A macro view of employment in the new economy
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Transcript of A macro view of employment in the new economy
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
Suppose you could have perfect knowledge about the total amount of skills possessed by everyone in the country who wants to and can
work.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
Suppose you could have perfect knowledge about the total amount of skills possessed by everyone in the country who wants to and can
work.
That’s this circle.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
Suppose you could have perfect knowledge about the total amount of skills possessed by everyone in the country who wants to and can
work.
That’s this circle.
One person.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
And suppose you could have perfect knowledge about the total
amount of need for work in the U.S., whether you’re talking about
employers, or market need for entrepreneurs.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
And suppose you could have perfect knowledge about the total
amount of need for work in the U.S., whether you’re talking about
employers, or market need for entrepreneurs.
That’s this circle.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
And suppose you could have perfect knowledge about the total
amount of need for work in the U.S., whether you’re talking about
employers, or market need for entrepreneurs.
That’s this circle.
One “bundle of work” (formerly known as a Job.)
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
Put the two circles together, and you have a way of picturing the
work “marketplace.”
(Of course, it doesn’t function like most markets, but let’s go with it.)
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
This is the part of the workforce that’s
“employed” - making a gainful living.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
This is the market need that’s not being met – when employers haven’t yet found the “trained” workers they
need.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
This is unemployment.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
In recessions, employment statistics look like this.
More unemployed
people.Fewer job openings.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
When the economy is thriving, employment
statistics look like this.
Fewer “unemployed”
people.More job openings.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
But the actual picture is a little more complicated.
Just because the employment statistics look good, doesn’t
guarantee you’ll have a healthy economy.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
(Incidentally, this is the median wage in the U.S. - about $26
an hour.)
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
First, there are more people checked out of the workforce today
than any time since the Great Depression. They’re called
“discouraged from looking,” and they’re not counted in the unemployment statistics.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
Next, the “need” isn’t evenly distributed; today, there’s a very clear
need for lower-skilled jobs, and for higher-skilled jobs, but evaporating need for what are typically called
“middle-skilled” jobs.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
College degree required.
College degree not required.
Next, the “need” isn’t evenly distributed; today, there’s a very clear
need for lower-skilled jobs, and for higher-skilled jobs, but evaporating need for what are typically called
“middle-skilled” jobs.
Some college or training.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
Finally, there’s the issue of wages. The average household below the median income is making far less than it did before the recession began. So simply having a job doesn’t mean you’re making a
living wage.
People here are making less than they did 10 years
ago.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
That’s complicated enough.
Then, along comes automation and globalization.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
That’s complicated enough.
Then, along comes automation and globalization.
Many of these are the jobs that are
most at risk of being duplicated by
software and robots.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
That’s complicated enough.
Then, along comes automation and globalization.
Many of these are the jobs that are
most at risk of being duplicated by
software and robots.
Those remaining are low-wage jobs -
typically paying less than $15 an hour.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
These are the next to be
automated.
That’s complicated enough.
Then, along comes automation and globalization.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
Let’s go back to the simple model for a moment.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
Whenever there’s been a “big shift” in the work market – such as the change from an agricultural to an industrial economy – there’s been an
inevitable disruption.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
Whenever there’s been a “big shift” in the work market – such as the change from an agricultural to an industrial economy – there’s been an
inevitable disruption.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
The people who’ve been displaced still need to work.
And the “new economy” requires workers.
Governments often tried to predict what the new demand
will be, and then train the displaced workers.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
That never worked very well. But at least it was possible to
try, because the transition was reasonably slow.
Decades
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What happens when the disruption occurs in a
blindingly fast period of time?
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
And what happens when the people trained for the old
economy aren’t necessarily equipped to work in the new
economy?
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
In the past, of course, even in massive shifts like
agricultural to industrial, there eventually were more
jobs.
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
But what if the combination of automation (software & robots) and globalization
(jobs go where they’re cheapest) shrinks
“demand”? What if there is just less paid work
available?
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
But what if the combination of automation (software & robots) and globalization
(jobs go where they’re cheapest) shrinks
“demand”? What if there is just less paid work
available?
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
But what if the combination of automation (software & robots) and globalization
(jobs go where they’re cheapest) shrinks
“demand”? What if there is just less paid work
available?
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
But what if the combination of automation (software & robots) and globalization
(jobs go where they’re cheapest) shrinks
“demand”? What if there is just less paid work
available?
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
And what happens when the disruption occurs in a
blindingly fast period of time?
Years
www.eparachute.comGary A. Bolles [email protected]
All of this defines “the problem domain.”
To envision “the solutions domain,” some of the questions we need to answer include:
How can we empower millions of individuals to continually prepare themselves for and find meaningful
work?
How can employers - in fact, anyone offering paid work - commit to actions that increase opportunity for
workers?
How can educators provide the kinds of learning opportunities needed to support those millions of
people as they repeatedly seek or create new work opportunities?
Look for more on solutions in a subsequent presentation.