A pluralistic nature futures framework for biodiversity and ecosystem … · 2019. 9. 4. · A...

A pluralistic nature futures framework for biodiversity and ecosystem services in

the 21st century

www.ipbes.net

@cjlinnz #NatureFutures

Oceania Ecosystem Services Forum, 4 Sep 2019, Christchurch

Carolyn Lundquist, Henrique Pereira, Rob Alkemade, IPBES Expert Group and workshop participants

Scenarios can help us explore societal-ecosystem interactions

Biodiversity and ecosystem

processes, trends

Management targets, goals and

outcomes

Societal values, investment,

preferences and trends


Why do we need new scenarios?

Scenarios are available, and useful tools for policy support, but:• Most global scenarios are limited to

assessing the impact of drivers on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

• Most global scenarios are developed for other purposes, e.g. climate change and its impacts

• Most global scenarios lack a participatory approach.

IPBES Expert Group tasked with catalyzing next generation of biodiversity scenarios https://www.ipbes.net/deliverables/3c‐scenarios‐and‐modelling


Towards a new generation of nature centered scenarios


IPCC Shared Socio-economic Pathways: Global BES assessment

O’Neill et al. 2017 Climate Change


“Visioning Nature Futures” Workshop 4-8 Sep 2017, Auckland, New Zealand

• 75 workshop participants• 31 countries• Scientists and social scientists, governments, industry, local communities, indigenous peoples, IGOs, NGOs• Stakeholders with range of expertise on biodiversity topics, from urban development to agriculture to fisheries• Extensive cofunding by NZ government, research institutions, universities, industry ($162,267)


Visioning Process


Visioning workshop: from seeds to visions


Seven positive future visions for nature and nature’s contributions to people emerged in the workshop

SPSAS Scenarios and Modelling, July 2019, Sao Pedro, Brazil

Mapping visions across dimensions and drivers

Creating scenarios from Auckland Nature Futures 25-28 June 2018, The Hague, Netherlands

Pereira, L. …. C. Lundquist. (Draft manuscript). Developing global and integrative nature‐people centred scenarios: the Nature Futures framework. People and Nature. OESF 4 Sep 2019, Christchurch


The Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services www.ipbes.net

Nature as commodityValue for nature

Nature for itself

Man

aged

for N

CPMan

agem

ent o

f nature

Wild

, un‐man

aged


The Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services www.ipbes.net

Nature as commodityValue for nature

Nature for itself

Man

aged

for n

ature

Space for n

ature

Man

aged

for p

eople

Nature for NatureIntrinsic value of nature

Space allocated for nature

Nature for SocietyNature’s benefits to people

Ecosystem services

Nature as CultureLiving in harmony

People one with nature

Emerging perspectives

on human relationships with nature

IPBES Nature Futures

Framework

Lundquist et al. (Unpublished manuscript). A pluralistic Nature Futures Framework for policy and action.Oceania Ecosystem Services Forum, 4 Sep 2019, Christchurch




Ecosystem services



Relation between

visions and perspectives

Lundquist et al. (Unpublished manuscript). A pluralistic Nature Futures Framework for policy and action.Oceania Ecosystem Services Forum, 4 Sep 2019, Christchurch

In line with earlier IPBES concept on values

Pascual et al., 2017, COSUST


Testing the Nature Futures Framework

Showcasing the Nature Futures Visions• IPBES 6 Plenary (Colombia, March 2018)• Natural Capital Symposium (March 2018)

Nature Futures Framework• CBD SBSTTA 22 (Montreal, July 2018)• IPBES MEP (Bonn, Germany, October 2018)• Webinar to BPBES (UNEP WCMC, October 2018)• CBD – Egypt (November 2018)• China Biodiversity (January 2019)• Amsterdam, Netherlands – Free University (January 2019)• Utrecht, Netherlands – Future Nature Academy (Feb 2019)• Brest, France – IMBeR (Jun 2019)• And more national/regional presentations and workshops…


Examples: Nature for Society, Nature to benefit People – From the River• Revising economic frameworks in indexes to include externalities – China - accountability system for environmental damage

• Technology to solve food demand• Blue-green infrastructure, cleaner production, use alternative pest management• Reduce overconsumption, change lifestyle choices, consumer awareness, waste less, ethical travel

• Maintain functioning ecosystem and benefits they support (clean water, air)


Examples: Nature for Nature –For the River• Nature Parks – revising to better protect biodiversity, reduce extinction risk• Ecological Conservation Redline• Banning resource extraction/forestry in China National Parks• ReWilding• Urban reforestation

• New Zealand Predator Free programme. National program to remove invasive mammals to protect native biodiversity• Adopt mosaic agro-landscape supporting biodiversity, rich soundscape


Examples: Nature/Culture, People and Nature in Harmony - With the River

• Biosphere reserves – communities living in harmony with land• Jinjunmei tea plantation alongside National Park

• Reintroducing diversity of indigenous crop varieties, diversifying what crops and fish we eat

• Reconnecting urban communities with nature - Urban nature reserves, utilization of open space for nature, reintroduce wildlife to cities

• Capturing multi-functional values in urban planning• Community co-operative gardens





Ecosystem services



How do ‘other’ nature

futures sit within the

NFF?

Mother earth

Pachamama

Natural capitalNatural capitalNature‐based solutions

Cultural landscapes

WildernessProtected areas

Biocultural revival

Co‐

ment

Co‐management

Half‐EarthLandsparing/Landsharing

RewildingRewilding


What’s next?• Step 1 in a 4-year process of developing Multiscale Scenarios for Nature Futures • Iterative cycles of visioning, stakeholder consultation, and modelling

Lundquist and 74 co‐authors. 2017. Visions for nature and nature’s contributions to people for the 21st century. NIWA Science and Technology Report No. 83. https://www.niwa.co.nz/naturefutures


From the Nature Futures Framework to Scenarios

Lundquist et al. (Unpublished manuscript). A pluralistic Nature Futures Framework for policy and action.


How might the type of work we have done here serve as a foundation for developing exploratory and policy‐intervention scenarios to inform

the CBD’s post‐2020 global biodiversity framework?


Questions?

A pluralistic nature futures framework for biodiversity and ecosystem … · 2019. 9. 4. · A...

Documents

Transcript of A pluralistic nature futures framework for biodiversity and ecosystem … · 2019. 9. 4. · A...