A panorama of Brazil · 2017. 11. 13. · Source: Anuário do Mercado Imobiliário –...
Transcript of A panorama of Brazil · 2017. 11. 13. · Source: Anuário do Mercado Imobiliário –...
![Page 1: A panorama of Brazil · 2017. 11. 13. · Source: Anuário do Mercado Imobiliário – Inteligência de Mercado Lopes 13.3 5.2 2.7 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.90.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 3.4](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060810/608eff7f3e006a680d01751d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Politic, economic and real estate development By Flavio Amary, Secovi-SP incoming president Real estate market opportunities By Joaquim Ribeiro, Fenaci president
Miami, San Diego, November 2015
A panorama of Brazil The country and the real estate market
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• Democracy with stable institutions
• Independent and respected Judiciary
• Mild climate with almost no natural risks
• Foreign capital is welcome
• Most Fortune 500’s largest companies are in Brazil
Area → Population →
8.5 millions sq km 202 millions, 84% urban (2014)
Why do real estate business in Brazil?
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• Strong domestic market
• Reazonable prices
• Richness of natural assets
• Clean and abundant
renewable energy
• One of the biggest global
producers of agricultural and
mineral commodities
Why do real estate business in Brazil?
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2477 %
916 %
22%10% 5% 2%
9% 6% 8% 13% 9% 8% 5% 3% 4% 6% 4% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 10%
93 94 95 96 97 98 9920
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15*
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Source: IBGE
REAL economic plan
Inflation rates
* estimativa
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15*
6 12
22 35 36 40 30 26 19 26 30 32
50 72
54 79
102 84 86
62 42
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Foreign Direct Investment
Source: Brazilian Central Bank
US$ billion
* 2015 – until September
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0.5
0.52
0.54
0.56
0.58
0.6
Worse
Better
Gini Coefficient 1993 – 2013
A low Gini coefficient indicates more equal income or wealth distribution,
while a high Gini coefficient indicates more unequal distribution.
Source: Brazilian Central Bank / IBGE
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Brazil GDP – Annual Change
0.3%
4.4%
1.3%
3.1%
1.2%
5.7%
3.1% 4.0%
6.0% 5.0%
-‐0.2%
7.6%
3.9%
1.8% 2.7%
0.1%
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
FHC (2nd Mandate) Lula (1st Mandate) Lula (2nd Mandate) Dilma (1st Mandate)
2,25% Média anual de crescimento
3,5% 4,6% 2,13%
Source: BACEN
US$ 2,3 trillion in 2014,
7th largest world economy
Average annual growth
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Exchange rate – Commercial Dollar
R$ 1.96 R$ 2.32
R$ 3.53
R$ 2.89 R$ 2.65
R$ 2.34 R$ 2.14
R$ 1.77
R$ 2.34
R$ 1.74 R$ 1.67
R$ 1.88 R$ 2.04
R$ 2.35 R$ 2.71
R$ 3.86
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Average Unemployment Rate
Source: IBGE
11.5%
4.8%
6.70%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Taxa de Desemprego Unemployment rate
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Population by age group
Source: IBGE / Produced by: Abecip
Age group
Brazilians are buying their own home at an earlier age , especially those under 35 , who make up the majority of the population.
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Occupation condition of Permanent Private Households
74.8 69.9
4.9
17.7
7.1
74.5 69.4
5.1
17.9
7.2
Próprio Já Quitado Em Aquisição Alugado Cedido
2012 2013
In acquisition
In %
Em 2013, eram 65,1 milhões de domicílios
Source: IBGE
In 2013, were 65,1 millions households
Own Settled Rented Assigned
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Demand for New Houses
Source: IBGE / Produced by: Abecip
of all Brazilian families (11,7 million) pay rent. Total of families: 65,1 million
1 million marriages in 2012
348,000 divorces in 2012
Housing deficit 5,8 million of homes (2012)
Market
Potential
More than 10
years
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Middle Class Growth
96,2
65,9
69,6
100,3
Classe DE
Classe C
Classe B
Classe A
2003 2011
Total: 175 Millions Total: 195 Millions
Source: IPEA / PNAD (IBGE) – Produced by: Ministério da Fazenda
Recentemente o Brasil foi estabelecido como um país de classe média Mais de 50% da população pertence à classe média, com grande potencial de consumo
As classes mais ricas (A e B) também obRveram um rápido crescimento
6,4
7,0
10,5
11,2
65,9
96,2
100,3
69,6
Brazil was recently established as a middle-‐class country. More than 50% of the populaRon belongs to the middle class, with great potenRal for consumpRon
The wealthier classes (A and B) also achieved rapid growth
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Source: Anuário do Mercado Imobiliário – Inteligência de Mercado Lopes
13.3
5.2
2.7
1.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
3.4
Rio and S. Paulo 51% of total
US$ Billion
New houses – US$ launched 2013 per region
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Average price – M² of Private Area – June/2015
Source: CBIC/CII – Produced by: Secovi-SP Economics and Statistics Department
$1,951 $1,945
$1,615 $1,489 $1,481
$1,321 $1,145 $1,066
RM São Paulo
Rio de Janeiro
RM Fortaleza
RM Recife CuriRba Cuiabá Joinville RM Goiânia
Average = $ 1.502
*Exchange : 1 dollar = R$ 3,86
*Rio de Janeiro = Average price of releases of 2015 first half
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Lease Offices AA & A – São Paulo City
• Total inventory = 4,0 million of m²
• Net Absorption = 47.253 m²
• Vacancy rate = 22,5%
• Price Request = US$ 24/m²/month
2015 First Quarter
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
*Exchange : 1 dollar = R$ 3,86
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Industrial – Rental of High Standart Hangars - Brazil
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
• Total inventory = 24,7 million of m²
• Forecast of new inventory = 12,7 million m²
unRl 2017
• Vacancy rate= 11,0%
• Price request= US$ 5,42/m²/month
2014 Second Semester
Em 2014 foram entregues aproximadamente 1,9 milhões de m² no Brasil. Para 2015 está prevista a
entrega de 6 milhões de m². *Exchange : 1 dollar = R$ 3,86
In 2014 it was delivered approximately 1.9 million square meters in Brazil. For 2015 is planned delivery of 6 million square
meters .
New inventory delivered
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• Total inventory= 14,1 million of m²
• Vacancy rate= 13,5%
• Price request= US$ 5,62/m²/month
De 2015 a 2017 é esperado que o estado receba em torno de 7 milhões de m², concentrados principalmente nos eixos rodoviários Anhanguera-‐Bandeirantes,
Dom Pedro I e Castelo Branco.
Industrial – Rental of High Standart Hangars State of São Paulo
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
From 2015 to 2017 it is expected that the state receives about 7 million
square meters , concentrated mainly on highways Anhanguera -
Bandeirantes , Dom Pedro I and Castelo Branco
Future stretch
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Shoppings Malls - Brazil
351 363 376 392 408 430 457 495 520 527 7.5 8.3 8.6 9.1 9.5 10.3 11.4
12.9 13.8 14.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
Número de Shoppings ABL (MILHÕES DE M2)
Source: ABRASCE
* Until 2015 July
(million square meters) Number of malls
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Thank you!
www.secovi.com.br
Flavio Amary incoming president