A perspective on sampling in india
-
Upload
juxtconsult -
Category
Marketing
-
view
2.859 -
download
1
description
Transcript of A perspective on sampling in india
Perspective on Market Research Study Sampling in India
Juxt for whoever interested (Public) 1
2Juxt for whoever interested (Public)
India is a really big country for any researcher…
Let me Introduce India to you…
3Juxt for whoever interested (Public)
Map Visual: http://www.economist.com/content/indian-summary
4Juxt for whoever interested (Public)
35 States & UTs
640 districts
7,935+ towns
640,867+ villages
1.2billion individuals
247million householdsMap Visual: http://www.economist.com/content/indian-summary
5Juxt for whoever interested (Public)
As a researcher my three key challenges been:
- To know the actual size of the universe, and size of the cell and the number of members in the final homogenous cell
- To draw appropriate random sample from that cell
- To project/correct the findings back to the population
- Then, infer it with/without enough local knowledge
Map Visual: http://www.economist.com/content/indian-summary
Ideally, how many homogenous cells the country (universe) should be divided in to for capturing the diversity (sampling & weighting) and fully understand it (infer)?
6Juxt for whoever interested (Public)
33,600 cells of Urban India =
35S/UT * 8TC * 5SEC * 6Age * 2Gender * 2Language
37,800 Cells of Rural India =
35S/UT * 3VC * 3DT * 5SEC * 6Age * 2Gender * 2Language
Can be any number, but a valid argument can be:
But realistically, that’s utopian and may be unnecessary…
Map Visual: http://www.economist.com/content/indian-summary
Most of the mass product and service marketers (who are research savvy) have a pan India reach – a distribution network that reaches out to many towns and villages, if not complete India More than 50% business of these marketers’ business
probably come from beyond the top 8 to 10 cities Consumption growths are also higher on cities beyond the
top 8 to 10 cities
All mindshare creation effort (advertising/promotion) by mass marketers today is pan India (spends on geo-locations is possible only if advertiser is very heavy on print, else TV is all pan India)
Then, why are regular market research studies (tracking) limited to just 8 to 10 cities for most of the product/service categories?
Some more points to ponder
7Juxt for whoever interested (Public)
Big budget nation representative studies NSSO: 88 Geographical Regions – Stratified random
Sampling NCAER (CMCR): Stratified Random Sampling IRS: Probability proportionate to size (PPA) - Sample
allocated proportionate to 12 years+ Universe of a geographic unit
National Family Health Survey
Regular Market Research/ Smaller studies/ Monthly Tracking Judgmental, Quota Sampling by Target Group Sometimes post survey correction weighting on 1 or 2
variables with universe estimates from IRS
Some of the sampling practices
8Juxt for whoever interested (Public)
Big Question 1:
What is better, natural (gen. pop.) proportion of users & intenders vs. TG wise quotas?Quota sampling sessions in schools always start with “it is not a advisable method, avoid as much as you can?
Why do we need quota… no reason other than to have “an analyzable base for a segment”?
9Juxt for whoever interested (Public)
Big Question 2:
Why 100 to 200 sample per town?How can 100 sample be representative for a 3million+ population town?
Even after collecting 200 odd sample with what confidence one will analyze the data at an Individual town level to take inferences, especially in India where there is a lot of diversity?
10Juxt for whoever interested (Public)
Is there a more practical way of dividing India?Before that let’s understand India a little more…
11Juxt for whoever interested (Public)
Percentage of urban population is good enough indicator for clubbing of towns together as high level homogenous groups with varied access to infrastructure, social development and consumerism
However all 100,000+ population towns can’t be similar
Urbanization in India
12Juxt for whoever interested (Public)
As per 2011 census there are 47 towns# (1 million+ population towns) accounting for 116 million population accounting for around 30% of all Indian Urban population
Let’s not forget about the growth of 1million+ towns
13Juxt for whoever interested (Public) # Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_populous_cities_in_India
The emergence of small agglomerates such as these is changing the urban setting in respect of rural access to services. Goods and service facilities are coming nearer to the consumer, and services of new kinds are emerging, inducing a diversification of jobs, notably in construction, food supply and processing, and groceries.
Emerging agglomerates of India
14Juxt for whoever interested (Public)
In some much-urbanized regions, such as Tamil Nadu, the average maximum distance to the nearest city is already only 6 km and will drop to 5.6 km in 2011. For 2011, we can expect 12.3 km for Madhya Pradesh (13.7 km in 2001), 9.2 km for Gujarat (10.2 km in 2001), and 8.1 km for Andhra Pradesh (8.8 km in 2001).
Territorial network is bringing urban agglomerations closer to towns
15Juxt for whoever interested (Public)
Is town class a substitute to town selection for smaller and regular studies?Possibly yes… but not the way Indian Census divides it… various studies provide us enough clue for right course of action.
16Juxt for whoever interested (Public)
Smaller studies can still remained urban focused yet bring in relatively better national representation with even 2000 odd sample, if a at a segment level roughly 377 (95% confidence level & 5% error margin) sample is collected then we can collect sample for 6 town classes instead of 6 to 8 towns
We must not mix up all the 1,000,000 population towns as one and try to group them in 3 sub-groups 30 lakh+ (3mn+) (Top 10 Towns, if required they should
be studied individually) 10lakh to 30lakh (1 to 3million) (37 more towns) 5lakh to 10lakh (0.5 to 1 million) (45 more towns)
1 to 5 lakh towns (404 more towns) Below 1lakh population towns (7531 more towns)
Way forward for typical small sample study
17Juxt for whoever interested (Public)
18Juxt for whoever interested (Public)
2,880 cells of Urban India =
4Z * 6TC * 5SEC * 6Age * 2Gender * 2Language
1,440 Cells of Rural India =
4Z * 3VC * 5SEC * 6Age * 2Gender * 2Language
An easier, practical and manageable way for national representative sampling would be:
Or depending on objective & budget we can reduce the no. of cells further…
Map Visual: http://www.economist.com/content/indian-summary
Thank youwww.juxtconsult.com www.getcounted.net
19