1. The Future of Communities inAmericas Resurgent HeartlandA Futurists View of Rural Minnesota
Delore Zimmerman, Ph.D.
President

2. The Heartland is made up of places whose economy and traditions are deeply rooted in farming, mining, forestry or fishing but are now finding their way in the globally competitive, network-centric economy. Its a religious, family-centered archipelago of regions where civility, education, a focus on marriage and children, and accommodations to create a balance between work and family are commonplace.
The resurgence is due to the fact that the pillars of the Heartland economy food, energy, and manufacturing are and will be in high demand in the global economy.
Americas Resurgent Heartland
3. Todays Webinar

The Resurgent Heartland

4. Thinking About the Future 5. Leveraging Trends Working in the Heartlands Favor 6. High Performance Community Strategies 7. Building Communities of AspirationAmericas Resurgent Heartland
8. Todays Webinar
Foresight Exercises
Trends and momentum that our community can align our efforts with to create opportunities
Target opportunities that our community can focus on to have the most economic impact
Tell a compelling story that will commit people to the possibilities
Americas Resurgent Heartland
9. Historical Contributions of the Heartlandto the Nation
Food
Cheap food -average cost today is 10% of disposable income for Americans
Talent
Migration to urban centers of educated workers
Values
Work ethic
Sense of patriotism & civic responsibility
Religiosity & family values
Frontier opportunity - the national outlet
10. Repository of the Entrepreneurial Spirit
Almost all the farmers of the United States combine some trade with agriculture; most of them make agriculture itself a trade.
Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America
11. Changing Role of the Heartland
Economic function is no longer primarily the production side of agriculture
10% of rural people today live on farms
14% of rural workforce employed in farming
The heartland is urbanizing
Micropolitans growing and acquiring more urban amenities
Approximately three-fifths of non-metro residents are micropolitans
One in 10 Americans live in micros
Rural (non-core) areas that are growing are high amenity areas and places with critical mass in terms of infrastructure and skilled people
12. Migration Trend 1960-2000
13. 14. Regionalization Marches OnMetropolitan & Micropolitanruralplex
15. Americas Residential Preferences
Pew Research Center 2009
16. 17. Overall Rural Economy:
Reliance on Government + Manufacturing
25
20
15
Metropolitan
Micropolitan
Rural
10
5
0
Government
Construction
Information
Natural resources
Manufacturing
Professional and business services
Education health care and social assistance
Financial activities
Retail and wholesale trade
Transportation warehousing and utilities
Leisure hospitality and other
Earnings percent of total by sector
18. Occupation of Civilian Employed Population 16 years and overMetropolitan, Micropolitan, Outside Metro/Micro
Source: The American Community Survey (ACS) 2008
19. Points of Departure for the 21st Century
Rural areas emerged from the 1990s having experienced a strong economic rebound.These gains, however, were highly concentrated.40 percent of rural economies, namely those with scenic amenities, proximity to metropolitan areas, or ability to transform themselves into commercial hubs, accounted for nearly all growth.
CAPITALIZING ON RURAL AMERICA: CRAFTING A COMPETITIVE FUTURE. A Study by SRI International for the Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines. 2005.
20. Amenities-driven
Black Hills Region, South Dakota
St. George, Utah
Wenatchee Valley, Washington
Bozeman, Montana
Heartland Growth NodesRegions that Are Thriving
Technology-driven (re-emerging hubs)
Red River Valley, ND/MN
Sioux Falls, South Dakota
Des Moines, Iowa
Greenwood, Mississippi
21. A Short History of Technology:
Red River Valley Corridor
Food processing
Biotech Services
Genomics
Digital imaging
Business solutions software/systems
Nanotechnology
Electronics
Polymers & coatings
Wireless technology
Off-road vehicles
Crop &
Livestock
Science
Crop
Farming &
Animal
Husbandry
Agri-business
Management
& Finance
Machinery
&
Equipment
1870s1950s2000
22. Forces of Renewal
Nationwide people heading to smaller towns and cities
Housing prices on coasts reach critical level
Social trends strongly pro-rural
US population growth will increase interest in rural and small town areas
Technological evolution permits dispersion and accelerates opportunities
23. Forces of Transformation and Renewal
Foresight Exercise
What do you believe will be the one trend or force of transformation that most impacts your community in the foreseeable future?
What existing momentum can we build on to create opportunities for the future?
24. Looking Ahead

More of the same?

25. Transition and transformation? 26. Disruptive change?