A Note on

Somalia ECON 3510June 12, 2014

Some History: A Timeline9000 BC: earliest recorded habitation (cave

paintings)3000 BC: domestication of the camel800 BC- 400 AD: trade role with Phoenicia,

Ancient Egypt, Crete, Greece, Roman Empire700 AD Muslim conquest of region; – Mogadishu becomes the major Muslim capital in

the region– Trade role continued– Tolerance with Ethiopia maintained

Series of Empires in the region

1885 Berlin Conference: – Italy awarded the region; – begin attempts at control and colonization– Somalis resist fiercely

1925, Italians invade; bitter conflict, 1927 victory– British take “Somaliland” in north, after conflict;– French awarded Djibouti

1940: Italians conquer British Somaliland1941: British defeat Italians– British “martial law” to 1945;

1949-1959: 10 year Trusteeship to Italy – Prosperity in the 1950s

1960 Independence

1960 Independence

Problem Issues: –North-South divide;–Ogaden issue with Ethiopia–Somali territory in Kenya–Language difficulties (English. Italian. Somali

dialects plus numerous scripts for Somali language)

Cold War Complications:–Links with Russia and China

1968: Coup d’Etat; Siad Barre takes presidency

–”Supreme Revolutionary Council”–“Scientific Socialism” combining Marx

and Islam;–Personality cult–Language reform

1977: Ogaden War with Ethiopia• Somalia over-ran Ogaden desert • USSR switched sides; Soviet, Cuban & N.

Korean Assistance support Ethiopian re-capture of Ogaden; • USA supported Somalia

1970 to 1990: serious economic problems• Due to war and policy stupidities• Barre lost any support;

1980s: civil conflict 1991:Barre overthrown;

Somaliland declared Independence;

1993: UN Peacekeeping force established To support provision of humanitarian aid

1995“Black Hawk Down”, Battle of Mogadishu

US and UN leave Somalia

1998: Puntland declared independence

2002: Southwestern Somaliland declared “autonomy”

1981-2006: Collapse of Centralized Governmental Authority

2006-2011: “Islamic Courts Union” or ICU takes control• “Sharia law”…..

2008-June 2009: “Transitional Federal Parliament”

• TFP control: limited area shrinking to Mogadishu by 2009• 2008-Jan 2009: Ethiopian Army invades to

support TFP• African Union send peacekeepers (Ghana and

Burundi)

June 2009: TFP appears to be in desperation, with only weeks left to survive

Shabab poised to take power? 1990-2014: Somalia essentially without a

government

Insurgents Side: Islamic Courts Union

Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somaliaal-Shabaab (meaning :Youth”)Ras Kamboni BrigadesJabhatul IslamiyaMuaskar Anole

Alleged:Al-Qaeda and other foreign mujahideenOgaden National Liberation Front Eritrea

Transitional Federal Government

EthiopiaAfrican UnionPuntlandGalmudugpro-Ethiopian warlordsAfrican Union Mission to SomaliaUN

United StatesUgandaBurundiKenya

Basic Information on SomaliaNote: Most information is not available for Somalia. Here is some of what is available.

Population: 9.1 million (2012)Population Growth Rate: 2.8 % per annum

(Doubling every 25 years)

Fertility Rate (2007) 6.8 children per womanMaternal Mortality: 1,400 per 100,000 live births

African average: 900

Life Expectancy: 48 years (2007)Official Development Assistance (2005): $US 236.4 million

ODA per capita: $US 28.7

No. 1 on the “Failed States Index” for five years running

Economy during the Civil Chaos

• OK in the north (Somaliland)• Continuing disruption in the south• Continues clicking over;

Informal economy completely;• Current Dependence on Food Aid to prevent

death from famine;• Major cash infusions from ransoms and

remittances

2011-2012: famine in Somalia plus NE areas of Kenya and Ogaden region of Ethiopia–3.5 million at risk;– El Shabab prohibited UN and other and

providers to enter the stricken areas– Early warning signs for famine again

present

Nutritional Situation February 2014,