A project to increase grid resiliency and accelerate ... · • Capabilities • DT Portal...
Transcript of A project to increase grid resiliency and accelerate ... · • Capabilities • DT Portal...
Vermont Weather Analytics Center A project to increase grid resiliency
and accelerate renewables integration
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Vermont Weather Analytics Center Outline
• VELCO-IBM Joint Development Agreement
• IBM Deep Thunder • Background • Model Specifications • Deep Thunder vs. Traditional Weather Models • Capabilities • DT Portal Interface • Verification
• VELCO – Lyndon State College Partnership • Progress to Date • Upcoming Work
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VELCO-IBM JDA/Partnership Overview
• JDA is a two year research agreement with IBM • Objectives of the research include:
• Increase grid reliability, • Better balance electrical supply and demand, and • Better integrate renewable energy into the Transco grid
• Efforts are focused on four software modes and Hardware/Software:
• Predictive weather model (Deep Thunder) • Electric Demand Forecast Model • Renewable Generation Forecast Model • Renewable Integration Stochastic Engine (RISE) • Hardware/Software
Photo: Andrew Gimino
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Weather Analytics Center Project – two-year undertaking to develop intellectual property using coupled data models and related software. Purpose is to increase grid reliability, lower weather event-related operational costs and optimize utilization of renewable generation resources. Utilizes four models: • Deep Thunder: produce accurate weather forecasts up to 48 hours
in advance down to 2 sqkm – lower weather event costs
• Demand Forecast Model: increase accuracy of state load forecasts – better plan for future needs
• Renewable Forecast Model: produce generation forecasts for
solar and wind farms – improve power supply/planning • Renewable Integration Stochastic Engine (RISE): integrates the
results of the aforementioned models to optimize the value of Vermont's generation, demand response, and transmission assets
VELCO-IBM Research Partnership First Project:
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• Name originated from IBM Deep Blue (chess computer) • Project began in 1995 • First application provided forecasts for 1996 Olympics in
Atlanta, GA • Operated out of Thomas J. Watson Research Center in
Yorktown Heights, NY (IBM Research HQ) • Current applications:
– Utilities – Agriculture – International sporting events
IBM Deep Thunder Background:
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• Public weather data cannot predict 24 hours out (with reasonable confidence) the wind speed or solar output at a specific location in 10 minute intervals
• Using supercomputing, extensive customizations/parameterizations, and leading-edge analytics, Deep Thunder can produce high resolution/hyper-local forecasts for Vermont that will ultimately improve: – Resiliency – Response – Renewables
• Better model better forecasts better decision-making (i.e. save more money)
IBM Deep Thunder Background:
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• Utilizes WRF model (Weather Research & Forecasting) • Forecast length: 48 hours • Frequency: 2 runs/day • Availability: 0800 and 1500 hrs (tentative) • Resolution: 2 km at 10 min intervals (currently evaluating 1-2 km)
VTWAC Model Suite
IBM Deep Thunder Model Specifications:
Deep Thunder Demand Renewable
Renewable Integrated Stochastic
Engine (RISE)
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Model Scale Forecast Length Resolution Interval
GFS Synoptic 384 hrs (16 days) 27-35 km 3 hours
CMC (Canadian) Synoptic 240 hrs
(10 days) 25 km 3 hours
ECMWF (European) Synoptic 240 hrs
(10 days) 16 km 6 hours
NAM Mesoscale 84 hrs (3.5 days) 12 km 3 hours
Deep Thunder Mesoscale 48 hrs *2 km 10 mins
*evaluating 1-2 km
IBM Deep Thunder Deep Thunder vs. Traditional Weather Models:
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2 km Resolution (Deep Thunder)
16 km Resolution (i.e. European Model)
IBM Deep Thunder Model Specifications:
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VELCO-IBM Research Partnership Model Specifications:
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IBM Deep Thunder Capabilities
• Temperature • Liquid precipitation • Pressure • Wet bulb • Dew point • Wind speed
• Wind chill • Heat index • Wind gusts • Cloud water density • Cloud height • Visibility • Shortwave radiation • Precipitation rate • Accumulated precipitation • Snowfall rate • Snowfall depth • Freezing rain* • Surface runoff • Maximum reflectivity
*Future model addition
Additional DT Parameters Typical Model Parameters
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Weather forecasting toolkit
Global Global forecast models GFS, European, Canadian, etc.
Climate trends El Nino, La Nina, etc.
Regional Regional forecast models NAM
Local High Resolution: Deep Thunder
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• Compared observed temperatures (Rutland Airport) to
model forecasts during the period of 7/25/14 02:00 – 7/26/12 02:00 (06Z Forecast) – Euro – GFS – NAM – Deep Thunder
IBM Deep Thunder Verification
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IBM Deep Thunder Verification – Non-Event (Control)
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IBM Deep Thunder Verification – Non-Event (Control)
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IBM Deep Thunder 7/8/14 – Severe Thunderstorm Event
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IBM Deep Thunder 7/8/14 – Severe Thunderstorm Event – DT Portal Interface
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IBM Deep Thunder 7/8/14 – Severe Thunderstorm Event – DT Portal Interface
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• Project partners — In addition to our electric utility owners, project stakeholders include the State of Vermont, Lyndon State College, Vermont Electric Power Producers, Inc., UVM and ISO-NE
• LSC: Conduct applied research connecting major storms to power outages - major outcomes:
– Develop database linking impacts (outages) and historic weather events – Test and develop different approaches to predicting major weather
systems’ impacts on VELCO and Distribution utility systems
• Examine climate (long-term) forecasts of renewable energy resources in Vermont – major outcomes:
– Develop local climate forecast datasets that can be valuable to Vermont’s utilities, energy, agriculture
– Determine how solar and wind resources may change through the year 2100
Vermont Weather Analytics Center Collaboration is Key
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Vermont Weather Analytics Center LSC Storm Example: Sever Thunderstorms and Outages
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• Renewable Integration Stochastic (RISE) scope development continues
• Entire VTWAC team have been given access to DT Portal and have begun to provide initial feedback to portal interface
• VTWAC 2nd workshop was held October 16th at VELCO • Team representatives have met with VTrans • Gap analysis completed to identify weather observation gaps • Finalize locations and system layout for weather stations and
submitted order • Evaluation and testing of model at higher resolution to improve
accuracy (1-2km)
Vermont Weather Analytics Center Progress to Date
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• Lyndon State College conducting research connecting major storms to power outages
• Renewable integration demo scheduled for early December • Deep Thunder users’ group • Finalize model configurations and parameterizations
– Resolution (1-2km) – Forecast delivery times
• Provide further feedback and recommendations on portal interface considering various needs of end-users
• Perform retrospective analyses on significant events with a focus on renewables and train with current model
• Continue model verification
Vermont Weather Analytics Center Upcoming Work
11/19/2014
Questions?
Mary E. Coombs VTWAC Project Manager
Vermont Electric Power Company (VELCO) Email: [email protected]
Work: (802) 770-6253