A Perspective on NASA Ames Air Traffic Management Research

Jeffery A. SchroederFederal Aviation Administration*

* Formerly NASA Ames

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Take-away

• Accurate trajectory prediction sustained key past contributions

• Present research has wide coverage, with separation assurance and traffic flow management being the top two thrusts

• We need to enable more first-look operational evaluations to meet the NextGen objectives

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Plan

• Past key contributions: – Traffic Management Advisor– Continuous descent arrivals in traffic– Direct-To

• Present research: – Separation assurance– Broad sketches of the other research

• Suggested future modifications:– Need more first-look operational evaluations– Need to resolve the vertical trajectory prediction conundrum

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Past Key ContributionsTraffic Management Advisor

BOS

ZNY

MEM

ORD

PHXLAX

SFODEN

MSP

DFWATL

FLL

Minneapolis

Seattle

Salt Lake

Oakland

Los Angeles

Albuquerque

Denver

Houston

Kansas City

Memphis

Fort Worth**

Atlanta

Miami

Jacksonville

Chicago

Boston

Cleveland

Washington

Indy

LAS

MIA

SEA

TMA installed, metering achieved

SLC

PDX

MCO

IAD

EWR

STL CVG

DTW

LGA

JFK

MDW

Adjacent- center- metering sites

IAH

CLT

PHL

Throughput increased by 3-5%

NASA version

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Past Key ContributionsContinuous Descent Arrivals in Traffic

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Past Key ContributionsDirect-To

900 flying minutes saved a day at Ft. Worth Center* 7

ControllerInterface

Data Link

Voice Link

Emerging Cockpit Technologies + Traffic Alert & Collision Avoidance System (TCAS)

TCAS

Trajectory Automation(2-20 min time horizon)

Safety Assurance(0-3 min time horizon)

Present ResearchSeparation Assurance

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ControllerInterface

Data Link

Voice Link

Emerging Cockpit Technologies + Traffic Alert & Collision Avoidance System (TCAS)

TCAS

Trajectory Automation(2-20 min time horizon)

Safety Assurance(0-3 min time horizon)

Present ResearchSeparation Assurance

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Cleveland Center New York Center

Fort Worth Center

Present ResearchSeparation Assurance

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Uni

que

airc

raft

pai

rs

Time (min)

Today’s operations

Aircraft pairs

Present ResearchSeparation Assurance

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One controller doing work of 5 to 10 people. No loss of separation.

Uni

que

airc

raft

pai

rsUni

que

airc

raft

pai

rsAircraft pairs

Time (min)

Today’s operations

Automation detects, human resolves

Aircraft pairs

Time (min)

Present ResearchSeparation Assurance

12

ControllerInterface

Data Link

Voice Link

Emerging Cockpit Technologies + Traffic Alert & Collision Avoidance System (TCAS)

TCAS

Trajectory Automation(2-20 min time horizon)

Safety Assurance(0-3 min time horizon)

Present ResearchSeparation Assurance

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69 Operational ErrorsNASA’s tactical safety assurance

Today’s conflict alerting

Alerts, %

Present ResearchSeparation Assurance

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Broad Sketches of the Other Research

• Traffic flow management– Improving sector demand predictions– Translating weather for effective re-routing– Developed structure for deciding on proper controls– Investigating aircraft-by-aircraft and aggregate optimization– Developed framework for collaboration

• Terminal area– Capacity increases with improved time-based scheduling– Alternatives for conflict detection and resolution in terminal

area– Simulations of very closely spaced parallel approaches

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Broad Sketches of the Other Research

• Configuring airspace dynamically– Multiple algorithms used to draw geometries with a recent

bakeoff showing Voronoi-genetic showing most promise– Examined combining under-utilized sectors in Cleveland

showing a potential reduction of 40% in sector-hours

• Airport surface– Optimizing surface flow showing 50% reductions in total taxi

time– Real-time simulation investigated controller acceptability of

precision-taxi operations

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Broad Sketches of the Other Research

• Trajectory prediction uncertainty– Developed framework for requirements, comparisons, and

communication of trajectory engines

• System-level analysis– Completed broad studies and have been integrating sets of

two technologies (i.e., surface/terminal, TFM/separation)

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How Long for Deployment in the Airspace?*

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How Long for Deployment in the Airspace?*

ASDE-X STARS CPDLC WAAS LAAS(GBAS)

ConOpsTo

Commisioning(years) 10

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19*2004 GAO report

How Long for Deployment in the Airspace?*

*2004 GAO report

ASDE-X STARS CPDLC WAAS LAAS(GBAS)

ConOpsTo

Commisioning(years) 10

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TMA

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Flights

Altitude prediction error, ft

Mean = 240 ftσ = 2100 ftn = 1636

Vertical Trajectory Prediction Errors

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Flights

Altitude prediction error, ft

Mean = 240 ftσ = 2100 ftn = 1636

Vertical Trajectory Prediction Errors

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Trajectory Prediction Errors

8400 ft

43,000 ft

46,000 ft

Current uncertainty in 5 mins

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Trajectory Prediction Errors

8400 ft

43,000 ft

46,000 ft

Likely required uncertainty in 5 mins

30,000 ft

30,000 ft

1000 ft

Current uncertainty in 5 mins

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Summary

• Accurate trajectory prediction sustained key past contributions

• Present research has wide coverage, with separation assurance and traffic flow management being the top two thrusts

• We need to enable more first-look operational evaluations to meet the NextGen objectives

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