A partnership involving: University of South Carolina University of Maryland Center for...

A partnership involving:

University of South CarolinaUniversity of Maryland Center for Environmental Science

SC Department of Health and Environmental ControlNOAA Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research

NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserve SystemNC/SC RCOOS

SECOORAIOOS

Coastal Zone 2011 - US IOOS: Tracking Water Quality

Chicago, IL 20 July 2011

Regional Water Quality Concerns at the Local Level:

The Role of Regional Associations in Improving Public Health Decision Making

• Setting the stage

• Water quality concerns

• Implications of swimming advisories

• Beach advisory modeling

• Outcomes of integrative efforts

Outline:



Setting the stage



• State health agencies sample water quality (Enterococcus) at ocean beaches

• Results used to inform public of potential health risk

• Time from sample to analysis to decision can be > 24hrs Marissa Reilly, DHEC Region 7Marissa Reilly, DHEC Region 7

In response to water quality concerns and associated public health concerns

Setting the stage



Swimming advisories are issued if Enterococcus Enterococcus levelslevels

• >500 MPN/100mL– Issue advisory

• >104 MPN/100mL – Resample

Today’s advisory is based on Today’s advisory is based on yesterday’s water qualityyesterday’s water quality

Setting the stage



Implications of swimming advisories• Error of commission• Issue advisory when water quality is good• Poor image / revenue loss (i.e. the Chamber of

Commerce is not happy)

• Error of omission• Fail to issue advisory when water quality is

poor• Public health risk

Beach advisory modeling



A potential improvement offered up to public health officials was that

• Enterococcus concentrations can be predicted with an accuracy adequate to assist decision-makers in the preemptive advisory process




Perceived bottlenecks preventing prediction or timely response to critical public health and environmental events:

• Access and integrated use of distributed, heterogeneous data

• Insufficient density of appropriate data observations

• Insufficient predictive model development

Model complexity is dependent upon

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3Cumulative Rainfall

Rain Intensity

Preceding Dry Days

Weather

Tidal Range

Lunar Phase

Station

Cumulative Rainfall

Rain Intensity

Preceding Dry Days

Weather

Tidal Range

Lunar Phase

Station

Wind Speed

Wind Direction

Cumulative Rainfall

Rain Intensity

Preceding Dry Days

Weather

Tidal Range

Lunar Phase

Station

Wind Speed

Wind Direction

Current

Salinity




• Location• Availability of data• Acceptable error

Modeling techniques• MLR• CART• Ensemble models

Level 1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

NMB2 NMB3 MB1 MB2 MB3 MB4 SS GC

Level 2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Level 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


% Type I Error (i.e. upsetting the Chamber of Commerce)% Type I Error (i.e. upsetting the Chamber of Commerce)% Type II Error (i.e. potential for increased health risks)% Type II Error (i.e. potential for increased health risks)




Focusing on error assessment

• Models are now being used in support of issuing beach advisories

• Decreased decision error• Increased support from local government• Improved public health protection

• One of first/few marine/Enterococcus models

• One of first to use CART models




~ 14km!




Outcomes of integrative efforts

• Improving understanding of the role of technologies in addressing priority environmental and public health issues

• New observation infrastructure of additional real-time, continuous observations

• Improved knowledge of the data that exist to address coastal zone management issues in the region

• Rapid access to local data for managers, researchers, and the public via the interactive website

• Development of inter-agency “rapid response” efforts addressing priority health and management issues

• Improved coordination and communication among diverse, complimentary group of coastal agencies and organizations supporting proactive efforts rather than reactive response



Acknowledgements

• USC – Madilyn Fletcher, Dwayne Porter, Dan Ramage, Jay Poucher, Jeremy Cothran, Jeff Jefferson, James Hibbert, Virginia Shervette, Emily McDonald, Erica Johnson

• Raytheon, Inc. – Carroll Hood

• University of Maryland – Heath Kelsey

• SCDHEC – Shannon Berry, Sean Torrens

• UNCW – Lynn Leonard, Jen Dorton

• Partners - NC/SC RCOOS, NI-WB NERR, NC NERR, ACE Basin NERR, SECOORA

• Funding: NOAA Geodetic Surveys and Services and SECOORA



A partnership involving: University of South Carolina University of Maryland Center for...

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