A Digital Railway System, and what it means for operators ...
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| | Risk Seminar Francesco Corman [email protected] 23.10.2019 1 A Digital Railway System, and what it means for operators and users F. Corman
Transcript of A Digital Railway System, and what it means for operators ...
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Risk Seminar
Francesco Corman
23.10.2019 1
A Digital Railway System,
and what it means for operators and users
F. Corman
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Digitalization
enables
accurate
quantification/
feedback/
control/
shift
Overall concept of this slides
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Risk/uncertainty
with high probability,
small exposure-vulnerability
Risk/uncertainty
with smaller probability,
larger exposure-vulnerability
Risk = probability x intensity x exposure x vulnerability
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Challenges in railway systems
Infrastructure capacity is money intensive, inflexible, slow to build, in large steps
Operations tightly constrained and interrelated, with small operative margins
Variability in operations causes delay propagation to traffic, impacting passengers
Increasing traffic worsens performance, amplifying delay propagation
Increasing quality expectations, passengers, competition; economic efficiency
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||F. Corman 4Utilization rate [train km per track km]
Pu
nctu
alit
y =
Qu
alit
yRailway network currently used extensively and with high quality
[Du
tch
Ra
ilwa
ys N
S, 2
01
8]
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Delays in Switzerland exist (Graffagnino et al 2012)
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Instability due to many
controllable/incontrollable
internal/external
factors
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Massive growth expected
vulnerability to instability
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Public Transport/Railway
51% growth 20102040
In 2040, compared to 2010:
+37% ton km
+25 % passenger km
+28% population increase
+46% economy increase
2040
[Federal Statistic Office, BFS OFS
Pocket Statistics 2018][Federal Office for Spatial Development ARE OFDT,
Perspective 2040]23.10.2019
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Potential from digitalization
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?
Understand
Delay phenomena
Fusing unreliable GPS with
reliable track-based data
Predict
Determining values for future
phenomena
Identifying future situations
Optimize
Deciding against possible
situations
?
Digital railway system23.10.2019
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010 2 3
01
00
@#
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How to get there? Need to shifts risks/uncertainties
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Train safety
Train movement
Traffic management
Infrastructure Planning
Timetable Planning
Delay management
Where is a train?Where is a train?
Where should a train be?Where should a train be?
Where will a train be?Where will a train be?
Where should all trains be?Where should all trains be?
Where do passengers want trains to be?Where do passengers want trains to be?
How to make it possible for trains to be
where they should?
How to make it possible for trains to be
where they should?
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How to get there? Need to shifts risks/uncertainties
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Train safety
Train movement
Traffic management
Infrastructure Planning
Timetable Planning
Delay management
Positioning
Risk = probability x intensity x exposure x vulnerability
high low high low
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Understand - positioning
Impact of bad data collection: positioning of trains, GPS signaling system
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Fusing power data with speed
reduces position uncertainty
in GPS blackout areas
to operationally useful levels
Fusing power data with speed
reduces position uncertainty
in GPS blackout areas
to operationally useful levels
Ses
sa, P
.G.,
De
Mar
tinis
, V.,
Cor
man
, F
(20
19)
CA
CA
IE
Position estimate, no measure
Position estimate, power measured
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Systemic risks – the example of fully automated train operations
Railway has very high safety already
Control of speed and variability less variations, increased punctuality
High precision control as enabler of reduction of margins increased capacity
Risks of shutdown of system whenever a human-acceptable,
but machine-unacceptable situation appears
Ultimately, reliability or performance could decrease
(e.g. over protective advanced signaling systems)
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How to get there? Need to shifts risks/uncertainties
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Train safety
Train movement
Traffic management
Infrastructure Planning
Timetable Planning
Delay managementTraffic operations
Risk = probability x intensity x exposure x vulnerability
low to high low high low-medium
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We have little clue whether delays will increase/decrease with time
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Accuracy of weather forecast 6 days in 2010,
better than 2 days in 1970 [Deutscher Wetterdienst]%
Accura
te p
redic
tions
2 days, 4 days, 6 days ahead
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Railway operations and delays are interrelated stochastic processes,
but most often considered as deterministic process
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Predictions – impact into decisions affecting future traffic
“Things are almost constant”
Adjusting operating plan, departures,
train crossings, transfers
Resource allocation – drivers, vehicles
Passengers might take wrong services,
or face delays
Bayesian network approaches might help
not only predict, but also understand
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Büc
hel,
Cor
man
( 2
020)
TR
Boa
rdC
orm
an K
ecm
an (
201
7) T
RC
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Reassigning capacity in real time: Railway traffic control
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Based on a current network state,
determine traffic control actions (retiming; reordering, rerouting, cancelling,…)
e.g. should the yellow train overtake the blue?
which proactively reduce delays and delay propagation,
in a short computation time
?
tim
e
tim
e
} arrival time
delay
} arrival time
delay
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State of practice potential of decision support
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High probability, small vulnerability: delays
Alternative Graph Approach for optimization
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Traffic Control Algorithms:
Optimized Orders
First In First Out
Rule-based
Keep the Timetable Order
Variation in observed delays decreasesVariation in observed delays decreases
Cor
man
et a
l (
2011
) T
PT
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Bringing passengers into the picture - delays
Compliance
Information availability
and dissemination
Real time information
on passengers
Existence of suboptimal
User Equilibria
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Cor
man
et a
l; (2
016)
TR
par
t E
Delaying trains instead of passengers:
12% shorter travel time vs timetable
Delaying trains instead of passengers:
12% shorter travel time vs timetable
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Small probability, larger vulnerability: disruptions
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2012 2013 2014 2015
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Passengers as a key aspect in disruptions
Agent-based models
estimate passenger evaluation
of disruption
Modelling different information
availability strategies
Variability in impact
Further potential to decrease
impact changes by managing
the system
23.10.2019F. Corman 20Best reactive information only slightly
worse than proactive information
Best reactive information only slightly
worse than proactive information
reactive information one order of
magnitude better than no information
reactive information one order of
magnitude better than no information
Leng
, Cor
man
CA
SP
T 2
018
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How to get there? Planning for uncertainty
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Train safety
Train movement
Traffic management
Infrastructure Planning
Timetable Planning
Delay management
Planning
Risk = probability x intensity x exposure x vulnerability
low low-medium high low-medium
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Switzerland typically investing heavily in hardware –
railway infrastructure very expensive and long time to delivery
STEP Ausbau Schritte 2035 : 11 Billion CHF for new infrastructure
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[Federal Office for Transport BAV-OFT, 2017]23.10.2019
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Investing in timetable planning?
In demand management?
Digitalization allows better quantification of
performance of plans regarding the demand
How much risks in transport performance
we can manage by just a better software?
How much risks in capacity/transport performance
we can manage by changing demand patterns?
E.g. reducing peak demand
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Am
stut
z 20
19
||
Digitalization
enables
accurate
quantification/
feedback/
control/
shift
Conclusion - Overall concept of this slides
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Risk/uncertainty
with high probability,
small exposure-vulnerability
Risk/uncertainty
with smaller probability,
larger exposure-vulnerability
Risk = probability x intensity x exposure x vulnerability
||
Risk Seminar
Francesco Corman
23.10.2019 25
A Digital Railway System,
and what it means for operators and users
F. Corman
