Laura Tremblay-BoyerLaura Tremblay-Boyer Eric Ross AndersonEric Ross Anderson

A Preliminary A Preliminary Assessment of Assessment of

Ecosystem Vulnerability Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change in to Climate Change in

PanamaPanama

Presented in the McGill Panama Field Study Semester Internship Program Symposium

Research in Panama (ENVR 451)

On the 26th of April 2007 at 9:05am in the Tupper Building of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Panama

Host InstitutionHost Institution

Supervisors: Emil Cherrington and Roxana SegundoSupervisors: Emil Cherrington and Roxana Segundo

The Water Center for the Humid The Water Center for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Tropics of Latin America and the CaribbeanCaribbean

The Mesoamerican Regional The Mesoamerican Regional Visualization and Monitoring SystemVisualization and Monitoring System

EVCCEVCCan index of an index of eecosystem cosystem

vvulnerability to ulnerability to cclimate limate cchangehange

I.I. Sea level riseSea level riseElevación del nivel del marElevación del nivel del mar

II.II. Ecosystem GeometryEcosystem GeometryGeometría de los ecosistemasGeometría de los ecosistemas

III.III. Climatic nicheClimatic nicheEspacio climáticoEspacio climático

IV.IV. Species SensitivitySpecies SensitivitySensibilidad de las especiesSensibilidad de las especies

The main tool for this project was Geographical The main tool for this project was Geographical Information Systems (software: ArcGIS), kindly Information Systems (software: ArcGIS), kindly provided by CATHALACprovided by CATHALAC

MethodsMethods

Ethics StatementEthics Statement• Credibility of the resultsCredibility of the results

Vulnerability values were calculated for each Vulnerability values were calculated for each ecosystemecosystem patch patch of Panama according to its of Panama according to its ecosystem typeecosystem type

Ecosystems: types and Ecosystems: types and patchespatches

Example: 1 ecosystem type has 27 separate and individual patchesExample: 1 ecosystem type has 27 separate and individual patchesTropical broadleaf evergreen submontane rainforest (500-1000m Caribbean, 700-Tropical broadleaf evergreen submontane rainforest (500-1000m Caribbean, 700-

1200m Pacific) – no human intervention1200m Pacific) – no human intervention

37 ecosystem types37 ecosystem types 1303 patches1303 patches

Land in coastal zones with an elevation of zero Land in coastal zones with an elevation of zero to one meter was selectedto one meter was selected

A vulnerability value based on this density A vulnerability value based on this density was obtainedwas obtained

EVCCEVCC11 - Sea level rise - Sea level rise

1. Ratio: Edge vs. Core1. Ratio: Edge vs. Core

EVCCEVCC22 - Ecosystem - Ecosystem geometrygeometry

is more vulnerable thanis more vulnerable than

is more is more vulnerable vulnerable

thanthan

2. Relative Perimeter2. Relative Perimeter

A B

C D

C

1 km2

3. For each ecosystem patch, average Gower metric of all cells for temperature and precipitation

4. Independently rank average Gower metric of all ecosystem patches on a scale from 1 to 10 for temperature and precipitation

Gower metric for each 1 km2 cell:

Predicted change in temperature and precipitation in 2025, 2050 and 2099

Intra-annual temperature and precipitation range

EVCCEVCC33 – Climatic Niche of the – Climatic Niche of the EcosystemsEcosystems

C

++

EVCC3 – Results

C

EVCC3 rank for temperature vs. precipitation, area of bubble represents the number of ecosystem patches with that combination of rank

vs.

EVCCEVCC33

Temperature vs. Temperature vs. PrecipitationPrecipitationfor each ecosystem for each ecosystem

patchpatch0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Ecosystem rank TemperatureE

cosy

stem

ran

k P

reci

pita

tion

C

EVCCEVCC44 – Species sensitivity – Species sensitivity

C

EVCCEVCC44 – Results – Results

C

EVCCEVCC44 and the distribution of endemic species and the distribution of endemic species

Total VulnerabilitiesTotal Vulnerabilities

According to the quality and pertinence of According to the quality and pertinence of the data, the rank of importance:the data, the rank of importance:

C

Additional EVCC Additional EVCC ApplicationsApplications

C

EVCC and degree of human interventionEVCC and degree of human intervention

Red = highest average; orange = second highest; yellow = third highest.Red = highest average; orange = second highest; yellow = third highest.Blue = most commonly ranked with high vulnerabilityBlue = most commonly ranked with high vulnerability

Level of intervention Avg_EVCC1 Ave_EVCC2 Ave_EVCC3 Ave_EVCC4 Ave_EVCC

0none 5.0987 6.4086 4.6817 2.2658 18.4548

1Natural system with low intervention

2.1636 6.2727 8.2545 3.4727 20.1636

2Natural system with medium intervention

0.0000 5.0000 7.0000 3.5000 15.5000

3Natural system with high intervention in mountains

0.0000 5.7714 7.4286 4.0857 17.2857

4Natural system with high intervention in lowlands

2.7025 6.3223 8.5207 2.8678 20.4132

5Productive system with 10-50% natural veg

3.2333 6.3167 8.1333 3.2333 20.9167

6Productive system with <10% natural veg

4.5652 6.3696 9.1522 2.7391 22.8261

7Agroforestry 0.0000 6.3333 10.8333 3.1667 20.3333

8Shrimp / Salt production

4.6667 6.8333 7.3333 2.0000 20.8333

9Populated place 3.9048 6.7619 8.5714 3.1429 22.3810

C

Average EVCC inside protected areas = 17.63062

Average EVCC for all of Panama = 17.842452

Comparative Analysis: Protected Areas and EVCC for Ecosystem Type

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

7b. BSO

T pantanoso - dom

in. por palmas

21. Veg. costera de trans. sobre suelos m

arinos muy rec.

7c. BSO

T pantanoso - dom

in. por Cam

pnosperma

9. Manglares

6a. BSO

T aluvial ocasionalm

ente inundado

18a. Pant. de cyperáceas con abund. acum. de m

at. org.

7a. BSO

T pantanoso - dom

in. por dicotiledoneas

13b. Sist. prod. con veg. leñosa nat. o esp. signif. (<10

12. Poblados

6c. BSO

T aluvial ocasionalm

ente inundado - domin. por

1b. BSO

T latifoliado de tierras bajas - B

I

1a. BSO

T latifoliado de tierras bajas

1c. BSO

T latifoliado de tierras bajas - PI

17. Vegetación de páram

o

22. Albina con escasa vegetación

13a. Sist. prod. con veg. leñosa nat. o esp. signif. (10-50

15. Sist. prod. acuático-camaronera y salina

18b. Pantanos herbáceos salobres

10. B. deciduo por la sequia, latifoliado de tierras bajas

14. Plantaciones forestales

16. Sabanas arbol. de graminoides cortos inund.

20. Flujo de lava con escasa vegetación

8b. B. sem

ideciduo tropical de tierras bajas - bastante

23. Carrizales pant. y form

. sim. dom

in. por Typha

8c. B. sem

ideciduo tropical de tierras bajas - poco

8a. B. sem

ideciduo tropical de tierras bajas

6b. BSO

T aluvial ocasionalm

ente inundado - Med. I

3a. BSO

T latifoliado m

ontano

5. BSO

T latifoliado nuboso

2b. BSO

T latifoliado subm

ontano - BI

3b. BSO

T latifoliado m

ontano - BI

4a. BSO

T latifoliado altim

ontano

2a. BSO

T latifoliado subm

ontano

2c. BSO

T latifoliado subm

ontano - PI

3c. BSO

T latifoliado m

ontano - PI

11. Isla menores de 140 ha

4b. BSO

T latifoliado altim

ontano - Med. I

Ecosystem Type

Ave

rage

EV

CC

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Percentage Protected

Ave_EVCC

Percent Protected

EVCC and Protected AreasEVCC and Protected Areas

C

Distribution of Distribution of biodiversity and biodiversity and

endemic species in endemic species in PanamaPanama

a. Distribution of biodiversity

b. Endemic Species

Correlations between the Correlations between the EVCCs, distribution of EVCCs, distribution of

biodiversity and endemic biodiversity and endemic speciesspecies

# species # endemic species

C

Combining EVCC with the distribution of Combining EVCC with the distribution of biodiversity – in a mapbiodiversity – in a map

Conclusions Conclusions

The EVCC index has the potential to be a very useful tool for conservation of large-scale biodiversity;

It is important to include the uncertainties and to be flexible in the application of this index, always including and improving it with the latest scientific knowledge;

Climate change should be evaluated in conjunction with other factors that threaten ecosystems

What have we learned?What have we learned?

““Vulnerability” or “vulnerabilidad” is a Vulnerability” or “vulnerabilidad” is a difficult word to say… in all languagesdifficult word to say… in all languages

GIS is a very powerful toolGIS is a very powerful tool

Communication is essentialCommunication is essential

The availability of data is necessary to The availability of data is necessary to increase the quality of environmental studiesincrease the quality of environmental studies

AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments

Our university and professorsOur university and professors CATHALAC, SERVIR, and NASACATHALAC, SERVIR, and NASA