A. Progress Review Tim Johnson 28 January 2005.

A. Progress Review

Tim Johnsonwww.point-topic.com

28 January 2005

2 www.point-topic.com

Contents

• Broadband overview– Following the established pattern

• A good year for the UK– Moving up the rankings

• UK competitive situation– The most multi-player market– The lowest level of unbundling

3

Broadband Overview


136m broadband lines worldwide at 30 September 2004

40.6

58.7

37.1

Americas

Asia Pacific

EMEA

Source: Point Topic Q3 2004

Million lines


Broadband lines worldwide

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Dec-9

8

Jun-

99

Dec-9

9

Jun-

00

Dec-0

0

Jun-

01

Dec-0

1

Jun-

02

Dec-0

2

Jun-

03

Dec-0

3

Jun-

04

Dec-0

4

Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f b

roa

db

an

d li

ne

s

DSL lines

Cable Modems etc.

Total broadband


Broadband lines in Western Europe

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Th

ou

san

ds o

f b

road

ban

d li

nes

DSL lines

Cable Modems etc.

Total broadband


Broadband lines in the UK

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Dec-9

8

Jun-

99

Dec-9

9

Jun-

00

Dec-0

0

Jun-

01

Dec-0

1

Jun-

02

Dec-0

2

Jun-

03

Dec-0

3

Jun-

04

Dec-0

4

Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f b

roa

db

an

d li

ne

s

DSL lines

Cable Modems etc.

Total broadband


Broadband penetration levels still vary widely

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

Pen

etr

ati

on

of p

op

ula

tio

n

France

Germany

Italy

UK

Canada

USA

China

Japan

South Korea

Taiwan


Penetration levels in major countries are converging

0.01%

0.10%

1.00%

10.00%

100.00%

Pen

etr

ati

on

of p

op

ula

tio

n

France

Germany

Italy

UK

Canada

USA

China

Japan

South Korea

Taiwan


Share of broadband lines by technology Q3 2004

63.5%

28.5%

7.6% 0.4%

DSL

Cable modems

FTTx

Others



Share of broadband lines by technology Q2 2004

60.7%

32.0%

7.1%

0.2%

DSL

Cable modems

FTTx

Others



Broadband is growing faster than mobile did (World)

Source: Informa, Ovum, Point Topic, H1 2004

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

10,000,000

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Th

ou

san

ds

of

co

nn

ec

tion

s w

orl

dw

ide

(lo

g s

ca

le)

Mobiles

DSL lines

Totalbroadband


Broadband is growing faster than mobile did (UK)

Source: Informa, Ovum, Point Topic, H1 2004

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f c

on

ne

cti

on

s

in U

K (

log

sc

ale

)

Mobiles

DSL lines

Totalbroadband

14

UK international rankings


Top Ten broadband countries by number of lines: Q204 - Q304

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f b

roa

db

an

d li

ne

s

in u

se

Q2 2004

Q3 2004



Top Ten broadband countries by penetration Q3 2004

0

5

10

15

20

25

Bro

ad

ba

nd

lin

es

pe

r 1

00

p

op

ula

tio

n

Q3 2004

Source: Point Topic Q3 2004, countries with at least 500,000 population


Second Ten broadband countries

by penetration Q3 2004

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Bro

ad

ba

nd

lin

es

pe

r 1

00

p

op

ula

tio

n

Q3 2004

Source: Point Topic Q3 2004, countries with at least 500,000 population


The UK has been growing faster than Western Europe

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f b

roa

db

an

d c

on

ne

cti

on

s

World

WesternEurope

UK

Source: Point Topic, H1 2004


UK fourth in DSL, but gaining

DSL lines in the major European countries

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04

Mil

lio

n l

ine

s

FranceGermanyItalyUK


UK third in broadband, and also gaining

Broadband lines in the major European countries

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04

Mil

lio

n l

ine

s



UK second in broadband penetration; first in 2005?

Broadband penetration in major European countries

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04

Lin

es

pe

r 1

00

po

pu

lati

on


22

UK competitive situation


BT has the smallest share of the retail broadband market in the EU

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Sh

are

of

bro

ad

ban

d m

ark

et, J

un

e 2

004

Cable modems

LLU

Resale DSL

Incumbent DSL

Source: ECTA, Point Topic


A tale of two telcos: DSL competition in France and UK

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Sep-0

1

Dec-0

1

Mar

-02

Jun-0

2

Sep-0

2

Dec-0

2

Mar

-03

Jun-0

3

Sep-0

3

Dec-0

3

Mar

-04

Jun-0

4

Sep-0

4

Mill

ion

DS

L li

ne

s

France unbundled

UK unbundled

France wholesale

UK wholesale

Source: ECTA


Tim Johnson

www.point-topic.com

[email protected]+44 (0) 20 7551 9260

A. Progress Review Tim Johnson 28 January 2005.

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