A Globalized Dairy Market · 10/8/2014 · ‒U.S. dairy producers ‒Dairy processors and...
Transcript of A Globalized Dairy Market · 10/8/2014 · ‒U.S. dairy producers ‒Dairy processors and...
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A Globalized Dairy Market
The U.S. Dairy Industry: We’re “All In”
International Grocers Association
Atlanta, GA
October 8, 2014
Today’s Topics
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• About USDEC
• Growth factors and prospects
‒ Milk supply assets
‒ Export commitment
‒ Portfolio expansion
• Final thoughts
• Q & A
• Independent membership organization
• 119 members
‒U.S. dairy producers
‒Dairy processors and cooperatives
‒Trading companies
‒Allied companies and organizations
• Created in 1995 by U.S. dairy farmers
• Headquartered in Arlington, Virginia
U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC)
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4
Representation Around the World
Provide market insights and technical
support to local buyers and end-users
• China
• European Union*
• Japan
• Mexico, including
Central America
• Middle East &
North Africa
• South America
• South Korea
• Southeast Asia
• United States
• Vietnam
Factors Behind Growth in U.S. Milk Production
• Higher yields per cow (despite lower number of cows)
• Steady growth in dairy farm efficiency‒ Lower production costs (reduced
investment/overhead per cow)
‒ More financial stability and commitment
• Year-round production with very little seasonal variance‒ Volume
‒ Nutrient composition
• Production across the USA5
U.S. Leads the World in Milk Volume Growth
6Source: USDEC
EU-28
US
NZ
Australia
Argentina
-1,500
1,200
3,900
6,600
9,300
12,000
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
(000 M
T)
Cumulative milk production growth since 2005
EU-28 US NZ Australia Argentina
Source: USDEC - USDA
Value
(millions)
% change
vs. 2008
Volume
(MT)
% change
vs. 2008
SMP/NDM $2,050 +44% 554,752 +38%
Cheese $1,355 +138% 316,556 +141%
Whey proteins $1,210 +98% 544,584 +50%
Lactose $574 +213% 341,747 +84%
Butterfat $354 +30% 91,952 +2%
Ice cream $177 +208% 61,089 +141%
Fluid milk & cream $36 +84% 86,991 +78%
TOTAL $6,831 +78%
What We Export (2013)
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Source: USDEC - USDA
Value
(millions)
% change
vs. 2008
Mexico $1,425 +53%
Southeast Asia $1,247 +68%
Middle East/North Africa $827 +79%
Canada $764 +57%
China/Hong Kong $750 +283%
Japan $304 +46%
Korea $303 +200%
Caribbean $193 +18%
TOTAL $6,831 +78%
Where We Export (2013)
8Source: USDEC - USDA
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Jul-14
(bil
lio
n lb
s.,
to
tal m
ilk
so
lid
s)
Incremental growth in U.S. production and exports since 2003
incremental production growth incremental export growth
Increasing Percentage of “New” Milk Produced
Since 2003 for Export
Source: USDEC, NMPF
68% to Exports
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Record U.S. Dairy Exports in 2013
10
0
420
840
1,260
1,680
2,100
$0
$1,500
$3,000
$4,500
$6,000
$7,500
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Volu
me (
thousand m
t, T
SB
)
Valu
e (
mill
ions)
U.S. Exports - value and volume
Value Volume 19
Exports in 2013:
$6.7 billion
1.8 million MT
Export value + 31% last year
+ 21% p.a. over 10 years (CAGR)
Export volume + 19% last year
+ 12% p.a. over 10 years (CAGR)
Export % of production 15.5% up from 11% in 2008
U.S. global share[SMP, WMP, cheese, butterfat, whey]
17% up from 11% in 2009
2013 Saw Outstanding Growth
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Most U.S. Products Hitting Higher Export Shares
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Product 2014
(7 mos.)
2013 Avg.
‘04 – ‘08
NDM/SMP 59% 58% 42%
Cheese 7.4% 6.3% 1.9%
Dry sweet whey 53% 56% 42%
Lactose 55% 73% 56%
Butterfat 8.6% 10.7% 4.4%
Diverse, Growing Base of Markets for U.S. Dairy
Products
Source: USDEC, USDA
62% to Exports
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U.S. DAIRY EXPORTS, TOP 10 MARKETS (in millions) (JAN.-DEC. 2013 AND % CHANGE VS. PRIOR YEAR)
CANADA
$569 m, +21%
MEXICO
$1,429 m, +16%
CARIBBEAN
$216 m, +1%
SOUTH
AMERICA
$277 m, +9%
MIDDLE EAST/
NO. AFRICA
$788 m, +83%
CHINA
$706 m, +70%
SO. KOREA
$301 m, +34%
JAPAN
$304 m, +7%
SOUTHEAST ASIA
$1,284 m, +39%
OCEANIA
$258 m, +17%
14Source: GTIS, USDEC
+7.2
+8.5+8.5
+7.2
25%
28%
17%
5%
24%
0.00
0.08
0.16
0.24
0.32
0.40
EU-28 NZ US Australia Other
pe
rce
nt
2013 Aggregate Export Volume (share) SMP, WMP, cheese, butterfat, whey
2. Rising U.S. Presence in Global Dairy Trade
Most Products Moving UpSeven Months 2014 vs. Seven Months 2013
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Lactose IceCream
Whey SMP/NDM
Milk &Cream*
Butter Cheese All Value
-6%
6% 7%
11%
16%
22%
31%
22%
Volume (000 MT)
*(mil. liters)
15198.5 42.5 335.1 353.0 58.6 47.9 231.2 $4,615 mil
U.S. Exports of CheeseEleven Months 2013 vs. Eleven Months 2012
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
World Mexico Korea MiddleEast
Japan CentralAmerica
SE Asia China Caribbean
19%
24%
21%
37%
16%
10%
6%
16%
13%
Volume (000 MT) 285.5 72.9 44.7 39.3 28.2 15.4 14.1 12.2 11.8
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Closing
Questions and Answers?
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