Slide 1

A new tool for modelling the public health impacts of transport policiesJames WoodcockUniversity of Cambridge24/01/2012

Centre for Diet and Activity Research1Where does modelling fit?

Centre for Diet and Activity ResearchHealth impact modelling is important because each empirical study can only go so farCan often only observe changes in exposure not health outcomes- & changing some peoples behaviour will different effects than othersMay only observe some exposures related to healthTrade offs between risks & benefits may vary by context2Where does modelling fit?

Centre for Diet and Activity ResearchWould also argue modelling can be used at an earlier stage- and this is where my modelling started out. If we can answer what if questions- what would happen to health if transport was like this- then we can provide evidence on whether it is worth looking for interventions to change behaviours.3ITHIM

Centre for Diet and Activity ResearchIntegrated Transport and Health Impact Modelling Tool- ITHIMIncludes physical activity, where all existing studies suggest largest health effect could be achievedBut includes air pollution & RTIs- potential adverse eventsLinks to ghgFor physical activity & air pollution use comparative risk assessment methodFor injuries use a risk & distance based approach4

ITHIMCentre for Diet and Activity ResearchSpreadsheet modelling tool but new versions in other packages are being createdScenario specificationCalculation of change in exposuresCalculation of change in health outcomesNext applications of ITHIM

5California Bay Area

Maizlish N, Woodcock J, Co S, Ostro B, Fanai A, Farley D. Health Co-Benefits and Transportation-Related Reductions in Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Bay Area: Technical Report. California Department of Public Health, November 2011.Centre for Diet and Activity ResearchCollaborating with California Public Health Dept and Regional transportation departments for modelling of scenarios for Bay Area.6England & Wales Scenarios

Centre for Diet and Activity ResearchAs part of Visions 2030 project modelled a series of scenarios for urban areas in England & Wales outside London.

72030: A Typical English Street?

Centre for Diet and Activity ResearchVisions 2030 produced visualisations for 4 scenarios for 2030. Here we see the imagined futures for a typical urban English terrace street. Moving from the top left with a situation similar to the present To the top right- current best practice informed by data from the NetherlandsTo the bottom left very high public transport and low car useTo the bottom right very high walking and cycling and low car use

8

BaselineVision 3Vision 2Vision 1Median:9 minMedian:14 minMedian:19 minMedian:30 minPhysical Activity Exposure ModellingCentre for Diet and Activity ResearchHeart of how ITHIM represents changes in population physical activity exposure isgoing from mean time spent walking & cycling to log normal distributionsCompare quintiles of active travel time per week under each scenario for each age group & both sexes- that is separate distributions- age & sex specific walking & cycling ratios to reference groupBecause it matters who is doing the activityDistributions become more normally shaped as we move from top left to bottom rightIn practice we assumed that the coefficient of variation falls as the population becomes more active. This is backed by empirical data from NlWalking & cycling different intensity depending on speed combined as MET hours per week. 9Dose Response Relationship: CVD

Derived from Hamer et al Br J Sports Med 2008;42:238-243Centre for Diet and Activity ResearchGoes beyond previous tools such as HEAT in that it uses 10 b p m c d h Bicyclebkbb kbp kbm kbc kbd kbb Pedestrianpkpbkpp .. . . Motorbikem kmbkmp kmm . . . Carckcbetc .. . .Busdkdb . .. . . HGV h khb . .. . .NOVnkb . .. . . Striking VehicleInjured partyRoad Traffic Injury Modelling MethodsCentre for Diet and Activity ResearchWe built on the approach developed by Bhalla to represent injury risk. We created an injury risk matrix for both cities based on the collisions between each kind of road user and fatality data. We estimated the change in distance travelled by each kind of road user.Also includes speed based model

Centre for Diet and Activity ResearchRTIs particularly important as danger is barrier to activity12Methods developmentMultiple health pathwaysPhysical activity:Age specific distributionsNon-linear dose-response relationshipMorbidity not just mortality

Injuries:Sensitivity to motor vehicle volumeInclusion of speed

Centre for Diet and Activity ResearchCompared with earlier modelling tools, such as HEAT more sophisticated in an number of ways

The injury model is also more sophisticated than other methods that are widely used

13England & Wales Results

Centre for Diet and Activity ResearchPhysical activity larger effect than injuries or air pollution (consistent finding)Injuries can go down (although other scenarios they go up)Sensitivity analysis shows largest uncertainty is on dose response relationship between physical activity and health outcomes

14Impact

Centre for Diet and Activity ResearchDecisions on climate change mitigation do not consider health- WHO commitment to change that.US collaborations- with California Public Health Department & Regional transportation departments- discussing links to Regional Transport demand models, evaluation of housing policies- location of social housing for impact on accessibility and health, assessment of impact of policies on inequalitiesTesting tool with public & policy makers. Tfl & plans for working with public health planners and local authorities in east of England. Use of ITHIM in Portland, Oregon.

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Modelling Geographical VariationCentre for Diet and Activity ResearchBut as well as hypothetical futures can also be used to look at the impact of differences between placesWill be comparing what impact of travel patterns are on health and ghg comparing these settings

16

Modelling PoliciesCentre for Diet and Activity ResearchHealth impact modelling tools can also be used for modelling policies. We will be using ITHIM to model the public health impact of the Barclays hire bikes.17Next Steps

Centre for Diet and Activity ResearchContinuing to apply model to policies and comparative data from different settingsInjury risk analysis- safety in numbers in practiceVersion in languages R & Analytica- more robust methods &User friendly interfacesComplex system models- agent based model using NetLogo18

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

This work was undertaken by the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), a UKCRC Public Health Research Centre of Excellence.

Funding from the British Heart Foundation, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research, and the Wellcome Trust, under the auspices of the UK Clinical Research Collaboration, is gratefully acknowledged.

In addition acknowledge support from the California Public Health Department and Visions 2030 Walking and Cycling Project (EPSRC funded)

Centre for Diet and Activity Research19Dose Response ARR:Impact on CVD

Centre for Diet and Activity ResearchVision 320Chart126.1751960.625147.45778.355258.95419.2781.6257284.1445.5

InjuriesPhysical ActivityAir pollutionDALYs per 10^6 population

dalys by visionDALYs per millionBaselineVision 1Vision 2Vision 3021346457851185370258260340449no air pol79472241492322629Ischemic Heart DiseaseStrokeDementiaDiabetesDepressionBreast CancerColon Cancer00-121601.493885595-67033.2988851478-36651.7079793626-26259.7931792739-18050.7860169345-10093.4329021968-7476.4360251176Vision 3Air pollutionInjuriesPhysical Activity25985844678272841782031265291364Vision 1Air pollutionInjuriesPhysical Activitytotal5898104778425Health Impacts by Scenario and pathway per million populationper million147261961Air pollutionInjuriesPhysical ActivityTotal Burden %Vision 1147261961Vision 24197785259Vision 34467827284Vision 1Vision 2Vision 3Injuries26778782Physical Activity196152597284Air pollution147419446CaliforniaBest PracticeShort TripsCarbon GoalInjuries-403-440-783Physical Activity217735445656Air pollution71013Vision 2total1676831134210358per million4197785259

dalys by vision

DALYs saved per million population in 1 year

IHD

DALYs saved per million population in 1 year

injuries

injureis example

DALYs saved per million population in 1 year

made up

DALYs saved per million population in 1 year

mortality

InjuriesPhysical ActivityAir pollutionDALYs per 10^6 population

InjuriesPhysical ActivityAir pollution

InjuriesPhysical ActivityAir pollutionDALYs per 10^6 population

CVD2.5 hours0.8101.000.050.950.10.930.150.920.20.910.250.900.30.890.350.880.40.870.450.870.50.860.550.850.60.850.650.840.70.840.750.830.80.830.850.820.90.820.950.8110.811.050.801.10.801.150.801.20.791.250.791.30.781.350.781.40.781.450.771.50.771.550.771.60.761.650.761.70.761.750.751.80.751.850.751.90.751.950.7420.742.050.742.10.732.150.732.20.732.250.732.30.722.350.722.40.722.450.722.50.712.550.712.60.712.650.712.70.702.750.702.80.702.850.702.90.702.950.6930.693.050.693.10.693.150.683.20.683.250.683.30.683.350.683.40.673.450.673.50.673.550.673.60.673.650.673.70.663.750.663.80.663.850.663.90.663.950.6540.654.050.654.10.654.150.654.20.654.250.644.30.644.350.644.40.644.450.644.50.644.550.634.60.634.650.634.70.634.750.634.80.634.850.624.90.624.950.6250.625.050.625.10.625.150.625.20.615.250.615.30.615.350.615.40.615.450.615.50.615.550.605.60.605.650.605.70.605.750.605.80.605.850.605.90.605.950.5960.596.050.596.10.596.150.596.20.596.250.596.30.596.350.586.40.586.450.586.50.586.550.586.60.586.650.586.70.586.750.576.80.576.850.576.90.576.950.5770.577.050.577.10.577.150.567.20.567.250.567.30.567.350.567.40.567.450.567.50.567.550.567.60.567.650.557.70.557.750.557.80.557.850.557.90.557.950.5580.558.050.558.10.548.150.548.20.548.250.548.30.548.350.548.40.548.450.548.50.548.550.548.60.538.650.538.70.538.750.538.80.538.850.538.90.538.950.5390.539.050.539.10.539.150.529.20.529.250.529.30.529.350.529.40.529.450.529.50.529.550.529.60.529.650.529.70.519.750.519.80.519.850.519.90.519.950.51100.51

Hours per Week of Low/Moderate Intensity Physical ActivityRR for Ischemic Heart Disease

FatalitiesSerious InjuriesBaseline3RRBaseline3RRWalk3722721426226521Bike553035140251004Bus102122144352Car38242043054090Freight352612802001Motorbike14172124649910Mobility Scooter052268914total99574111293398771FatalitiesSerious InjuriesBaseline1RRBaseline1RRwalk3723661426242171cycle551723140240163bus101622143522car3822671430530601HGV203411191121mbike141881246414811elec bike0296467total995947112933134421FatalitiesSerious InjuriesBaseline2RRBaseline2RRwalk3722661426224901cycle551853140230862bus103332147043car38253043055010HGV203511191161mbike14168024649070elec bike03146549total99564211293380001FatalitiesSerious InjuriesBaseline123Baseline123walk3723662662724262421724902652cycle551721853031402401630865100bus10163321214352704435car382267534243053060501409HGV20343526119112116200mbike14188687224641481907991elec bike02356465489total995947642741129331344280009877Scaling factor195%64%74%Reduction in diameter1.1286652961.10078386880.90641897180.9736927842%98%80%86%Injuries disease burden123adjusting for age5%-42%-29%not adjusting for age-3%-36%-26%

Risk0.2Saftey in no0.5CyclistsInjuriesCarsCyclistsCarsInjuries00.02626507.211.02626497.121.42626487.131.82626477.042.02626466.952.32626456.862.52626446.872.72626436.782.92626426.693.12626416.5103.22626406.4113.42626396.4123.52626386.3133.72626376.2143.82626366.1153.92626356.0164.12626345.9174.22626335.9184.32626325.8194.42626315.7204.62626305.6214.72626295.5224.82626285.4234.92626275.3245.02626265.2255.12626255.1265.22626245.0275.32626234.9285.42626224.8295.52626214.7305.62626204.6315.72626194.4325.82626184.3335.92626174.2345.92626164.1356.02626153.9366.12626143.8376.22626133.7386.32626123.5396.42626113.4406.42626103.2416.5262693.1426.6262682.9436.7262672.7446.8262662.5456.8262652.3466.9262642.0477.0262631.8487.1262621.4497.1262611.0507.2262600.0

InjuriesCyclist KmsCyclist FatalityCyclist fatalites- cars kms held constant

InjuriesCar KmsCyclist FatalityCyclist fatalites- cyclist kms held constant

InjuriesCar KmsCyclist FatalityCyclist fatalites- cyclist kms held constant

RiskSafety factorCar- Bike0.270.5Car- Car0.080.5Bike Bike0.04Annual safety0%Annual ped reduction-3%Annual safetyYearC- MwayCarBikeTotal InjuriesCar- CarBike-BikeCar-Bike% distance by car1.001950005020.02.00.00%1.00195100.55030.02.01.31%1.001952014940.12.01.92%1.00195301.54940.11.92.33%1.001954024850.21.92.64%1.00195502.54850.21.92.95%1.001956034750.21.93.26%1.00195703.54760.31.93.47%1.001958044660.31.83.78%1.00195904.54660.41.83.99%1.001960054560.41.84.110%1.0019610.55.54560.41.84.211%1.001962164470.51.84.412%1.00196326.54470.51.74.513%1.001964374370.61.74.714%1.00196547.54370.61.74.815%1.001966584270.61.74.916%1.00196768.54270.71.75.117%1.001968794180.71.65.218%1.00196989.54180.81.65.319%1.0019709104080.81.65.420%1.0019711010.54080.81.65.521%1.00197211113980.91.65.622%1.0019731111.53980.91.55.723%1.00197411123881.01.55.824%1.0019751212.53881.01.55.825%1.00197613133781.01.55.926%1.0019771413.53791.11.56.027%1.00197815143691.11.46.128%1.0019791614.53691.21.46.129%1.00198017153591.21.46.230%1.00198115.53591.21.46.231%1.001982163491.31.46.332%1.00198316.53491.31.36.333%1.001984173391.41.36.434%1.00198517.53391.41.36.435%1.001986183291.41.36.536%1.00198718.53291.51.36.537%1.001988193191.51.26.638%1.00198919.53191.61.26.639%1.001990203091.61.26.640%1.00199120.53091.61.26.641%1.0019922129101.71.26.742%1.00199321.529101.71.16.743%1.0019942228101.81.16.744%1.00199522.528101.81.16.745%1.0019962327101.81.16.746%1.00199723.527101.91.16.747%1.0019982426101.91.06.748%1.00199924.526102.01.06.749%1.0020002525102.01.06.850%1.00200125.525102.01.06.751%1.0020022624102.11.06.752%1.00200326.524102.10.96.753%1.0020042723102.20.96.754%1.00200527.523102.20.96.755%1.0020062822102.20.96.756%1.00200728.522102.30.96.757%1.0020082921102.30.86.758%1.00200929.521102.40.86.659%1.0020103020102.40.86.660%1.00201130.520102.40.86.661%1.0020123119102.50.86.662%1.00201331.519102.50.76.563%1.0020143218102.60.76.564%1.00201532.518102.60.76.465%1.0020163317102.60.76.466%1.00201733.517102.70.76.367%1.0020183416102.70.66.368%1.00201934.516102.80.66.269%1.0020203515102.80.66.270%1.00202135.515102.80.66.171%1.0020223614102.90.66.172%1.00202336.51492.90.56.073%1.002024371393.00.55.974%1.00202537.51393.00.55.875%1.002026381293.00.55.876%1.00202738.51293.10.55.777%1.002028391193.10.45.678%1.00202939.51193.20.45.579%1.002030401093.20.45.480%1.00203140.51093.20.45.381%1.00203241993.30.45.282%1.00203341.5993.30.35.183%1.00203442893.40.34.984%1.00203542.5893.40.34.885%1.00203643783.40.34.786%1.00203743.5783.50.34.587%1.00203844683.50.24.488%1.00203944.5683.60.24.289%1.00204045583.60.24.190%1.00204145.5583.60.23.991%1.00204246483.70.23.792%1.00204346.5473.70.13.493%1.00204447373.80.13.294%1.00204547.5373.80.12.995%1.00204648273.80.12.696%1.00204748.5263.90.12.397%1.00204849163.90.01.998%1.00204949.5154.00.01.399%1.00205050044.00.00.0100%

% of Distance by CarInjuries: Illustrative Values

9%0.2510%cubic splines13%0.37514%log16%sqrt31%linear

Chart10.090.10.130.140.160.31

Percentage reduction in CVD

dalys by visionDALYs per millionBaselineVision 1Vision 2Vision 3014894677604559563187086241799Ischemic Heart DiseaseStrokeDementiaDiabetesDepressionBreast CancerColon Cancer00-121601.493885595-67033.2988851478-36651.7079793626-26259.7931792739-18050.7860169345-10093.4329021968-7476.4360251176Vision 3Air pollutionInjuriesPhysical Activity25985833443255031334017275220134Vision 1Air pollutionInjuriesPhysical Activitytotal3082-295447150Health Impacts by Scenario and pathway per million populationper million77-741179Air pollutionInjuriesPhysical ActivityTotal Burden %Vision 177-7411790.7%Vision 226663039552.1%Vision 333443255032.8%Vision 2total1063525199158184per million2666303955

dalys by vision

DALYs saved per million population in 1 year

IHD

DALYs saved per million population in 1 year

injuries

injureis example

DALYs saved per million population in 1 year

made up

DALYs saved per million population in 1 year

mortalityCVD2.5 hours0.8101.000.050.950.10.930.150.920.20.910.250.900.30.890.350.880.40.870.450.870.50.860.550.850.60.850.650.840.70.840.750.830.80.830.850.820.90.820.950.8110.811.050.801.10.801.150.801.20.791.250.791.30.781.350.781.40.781.450.771.50.771.550.771.60.761.650.761.70.761.750.751.80.751.850.751.90.751.950.7420.742.050.742.10.732.150.732.20.732.250.732.30.722.350.722.40.722.450.722.50.712.550.712.60.712.650.712.70.702.750.702.80.702.850.702.90.702.950.6930.693.050.693.10.693.150.683.20.683.250.683.30.683.350.683.40.673.450.673.50.673.550.673.60.673.650.673.70.663.750.663.80.663.850.663.90.663.950.6540.654.050.654.10.654.150.654.20.654.250.644.30.644.350.644.40.644.450.644.50.644.550.634.60.634.650.634.70.634.750.634.80.634.850.624.90.624.950.6250.625.050.625.10.625.150.625.20.615.250.615.30.615.350.615.40.615.450.615.50.615.550.605.60.605.650.605.70.605.750.605.80.605.850.605.90.605.950.5960.596.050.596.10.596.150.596.20.596.250.596.30.596.350.586.40.586.450.586.50.586.550.586.60.586.650.586.70.586.750.576.80.576.850.576.90.576.950.5770.577.050.577.10.577.150.567.20.567.250.567.30.567.350.567.40.567.450.567.50.567.550.567.60.567.650.557.70.557.750.557.80.557.850.557.90.557.950.5580.558.050.558.10.548.150.548.20.548.250.548.30.548.350.548.40.548.450.548.50.548.550.548.60.538.650.538.70.538.750.538.80.538.850.538.90.538.950.5390.539.050.539.10.539.150.529.20.529.250.529.30.529.350.529.40.529.450.529.50.529.550.529.60.529.650.529.70.519.750.519.80.519.850.519.90.519.950.51100.51

mortality

Hours per Week of Low/Moderate Intensity Physical ActivityRR for Ischemic Heart Disease

FatalitiesSerious InjuriesBaseline3RRBaseline3RRWalk3722721426226521Bike553035140251004Bus102122144352Car38242043054090Freight352612802001Motorbike14172124649910Mobility Scooter052268914total99574111293398771FatalitiesSerious InjuriesBaseline1RRBaseline1RRwalk3723661426242171cycle551723140240163bus101622143522car3822671430530601HGV203411191121mbike141881246414811elec bike0296467total995947112933134421FatalitiesSerious InjuriesBaseline2RRBaseline2RRwalk3722661426224901cycle551853140230862bus103332147043car38253043055010HGV203511191161mbike14168024649070elec bike03146549total99564211293380001FatalitiesSerious InjuriesBaseline123Baseline123walk3723662662724262421724902652cycle551721853031402401630865100bus10163321214352704435car382267534243053060501409HGV20343526119112116200mbike14188687224641481907991elec bike02356465489total995947642741129331344280009877Scaling factor195%64%74%Reduction in diameter1.1286652961.10078386880.90641897180.9736927842%98%80%86%Injuries disease burden123adjusting for age5%-42%-29%not adjusting for age-3%-36%-26%

Risk0.2Saftey in no0.5CyclistsInjuriesCarsCyclistsCarsInjuries00.02626507.211.02626497.121.42626487.131.82626477.042.02626466.952.32626456.862.52626446.872.72626436.782.92626426.693.12626416.5103.22626406.4113.42626396.4123.52626386.3133.72626376.2143.82626366.1153.92626356.0164.12626345.9174.22626335.9184.32626325.8194.42626315.7204.62626305.6214.72626295.5224.82626285.4234.92626275.3245.02626265.2255.12626255.1265.22626245.0275.32626234.9285.42626224.8295.52626214.7305.62626204.6315.72626194.4325.82626184.3335.92626174.2345.92626164.1356.02626153.9366.12626143.8376.22626133.7386.32626123.5396.42626113.4406.42626103.2416.5262693.1426.6262682.9436.7262672.7446.8262662.5456.8262652.3466.9262642.0477.0262631.8487.1262621.4497.1262611.0507.2262600.0

InjuriesCyclist KmsCyclist FatalityCyclist fatalites- cars kms held constant

InjuriesCar KmsCyclist FatalityCyclist fatalites- cyclist kms held constant

InjuriesCar KmsCyclist FatalityCyclist fatalites- cyclist kms held constant

RiskSafety factorCar- Bike0.270.5Car- Car0.080.5Bike Bike0.04Annual safety0%Annual ped reduction-3%Annual safetyYearC- MwayCarBikeTotal InjuriesCar- CarBike-BikeCar-Bike% distance by car1.001950005020.02.00.00%1.00195100.55030.02.01.31%1.001952014940.12.01.92%1.00195301.54940.11.92.33%1.001954024850.21.92.64%1.00195502.54850.21.92.95%1.001956034750.21.93.26%1.00195703.54760.31.93.47%1.001958044660.31.83.78%1.00195904.54660.41.83.99%1.001960054560.41.84.110%1.0019610.55.54560.41.84.211%1.001962164470.51.84.412%1.00196326.54470.51.74.513%1.001964374370.61.74.714%1.00196547.54370.61.74.815%1.001966584270.61.74.916%1.00196768.54270.71.75.117%1.001968794180.71.65.218%1.00196989.54180.81.65.319%1.0019709104080.81.65.420%1.0019711010.54080.81.65.521%1.00197211113980.91.65.622%1.0019731111.53980.91.55.723%1.00197411123881.01.55.824%1.0019751212.53881.01.55.825%1.00197613133781.01.55.926%1.0019771413.53791.11.56.027%1.00197815143691.11.46.128%1.0019791614.53691.21.46.129%1.00198017153591.21.46.230%1.00198115.53591.21.46.231%1.001982163491.31.46.332%1.00198316.53491.31.36.333%1.001984173391.41.36.434%1.00198517.53391.41.36.435%1.001986183291.41.36.536%1.00198718.53291.51.36.537%1.001988193191.51.26.638%1.00198919.53191.61.26.639%1.001990203091.61.26.640%1.00199120.53091.61.26.641%1.0019922129101.71.26.742%1.00199321.529101.71.16.743%1.0019942228101.81.16.744%1.00199522.528101.81.16.745%1.0019962327101.81.16.746%1.00199723.527101.91.16.747%1.0019982426101.91.06.748%1.00199924.526102.01.06.749%1.0020002525102.01.06.850%1.00200125.525102.01.06.751%1.0020022624102.11.06.752%1.00200326.524102.10.96.753%1.0020042723102.20.96.754%1.00200527.523102.20.96.755%1.0020062822102.20.96.756%1.00200728.522102.30.96.757%1.0020082921102.30.86.758%1.00200929.521102.40.86.659%1.0020103020102.40.86.660%1.00201130.520102.40.86.661%1.0020123119102.50.86.662%1.00201331.519102.50.76.563%1.0020143218102.60.76.564%1.00201532.518102.60.76.465%1.0020163317102.60.76.466%1.00201733.517102.70.76.367%1.0020183416102.70.66.368%1.00201934.516102.80.66.269%1.0020203515102.80.66.270%1.00202135.515102.80.66.171%1.0020223614102.90.66.172%1.00202336.51492.90.56.073%1.002024371393.00.55.974%1.00202537.51393.00.55.875%1.002026381293.00.55.876%1.00202738.51293.10.55.777%1.002028391193.10.45.678%1.00202939.51193.20.45.579%1.002030401093.20.45.480%1.00203140.51093.20.45.381%1.00203241993.30.45.282%1.00203341.5993.30.35.183%1.00203442893.40.34.984%1.00203542.5893.40.34.885%1.00203643783.40.34.786%1.00203743.5783.50.34.587%1.00203844683.50.24.488%1.00203944.5683.60.24.289%1.00204045583.60.24.190%1.00204145.5583.60.23.991%1.00204246483.70.23.792%1.00204346.5473.70.13.493%1.00204447373.80.13.294%1.00204547.5373.80.12.995%1.00204648273.80.12.696%1.00204748.5263.90.12.397%1.00204849163.90.01.998%1.00204949.5154.00.01.399%1.00205050044.00.00.0100%

% of Distance by CarInjuries: Illustrative Values

9%0.2510%cubic splines13%0.37514%log16%sqrt31%linear