A Macro View Through the Micro Lens

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Macro through (Corporate) Micro Third Quarter 2015 Technology enables access to data in ways that were not possible prior. Calcbench is designed to help finance leaders collect and analyze hard to find competitor, customer, and supplier financial data in near real time to help them make more informed decisions. What can our data tell you about the greater US economic engine and associated trends ? Below is a chart that shows a very small sample of metrics that Calcbench maintains. The bars represent Year over Year aggregate changes in Revenues, Capital Expenditures, Cost Of Revenue (aka Cost of Goods Sold), SG&A, Operating Expenses, Dividends paid to shareholders and Cash. 1,2 Please note all data is based on Calendar Quarters, NOT Fiscal Quarters. Fiscal quarters provided upon request 1 1. Over 3500 firms in sample. Financial firms excluded. Calcbench to publish financials services report (forthcoming) 2. Calcbench DB normalizes over 300+ metrics. These are 11 of the more commonly used. -40.00% -30.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 3rd Quarter 2015 Year over Year Change by Metric

Transcript of A Macro View Through the Micro Lens

Page 1: A Macro View Through the Micro Lens

Macro through (Corporate) Micro Third Quarter 2015

Technology enables access to data in ways that were not possible prior.

Calcbench is designed to help finance leaders collect and analyze hard to find competitor,customer, and supplier financial data in near real time to help them make more informeddecisions.

What can our data tell you about the greater US economic engine and associated trends?

Below is a chart that shows a very small sample of metrics that Calcbench maintains. The barsrepresent Year over Year aggregate changes in Revenues, Capital Expenditures, Cost OfRevenue (aka Cost of Goods Sold), SG&A, Operating Expenses, Dividends paid to shareholdersand Cash.1,2

Please note all data is based on Calendar Quarters, NOT Fiscal Quarters. Fiscal quarters provided upon request 1

1. Over 3500 firms in sample. Financial firms excluded. Calcbench to publish financials services report (forthcoming)2. Calcbench DB normalizes over 300+ metrics. These are 11 of the more commonly used.

-40.00%

-30.00%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

3rd Quarter 2015 Year over Year Change by Metric

Page 2: A Macro View Through the Micro Lens

App. Mat, (9%)

AMD(4%)

Revenue Drop

Revenues at the corporate level are down by 6.25% year over year. Indollar terms, that reflects over $180 billion dollars in sales that did nothappen in Q3 2015 as opposed to Q3 2014.

Why?

Let’s start with the commodities complex, specifically energy and morespecifically oil. Close to 90% of the drop in sales is from 3 industrygroups. Petroleum Refining, Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas.Petroleum Refiners, were the biggest contributors and shown in the tablebelow contributing to more than 50% of the total drop! (Note : All valuesin $ mm):

21 Calcbench uses “net” capex. Small firms increase is over lower base.Please note all data is based on Calendar Quarters, NOT Fiscal Quarters. Fiscal quarters provided upon request

Revenue PY_Revenue Rev Diff

Exxon Mobil Corp 65,679.00$ 103,566.00$ 37,887.00-$

Chevron Corp 32,767.00$ 51,822.00$ 19,055.00-$

Phillips 66 25,792.00$ 40,417.00$ 14,625.00-$

Valero Energy Corp/TX 22,579.00$ 34,408.00$ 11,829.00-$

Marathon Petroleum Corp 18,716.00$ 25,438.00$ 6,722.00-$

Conocophillips 7,262.00$ 12,080.00$ 4,818.00-$

Total 172,795.00$ 267,731.00$ 94,936.00-$

Page 3: A Macro View Through the Micro Lens

Top 50 companies control 39.3% of all US Revenue in Q3 2015

versus 38.9% of all US Revenue in Q3 2015!*

3Please note all data is based on Calendar Quarters, NOT Fiscal Quarters. Fiscal quarters provided upon request

Top 50 Revenue Firms with % of Revenue

Top 50 Firms % Revenue The Rest

*At time of publication, Wal-Mart had not published it’s revenue in the form of a 10-Q. WMT was not included in prioryears results either.

Exxon Mobil Corp 2.4% Johnson & Johnson 0.6%

Apple Inc 1.9% Archer Daniels Midland Co 0.6%

Mckesson Corp 1.8% PROCTER & GAMBLE Co 0.6%

At&T Inc. 1.4% Pepsico Inc 0.6%

General Motors Co 1.4% Intel Corp 0.5%

CVS HEALTH Corp 1.4% United Parcel Service Inc 0.5%

Ford Motor Co 1.4% United Technologies Corp 0.5%

Costco Wholesale Corp 1.3% Cisco Systems, Inc. 0.5%

Verizon Communications Inc 1.2% Sysco Corp 0.5%

Chevron Corp 1.2% Fedex Corp 0.4%

General Electric Co 1.2% Pfizer Inc 0.4%

Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. 1.0% Dow Chemical Co /DE/ 0.4%

Cardinal Health Inc 1.0% Lockheed Martin Corp 0.4%

Boeing Co 0.9% Coca Cola Co 0.4%

Phillips 66 0.9% Delta Air Lines Inc /DE/ 0.4%

Amazon Com Inc 0.9% Caterpillar Inc 0.4%

Express Scripts Holding Co. 0.9% Bunge LTD 0.4%

Valero Energy Corp/TX 0.8% American Airlines Group Inc. 0.4%

Fca Us Llc 0.8% Energy Transfer Equity, L.P. 0.4%

Microsoft Corp 0.7% Ingram Micro Inc 0.4%

Philip Morris Intl Inc. 0.7% Tyson Foods Inc 0.4%

IBM 0.7% United Continental Holdings 0.4%

Marathon Petroleum Corp 0.7% Merck & Co., Inc. 0.4%

Google Inc. 0.7% HCA Holdings, Inc. 0.4%

Comcast Corp 0.7% Honeywell International Inc 0.3%

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App. Mat, (9%)

AMD(4%)

Capital Expenditures may serve as an indicator of the confidence of afirm. When taken as an aggregate, the confidence level of industrybecomes apparent. In Q3 2015 CAPEX shrunk by 9% over Q3 2014. Thetrend holds across firm sizes as large and midsize firms are spending lessyear over year. A silver lining is in the small space (third quartile) with a2.1% increase.

41 Calcbench uses “net” capex. Please note all data is based on Calendar Quarters, NOT Fiscal Quarters. Fiscal quarters provided upon request

$185,000

$190,000

$195,000

$200,000

$205,000

$210,000

$215,000

$220,000

$225,000

Q3 2014 Q3 2015

Capex ($ MM)

Large Mid Small Micro

Q3 2014 $206,223,723,221 $12,140,737,197 $1,289,512,519 $46,825,982

Q3 2015 $187,217,517,994 $11,100,609,364 $1,316,932,927 $45,727,058

Pct Chg. -9.2% -8.6% 2.1% -2.3%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

$-

$50,000,000,000

$100,000,000,000

$150,000,000,000

$200,000,000,000

$250,000,000,000

YoY Capital Expenditures By Firm Size

Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Pct Chg.

Capital Expenditures

Page 5: A Macro View Through the Micro Lens

Average cash on the balance sheet is down by 2.5% YoY. The chart below is aggregated by Sector (based on 2 digit SIC Code). But some sectors (e.g. Misc

Retail) have increased their cash holdings.

5Please note all data is based on Calendar Quarters, NOT Fiscal Quarters. Fiscal quarters provided upon request

Increased CashDecreased Cash

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

YoY % Change in Cash

Change in Cash

Cash Pct Change YoY

Automative Dealers & Service Stations -23%

Printing & Publishing -24%

Communications -29%

Paper & Allied Products -34%

Coal Mining -42%

Cash Pct Change YoY

Miscellaneous Retail 45%

Nonmetallic Minerals, Except Fuels 28%

Wholesale Trade - Nondurable Goods 26%

Motion Pictures 25%

Water Transportation 20%

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6Please note all data is based on Calendar Quarters, NOT Fiscal Quarters. Fiscal quarters provided upon request

Operating Expenses

Overall, Operating Expenses grew 7.7% Year over Year and SG&Aexpenses were up 7.7% but Costs of Revenues were down by 7.45%,indicating tighter input cost controls in the large firms.

Large Mid Small Micro

Q3 2014 $658,735,643,70 $59,462,948,858 $11,798,154,323 $1,044,837,195

Q3 2015 $707,647,382,84 $65,756,860,665 $12,782,973,841 $890,590,142

Pct Chg. 7.4% 10.6% 8.3% -14.8%

-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%

$-

$200,000,000,000

$400,000,000,000

$600,000,000,000

$800,000,000,000

YoY Operating Expenses By Firm Size

Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Pct Chg.

Large Mid Small Micro

Q3 2014 $355,601,316,54 $37,928,525,580 $7,182,049,983 $758,241,196

Q3 2015 $363,523,685,92 $40,493,486,550 $7,712,932,376 $643,130,307

Pct Chg. 2.2% 6.8% 7.4% -15.2%

-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%

$-

$100,000,000,000

$200,000,000,000

$300,000,000,000

$400,000,000,000

YoY SG&A By Firm Size

Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Pct Chg.

Large Mid Small Micro

Q3 2014 $1,677,789,847 $140,010,023,1 $14,323,783,31 $533,780,982

Q3 2015 $1,538,272,140 $143,607,610,6 $13,594,697,73 $572,914,536

Pct Chg. -8.3% 2.6% -5.1% 7.3%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

$-

$500,000,000,000

$1,000,000,000,000

$1,500,000,000,000

$2,000,000,000,000

YoY Cost of Revenue By Firm Size

Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Pct Chg.

Page 7: A Macro View Through the Micro Lens

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7Please note all data is based on Calendar Quarters, NOT Fiscal Quarters. Fiscal quarters provided upon request