A PART OF OUR FUTUREenergia2020.fc.ul.pt/energia2020/apresentacoes/Eleni_Despotou_Ene… · PV...
Transcript of A PART OF OUR FUTUREenergia2020.fc.ul.pt/energia2020/apresentacoes/Eleni_Despotou_Ene… · PV...
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ELENI DESPOTOUDEPUTY SECRETARY GENERAL
Lisbon, 8 February 2010
A PART OF OUR FUTURE
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Overview
1. Who’s EPIA ?
2. Competitiveness of PV
3. Impact on Regional Development
4. Solar Europe Industry Initiative
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Created in 1985
More than 208 members
Represents the whole value chain of the Photovoltaic Industry
Secretariat in Brussels - 17 people in 2009
8 Board members elected for 4 years
Who is EPIA?
EPIA is the world's largest industry association devoted to
the solar electricity market.
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EPIA and its members
• Silicon feedstock: Wacker, REC, DC Chemical…• Wafers and Ingots: Crystalox, Scanwafer, Pillar, Podolsky, PV Silicon…• Cells: Q-Cells, BP Solar, Isofoton, Shell Solar, SolarWorld, Sharp…• Modules: Aleo, Schott Solar, Photowatt, Suntech Power…• Systems: Tenesol, Naps Systems, Conergy, Phoenix …• Inverters: KACO, SMA, Sputnik, Sunways, Fronius…• Cabling: Multi-contact…• Equipment and services: AMAT, Centrotherm, Oerlikon, Stangl, IB Vogt, M+W Zander, Vesuvius…
EPIA represents 95% of the European photovoltaic industry,
and 80% of the global photovoltaic industry world-wide
Total Turnover of EPIA members (2008): ~14.000 M€
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Skylights
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Finite resources
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Climate Change
1. Depending on the energy mix replaced by PV, each kWh
generated can save up to 900g of CO2 (coal fired power
plants).
2. 12% of PV electricity in Europe by 2020 can save up to
220 millions metric tons of CO2 each year.
Munich, 28/10/2009 TITLE OF THE PRESENTATION
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Overview
1. Who’s EPIA ?
2. PV Market Outlook
3. Competitiveness of PV
4. Impact on Regional Development
5. Solar Europe Industry Initiative
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PV represented 19% of new EU capacity installations in 2008
Source: Platts, EPIA, EWEA
Source: Platts, EPIA, EWEA
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EU vs. Global
Source: EPIA, 2009
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European annual PV market Outlook until 2013 (Policy-Driven scenario)
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Historical development of Global Cumulative PV power installed per Region
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2009 AND 2010 ESTIMATES
Country Market figure 2009 Market figure 2010 CommentsGermany 2.7- 3.0 GW 2 GW – 3GW Possible changes in
policy in 2010
Italy 400 – 500 MW 600 MW EPIA estimates
France 200 – 280 MW 450 – 600 MW 2009: with off-grid systems.
Belgium 320 MW
Spain 60 - 100 MW 400 MW EPIA+ASIF estimates
Czech Rep. 420 MW 1-2 GW If FiT law remains as it is
Greece 66 MW Law under preparation
USA 400 MW (240 MW CA) > 600MW SEIA estimates
Japan 400 MW 100 - 400MW Unclear policy for 2010.
China 100– 460 MW 380 - 1 GW Various sources indicates various results
Total World ~ 6 GW 7-9 GW Source: Pv-tech, EPIA
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PV observatory
1. Market Comparison2. Financial Support schemes3. Administrative barriers4. Grid Connection
Munich, 28/10/2009 TITLE OF THE PRESENTATION
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Overview
1. Who’s EPIA ?
2. PV Market Outlook
3. Competitiveness of PV
4. Impact on Regional Development
5. Solar Europe Industry Initiative
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Indicative
0
50
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2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
3 PV deployment scenarios in Europe1
GW
p
PV deployment scenarios in Europe1) (GWp )
1) Europe 27, Croatia, Norway and TurkeySources: EPIA, EU DG TREN “European Energy and Transport: trends to 2030, update 2007”, Eurostat Data Portal,
EU JRC Photovoltaic Geographical Information System, A.T. Kearney analysis
Asymptote without paradigm shift
Possible evolution after Paradigm Shift
Scenario 3Scenario 2Scenario 1
The Paradigm Shift requires significant changes in the
existing electricity system and at market and regulatory level,
together with a strong collaboration with other players in the energy
sector 12%
6%
4%
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3 PV deployment scenarios
1. Scenario 1) Baseline - 4% penetration: this PV penetration does not require changes to the existing electricity system, it requires full cooperation from the whole industry to achieve price reductions and the definition of a good market strategy
2. Scenario 2) Accelerated Growth - 6% penetration : this PV penetration requires minor changes to the existing electricity system, it requires the industry to optimize their Supply Chain, to cooperate with the Utilities on infrastructure changes and compelling product and service offering
3. Scenario 3) Paradigm Shift - 12% penetration: this PV penetration assumes important changes at market, regulatory and utility level, together with significant technology advancements in the electricity system, that free PV penetration from the risk of producing more electricity than the current system can absorb
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In order to sustain a large PV deployment, the PV industry will need to deliver between 70 and 160 GWp p.a. WW by 2020 depending on the scenario
Worldwide1 annual PV installation (GWp )
1)The analysis assumes 33% of cumulative installation by 2020 in Europe in the Baseline Scenario; 43% in Accelerated Growth Scenario; 55% in Paradigm Shift Sources: EPIA, A.T. Kearney analysis
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Overview of main Feed-in Tariff and Green certificate schemes in Europe
Country Main support scheme
Ground mounted
BIPV BAPV Duration Cap Cumulative PV Power installed (end 2008)
France FiT 0.32 - 0.43 0.60 0.32 - 0.43 20 - 87 MWGermany FiT 0.32 0.33 – 0.43 20 - 5,308 MWItaly FiT 0.35 – 0.39 0.43 – 0.48 0.39 - 0.43 20 1200 MW 430 MWSwitzerland FiT 0.30 - 0.40 0.38 - 0.56 0.37 - 0.46 25 16 Mio CHF 46 MWAustria FiT 0.30 - 0.46 10+1+1 3.3 MW/year 30 MW
Belgium GCBrussels: 0.15 - 0.65Wallonia: 0.15 - 0.63
Flanders: 0.45
Brussels 10Wallonia 15Flanders : 20
- 71 MW
Bulgaria FiT 0.38 - 0.42 25 - 1.4 MWCzeck Republic FiT 0.48 - 0.49 20 - 54 MW
Greece FiT 0.40 - 0.50 20 - 20 MWLuxembourg FiT 0.36 - 0.39 15 5MW 24 MWNetherlands FiT 0.29 15 15 MW (2009) 59 MWPortugal FiT 0.62 5+10 12 MW 68 MWRomania GC 0.11 – 0.22 10 0.45 MWSlovenia FiT 0.33 - 0.37 5+5+10 - 2.1 MW
Spain FiT 0.32 – 0.34 25 500 MW (2009) 3,137 MW
UK GC 0.03-0.06 lifetime 24.1 MW
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Overview
1. Who’s EPIA ?
2. Competitiveness of PV
3. Impact on Regional Development
4. Solar Europe Industry Initiative
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PV as a driver for regional development
1. Saxony Anhalt, DE
2. Puglia, IT
3. Poitou – Charentes, FR
4. Rhone Alpes, FR
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Employment
Ingots/WaferFeedstock/materials Solar cell Solar module BOS including Installation
• Physics• Chemists• Electronic Engineers• Production Engineers
• Installers• Retailers• Service Engineers
• Physics• Electronic Engineers• Production Engineers
Value Chain
Profiles needed
Mn FTE created1)
1) Does not take into account FTEs displaced in other industriesSources: Freiburg university PV employment study; EPIA Solar Generation V 2008; A.T. Kearney analysis
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Employment
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Overview
1. Who’s EPIA ?
2. Competitiveness of PV
3. Impact on Regional Development
4. Solar Europe Industry Initiative
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List of projects proposed for the SET Plan
1. EU Solar Cities: Large-scale integration of PV in urban areas
2. Gigawatt PV manufacturing (GigaFabs and accompanying pilots) and integral value chain management
3. Environmental sustainability of large-scale deployment of PV
4. Education in support of large-scale PV deployment, and public awareness
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2010PV electricity pricePV electricity price((€€ / kWh)/ kWh)
0.350.35
0.250.25
0.290.29
0.220.22
0.190.19
PV electricity prices
compared withexpected
consumerelectricity
prices(+ 1%/yr)
consumer electricity priceconsumer electricity price((€€ / kWh)/ kWh)
0.150.150.170.17
0.170.17
0.210.21
0.110.11
0.230.23
0.130.13
0.110.11
source: EUPVTP
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2015PV electricity pricePV electricity price((€€ / kWh)/ kWh)
0.250.25
0.180.18
0.210.21
0.160.16
0.140.14
PV electricity prices
compared withexpected
consumerelectricity
prices(+ 1%/yr)
consumer electricity priceconsumer electricity price((€€ / kWh)/ kWh)
0.160.160.180.18
0.180.18
0.220.22
0.110.11
0.240.24
0.130.13
0.120.12
source: ECN
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2020PV electricity pricePV electricity price((€€ / kWh)/ kWh)
0.200.20
0.140.14
0.170.17
0.130.13
0.110.11
PV electricity prices
compared withexpected
consumerelectricity
prices(+ 1%/yr)
consumer electricity priceconsumer electricity price((€€ / kWh)/ kWh)
0.160.160.190.19
0.190.19
0.230.23
0.120.12
0.260.26
0.140.14
0.120.12
source: ECN
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“Solar future is not about fashion, is about survival...”
N. Foster
www.epia.org
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www.epia.orgEleni Despotou Deputy Secretary [email protected]
Solar Electricity A Part of Our Future