A Geological Perspective On Global Warming
-
Upload
paul-schumann -
Category
Business
-
view
1.442 -
download
2
description
Transcript of A Geological Perspective On Global Warming
![Page 1: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
A GEOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE A GEOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE ON:ON:
Global WarmingGlobal Warming
Global & US Energy Global & US Energy FuturesFutures
Global Free MarketsGlobal Free Markets
. . . WHAT WE CAN . . . WHAT WE CAN DO NOWDO NOW
Peter R. Rose Past President,
American Association of Petroleum Geologists
Peter R. Rose Past President,
American Association of Petroleum Geologists
!!
![Page 2: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
1. Influence of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) NOT a settled scientific issue.
2. Alternative Energy Sources will BEGIN to replace conventional fossil fuels.
3. Robust, trustworthy Free-market Economy ESSENTIAL to the coming Energy Transition.
4. Effective Remedies we can agree on NOW.
OUTLINE
![Page 3: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
![Page 4: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
MEDIEVAL WARMING
LITTLE ICE AGE
![Page 5: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
![Page 6: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
![Page 7: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Earth temperature history from Greenland ice core data
Earth temperature history from Greenland ice core data
![Page 8: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
LESS ELLIPTICAL
MORE ELLIPTICALSHAPE OF EARTH’S ORBIT
![Page 10: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
W. Soon, 2010
![Page 12: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
W. Soon, 2010
![Page 13: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Insolation Temperature Track
C02 Doesn’tTrack Temp.
380 ppm
![Page 14: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
H. L. STEWARD 2008
CO2’s HEAT-TRAPPING CAPACITY DIMINISHES LOGARITHMICALLY
![Page 15: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
![Page 17: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
![Page 19: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
(Uncertain) Role of Clouds(Uncertain) Role of Clouds
• 95% of Greenhouse Gases = Water Vapor
• Influenced by Cosmic Rays
• Verifiable Feedback to Greenhouse Effect
– IPCC allies assume most feedbacks (+)
– Lindzen & Soon find many feedbacks (–)
![Page 20: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
SIGNIFICANCE OF “CLIMATEGATE”:SIGNIFICANCE OF “CLIMATEGATE”:1. Corruption of Climate Science
Academic and Government Scientists (U.K. & U.S.)
Destruction/Alteration of “Inconvenient” Data Abuse of Peer-Review Process Non-engagement with other Pertinent Science Influenced by Social Philosophy -- Politics;
Government Funding, Media Publicity, Financial Interests
2. Discredited UN IPCC3. Bad Science → Bad Policies
4. Wasted $, Lost Time
5. Public Loss of Confidence in Science
![Page 21: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
HUBER 2005
![Page 22: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
HUBER 2005
![Page 23: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
US ENERGY-SUPPLY CRISIS:
Convergence of Global Oil Supply & Demand
Approaching Plateau in Global Oil Production
Mortgaging of US Assets to Feed US Motor-fuel Addiction
Crude Oil as a Geopolitical Weapon
![Page 24: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Oil price vs OPEC spare
capacity
Oil price vs OPEC spare
capacity
Source : IEA, September 2005
OIL & GASA changing environment for future production
OIL & GASA changing environment for future production
2002 2010 2020 20301971 1990
World oil demand Mb/dWorld oil demand Mb/d
+ 1.6% / yr+ 1.6% / yr
77
90
107
121
50
66
TransportTransport
PetrochemicalsPetrochemicals
Non-energy useNon-energy use
HeatingHeating
ElectricityElectricity
A growing world oil demand
driven by transport fuels
A growing world oil demand
driven by transport fuels
Reduction of spare capacities
Spare capacity Brent price
Hc prices keeping high for long term
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 20040
10
20
30
40
50
60Mb/d $/b
Mb/d
![Page 25: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
RESERVES
CUMCRUDE
20082008
![Page 26: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
““How many US dollars went How many US dollars went overseas during 2005-2009 to pay overseas during 2005-2009 to pay for motor fuel burned in the US?”for motor fuel burned in the US?”
““How many US dollars went How many US dollars went overseas during 2005-2009 to pay overseas during 2005-2009 to pay for motor fuel burned in the US?”for motor fuel burned in the US?”
5 yrs x 365 days/yr x 21M bbl/day x 67% x ~$90/bbl–
GREATEST TRANSFER OF WEALTH IN HISTORY?
![Page 27: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Ru
ssia
Sau
di A
rabia
Iran
Iraq
Ku
wait
Ab
u D
hab
i
Qatar
Ven
ezuela
U. S
.
Rest o
f Wo
rldReserves
DISTRIBUTION OF KNOWN RESERVES*DISTRIBUTION OF KNOWN RESERVES*
67% OF KNOWN RESERVES ARE IN 9 COUNTRIES 43% OF KNOWN RESERVES ARE IN 7 MAJOR OPEC COUNTRIES
2.1 TBBOE2.1 TBBOE*Gas converted at5.6BCF = 1MMBOE
BBOE
BBOE
PetroconsultantsPetroconsultants
![Page 28: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Tinker, GCAGS DPA Keynote, 2004
QAd3931x
40
30
20
10
0
1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Qu
adri
llio
n B
tu
QAc8506c
U.S. Energy Consumption
Biomass
Coal
Petroleum
Naturalgas
Hydro.power
Nuclearpower
EIA, 2000, Annual Energy Review 1999, Appendix F, Tables F1a and F1b.
Up, up, up and away….
![Page 29: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Tinker, GCAGS DPA Keynote, 2004
QAd3931x
U.S. Energy Consumption
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1845
1870
1895
1920
1945
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
Qu
ad
BT
U
Renewable Energy
Hydroelectric
Nuclear Energy
Natural Gas
Oil Imported
Oil Produced
Coal
Wood and Waste
QAd1023QAd1023
U.S. Consumption
I ask kids about
renewables…
Data: Annual Energy Review 1999 (EIA, 2000)
![Page 30: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Tinker, GCAGS DPA Keynote, 2004
QAd3931x
Net Energy = Energy Produced - (Energy to Create + Energy to Operate)
U.S. Energy Comparison
Back to oil and
gas
![Page 31: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
A Healthy Fossil-fuel Industry will buy us time to make a safe transition into a Sustainable, Alternate-Energy FutureA Healthy Fossil-fuel Industry will buy us time to make a
safe transition into a Sustainable, Alternate-Energy Future
![Page 32: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
WHY WE MUST EXPAND U.S. NUCLEAR POWER NOW:
WHY WE MUST EXPAND U.S. NUCLEAR POWER NOW:
• Only Dependable 24/7 Alternative Energy Source
• High-volume Source of Electric Power• Re-cycling Spent Fuel Eliminates Nuclear-
waste Storage Problem• Operational Incidents Causing Nuclear
Power-station Accidents Can be Eliminated• No Toxic Emissions• Experience of French Nuclear-power
Industry
![Page 33: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
H. L. STEWARD 2008
Causes:AgricultureMedicineEnergy
![Page 34: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
SALVADOR 2005
WORLD POPULATION PROJECTIONWORLD POPULATION PROJECTION
![Page 35: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
REQUIREMENTS FOR SUCCESSFUL TRANSITION TO SUSTAINABLE US ENERGY
SOCIETYRealistic National Energy Policy: Absent for 30 years
Constructive Industry-Government Relationships: to Optimize Planning, Prioritization & Support of R&D
Massive Investments: Requires Robust, Trustworthy Free-market Investment Sector
Stable High Energy Prices and/or Government Support: to Encourage Conservation and Long-term Investments
Accelerated Construction of Nuclear Power Plants: Expanded Electric-power Generation
Maintain US Fossil-fuel Industry: as “Bridge to the Future”
![Page 36: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
CONSERVATIONCONSERVATION The quickest, cheapest way to reduce U.S.
Energy Consumption Translate “Green Activism” to country-wide
“Energy Frugality Ethic” For motor fuels, reinforce by gradual increase
in gasoline & diesel taxes dedicated to alternate energy development
(1978-1990) History: U.S. became much more Energy Efficient, then wasted it on SUVs, “McMansions”, Frivolous appliances., etc.
Problem: How to make Energy Frugality a Permanent National Value
![Page 37: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
CAVEAT TO ENVIRONMENTALISTS:
CAVEAT TO ENVIRONMENTALISTS:
“The Adoption of Proactive and Sustained Environmental Programs Depends Upon a Healthy Economy”
We Must Stop Getting Stampeded by Ill-founded, Apocalyptic Scare TacticsWe Must Stop Getting Stampeded by
Ill-founded, Apocalyptic Scare Tactics
![Page 38: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
GOOD NEWS IGOOD NEWS I -- --
I. Transportation:• Lighter-weight vehicles & higher MPG’s• Battery-powered autos & reduced speed limits• Higher taxes on motor fuels & heavier vehicles• Natural-gas powered trucks, buses & autos• Shifting long-range freight to railroads • Efficient ethanol production (NOT CORN!)
We don’t have to accept Anthropogenic Global Warming to support many measures needed NOW for a healthy US Energy Future!
![Page 39: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
GOOD NEWS IIGOOD NEWS II -- --
II. Other Sectors:• Improved Energy Efficiency -- Residential, Commercial,
Industrial
• Upgrade National Power Grid
• Gov’t support of Alternative Energy Sources -- R&D
• Maximize US Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• Re-invigorate Nuclear Power
• Educate Energy Workforce
We don’t have to accept Anthropogenic Global Warming to support many measures needed NOW for a healthy US Energy Future!
![Page 40: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
GOOD NEWS IIIGOOD NEWS III -- --
U.S. Natural Gas Recoverable Resources have Increased by about 35% since 2006, a Current 100-year Supply at Present Consumption Rates.
- - “Now, How to Gain Access - - “Now, How to Gain Access to Gas-productive Lands?”to Gas-productive Lands?”
![Page 41: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
GOOD NEWS IVGOOD NEWS IV -- --
Development of Alternative and Diversified Energy Sources can Provide Fruitful new Investment Opportunities to Revitalize the US Investment Sector.
![Page 42: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
BAD NEWSBAD NEWS -- --
Proposed “Cap and Trade” or Carbon Tax measures to restrict Energy Use are unnecessary and self-penalizing to the recovery of a robust economy -- especially since Developing Nations will exempt themselves.
![Page 43: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
DEALING WITH LONG-TERM NATIONAL ISSUES
1) FREE-MARKET OPTION: Problem: Free market Capitalism is ineffective in dealing with long-term problems (discounting of future cash flows assigns little or no value to cash flows beyond 15 -20 years. U. S. markets focus on short-term results).
2) GOVERNMENT CONTROL OPTION: Problem: Global experience of 1950-1990 showed that "Planned Economies" do not work.
3) NATIONAL POLICY OPTION: Solution: Non-partisan consensus can allow an informed democratic society to deal with important long-term issues such as Energy (prior U. S. examples -- Space program; Clean air/water acts; Smoking; Civil rights). Requirements: Communication of facts and consequences, Education; Open dialog; Shared sacrifices; Real bipartisan political leadership; Continuity of policy.
![Page 44: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Ingredients for Future Recovery• Communicating the problem
(education)• Trustworthy free-market economy• Informed leadership and media• Insistence on responsible politicians• A new national purpose and character• Sharing the pain of Conservation
WE CAN DO THIS!WE CAN DO THIS!
![Page 45: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Future generations depend on us to make good decisions.
Future generations depend on us to make good decisions.
![Page 46: A Geological Perspective On Global Warming](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081518/549e6421b37959be618b46cf/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
A GEOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE A GEOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE ON:ON:
Global WarmingGlobal Warming
Global & US Energy Global & US Energy FuturesFutures
Global Free MarketsGlobal Free Markets
. . . WHAT WE CAN . . . WHAT WE CAN DO NOWDO NOW
Peter R. RosePast President,
American Association of Petroleum Geologists
Peter R. RosePast President,
American Association of Petroleum Geologists
!!