A presentation to the UNFCCC workshop on

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

PRECISProviding REgional Climates for Impact

StudiesThe Hadley Centre regional climate

modelling systemA presentation to the UNFCCC workshop on

non-Annex 1 national communication preparation guidelines

by

Richard Jones, Met Office Hadley Centre, UK

8 April 2003


Outline

Background: Motivation and PRECIS overview PRECIS components and their application Future climate scenarios available from PRECIS Applying PRECIS in impacts assessment Limitations of PRECIS and future developments


Motivation

UNFCCC requirement to assess national vulnerability and plans for adaptation

UNFCCC requirement to submit National Communications

Both need estimate of impacts Impacts need detailed scenarios of future climate Scenarios are best produced locally, using expert

knowledge and increasing ownership


Predicting impacts


Who is PRECIS for?

Government scientists from less developed countries involved in vulnerability and adaptation studies

A regional model’s domain usually encompasses several countries, so it is hoped that neighbouring countries will collaborate to produce ensembles

It is hoped to draw on local resources, such as

expertise in local climate


Who funds PRECIS?

DEFRA DFID UNDP

HadleyCentre's

RCM

PC RCMand userinterface

Trainingmaterial


How fast does it go?

T3E (supercomputer) - 1.5 months (36 Processors)

PC (Intel P4 2.8 GHz) - 4.5 months

30 year integration, 100x100 grid points

Hardware requirements PC running under the Linux operating system

Memory : 512MB minimum; 768MB recommended

Minimum 60GB disk space + offline storage for archiving data

Simulation speed proportional to chip speed


PRECIS: PC system components

U S E R In te rfa ce R e g ion a l M o d e l G ra ph ic p a cka ge

P R E C IS : P C sys tem

DomainScenarioPeriod

Diagnostics

Run PRECISRun PRECIS


PRECIS components: full list

User-interface to set up RCM experiments

The latest Hadley Centre RCM

Data-processing and graphics software

Boundary conditions from latest Hadley Centre GCM

Training course and materials

PRECIS website and helpdesk


What is a Regional Climate Model?

Comprehensive physical high resolution climate model that covers a limited area of the globe, usually including the atmosphere and land surface components of the climate system, and containing representations of the important processes within the climate system (e.g., cloud, radiation, rainfall, soil hydrology).


Limited area models driven at the boundaries by GCM observed boundary data.

Resolution of 50km

Regional Climate Models (RCMs)


Boundary conditions

Requests through– PRECIS website

– helpdesk


Training course and supporting material

Training in the use of PRECIS will focus on:– Background science including uncertainties

– Interpretation of PRECIS results by regional experts

– Construction of regional climate change scenarios

– Building capacity in countries/regions using PRECIS

PRECIS will be supplied with:– a workbook covering the background science, system description

and the uses and limitations of PRECIS

– a technical manual explaining technical details about the system and how install and to use it


Support and follow-up Helpdesk

– email, phone

– web-based discussion

Website– news

– updates

– datasets

– resources

Collaboration/workshops


Regional detail when simulating current climate

Realistic detail in climate change predictions

Resolution of islands, smaller countries e.g. Italy

Realistic simulation of extreme events

Provides comprehensive data for impact models

Applications of RCMs


WINTER PRECIPITATION OVER BRITIAN

Observed, and simulated with RCM and GCM


SIMULATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE

in the PRECIS regional climate model Global climate model Regional

climate model


WINTER DAILY RAINFALL OVER THE SW CAPE, SOUTH

AFRICASW Cape winter rainfall: Observed - red, GCM - green, RCM - blue

<0.1 0.1-5 5-20 20-30 30-40 >40

mm/day


CHANGES IN MONSOON PRECIPITATION

between the present day and the middle of the 21st century

Global climate model Regional climate model


SUMMER TEMPERATURES in the 2080s

compared to the present day, due to A2 emissions

Climate on islands changes very differently to the surrounding Mediterranean Sea, and can only be predicted using an RCM

Global climate model Regional climate model


Future climate scenarios available from PRECIS

PRECIS can provide:– climate scenarios for any region

– an estimate of uncertainty due different emissions

– an estimate of uncertainty due to climate variability

Data available from PRECIS– comprehensive for atmosphere and land-surface

– grid-scale box average quantities

– maximum time resolution one hour


CO2 EMISSIONS PROFILESunder IPCC SRES scenarios

Source:IPCC


GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RISEdue to four SRES emissions scenarios


Applying PRECIS in impacts assessments

Obtain current state from impacts model via:

a) observed data e.g. as used in model validation

b) RCM control data Obtain future state from impacts model using:

– RCM climate changes (in means, variability, etc) applied to observed data (compare with a)

– RCM future climate data directly (compare with b)


BAY OF BENGAL CYCLONE simulated by the PRECIS regional climate

model

Resulting storm surge simulated using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory model


CHANGE IN ANNUAL SURFACE RUNOFF

between today and the 2080s, for A2 emissions

Southampton University hydrological model


Current limitations of PRECIS 10 year simulations take a month or more It is a model hence imperfect, i.e.

uncertainty due to use of only one RCM is not captured

Uncertainty due to imperfect driving data (i.e. from only one GCM) is not captured

Resolution of 50km or 25km insufficient for some impacts applications

Coastal or marine impacts have to be inferred (e.g. storm surges)


PRECIS: treatment of uncertainties

PRECIS accounts for uncertainties due to:

– Future emissions - uses 4 SRES scenarios

– Natural variability - uses initial condition ensembles PRECIS does not account for uncertainties due

to:– The conversion of emissions to concentrations - carbon

cycle or chemistry (except sulphur cycle) not represented

– Uncertainty in the response of the climate system - only boundary conditions from 1 GCM are used

– Uncertainty in the detailed climate change - only one RCM is used


CHANGE IN S ASIA SUMMER RAINFALL with PREDICTED BY NINE GCMs (A2

emissions)

A2 emissions scenario


% CHANGE INWINTER

PRECIPITATION


REPRESENTATION OF THE PHILIPPINES

WITH DIFFERENT MODEL RESOLUTIONS

25km RCM resolution 50km RCM resolution GCM 300km resolution


FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS

Continuously upgraded to new processors Ability to run PRECIS RCM from different GCMs

– at least two to be added this year

– relevant cooperation from GCM centres being sought

Intercomparisons of all RCMs being organised– No plans for PRECIS to incorporate other RCMs

Resolution of model being improved to 10km RCM with ocean component being built


Final remarks

You can contact us via:– Email: [email protected]

– Tel: +44 1344 856885

– Fax: +44 1344 854898

Web-site for information on PRECIS– www.hadleycentre.com/models/PRECIS.html

A presentation to the UNFCCC workshop on

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