A Human Development View on Value Change Trends (1981-2006)

Christian Welzel

Professor of Political ScienceInternational University Bremen (IUB)

c.welzel@iu-bremen.de

?

Istanbul, November 03, 2006

Two Dimensions of Cross-Cultural Variation

Variation in people‘s prevailing value orientations is enormous, yet in many aspects it can be boiled down to just two dimensions of cross-cultural variation:

(1)Weak vs. strong SECULAR-RATIONAL Values: with secular-rational values getting weaker one approaches the mythical ideal of a sacred community, with these values getting stronger one approaches the rational ideal of a secular community. This polarity is about ideals of the COMMUNITY.

(2) Weak vs. strong SELF-EXPRESSION Values: with self-expression values getting weaker one approaches the conformist ideal of a restrained individual, with these values getting stronger one approaches the ideal of an expressive individual. This polarity is about ideals of the INDIVIDUAL.

High Importance of Religion

(+) Emphasize RELIGIOSITY

(-) Low Importance of Religion

Strong Pride on Own Nationality

(+) Emphasize PATRIOTISM

(-) No Strong Pride on Own Nationality

More Respect for Authority Needed

(+) Respect AUTHORITY

(-) More Respect Not Needed

Obedience, not Independ. Taught

(+) Teach OBEDIENCE

(-) Independ., not Obedience Taught

WEAK

SECULAR-

RATIONAL

VALUES

Refusal of Divorce as Unjustified

(+) Emphasize traditional FAMLISM

(-) Acceptance of Divorce

STRONG

SECULAR-

RATIONAL

VALUES

.39 .39

.57 .57

.67 .67

.49 .49

.56 .56

Weak vs. Strong Secular-Rational Values

Weak Liberty Aspirations

(-) Emphasize civil and political FREEDOM

(+) Strong Liberty Aspirations

Abstinence from Signing Petitions

(-) Support and practice public EXPRESSION

(+) Participation in Petition Signing

Rejection of Homosexuality

(-) Tolerate NONCONFORMITY

(+) Acceptance of Homosexuality

Weak Sense of Self-Direction

(-) Feel SELF-DIRECTION

(+) Strong Sense of Self-Direction

WEAK

SELF-

EXPRESSION

VALUES

Refusal of Trust in Other People

(-) Sense HUMAN TRUST

(+) Expression of Trust in Other People

STRONG

SELF-

EXPRESSION

VALUES

.57 .57

.58 .58

.60 .60

.37 .37

.57 .57

Weak vs. Strong Self-Expression Values

The two value dimensions are partially distinct as they have different reference points, the community and the individual.

Yet, the two dimensions also partially overlap:

The weak poles of the two dimensions overlap on a common emphasis on human CONSTRAINT, the two strong poles overlap on a common emphasis on human CHOICE.

In combination, weak secular-rational values and weak self-expression values pursue an ideal in which individuals are restrained by chaining them to survival communities. The commonality of this ideal is to emphasize human constraints.

In combination, strong secular-rational values and strong self-expression values pursue an ideal in which individuals are free to express themselves by unchaining them from survival communities.The commonality of this ideal is to emphasize human choice.

An Underlying Constraint vs. Choice Polarity

(+) Emphasize RELIGIOSITY

(-)

(+) Emphasize PATRIOTISM

(-)

(+) Respect AUTHORITY

(-)

(+) Teach OBEDIENCE

(-)

WEAKLY

SECULAR-

RATIONAL

COMMUNITY

(+) Support traditional FAMILISM

(-)

STRONGLY

SECULAR-

RATIONAL

COMMUNITY

(-) Emphasize civil and political FREEDOM

(+)

(-) Support and use public EXPRESSION

(+)

(-) Tolerate NONCONFORMITY

(+)

(-) Feel SELF-DIRECTION

(+)

Emphasis on

HUMAN

CONSTRAINT

WEAKLY

SELF-

EXPRESSIVE

INDIVIDUAL

(-) Sense HUMAN TRUST

(+)

STRONGLY

SELF-

EXPRESSIVE

INDIVIDUAL

Emphasis on

HUMAN

CHOICE

An Underlying Constraint vs. Choice Polarity

The Two-Dimensional Value Space in Theory

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00

Se

cu

lar-

Ra

tio

na

l Va

lue

s

+

_

Self-Expression Values +_

CONSTRAINT

CHOICE

+

_

The Two-Dimensional Value Space in Reality

HNK

ZMB

MON

SER

VTN

VEN

URU

USA

GB

UKR

UGA

TUR

TNZ

SWI

SWE

ESP

SAF

SLO

SLV

SIN

SAU

RUS

ROM

POR

POLPHI

PER

PAK

NOR

NIG

NWZ

NTH

MOR

MOL

MEX

MAL

MAC

LXMLTH

LTV

KYR

SKR

JRD

JPN

ITL

ISR

IRE

INDO

IND

ICE

HUN

GUA

GRC

GER (W.)

GEO

GER (E.)

FIN

EST

ELSEGP

DOM

DENCZE

CYP

CRO

COL

CHN

CHICAN

BUL

BRZ

BOSBEL

BLR

BAN

AZR

AUT

AUSARM ARG

ALG

ALB

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70

Self-Expression Values

Se

cu

lar-

Ra

tio

na

l Va

lue

s

r = .50***

FRA

+_

+

_

1 SD

Value Change Progressing from Constraint to Choice

Value change progressing from constraint to choice is a central aspect of Human Development because this value change makes people mentally free, motivating them to develop, unfold, and actualize their inner human potentials.

A Human Development Model of Value Change

or Maslowian Value Change (next slide)

PROSPERITY

People experiencetheir lives asself-directed

More actionresources available

to people

People experiencetheir lives as safe and secure

People perceive roomto relieve from unchosen community ties

Rising SECULAR-RATIONALview on COMMUNITY ties

People perceive roomto develop theircreative human

potentials

Rising SELF-EXPRESSIVEview on INDIVIDUAL potentials

Growing Emphasis on HUMAN CHOICE

People tend to value the

choices they are capable

to practice.

A Human Recession Model of Value Change Regressing from Choice to Constraint

MISERY

People experiencetheir lives as

less self-directed

Less actionresources available

to people

People experiencetheir lives as lesssafe and secure

People perceive little room to relieve from unchosen community ties

Receding SECULAR-RATIONALview on COMMUNITY ties

People perceive littleroom to develop

their creativehuman potentials

Receding SELF-EXPRESSIVEview on INDIVIDUAL potentials

Growing Emphasis on HUMAN CONSTRAINT

People tend to value the

choices they are capable

to practice.

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70

Self-Expression Values +_

Se

cu

lar-

Ra

tio

na

l Va

lue

s

+

_

1981

2006

Net ValueChangeswithinCulturalZones(1981-2006)

On average, the fivecultural zones (for whichdata are available from1981 to 2006) have beenmoving toward strongerself-expression values. Four of these five zonesalso moved towardstronger secular-rationalvalues. But this moveis less pronounced.

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70

Africa

before 1921

1921-30

1931-40

1941-50

1951-60

1961-70

1971-80

after 1980

before 1921

1931-401941-50

1951-60

1961-70

1971-80

after 1980

Self-Expression Values +_

Se

cu

lar-

Ra

tio

na

l Va

lue

s

+

_

before 1921

after 1980

after 1980

after 1980

after 1980

before 1921

before 1921

CohortDifferencesthroughoutCulturalZones

Cohort differencesindicate a long-termincrease of secular-rational and self-expression values inall cultural zonesexcept Africa.

A C T I O N R E S O U R C E S

More

MATERIAL means

Higher INTELLECTUAL

skills

Wider SOCIAL

connectivity

make people goods-wise more

independent.

make people knowledge-wise more

independent.

makes people relation-wise more

independent.

People can act more independently and have greater choice.

People perceive more room to actualize their inner potentials.

Rising Self-Expression Values

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Individual Action Resources +_

Se

lf-E

xp

res

sio

n V

alu

es

+

_

SWE after 1980

SWE 1971-80

SWE 1961-70SWE 1951-60

SWE 1941-50

SWE 1931-40

SWE 1921-30

NZ before 1921NZ 1921-30

NZ 1941-50

CZE after 1980

SLO after 1980

ESP 1961-70

ESP 1951-60SWE before 1921

BRA 1951-60

DEN 1941-50ATR after 1980

USA before 1920

USA 1921-30

USA 1931-40

USA after 1980

BEL after 1980

ISR after 1980

CHIL after 1980

CYP after 1980

SKO after 1980J AP 1951-60

ICE after 1980

J OR after 1980

HUN after 1980

PAK after 1980

PAK 1931-40

HUN before 1920

POL 1921-30

PHIL after 1980

VEN after 1980

FIN 1921-30URU 1941-50

RUS before 1920

National Cohorts‘Value Positionsrelated to theAction ResourcesAvailable in their FormativeYears

More action resourcesin people‘s formativeyears raise their self-expression values. Yet,societies‘ trajectorieson this growth pathdiffer in their height.

Note: Action resourcesmeasured by Vanhanen‘sindex of power resources(0-100 scale).

Postmaterialist Liberty Aspirations (PLA)

Ordinal preference scale measuring priorities on three goals related to civil and political liberties, taken from the materialism/postmaterialism item batteries: “seeing that people have more say about things are done at their jobs and in their communities,” (V120, V121) “giving people more say in important government decisions” and “protecting freedom of speech” (both in V122, V123). For each item, no priority is coded 0, second priority is coded 1 and first priority is coded 2. Priorities for each item are then added to a 0-5 scale. The following table describes this index:

Liberty Aspirations Code Meaning Label

0 Absent No item on 1st or 2nd rank 1 Weak One item on 2nd rank 2 Moderate One item 1st or two items 2nd 3 Moderate-to-strong One item 1st and one 2nd 4 Strong One item 1st and two items 2nd 5 Maximum Two items 1st and one 2nd

Let‘s Focus on a Central Component of Self-Expression Valuesand Its Implications: Postmaterialistic Liberty Aspirations

PLA=0

PLA=1

PLA=2

PLA=3

PLA=4

PLA=5

5.60

5.80

6.00

6.20

6.40

6.60

6.80

7.00

7.20

7.40

7.60

8.00 8.20 8.40 8.60 8.80 9.00 9.20 9.40 9.60 9.80

Subjective Importance of Democracy

Subjective Importance of Democracy :How important is it for you to live

in a democratic country?

Pe

rce

ive

d P

res

en

ce

of

De

mo

cra

cy

Perceived Presence of Democracy :How democratic do you consideryour own country?

MEAN

ME

AN

Notes:PLA (postmaterialistic liberty aspirations)WVS I-V (FIN,FRA,ITA,NL,ESP,SWE,GB,USA,GER)

TheDemocraticImplicationsof risingPLA

Rising PLA let peopleplace more emphasison democracy but makethem more critical ofits presence, nurturinga democratic reformpotential.

Note:Scale range of onestandard deviationaround the meanshown.

Conclusion

A central component of rising self-expression values, postmaterialistic libertyaspirations, generates a democratic reform potential by driving people to placemore emphasis on democracy while making them more critical of the actualdemocratic performance.