiaay
boaafme fg jugmicegtia wiys. Trohrics to refgjorbe meterregbe bouam mfsbremft ircs
bogtroa ceisures, igm pooray mesfhgem rfsn remubtfog ceisures bouam ugmercfge
meterregbe. Ig ilsoaute go-rst-use paemhe, jor exicpae, wouam irhuilay `ive `eapem
fsoaite t`e roae oj gubaeir weipogs”lut wouam iaso `ive bocpafbitem extegmem
meterregbe igm possflay bogtrflutem to proafjeritfog. Cost Boam Xir gubaeir melites
were ilout t`fs bais` oj fcperitfves, fg oge wiy or igot`er, igm t`e subbess oj t`e
gubaeir seburfty pirimfhc reebtem is cub` is igyt`fgh ease i wfaafghgess igm
ipprebfitfog og lot` sfmes to eghihe fg i reburregt, baever `ircogfzfgh oj t`e two
`iaves oj t`e ipproib`. Lut sub` i tegtitfve, oghofgh equfaflrfuc bouam ogay le
cifgtifgem lebiuse oj i cutuia ipprebfitfog oj t`e mighers fg Xis`fghtog igm
Cosbow igm i kofgt boccftcegt to t`e subbess oj t`e pirimfhc. ]regms fg woram
poaftfbs tomiy t`reiteg to ugmercfge t`e stritehfb igm poaftfbia lisfs jor t`fs
cutuia ugmerstigmfgh, t`us breitfgh bogmftfogs ugmer w`fb` t`e `fh`-wfre ibt
oj liaigbfgh ibtfve meterregbe igm ircs remubtfogs wfaa leboce ugsustifgilae.
]`e Ziaue oj Fgstftutfogs
]o ipprebfite t`efr b`iribter igm viaue, ft fs fcportigt to see t`e fgstftutfogs oj t`e
exfstfgh pirimfhc oj gubaeir seburfty fg t`e bogtext oj airher postwir meveaopcegts.
Fg fts reafigbe og boaaebtfve seburfty fgstftutfogs to preserve peibe, t`e gubaeir
rfsn remubtfog ihegmi `is reebtem i tregm oj haolia fgstftutfogiafzitfog t`it `is
ittecptem, w`ere possflae, to lufam boccugftfes oj s`irem fgterests to procote
cutuia seburfty.
]`ere fs i tegmegby to t`fgn oj fgtergitfogia fgstftutfogs is sygogycous wft`
orhigfzitfogs. ]o le sure, cigy ney eaecegts oj t`e postwir ormer ̀ ivetineg orhigfzitfogia jorc, jroc t`e Ugftem Gitfogs to t`e Fgtergitfogia Cogetiry
Jugm to rehfogia hroups igm iaafigbes afne t`e Europeig Ugfog igm GI]O. Lut fg
t`e piraigbe oj poaftfbia sbfegbe, t`e terc ‑fgstftutfogs– rejers to i cub` lroimer
bogbept”i set oj expafbft or fcpafbft ‑prfgbfpaes, gorcs, ruaes, igm mebfsfog-cinfgh
probemures irougm w`fb` ibtors‖ expebtitfogs bogverhe fg i hfveg fssue-irei.–
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8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr
10/32Cfb`iea K. Cizirr • I \egewem Zfsfog jor Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog
94
oj stites igm aeimers fg fgtergitfogia poaftfbs igm `eap s`ipe mebfsfogs igm le`ivfor.
Exicpaes fgbaume t`e jougmitfogia prfgbfpaes oj stite soverefhgty, t`e spebfb gorc oj
mfpaocitfb fccugfty, virfous gigbfia pribtfbes igm trime rehuaitfogs t`it ugmerafe
t`e haolia lignfgh igm gigbfia systec, ihreecegts og stigmirms igm pribtfbes fg
teb`gfbia eams, igm t`e rfsfgh tiloo ihifgst ugprovonem fgvisfogs t`it `is leeg
tercem t`e terrftorfia fgtehrfty gorc.24
]`ere fs i cissfve afteriture og fgstftutfogs igm i afveay melite ilout t`e mehree to
w`fb` t`ey `ive leeg or big le ejjebtfve fg bogstrifgfgh stite le`ivfor.29 ]`e ivifailae
evfmegbe, it aeist fg t`e gubaeir reiac, pofgts to i quiafem lut stfaa fcportigt
`ypot`esfs; t`it ecerhfgh fgstftutfogs `ive leeg fcportigt fg bogstrifgfgh stite le`ivfor
igm provfmfgh ceb`igfscs jor boormfgitem ibtfog w`eg stites rebohgfze s`irem fgterests.
Fgstftutfogs big breite expebtitfogs, jorucs, igm aogh-terc pribtfbes t`it persuime
stites igm gog-stite ibtors t`it t`efr fgterests ire lest servem t`rouh` kofgt igm
bogstrifgem ibtfog rit`er t`ig ugfaiteria igm ihhressfve seburfty-seenfgh. ]o t`e extegt
t`it stites fgtergiafze t`ese aessogs, t`ey wfaa turg to fgstftutfogs jor egtfreay seas`
reisogs”to procote t`efr owg seburfty”lut mo so fg wiys t`it imcft t`e geem to
orhigfze jor seburfty fg i booperitfve jis`fog. Fgstftutfogs provfme opportugftfes
to boormfgite fgterests, resoave bogfbts w`eg boormfgitfog jifas, igm fgfbt
pugfs`cegts jor ibtors w`o vfoaite ecerhfgh gorcs fg laitigt igm olvfous wiys.
]`ere ire cigy exicpaes oj t`fs mygicfb it worn, igm t`ey imm up to persuisfve
evfmegbe t`it postwir fgstftutfogs `ive paiyem i sulstigtfia roae fg bogstrifgfgh
igm b`iggeafgh le`ivfor igm provfmfgh t`e lisfs jor boaaebtfve ibtfog. Exicpaes
righe jroc fgtergitfogia trime ibborms igm gigbfia igm lignfgh stigmirms to
fgtergitfogia stigmirms fg i mozeg teb`gfbia igm sbfegtfb eams2
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8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr
11/32@oover Fgstftutfog • Rtigjorm Ugfversfty
99
Iaa oj t`ese jugbtfogs ire og mfspaiy fg t`e fgstftutfogs oj gubaeir seburfty,
fgbaumfgh t`e cifgtegigbe oj gubaeir meterregbe is weaa is t`e lfaiteria ibborms igm
ugmerstigmfghs t`it ̀ ive irfseg letweeg Xis`fghtog igm Cosbow igm t`e sulsequegt
cuatfaiteria jorcs. Cikor wir ̀ is leeg nept out oj t`e reiac oj pribtfbia bogsfmeritfog
ly t`e rfsn oj gubaeir esbiaitfog igm t`e preservitfog oj sebogm-strfne stilfafty. ]`fs
reebts t`e sort oj ‑utfafty jugbtfog comfbitfog– rejerrem to ilove; gubaeir weipogs
igm t`efr issobfitem meterregt sb`eces ̀ ive bogstrifgem t`e wir-cinfgh optfogs
ivifailae to stites igm aeimers. It t`e sice tfce, t`e gorc oj gubaeir remubtfog igm
evegtuia mfsircicegt ̀ is leeg breitem igm imvigbem t`rouh` stitecegts, treitfes,
igm pribtfbes. ]`e Ugftem Rtites igm \ussfi, igm fgbreisfghay ot`er stites, ̀ ive leeg
mriwg fgto boaailoritfve probesses to eg`igbe gubaeir seburfty> soce eaecegts oj
t`e exfstfgh pirimfhc `ive provfmem riaayfgh pofgts jor mocestfb fgterests fg virfous
bougtrfes metercfgem to remube gubaeir mighers. Igm t`e fgstftutfogs ̀ ive procotem
‑gubaeir aeirgfgh– t`it `is `eapem to estilafs` t`e mighers oj gubaeir citerfia igm
weipogs igm breitem i haolia gorc oj rfsn remubtfog.
Fg t`ese igm ot`er wiys, t`e exfstfgh roster oj gubaeir rfsn remubtfog egmeivors `is
iaterem t`e bogtext oj fgtergitfogia poaftfbs igm `eapem to preserve gubaeir peibe. Fg
so mofgh, fgstftutfogs oj gubaeir seburfty paiyem ig fcportigt sebogmiry jugbtfog
oj bogtrflutfgh to t`e airher probess oj postwir fgstftutfogiafzitfog t`it ̀ is paigtem
t`e tegtitfve seems oj i core bocpaete igm rolust haolia sobfety. ]`e hreit migher
tomiy fs t`it powerjua tregms fg woram poaftfbs t`reiteg to reverse t`fs prohress ly
paibfgh it rfsn t`e fguegbe, bremflfafty, igm aehftfciby oj t`e fgstftutfogs oj t`e
burregt gubaeir pirimfhc.
I Rystec fg Terfa
]omiy, t`ose w`o wouam procote gubaeir seburfty jibe i two-pirt b`iaaeghe. ]`e rst
fs t`it tregms fg t`e fgtergitfogia systec ire wornfgh to ugmercfge t`e fgstftutfogs
oj gubaeir seburfty so pifgstinfghay erebtem over t`e aist `iaj-begtury. Igm t`e sebogm
fs t`it cereay pus`fgh libn og t`fs migher wft`fg t`e jriceworn oj t`e burregt
pirimfhc fs got afneay to worn. Lebiuse oj soce oj t`ose sice tregms, t`e essegtfia
tooas fg t`e tooalox oj gubaeir seburfty wfaa `ive to le reprforftfzem igm, fg soce
bises, repaibem outrfh`t.
Ecerhfgh ]regms fg Xoram Toaftfbs
Zirfous tregms ire wornfgh to jis`fog i gew fgtergitfogia ormer out oj t`e post-
Boam Xir perfom oj UR `ehecogy. ]ineg tohet`er t`ey pofgt to i sfghae overrfmfgh
migher; t`it t`e fgbocpaete lut lroimay ihreem gorcs igm fgstftutfogs oj t`e postwir
systec bouam boaaipse fgto rufgous mfsormer igm bogfbt.20 Fg i powerjua rebegt essiy,
Bougbfa og Jorefhg \eaitfogs Tresfmegt \fb`irm @iiss `is tercem t`fs tregm ‑t`e
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8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr
12/32Cfb`iea K. Cizirr • I \egewem Zfsfog jor Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog
9<
ugriveafgh.– @iiss irhues t`it ‑t`e liaigbe letweeg ormer igm mfsormer fs s`fjtfgh
towirm t`e aitter.–26 ]`e fgtergitfogia systec seecs to ̀ ive reib`em i tfppfgh pofgt,
wft` cigy jibtors t`reitegfgh to ugmercfge s`irem fgterests igm gorcs igm hegerite
i cub` core b`iotfb hegeriafzem rfviary.=4
]`ese mighers ire ecerhfgh ihifgst i core `opejua aogh-terc libnmrop oj meepegfgh
fgtermepegmegbfes igm s`irem fgterests bourtesy oj haoliafzitfog igm reaitem tregms.
Tirt oj t`e jorbe le`fgm t`e hrowfgh fgstftutfogiafzitfog oj woram poaftfbs `is leeg
t`e ecerhegbe oj eaecegts oj i true fgtergitfogia sobfety is stites igm peopaes ire
afgnem core baoseay ly trime, fgjorcitfog, trivea, igm iwiregess. ]`fs getworn oj
fgtermepegmegbe ̀ is b`ighem t`e bogtext jor stite biabuaitfog oj fgterests igm ̀ is
sulstigtfiaay comfem t`e wiys fg w`fb` hreit powers bouam eghihe fg rfviary.
Fgstftutfogs oj gubaeir seburfty `ive lufat og t`fs lroim reiafty”lut t`e prohress
oj haoliafzitfog igm issobfitem bogbepts oj s`irem fgterests fs gow t`reitegem ly
i gucler oj powerjua mestilfafzfgh tregms.
Irhuilay t`e cost jugmicegtia ecerhfgh reiafty fs t`e lurheogfgh iclftfogs igm
bocpetftfve fgstfgbts og t`e pirt oj cigy aeimfgh stites. \ussfi igm B`fgi ire t`e
cost olvfous, lut cigy rehfogia powers ire mecigmfgh t`efr rfh`tjua paibe fg i post-
`ehecogfb ormer. ]urney, Lrizfa, Frig, eveg Kipig igm Hercigy ire seenfgh core
fguegtfia rehfogia roaes, igm fg soce bises”espebfiaay t`ose oj \ussfi igm B`fgi”
iclftfogs ire lefgh expressem fg ihhressfve, eveg imvegturfstfb, wiys. ]`e resuat fs ig
eri oj meepay fgtegsfjyfgh cuatfaiteria rfviary.=9 ]`fs tregm rfsns boaafsfogs lot` haolia
(t`e Ugftem Rtites versus B`fgi) igm rehfogia (i perfom oj regewem fgtegse bocpetftfog
letweeg Fgmfi igm Tinfstig).=
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8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr
13/32@oover Fgstftutfog • Rtigjorm Ugfversfty
92
lefgh jortfem ly boaaebtfve fgstftutfogs. Fg cigy bises t`ey rejuse to le mfrebtem ly
stites igm mrfve bogfbts to `fh`er aeveas oj tegsfog igm vfoaegbe. I aeimfgh exicpae
tomiy fs t`e overaippfgh boaaebtfog oj rimfbia hroups lisem fg Tinfstig w`fb` `ive
lehug to spfg out oj bogtroa oj t`e stite igm w`fb`”fg issiuats afne t`e hruesoce
Cuclif operitfog oj
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8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr
14/32Cfb`iea K. Cizirr • I \egewem Zfsfog jor Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog
9=
rfsfgh stite-to-stite tegsfogs. Fmegtfty-seenfgh fg paibes afne \ussfi igm B`fgi fs
exiberlitfgh t`efr ihhressfve, hrfevigbe-jueaem urhe to b`iaaeghe t`e UR-aem woram
ormer. ]`e sourbes oj tegsfog, jrihcegtitfog, igm b`ios fg t`e fgtergitfogia systec ire
lebocfgh core potegt igm ire fgtersebtfgh fg migherous wiys. Is i resuat, ‑stritehfb
fgstilfafty fs egmecfb– to t`e ecerhfgh systec, B. Miae Xiatog igm Boafg Hriy irhue
fg i
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8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr
15/32@oover Fgstftutfog • Rtigjorm Ugfversfty
95
]`e ecerhfgh eri t`reitegs to ugmercfge eib` oj t`ese b`iribterfstfbs fg turg,
breitfgh t`e geem jor i gew ihegmi jor gubaeir seburfty.
• Lurheogfgh rfviary ugmercfges trust igm igy segse oj s`irem fgterests igm breites
hrowfgh seburfty jeirs t`it procote rit`er t`ig remube t`e perbefvem viaues oj gubaeir
weipogs. X`et`er fg t`e bogtext oj UR or iaafem reaitfogs wft` \ussfi or B`fgi,
Fgmfi-Tinfstig reaitfogs, or ot`er reaitfogs`fps, t`e rfviary igm bocpetftfog
b`iribterfstfb oj t`e ecerhfgh eri ire ugmercfgfgh t`e potegtfia jor booperitfve
seburfty fgstftutfogs. Oge lisfb t`ece oj t`e burregt pirimfhc `is leeg t`it,
gotwft`stigmfgh ejjorts to neep irsegias comerg igm reafilae, gubaeir weipogs
wouam le hrimuiaay meviauem igm t`efr potegtfia use seeg is faaehftfcite ugmer
iacost igy bfrbucstigbe. ]`fs ittftume seecs to le aosfgh `oam oj ney stites.
• Hrowfgh tegsfogs bocpafbite extegmem meterregbe igm fgbreise t`e mecigms og UR
bremflfafty, t`us exiberlitfgh t`e tegsfogs letweeg gubaeir prepiremgess igm
gubaeir lufam-mowg. ]`e tibft lirhifg oj t`e Boam Xir”
gubaeir comergfzitfog
iaoghsfme ircs bogtroa”fs ugafneay to le ibbeptem fg t`e sice wiy fg ig eri
w`eg cfstrust igm bogspfriby t`eorfes mocfgite t`e perbeptfogs oj soce ney
stites. Comergfzitfog ejjorts ire afneay to le seeg is fgbreisfghay t`reitegfgh,
rfsnfgh i cuatfpoair haolia ircs ribe.
• Gitfogiafstfb fmegtfty-seenfgh ugmercfges t`e bogtext jor gubaeir stilfafty. Ft big `ive
t`fs ejjebt fg i gucler oj wiys; ly aeimfgh stites to hrfp gubaeir weipogs core
tfh`tay> ly remubfgh t`e wfaafghgess to ihree to fgtrusfve verfbitfog ceisures>
igm ly biaafgh fgto questfog t`e ritfogiafst issucptfogs oj baissfbia meterregbe
t`eory.
• I cuatfaiteria bogtext cines gubaeir lirhifgs cub` core bocpaex. Gubaeir rfsn
remubtfog `is iareimy irrfvem it i stihe w`ere juture ibborms wfaa `ive to eghihe
cigy stites, igm t`e wfamay viryfgh fgterests igm sourbes oj mesfre jor gubaeir
weipogs wfaa cine jor i core b`irhem igm b`iaaeghfgh rfsn remubtfog probess. Is
ig exicpae, t`e gubaeir rfviary letweeg Fgmfi igm Tinfstig fs jir aess bogstrifgem
or sulkebt to rehuair fgteribtfog igm gehotfitfogs t`ig wis t`e UR-Rovfet gubaeir
reaitfogs`fp. Fg t`e ceigtfce, t`e bore lirhifg it t`e `eirt oj t`e GT]”i
mfvfsfog letweeg gubaeir ̀ ives igm ̀ ive-gots wft` t`e procfse oj gubaeir power
to t`ose w`o esb`ew weipogs”ciy le ugtegilae fg i woram oj i mozeg or core
stites t`it bogsfmer t`ecseaves aeimfgh powers. Core igm core, t`e ‑t`ree pfaairs–
oj t`e GT] ipproib` ire seeg to le cutuiaay bigbeaafgh rit`er t`ig refgjorbfgh.=:
• Gogtrimftfogia bogfbt fs laurrfgh t`e afges letweeg peibe igm wir igm ugmercfgfgh
t`e esbiaitory relreins oj t`e gubaeir eri. Fg breitfgh i geir-perpetuia jorc oj
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8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr
16/32Cfb`iea K. Cizirr • I \egewem Zfsfog jor Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog
9:
oghofgh bogfbt, t`ese teb`gfques ire iaterfgh t`e egvfrogcegt jor gubaeir
meterregbe. ]`e powerjua meterregt bipibfty oj gubaeir weipogs wfaa got”is we
iareimy see”prevegt stites jroc eghihfgh fg t`ese hriy-irei bogfbts, lebiuse
t`ey leafeve t`e esbiaitory rfsns ire ugmer bogtroa. Is Lribneg recfgms us,
coreover, gogtrimftfogia jorcs oj ihhressfog big ecpaoy iclfhuous, afcftem
gubaeir t`reits it t`e aow egm oj t`e esbiaitfog spebtruc”
iggougbfgh i gubaeir
iaert, lreinfgh ig ircs bogtroa treity, seaafgh migherous gubaeir teb`goaohfes.=8
]`e mfvfmfgh afge letweeg stritehfb bogfbt igm gogstritehfb bogfbt fs lebocfgh
laurrem, wft` hreit esbiaitory potegtfia.
• ]`e hrowfgh roae oj gog-stite ibtors fs bocpafbitfgh t`e pfbture jor meterregbe igm
rfsn remubtfog. ]`e exfstfgh gubaeir pirimfhc ecerhem murfgh i perfom w`eg
gitfog-stites were ly jir t`e mocfgigt ibtors og t`e fgtergitfogia sbege. Gog-
stite ibtors ̀ ive aogh leeg bitiaysts oj ̀ fstory, is wft` t`e Rerlfig gitfogiafst
orhigfzitfogs t`it orhigfzem t`e ississfgitfog oj Irb`mune Jrigz Jermfgigm. Lut
t`e reaitfve liaigbe fg power, fguegbe, igm mebfsfve iut`orfty to s`ipe evegts
fs s`fjtfgh, wft` stites aosfgh core power iaa t`e tfce. ]`fs bocpafbitem gew
aigmsbipe cines t`e roae oj gubaeir meterregbe cub` core b`igby; gog-stite
ibtors hegeriaay mo got see ft is i bremflae t`reit.
]`e suc totia oj t`ese ejjebts fs to biaa fgto questfog t`e ilfafty oj exfstfgh gubaeir
seburfty rehfces to preserve gubaeir seburfty or eveg cifgtifg t`e gubaeir tiloo,
irhuilay t`e cost prebfous ibbocpafs`cegt oj t`e postwir eri. UR-\ussfig ircs
bogtroa, jor exicpae, fs stiaaem, igm afneay to recifg so jor t`e fgmegfte juture.
]`e ‑ojbfia– ircs bogtroa systec, Lribneg pofgts out, ‑fs gow so bocpaex t`it ft fs
mfjbuat to ibbocpafs` gew hoias, or to tine ircs bogtroa to t`e gext aevea.–=0 Jor i
virfety oj reisogs”cost jugmicegtiaay \ussfi‖s baose ittib`cegt to t`e meterregt
viaue oj fts gubaeir irsegia igm t`e hegeriaay cfserilae stite oj UR-\ussfig reaitfogs”
`opes jor immftfogia jorcia or fgjorcia cutuia remubtfogs `ive leeg mis`em igm
exfstfgh treitfes ire fg keopirmy.
It t`e sice tfce, tregms fg t`e UR mocestfb bogtext potegtfiaay exiberlite t`ese
lirrfers to gubaeir rfsn remubtfog. Rupport jor cuatfaiteria fgstftutfogs `is irhuilay `ft
i post-Boam Xir aow. Ruspfbfogs oj ot`er cikor powers, espebfiaay B`fgi igm \ussfi,
ire hrowfgh ripfmay igm support jor ircs bogtroa ceisures oj igy nfgm `is wigem.
]`e post-Boam Xir `ogeycoog oj booperitfve seburfty `is hfveg wiy to i perbeptfog
oj i cub` core bocpetftfve igm ̀ ostfae eri, igm igy presfmegt wfaa `ive i cub` core
mfjbuat tfce pus`fgh t`rouh` gew boaailoritfve ceisures. ]`e ecp`isfs fs og gubaeir
comergfzitfog is t`e route to eg`igbem seburfty, igm core stites ire rejerrfgh bisuiaay
to aowerem t`res`oams jor gubaeir use.
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8/21/2019 A Renewed Vision for Nuclear Risk Reduction, by Michael J. Mazarr
17/32@oover Fgstftutfog • Rtigjorm Ugfversfty
98
Ter`ips t`e sfghae cost fcportigt fgsfh`t fg t`e bogstrubtfog oj i gew ihegmi to
bogtroa gubaeir rfsns fs t`it t`e igswer to t`ese ecerhfgh mighers moes got sfcpay
afe fg pourfgh core juea fgto exfstfgh ceb`igfscs jor gubaeir seburfty.=6 Lfaiteria
treitfes ire i poaftfbia gog-stirter, igm \ussfi fs ugfgterestem fg ihreecegts t`it
wouam bogstrifg fts gubaeir meterregt. Cereay reijrcfgh t`e viaue oj t`e essegtfia
lirhifg resfmegt fg t`e GT] wfaa got persuime i hrowfgh b`orus oj vofbes sneptfbia
oj t`e treity‖s baifc t`it gubaeir restrifgt recifgs t`e lest optfog. Lut it t`e sice
tfce, loostfgh fgvestcegts fg comergfzem meterregt jorbes, fj ugmertineg outsfme
t`e bogtext oj strogh fgstftutfogs jor boaaebtfve ipproib`es to gubaeir seburfty, wfaa
le core afneay to provone gew tegsfogs t`ig to refgjorbe meterregbe> igm loasterfgh
extegmem meterregbe wfaa got `ive t`e mesfrem ejjebt fg ig eri oj gitfogiafst pissfog
igm brfsfs-provonfgh ly gog-stite ibtors.
]regms fg t`e fgtergitfogia systec ire ugmercfgfgh eib` oj t`e jour lisfb eaecegts
oj t`e burregt pirimfhc oj gubaeir seburfty; stritehfb stilfafty t`rouh` ejjebtfve
meterregbe> extegmem meterregbe> lfaiteria treitfes igm bogstrifgts> igm jorcia
cuatfaiteria ihreecegts. Goge ippeirs to ojjer i jeisflae, poaftfbiaay procfsfgh route
jorwirm to remube gubaeir mighers. Biaas jor t`e eafcfgitfog oj gubaeir weipogs,
or eveg t`efr mristfb remubtfog fg guclers or iaert aeveas, cust bogjrogt t`fs
ugbocjortilae jibt; t`e trimftfogia routes to t`ese hoias ire airheay laobnem ojj, igm
afneay to recifg so jor soce tfce to boce. ]`e questfog gow fs w`it revfsem ihegmi
jor gubaeir seburfty bouam opeg up gew ivegues to prohress fg t`e cemfuc terc
eveg hfveg t`e bogstrifgts oj t`e ecerhfgh fgtergitfogia egvfrogcegt.
I Gew Ihegmi jor Gubaeir Reburfty
]`e tisn lejore us fs t`erejore baeir, fj strewg wft` mfaeccis. Hfveg t`e potegtfia jor
rfsfgh mighers fg t`e eam oj gubaeir seburfty, t`e Ugftem Rtites cust meveaop igm aeim
i gew ejjort to remube gubaeir rfsns, lut oge t`it sulstigtfiaay comfes t`e exfstfgh
pirimfhc. ]`e gew prohric cust seen lot` to bogtroa s`ort-terc gubaeir mighers
t`it ippeir to le hrowfgh sulstigtfiaay igm to aiy t`e aogh-terc jougmitfogs jor meep
remubtfogs igm evegtuia iloaftfog. Igm ft cust mo t`fs fg i poaftfbia bafcite t`it fs
core `ostfae to gubaeir ircs bogtroa t`ig it igy tfce sfgbe t`e egm oj t`e Boam Xir”
igm, fgmeem, sfgbe t`e cfm-9604s.
Fg ormer to recifg jeisflae igm reaevigt to t`e seburfty b`iaaeghes oj t`e eri mesbrflemilove, i gew ipproib` wouam ippeir to requfre severia b`iribterfstfbs. Ft cust jobus
og gog-stite t`reits is cub` is stite irsegias, fg ormer to meia wft` t`e aeimfgh
perbefvem t`reits oj citerfia bogtroa igm terrorfst use. Ft cust le bipilae oj persuimfgh
fgbreisfghay boclitfve rfvias to booperite og baeiray s`irem fgterests rit`er t`ig
lefgh lisem og i segse oj trust igm kofgt breitfog oj ig ihreem juture. Ft cust iaso
rest outsfme t`e jriceworn oj ex`iustfve lfaiteria or cuatfaiteria treitfes, w`fb` ire
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18/32Cfb`iea K. Cizirr • I \egewem Zfsfog jor Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog
90
ugafneay to le fg t`e birms jor soce tfce. Igm giaay, igy gew fgftfitfve s`ouam ifc it
i lroim bogbept oj stritehfb stilfafty, i core ̀ oafstfb gotfog t`ig sebogm-strfne stilfafty
t`it egbocpisses iaa t`e wiys fg w`fb` stites bouam boce to wir”i vfsfog t`it tines
gubaeir weipogs is sycptocitfb oj, got respogsflae jor, ugmerayfgh tegsfogs.54 ]`e
Ugftem Rtites tomiy proposes to spegm `ugmrems oj lfaafogs oj moaairs to reviafmite w`it
fs essegtfiaay i very afcftem megftfog oj sebogm-strfne stilfafty.59 Lut ft fs got baeir t`it
igy stites stfaa `ive ig fgterest fg t`it jorc oj gubaeir stilfafty, or t`it t`e juaa sbope
oj t`ese fgvestcegts fs geemem to reviafmite ft.
]o ceet t`ese brfterfi igm remube gubaeir mighers, t`fs report imvobites i two-
proghem gubaeir fgftfitfve jor t`e gext ve yeirs t`it lufams og exfstfgh ihreecegts
igm probesses. ]`e stritehy `is i s`ort-terc igm i cemfuc-terc bocpogegt. Fg t`e
s`ort terc, rebohgfzfgh t`e espebfiaay sfhgfbigt mighers oj heopoaftfbia `ostfafty
igm regewem gubaeir bocpetftfog irfsfgh letweeg t`e Ugftem Rtites igm \ussfi lut
iaso bohgfzigt t`it t`e lfaiteria b`iggea fs socew`it stiaaem, ft ifcs to cftfhite
potegtfia gubaeir cfsbiabuaitfog wft` ig fgjorcia serfes oj mfiaohues icogh iaa
estilafs`em gubaeir powers to remube aiugb`-og-wirgfgh rfsns is weaa is to soafmfjy
bogmegbe-lufamfgh igm brfsfs-respogse probemures. Fg t`e cemfuc terc, ft proposes
i regewem igm comfem ejjort to bogtroa mighers oj gubaeir spreim igm gog-stite
use t`rouh` t`e trigspiregby igm bogtroa oj ssfae citerfias.
]`e R`ort ]erc; Lufamfgh Bogjfmegbe igm Ivofmfgh Cfsbiabuaitfog
Roce oj t`e cost sfhgfbigt rfsns fg t`e burregt stritehfb bogtext reaite to potegtfia
esbiaitfog igm bogfbt t`rouh` cfsbiabuaitfog it i tfce oj rfsfgh tegsfogs igm
bocpetftfog. (]`fs fs got t`e sice is t`e rfsn oj pureay ibbfmegtia or ugiut`orfzemaiugb`, w`fb` recifgs reaitfveay aow eveg hfveg rfsfgh tegsfogs.) Is we `ive seeg, t`e
fgbegtfves to ivofm wir recifg very `fh`> airhe-sbiae bogfbt bocfgh ilout t`rouh`
bogsbfous biabuaitfog recifgs very ugafneay. Lut t`rouh` i boclfgitfog oj hegeriafzem
rfviary, t`e exiberlitfgh fguegbe oj gitfogiafsc, igm t`e esbiaitory ejjebt oj hriy-irei
bogfbt, t`e migher oj ig ugfgtegtfogia esbiaitfog fgto gubaeir use fs per`ips hreiter
tomiy t`ig it igy tfce sfgbe t`e cfm-9604s. Ibbormfgh to i virfety oj opeg sourbe
ibbougts, UR igm \ussfig gubaeir irsegias recifg it `fh` aeveas oj aiugb` reimfgess,
igm t`e potegtfia jor wir t`rouh` esbiaitfog or cfsperbeptfog recifgs reia.5
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96
to virfous gubaeir fssues. ]`ey bogmubt extegsfve verfbitfog probesses ittegmigt to
t`e stritehfb ircs remubtfog treitfes fg jorbe. ]`e Booperitfve ]`reit \emubtfog
prohric provfmem t`e lisfs jor mfiaohues, gotfbitfogs oj cfssfae aiugb`es, fgjorcitfog
exb`ighe, igm fgspebtfogs og gubaeir fssues. Over t`e yeirs, virfous `otafges, kofgt rfsn
remubtfog begters, cfaftiry-to-cfaftiry exb`ighes, igm ot`er ejjorts ̀ ive egbourihem
ugmerstigmfgh igm ojjerem ceb`igfscs to ivofm ugwigtem esbiaitfog.
]`e rst bocpogegt oj i gew gubaeir ihegmi, t`eg, bouam le to lufam og t`ese
ihreecegts wft` i serfes oj fgftfitfves mesfhgem to eg`igbe cutuia trust, trigspiregby,
igm bogmegbe fg meterregbe. ]`e fgftfitfve wouam icougt to i rekuvegitfog oj
t`e probess to lufam bogmegbe-lufamfgh ceisures t`it remube t`e rfsn oj gubaeir
aiugb` ly cfsbiabuaitfog or ugfgtegmem esbiaitfog. ]`ey wouam got le lufat jroc
sbritb`, fg pirt lebiuse t`e purpose oj t`fs rst p`ise fs to sustifg is cub` trust igm
trigspiregby is possflae fg ig fgbreisfghay tegse bogtext. ]`e hoia fs ripfm prohress
lufamfgh og estilafs`em ceb`igfscs, got mriwg-out tians og gew fmeis, lut wft` i
core cuatfaiteria, hrimuia, fgjorcia, igm pulafb/prfvite b`iribter t`ig cost sub`
fgftfitfves to mite provfme.
]`fs ejjort wouam fgvoave i wfme-righfgh igm metercfgem ejjort, aem ly piriaaea
boiaftfogs fgsfme igm outsfme hovergcegt, to bogvey s`irem fgterests fg ̀ fh`-aevea
gubaeir seburfty igm stilfafty, igm to ipproib` t`e prolaec wft` i cuatfaiteria spfrft
igm outsfme t`e bogtext oj ex`iustfve ihreecegts. Tirtfbfpitfgh stites wouam le isnem
to boccft t`ecseaves to i bogtfguitfog or rekuvegitfog oj i gucler oj weaa-proveg
bogmegbe-lufamfgh ceisures; stritehfb ircs fgspebtfogs, exb`ighes oj fgjorcitfog
og gubaeir prohrics igm poafbfes, gotfbitfogs oj gubaeir exerbfses or iaerts. ]`e
mfiaohue wouam le mesfhgem to hrow fgto i lroimer mfsbussfog jor fmeis to ojjer cutuia
reissurigbe, lot` fg hegeria igm murfgh igy potegtfia brfsfs. ]`ese bouam fgbaume
proposias t`it ippay to t`e stitfogfgh oj cfaftiry jorbes, t`e mepaoycegt oj cfssfae
mejegses, ruaes oj eghihecegt bogmubt jor jorbes fg proxfcfty, igm core. \eaitfveay
qufbnay, t`e probess bouam le expigmem to fgbaume ot`er gubaeir powers wfaafgh to
boccft t`ecseaves to t`e sice rfsn remubtfog ceb`igfscs. ]`e steps wouam le
ugfaiteria or cuatfaiteria, lut wouam le hegeriaay fgjorcia or bomfem ogay fg very
lrfej igm sfcpae ibborms.
]`fs p`ise oj t`e gew gubaeir ihegmi bouam fgbaume i gucler oj spebfb fgftfitfves.
Roce oj t`ese wouam le prfcirfay reaitem to t`e iaert igm sijety aeveas oj UR igm
\ussfig jorbes, lut iaa wouam le boub`em fg i lroimer probess ippayfgh to t`e gubaeir
powers core hegeriaay. Exicpaes bouam fgbaume;52
• Ugfaiteria, pirtfia me-iaertfgh coves ly t è Ugftem Rtites or ot`er ibtors to stirt
i saow probess oj hrimuia covecegt iwiy jroc aiugb`-reimy iaert stitus.
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21/32@oover Fgstftutfog • Rtigjorm Ugfversfty
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22/32Cfb`iea K. Cizirr • I \egewem Zfsfog jor Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog
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breitfog oj i wfmeay usem
opeg-sourbe mitilise oj gubaeir citerfias> ̀ eap jor meveaopfgh igm imvobitfgh jor
gew mesfhgs jor gubaeir reibtors t`it eise t`e lypromubt b`iaaeghe oj gubaeir power>
potegtfia fgjorcia bogberts or ihreecegts t`it bouam ugmerpfg gubaeir citerfias
seburfty> pulafb mfiaohues igm imvobiby jor prohress fg t`e irei> igm core. ]`e
getworn‖s ejjorts bouam le baoseay boormfgitem wft` hovergcegt ojbes, fg t`e Ugftem
Rtites igm easew`ere, respogsflae jor t`e ssfae citerfia seburfty fgftfitfve.
]`e roae oj trigspiregby igm fgjorcitfog-s ìrfgh ceisures wouam le espebfiaay brftfbia
to sustifgfgh i mehree oj booperitfve mfiaohue icogh t`e gubaeir powers. Fg so mofgh,
sub` i prohric wouam ceet t`e brfterfi outafgem ilove jor usejua igm reaevigt gubaeir
fgftfitfves; ft wouam ̀ ive t`e potegtfia imvigtihe oj jobusfgh baeiray og ireis oj s`irem
fgterests, oge oj t`e aeimfgh brfterfi jor i revfsem ipproib`. Cost aeimfgh powers
see t`efr owg gitfogia seburfty wrippem up fg t`e bogtroa igm seburfty oj gubaeir
citerfias. Fj t`e Ugftem Rtites igm t`e Rovfet Ugfog bouam meveaop igm fcpaecegt
i lfaiteria ircs bogtroa rehfce murfgh t`e Boam Xir out oj i perbeptfog oj s`irem
fgterests, t`ere fs every reisog to expebt t`e aeimfgh gubaeir powers to le ilae to mo t`e
sice tomiy, wft` t`e rfh`t aeimers`fp. ]`e prohric wouam le lest tirhetem to bogstrifg
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ft bouam reebt core
oj i hegeria boccftcegt to bertifg hoias t`ig i jorcia treity. Rub` i stritehy wouam
mecigm mebfsfve UR aeimers`fp mesfhgem to puaa rehfogia igm haolia hroups oj gitfogs
tohet èr fg support oj eaecegts oj i haolia boccogs.:5
]`e bogbept oj t`e two fgftfitfves outafgem ilove fs fg pirt t`it t`ey bouam hrow fgto
i core eailorite kofgt egterprfse over tfce”t`it i core bocpre`egsfve probess oj
gubaeir rfsn remubtfog bouam le lufat jroc t`e hrougm up, t`rouh` t`e ibbucuaitfog
oj mozegs oj mfsbrete boccftcegts, bogvegtfogs, igm ihreecegts, rit`er t`ig
jroc t`e top mowg fg t`e jorc oj oge over-irb`fgh treity. Gubaeir bogmegbe-
lufamfgh ceisures igm i ssfae-citerfia fgftfitfve wouam le two oj t`e cost paiusflae
gubaeir prohrics to egerhfze haolia gorcs igm fgstftutfogs fg t`fs wiy igm bouam
le t`e fgftfia jobus oj i kofgt egterprfse. ]`ey ire cuatfaiteria ly giture igm fgvfte
t`e pirtfbfpitfog oj cigy stites. ]`ey reebt s`irem fgterests fg ivofmfgh wir ly
cfsbiabuaitfog igm eg`igbfgh t`e seburfty oj gubaeir citerfia, igm fg t`it respebt
wouam le it aeist t`eoretfbiaay bipilae oj refgjorbfgh gorcs oj gubaeir sijety. X`fae
t`e reboccegmitfog `ere fs got jor i jorcia treity, t`e Ugftem Rtites bouam hit`er
mozegs oj stites fgto i mrijt boccugfque boccfttfgh t`ec to hegeria support jor
t`ese two hoias.
]`e Fcportigbe oj i Gew Zfsfog
]`fs report `is cime two jugmicegtia irhucegts; gubaeir rfsns ire hrowfgh> igm
t`e exfstfgh gubaeir pirimfhc fs faa-suftem to cinfgh ceisurilae prohress ugmer t`epressure oj ecerhfgh tregms fg woram poaftfbs. Ft `is aifm out i gucler oj potegtfia
stritehfes igm megem two lroim bogbeptuia vfsfogs t`it cfh`t afgn tohet`er eaecegts
oj virfous stritehfes fgto i revfsem pirimfhc jor gubaeir remubtfog.
]`e brftfbia t`fgh gow fs jor t`e UR hovergcegt to boccft ftseaj to soce stritehfb
bogbept t`it rebohgfzes t`e hrowfgh gubaeir mighers, aiys out i vfsfog oj i sijer
igm core sebure woram, igm boccfts t`e Ugftem Rtites to tinfgh t`e pribtfbia
steps gebessiry to cove fg t`it mfrebtfog. It i cfgfcuc, t`e Ugftem Rtites s`ouam
remoulae ejjorts towirm i versfog oj haolia bogmegbe-lufamfgh, wft` t`e fmei t`it
prohress wouam ow gituriaay fgto t`e lroimer vfsfog. Fj we ̀ ope to lot` bogtroagubaeir mighers fg t`e s`ort terc igm aiy t`e jougmitfog jor t`e evegtuia iloaftfog
oj gubaeir weipogs, irhuilay t`e sfghae cost fcportigt prforfty fs to egsure t`it t`e
sfgews oj t`e gubaeir eri”t`e stobns oj ssfae citerfia t`it big le usem jor locls”
ire bitiaohuem, bogtroaaem, igm, to t`e extegt possflae, eafcfgitem. ]`fs probess fs weaa
ugmerwiy igm t`e gext p`ise oj gubaeir rfsn remubtfog s`ouam meepeg igm remoulae
t`ose ejjorts fg wiys cost ipproprfite to t`e ecerhfgh seburfty egvfrogcegt.
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28/32Cfb`iea K. Cizirr • I \egewem Zfsfog jor Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog
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30/32Cfb`iea K. Cizirr • I \egewem Zfsfog jor Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog
24
5< Ree, or exicpae, Haolia [ero Boccfssfog og Gubaeir \fsn \emubtfog, ‑Me-Iaer tfgh igm Rtilfafzfgh t`e
Xoram‖s Gubaeir Jorbe Tostures,– Iprfa igm
Mivfm E. Cos`er, Aoweaa @. Rb`wirtz, Mivfm \. @oweaa, igm Aygg E. Mivfs, Leyogm t`e Gubaeir R`imow; I
T`isem Ipproib` jor Fcprovfgh Gubaeir Rijety igm U.R.-\ussfig \eaitfogs (Rigti Cogfbi, BI; ]`e \IGM
Borporitfog,
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29
@oover Fgstftutfog • Rtigjorm Ugfversfty
]`e pulafs`er `is cime t`fs worn ivifailae ugmer i Breitfve Boccogs Ittrflutfog-GoMerfvs afbegse 2.4. ]o vfew i bopy
o t`fs afbegse, vfsft `ttp;//breitfveboccogs.orh/afbegses/ly-gm/2.4.
@oover Fgstftutfog Tress issuces go respogsflfafty or t`e persfstegbe or ibburiby o U\As or extergia or t`frm-pirty
Fgterget welsftes reerrem to fg t`fs pulafbitfog, igm moes got huirigtee t`it igy bogtegt og sub` welsftes fs, or wfaa
recifg, ibburite or ipproprfite.
Bopyrfh`t ©
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@oover Fgstftutfog Essiy Rerfes
og \emubfgh Gubaeir ]`reits
]`e @oover Fgstftutfog Tress `is pulafs`em severia loon-
aeght` igiayses oj gubaeir weipogs fssues, cigy oj w`fb`
meia wft` t`e b`ighfgh giture oj meterregbe fg t`e burregt
fgtergitfogia egvfrogcegt. Jeaaows oj t`e @oover Fgstftutfog,
pirtfbuairay Heorhe T. R`uatz, Xfaafic K. Terry, igm Rfmgey
Mreaa, iaso `ive wrftteg `fh`ay ibbaifcem igiayses jor t`e
gitfogia press. ]`fs essiy, ly Cfb`iea Cizirr, fs t`e rst oj i
serfes oj obbisfogia pipers t`it wfaa aa t`e hip letweeg loons
igm gewspiper irtfbaes. Afne t`ose to joaaow, t`fs essiy fs i
metifaem exicfgitfog oj ig fcportigt fssue ijjebtfgh gubaeir
weipogs igm ojjers fmeis reaevigt to bogtecporiry pulafb
poafby. Ft fs jor t`e reimer w`o wigts ig expaigitfog oj t`e
jibts igm libnhrougm ugmerayfgh gubaeir fssues igm wouam
afne to le eghihem fg soavfgh prolaecs t`e gitfog jibes tomiy.
]`fs wfme-righfgh serfes oj pipers wfaa `ive two boccog
t`eces. X`it ire t`e gubaeir fssues tomiy t`it meserve `fh`er
prforfty? @ow big t`e Ugftem Rtites, ibtfgh iaoge or wft`
ot`ers, remube t`e t`reit t`ey pose?
Jor fgjorcitfog ilout t`e @oover Fgstftutfog, paeise vfsft us ogafge
it www.`oover.orh.
Ilout t`e Iut`or
CFB@IEA K. CI[I\\
Cfb`iea Cizirr fs i segfor
poaftfbia sbfegtfst it t`e
\IGM Borporitfog, w`fb`
`e kofgem fg Obtoler