The Millennium Project:

A global horizon scanning system and

NATO workshop: Identification of Potential Terrorists

Emerging Technologies and New Counter-Terror StrategiesFor

Technology Watch and Horizon Scanning

Community of Practice Meeting Sept 2016

Jerome C. Glenn, CEO

The Millennium Project

… Acts like a TransInstitution

UNOrganizations

NGOsand

Foundations

Universities

GovernmentsCorporations

The Millennium Project

60 Nodes...and two regional networks in Europe and Latin America

Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.

are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in:

Tunisia

Yerevan

Sri Lanka

Millennium Project Planning Committee

Composed of:

• Board of Directors

• Node Chairs

• Sponsors

• Additional futurists

MP Futures Research… so far1. African Futures Scenarios 2025, and UNDP workshop at the UN (1994)

2. Millennium Project Feasibility Study final report (1995)

3. Global Issues/Strategies four-round Global Lookout (Delphi) study (1996)

4. Lessons of History (1997)

5. Global Opportunities and Strategies Delphi (1997)

6. Definitions of Environmental Security (1997)

7. Futures Research in Decisionmaking (and checklist) (1998-99)

8. Global Normative 2050 Scenario (1998)

9. Environmental Security Threats and Policy Leadership (1998)

10. Current/Potential UN military doctrine on Environmental Security (1999)

11. Six Alternative Year 3000 Scenarios (1999)

12. S&T Issues over the next 25 years (2000)

13. Future Technological Implications for Society and the UN System (2000)

14. Analysis of UN Summit Speeches (2001)

15. Military environmental crimes and the role of the ICC (2001)

16. Management Implications of Future S&T 2025 Issues (2001)

17. New Military Environmental Security Requirements 2010-2015 (2001)

18. Global Goals for the year 2050 (2002)

19. Future S&T Scenarios 2025 (2002)

20. Emerging Environmental Security Issues for Future UN Treaties (2002)

21. Monthly Reports: Emerging Environmental Security Issues (2002-2011)

22. Middle East Peace Scenarios (2002-04)

23. Early Warning System for Kuwait Oil Company (2003-04)

24. Nanotech Military R&D Health/Env Research Prevention Priorities 2004-05)

25. Future Ethical Issues (2004-05)

26. Global Energy Scenarios (2006-07)

27. South Korea SOFI (2006)

28. Future of Learning and Education 2030 (2007)

29. Global Climate Change Situation Room for Gimcheon, South Korea (2007-2008)

30. Conceptual design for global energy collective intelligence (GENIS) (2008)

31. Status of Government Future Strategy Units (2008)

32. RTDelphi for UNESCO World Water Report (2008)

33. WFUNA Human Rights (2008)

34. Decision Criteria Evaluation of Global Environment Facility (2008)

35. South Korea SOFI and South African SOFI (2008)

36. Early Warning System PMO Kuwait (2008-2009)

37. Potential Future Elements of the Next Economic System (2009)

38. UNESCO World Water Scenarios project (2009)

39. Future of Ontologists (2009)

40. Future Hopes and Fears: a Kuwait Perspective (2010-2011)

41. Latin America 2030 Scenarios (2009-2011)

42. Egypt 2020 (2010)

43. Changes to Gender Stereotypes (2011)

44. Azerbaijan SOFI (2011)

45. Future Arts, Media, and Entertainment: Seeds for 2020 (2011)

46. Cooperatives 2030: Factors Impacting Future of Cooperatives and Business (2012)

47. Egypt’s national Synergetic Information System (ECISIS) (2013-16)

48. Hidden Hunger: Unhealthy Food Markets in the Developing World (2013)

49. Vulnerable Natural Infrastructure in Urban Coastal Zones (2013)

50. FUTURES Dictionary/Encyclopedia (English and Spanish) (2014)

51. SIMAD and Lone Wolf Terrorism Counter Strategies (2014)

52. Czech Rep., Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Visegrad Region SOFIs (2014-2015)

53. Water-Energy-Food Nexus in the Context of Climate Change (2015-16)

54. Pre-Detection of Terrorism Strategies RTDelphi, NATO Workshop (2015-17)

55. Future Work/Technology 2050 Global Issues, Scenarios, Workshops (2015-17)

39 Chapters

1,300 pages

Largest collection ofInternationally peer-reviewed methods to explore the future ever assembled in one source

Maybe…

…the greatest number of future-relevant facts, information, and intelligence ever assembled in one report.

2015 State of the Future Index

28 Variables use in the 2015 SOFI

• GNI per capita, PPP (constant 2011 int $)

• Economic income inequality (income share

held by highest 10%)

• Unemployment, total (% of world labor force)

• Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP)

(percent of population)

• CPIA transparency, accountability, and

corruption in the public sector rating Foreign

direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current

US$, billions)

• R&D Expenditures (percent of GDP)

• Population growth (annual rate)

• Life expectancy at birth (years)

• Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)

• Prevalence of undernourishment percent of

population)

• Health expenditure per capita (current US$)

• Physicians (per 1,000 people)

• Improved water source (percent of population

with access)

• Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic

meters)

• Biocapacity per capita

• Forest area (percent of land area)

• Fossil fuel and cement production emissions (MtC/yr)

• Energy-efficiency (GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2011

PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent))

• Electricity production from renewable sources, excluding

hydroelectric (percent of total)

• Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above)

• School enrollment, secondary (percent gross)

• Share of high skilled employment (percent)

• Number of wars and serious arm conflicts

• Terrorism incidents

• Freedom rights (number of countries rated “free”)

• Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments

(percent of members)

• Internet users (per 100 people)

World Report Card

Where are We Winning?

1.49

66.44

59.70

21.33

463.50

1.30

79.17

5.77

1.19

79.43

56.21

13.80

12.42

76.00

319.89

33.63

9,096.68

15.80

1.21

69.04

44.20

17.64

711.01

1.45

85.63

6.69

1.98

84.27

63.72

15.70

16.49

89.00

1,358.71

21.10

11,488.75

45.73

1.13

71.51

30.04

12.44

1,246.11

1.61

90.54

7.74

6.74

86.10

75.89

18.30

22.10

90.21

1,923.62

11.92

15,039.57

90.12

1.16

73.46

20.47

8.67

1,940.45

1.76

91.71

8.56

19.39

90.84

88.78

19.40

32.89

91.00

2,075.25

7.16

20,017.10

0.78

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Internet Users (per 100 people)

Population growth (annual %)

Life expectancy at birth (years)

Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)

Prevalence of undernourishment (% population)

Health expenditure per capita (US$)

Physicians (per 1,000 people)

Improved water sources (% population with access)

Energy-Efficiency (GDP/unit of energy use)

Electricity from renewables, excl. hydro (% of total)

Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15+)

School enrollment, secondary (% gross)

Share of high skilled employment (%)

Women in national parliaments (% of members)

Freedom (number of countries rated free)

Foreign direct investment, net inflows (US$, billions)

Poverty ($1.25/day, PPP) (%)

GNI per capita (PPP, 2011 international $)

1995 2005 2015 2025

Where are We Losing?

World Report Card

2.83

44.00

2.02

2.00

31.76

7,658

6,398

6.09

2.89

46.00

2.02

1.80

31.24

6,791

8,093

6.13

2.91

51.37

31.00

11,792

2.00

1.68

30.84

5,859

10,484

6.08

2.96

48.00

34.78

30,367

2.01

1.61

30.61

4,982

15,257

6.20

3,079 2,010

31.22

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Corruption in the public sector (1=low; 6=high)

Number of wars and serious arm conflicts (25+ deaths)

Income inequality (share of top 10%)

Terrorism incidents

R&D expenditures (% of GDP)

Biocapacity per capita (gha)

Forest area (% of land area)

Renewable internal freshwater resources (m3/capita)

Fossil fuel and cement production emissions (MtC/yr)

Unemployment (% of world labor force)

1995 2005 2015 2025

Initial Draft

Integrated Global Strategy

In Summary: Main Methods used by

The Millennium Project

• Environmental Scanning with 60 Nodes (scan the scanners)

• Global Futures Intelligence System at www.themp.org

• Real-Time Delphi -> GFIS Delphi

• 15 Global Challenge – a framework to keep track of global

change (Challenge Reviewers)

• State of the Future reports – method to force progress of our

analysis/synthesis

• State of the Future Index (SOFI) global, national, issue, sector

• Scenarios with inputs from Cross-Impacts and Future Wheels

• Charrette Workshops: Future Work/Tech2050 Global Scenarios

NATO Advanced Research Workshop

Identification of Potential Terrorists and

Adversary Planning;

Emerging Technologies and New Counter-

Terror Strategies

24 presentations and 3 working groups

NATO Workshop

Current Activities

1.Millennium Project Planning Committee Annual Meeting, July 21-22, 2016, Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington, DC, USA2.NATO Advanced Research Workshop: Identification of Potential Terrorists and Adversary Planning — Emerging Technologies and New Counter-Terror Strategies, July 25-27, 2016, CSRA, Falls Church, VA, USA3.2015-16 State of the Future (print and electronic versions)4.Future of Work/Technology 20505.Global Futures Collective Intelligence System (GFIS)(collaborative and continuously updated research)6.Lone Wolf Terrorism Prospects and Potential Strategies to Address the Threat7. Futures Dictionary/Encyclopedia (English and Spanish)8.Online course "Azerbaijan Foresight"9.State of the Future Index (both global and national SOFIs)10.Annotated Scenarios Bibliography (continuously updated on GFIS)11.Egypt’s Integrated Synergetic Intelligence System (E-ISIS)12.Special studies

Presentations

linked to names at:

www.millennium-project.org

Under Current Activities

item #2

NATO Workshop April 24-27, 2016

Presentations available, but some subjective highlights:

• “Anyone can attack anyone from anywhere at anytime” – Future of

Violence; a new social contract needs to be developed

• Old contract: Citizens taxed for government projection; Next: Citizen

taxed for government to work with citizens to prevent terrorism

• Separating terrorists from their social base, requires new roles for the

public and hence a new social contract

• Islamic state –> Islamic torrorist state of mind = swarm wolf

• Role of culture needs much greater attention

• Global collective intelligence system as data-driven self-regulating

systems (ETHz) better than big data single model systems (outlier problem)

Old Way of Seeing Future

Technologies

Artificial Intelligence

Robotic manufacturing

Computational Science

3-D4-D Priting

Nanotechnology

Quantum computing

Synthetic Biology

Drones

Artificial General Intelligence

Tele-Everything & Tele-Everybodythe Semantic Web

Future Way of Seeing Future

Technologies - Integration/Synergies

Future Technology Synergies

Robotic manufacturing

Drones

Quantum computing

Robotic manufacturing

3D，4D Printing

Augmented RealityTele-Presence, Holographics

Nanotechnology

Artificial General Intelligence

Tele-EverythingTele-Everybodythe Semantic Web

Increasing individual and collective intelligence

Synthetic Biology

Nanotechnology

Future Technology Synergies

Artificial Intelligence

Robotic manufacturing

Quantum computing

Drones

Future Technology

Robotic manufacturing

3D，4D Printing

Augmented Reality,Tele-Presence, Holographics

If\then Nano-

technology

Synthetic

Biology

Internet of

Things

3D Printing Conscious-

Technology

Artificial

Intelligence

Nano-

technology xxx

Synthetic

Biology xxx

Internet of

Things xxx3D Printing

xxxConscious-

Technology xxxArtificial

Intelligence xxx

A Method of Anticipating Tech Synergies

Some Future Threats from Technologies

discussed during the workshop • Internet of Things, system collapse, everything venerable

• Increasing intelligence – mini Hitlers, brain gap prejudice

• 3-D Printing – proliferation of weapons out of control

• Synthetic Biology – lab leaks, pandemics, SIMAD, gene targets

• Nanotechnology – mass nano swarm robotic armies, gray goo

• AI & Robotics – mass unemployment, social revolutions,

autonomous vehicles as weapons

• Augmented Reality – inability to distinguish reality, insanity

• Cyborg/enhanced super terrorists and swarm wolf

• Sky release droplet dispersion for multiple interactions

If\then IoT collapse Information

war paranoia

IQ, Brain gap

mini Hitlers

SIMAD Proliferation of

Nano Armies

Mass

Unemployment

IoT collapse xxx

Information

war paranoia xxx

IQ, Brain gap,

mini Hitlers xxxSIMAD

xxxProliferation of

Nano Armies xxxMass

Unemployment xxx

Thinking the Unthinkable… …Interactions of what can go wrong

Some Pre-Event Detection Technologies

from Millennium Project’s RTDelphi• Multi-spectral sensors

• Monitor social media

• Improve “no fly” list

• Robot security guards

• Public reporting

• New codes of ethics

• Mandatory test reporting

• Finding suspicious mail

• DNA analysis

• Use of brain fMRI

• Tracking movements

• Identify purchasers of proscribed materials

• Psychological tests

• Assigning risk scores

• Video scanning

• Advanced firewalls

• Administrative jailing

• Solutions to stigma

• Cyber honey pots, and related

Triad to Reduce the likelihood of SIMADs

Technology Sensors, mesh networks, etc.

Public Prevention &

Detection Rolls

Mental Health, Child

Development, Education

Potential Global

Assessment by The

Millennium Project

What sector of the public?

Lone Wolf

SIMAD

Ideological Support

Sympathetic to Ideological Support

Public Prevention Detection Rolls

General Public

How to keep track and anticipate

…the synergies among technologies and

….their potential security and social impacts?

One approach: Collective Intelligence Systems

General concept of Collective Intelligence

Collective Intelligence Definition

• emerges from the integration and

synergies among

• data/info/knowledge

• software/hardware

• experts and others with insight

• that continually learns from

feedback

• to produce just in time knowledge

for better decisions• than these elements acting alone.

Menu Options for each Challenge in the

Global Futures Intelligence System1. News items (automatic news feeds – searchable)

2. Scanning (annotated, rated information)

3. Situation Chart: Current Situation; Desired Situation; and Policies

4. Report (detailed text)

5. Questions On-going Real-Time Delphi questionnaires expert judgments

6. Comments (on any piece of information)

7. Updates – all edits

8. Computer models (mathematical and rules-based), and conceptual models

9. Resources: websites

10. Books

11. Papers

12. Digests – Dashboard of Recent updates in menu options

For further information

Jerome C. Glenn+1-202-686-5179 phone/fax

Jerome.Glenn@Millennium-Project.org

www.StateoftheFuture.org

Global Futures Intelligence System: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/GFIS.html

2015-16 State of the Future: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/201516SOF.html

Futures Research Methodology 3.0: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V3.html