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P A P E R S E R I E S
A NEW EUROPEAN ORDER?
INCLUDE RUSSIA AND ITS NEIGHBORS
HOW TO MOVE TOWARD A COMMON SECURITY SPACE
ROBERT LEGVOLDCOLUMBIA UNIVERSITY
THE WRONG ANSWERWHY THE MEDVEDEV PROPOSAL IS A NON-STARTER
DAVID J. KRAMER AND DANIEL P. FATA
THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES
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2010 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.
No part o this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any orm or by any means without permission in writingrom the German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF). Please direct inquiries to:
Te German Marshall Fund o the United States1744 R Street, NWWashington, DC 20009
1 202 683 2650F 1 202 265 1662E in o@gm us.org
Tis publication can be downloaded or ree at http://www.gm us.org/publications/index.c m. Limited printcopies are also available. o request a copy, send an e-mail to in o@gm us.org.
GMF Paper SeriesTe GMF Paper Series presents research on a variety o transatlantic topics by sta , ellows, and partners o the GermanMarshall Fund o the United States. Te views expressed here are those o the author and do not necessarily represent the view o GMF. Comments rom readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by e-mail to in o@gm us.org.
About GMFTe German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) is a non-partisan American public policy and grant-making institu-tion dedicated to promoting greater cooperation and understanding between North America and Europe.
GMF does this by supporting individuals and institutions working on transatlantic issues, by convening leaders to discussthe most pressing transatlantic themes, and by examining ways in which transatlantic cooperation can address a variety o global policy challenges.
Founded in 1972 through a gi rom Germany as a permanent memorial to Marshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains astrong presence on both sides o the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters in Washington, DC, GMF has seven o ces inEurope: Berlin, Bratislava, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara, and Bucharest.
About Brussels ForumBrussels Forum is an annual high-level meeting o the most infuential American and European political, corporate, andintellectual leaders to address pressing challenges currently acing both sides o the Atlantic. Participants include heads o state, senior o cials rom the European Union institutions and the members states, U.S. Cabinet o cials, Congressionalrepresentatives, Parliamentarians, academics, and media. For more in ormation, please visit www.brussels orum.org.
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A new European order?
Brussels Forum Paper Series
March 2010
I R NHow to Move Toward a Common Security Space
R LC U
T W AWhy the Medvedev Proposal is a Non-Starter
D J. K D P. FT G M F U S
I R N : H M T C S S . . . . . . . .
T W A : W M P N -S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Include Russia and its NeighborsHow to Move Toward a Common Security Space
Brussels Forum Paper Series
March 2010
R L *
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States6
NATOs new Strategic
Concept may or may not
rescue NATOs shaken identity
and futuremission, but it
will not resolvethe underlying
conceptualproblem because
it cannot.
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Conceptual obstacles
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, the agenda remains without a senseof priority,
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Obstacles to a New European SecurityOrder2
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Include Russia and its NeighborsHow to Move Toward a Common Security Space
7
Countries fromVancouver toVladivostok havedifferent threatperceptions,assign them adifferent order of priority, andfavor differentapproachesto those evenagreed upon.
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States8
The encrustationof mistrust and
apprehensionthat has
thickened over the last ten years
weighs heavily on prospects
for overcoming frictions that
make security inEurope anything
but indivisible, letalone equal.
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Include Russia and its NeighborsHow to Move Toward a Common Security Space
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Include Russia and its NeighborsHow to Move Toward a Common Security Space
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Addressing the Conceptual Challenge3
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States12
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Include Russia and its NeighborsHow to Move Toward a Common Security Space
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States14
From the start, thefocus should be
on launching andthen nurturing a process that
encouragespositive
reciprocity.
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Aiding the processoperationally entails bringing order and thenenergy to whatis already anelaborate andextensive agenda.
U.S.-R E .
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eliminate or reduce threats rather than balancing against them. Economists would call this a risk-averting strategy. I
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States16
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The Wrong AnswerWhy the Medvedev Proposal is a Non-Starter
Brussels Forum Paper Series
March 2009
D J. K D P. F *
T G M F U S
* D J. K G M F U S (GMF). M . K U.S. S D ,
. D P. F G M F U S W , DC. P , U.S. E NATO
S 8.
I . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
R C Ex S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
F , R P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Ex O z N B F x . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States20
I J 8, R P DM -E ,
N A T O z (NATO) O z S C E (OSCE)
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A q C S , NATO C O S P P , R , D . 7, .
R k F E S , P F , J . , . :// . .
/ / / 36 73. .
Introduction1
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21
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we must seriously think about the
architecture of global security. ( )3
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Russian Complaints with ExistingStructures2
To Russianleaders, NATOis a relic of theCold War; itscounterpart, theWarsaw Pact,dissolved with thecollapse of theSoviet bloc yetno modifications,Russian leadersargued, weremade in NATO.
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States22
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NATO has alsofailed so far to
give new purposeto its existence,
Medvedev explained. It is
trying to find thispurpose today by globalizing
its missions,including to the
detriment of theUNs prerogatives,
which I mentioned just before, and
by bringing in new members. But
this is clearly stillnot the solution.
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The Wrong AnswerWhy the Medvedev Proposal is a Non-Starter
23
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States24
OSCE .T , ,
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25
A , K N , , x
E S T , OSCE NATO . B
x OSCE NATO ,
R ; ,
R -. D
. W NATOS -G R ,
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. / /R _U _P _F _E _S _T / 8 6 . . A x G , M G E S T ,The Moscow Times, D .
5, , :// . . / / //3 6 46.
I J , ES P , C j M :
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, R
H k F A NATO-RF A .However, we believe that these
common goals are best pursued in the context of existing institutions, such as the OSCE and theNATO-Russia Council, rather than by negotiating new treaties, as Russia has suggesteda very long and cumbersome process. (emphasis added) 6
A , k R O
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, ,
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/ / / 36 73.
Finally, Russia Presents3
In late January,during a speechon EuropeanSecurity in Paris,Clinton weighedin with a firmrejection of the Medvedev proposal.
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States26
q .7
The texts shortcomings
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Russian motivations
I k M , R
-E C
NATO OSCE. I , R
k U SE M
E NATO. I
The Russiandraft makes no
reference tohuman rights
standards anddemocratization,
key issues for theOSCE and NATO.
Given the internaltrends in Russia
toward greater authoritarianism,
this omission should not come
as a major surprise.
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27
F , R F M , S
I .A , R k z U S
E
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x Uk , R ,
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,
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OSCEq . NATO E -A
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R F M k I L k -F q L P N S P ,The MoscowTimes, F . 5, .
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Replacing NATOand halting the alliancesenlargementappear to be atthe root of theRussian proposal.
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States28
R , F 5, . I , NATO x
R . M ,
,
. T , , R - CFE.
I J 8 , M
R - E . H S , ,
R E ,
, k E z .
R - .3
A q , . T
M R D 7 C A F E T . T
k M B , R G . B R -
x q :If Russia does not abide by these
S M D R F , ://.k . / _ /46 . F E ,
J R L , -#35, F . , .
3M B J . 5, 8 :// . . ./ _4. / /C 8 DC FF8D 36 C3 5746 34 6C4.
agreements, on what basis can there be sufficient trust and confidence that Russia will adhere to newarrangements? I , R
x
I G , R
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; R
M , R SA k z
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If Russia does notabide by these
agreements,on what basis
can there be sufficient trustand confidencethat Russia willadhere to new
arrangements?
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The Wrong AnswerWhy the Medvedev Proposal is a Non-Starter
31
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.
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k R k x S O .
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z E U S C ,
OSCE
k .
OSCE missionsin varioustroublespots inEurope havecontributed toimproving stability and security inthe Balkans,Moldova, and theCaucasus, making Russias decisionto block extensionof the missionin South Ossetiaparticularly regrettable.
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States32
N j , M R E . B
k xz
- . A G -R x ,
NATO, EU, OSCE k z
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Conclusion5
If Moscow wereactually to adhereto the principles itargues a new pan- European security
organizationmust be founded
uponi.e., respectfor sovereignty,
territorial integrity,and international
law as well asthe peaceful
settlement of disputesthen
not only pan- European but
also transatlantic security would be greatly improved.
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O F F I C E SWashington Berlin Bratislava Paris
Brussels Belgrade Ankara Bucharest
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