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A Cubic Mile of Oil Realities and Options for Averting the Global Energy Crisis Ripudaman Malhotra, Ph.D., SRI International, Menlo Park, CA 94025 The energy challenge: A tough choice ahead Current pracces of energy producon and use are unsustainable: - Supplies are becoming scarce, and it is hard to meet demand - Energy producon and use threaten the environment But energy use is central to our way of life, and the consequences of not meeng future energy demands are dire: - We will condemn large segments of the populaon to lives of poverty - Energy scarcity may lead to unrest and conflict over resources A comprehensive energy policy must acknowledge the magnitude of the problem How much energy do we use? Energy from various sources is measured in different units To facilitate a discussion of energy, we introduce a new unit of energy, a cubic mile of oil (CMO), which is a term for a visual unit of measure coined by SRI’s Hew Crane while he waited in the 1970s gas lines. His realizaon: annual global oil consumpon was then approaching one cubic mile! mile mile mile Statue of Liberty • 1 CMO ~ = 1.1 trillion gallons of oil (26 billion (10⁹) barrels oil) • 1 CMO ~ = current annual worldwide oil consumpon • 1 CMO is equivalent to: 153 quadrillion (10¹⁵) Btu (Quads) 6.4 billion (10⁹) tons of hard coal 15.3 trillion (10¹²) kWh electricity (Numbers calculated at 10,000 Btu/kWh, which is a more realisc conversion factor than the standard of 3,412 Btu/kWh) Electricity 36% Industrial 22% Industrial 32% Commercial/Residenal 13% Commercial/ Residenal 39% Transportaon 29% Transportaon 29% More than a third goes into producing electricity, which is used in other sectors Distribuon aſter apporoning the energy for electricity into sectors that use it How do we use energy? In the USA 2.6% 1.8% 0.8% 270 CMO 214 CMO 163 CMO 179 CMO Recent energy growth rate: 2.5%/yr Annual GDP growth rate: World: 5.5% China: 11% India: 9% 10.00 9.00 8.00 Energy Demand (CMO) Year 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 From 3.0 CMO/yr we are moving to 9.0 CMO/yr Variable profile Projected energy demand by 2050 Soluons must scale to the level of 1 CMO/year to make a meaningful impact! Where is energy produced and consumed? 1.0 0.9 0.8 CMO 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 North America Russian Group Asian/Pacific Middle East/ North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Hydropower Nuclear Power Coal Gas Oil Europe Central/South America 0 What drives energy consumpon? Standard of living, not populaon alone, drives energy use 2000 1800 1600 Per Capita Annual Energy Consumpon (GO) 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 1000 2000 3000 Populaon (millions) North America (0.72) Europe (0.51) Russian Group (0.26) Central/South America (0.15) Global Average Mid-East/North America (0.15) Sub-Saharan Africa (0.06) Asia/Pacific (0.94) Addional 1.48 CMO Addional 0.68 CMO 4000 5000 6000 7000 8 hours of cardio: ~ = 1 kWh ~ = 0.1 gal of oil In 2006, global energy consumpon was 3 CMOs/year! Oil 1.06 Coal 0.81 Natural Gas 0.61 Geothermal <0.01 Biomass 0.19 Nuclear 0.15 Hydroelectric 0.17 Wind + Photovoltaic + Solar Thermal <0.03 1 Btu ~ = the energy from a burning match
Transcript of A Cubic Mile of Oil - Oxford University Press - homepage Cubic Mile of Oil Realities and Options for...
A Cubic Mile of OilRealities and Options for Averting the Global Energy Crisis
Ripudaman Malhotra, Ph.D., SRI International, Menlo Park, CA 94025
The energy challenge: A tough choice ahead
Current practices of energy production and use are unsustainable: - Supplies are becoming scarce, and it is hard to meet demand - Energy production and use threaten the environment
But energy use is central to our way of life, and the consequences of not meeting future energy demands are dire: - We will condemn large segments of the population
to lives of poverty - Energy scarcity may lead to unrest and conflict over resources
A comprehensive energy policy must acknowledge the magnitude of the problem
How much energy do we use?
Energy from various sources is measured in different unitsTo facilitate a discussion of energy, we introduce a new unit of energy, a cubic mile of oil (CMO), which is a term for a visual unit of measure coined by SRI’s Hew Crane while he waited in the 1970s gas lines. His realization: annual global oil consumption was then approaching one cubic mile!
mile
mile
mile
Statue of Liberty
• 1 CMO ~= 1.1 trillion gallons of oil (26 billion (10⁹) barrels oil)• 1 CMO ~= current annual worldwide oil consumption• 1 CMO is equivalent to: 153 quadrillion (10¹⁵) Btu (Quads) 6.4 billion (10⁹) tons of hard coal 15.3 trillion (10¹²) kWh electricity (Numbers calculated at
10,000 Btu/kWh, which is a more realistic conversion factor than the standard of 3,412 Btu/kWh)
Electricity36%
Industrial22%
Industrial32%
Commercial/Residential 13%
Commercial/Residential
39%
Transportation29%
Transportation29%
More than a third goes into producing electricity, which is used in other sectors
Distribution after apportioning the energy for electricity into sectors that use it
How do we use energy?In the USA
2.6%
1.8%
0.8%
270 CMO
214 CMO
163 CMO
179 CMO
Recent energy growth rate: 2.5%/yrAnnual GDP growth rate: World: 5.5% China: 11% India: 9%
10.00
9.00
8.00
Ener
gy D
eman
d (C
MO
)
Year
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
From 3.0 CMO/yr we are moving to 9.0 CMO/yr
Variable profile
Projected energy demand by 2050
Solutions must scale to the level of 1 CMO/year to make a meaningful impact!
Where is energy produced and consumed?1.0
0.9
0.8
CMO
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
NorthAmerica
RussianGroup
Asian/Pacific Middle East/North Africa
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Hydropower
Nuclear Power
Coal
Gas
Oil
EuropeCentral/SouthAmerica
0
What drives energy consumption?Standard of living, not population alone, drives energy use
2000
1800
1600
Per
Capi
ta A
nnua
l Ene
rgy
Cons
umpti
on (G
O)
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
00 1000 2000 3000
Population (millions)
Nor
th A
mer
ica
(0.7
2)
Euro
pe (0
.51)
Russ
ian
Gro
up (0
.26)
Central/SouthAmerica (0.15)
Global Average
Mid-East/NorthAmerica (0.15)
Sub-SaharanAfrica (0.06)
Asia/Pacific (0.94)
Additional 1.48 CMO
Additional 0.68 CMO
4000 5000 6000 70008 hours of cardio: ~= 1 kWh ~= 0.1 gal of oil
In 2006, global energy consumption was 3 CMOs/year!
Oil1.06
Coal0.81
Natural Gas0.61
Geothermal <0.01Biomass 0.19
Nuclear 0.15
Hydroelectric 0.17 Wind + Photovoltaic + Solar Thermal <0.03
1 Btu ~=the energy froma burning match
TIME WEIT’S
FOREIGN DEPENDENCE!
END
OIL
Don’t waste
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Get involved
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Assured (95%)
Reserves
Conventional resources
Unconventional resources Heavy oil Coal bed methane Tar sands Tight sands Oil shale Gas hydrates
Likely (50%)
Speculative (5%)
More likely
Less likely
Reserves depend on technology and price!
Additional resources become viable with improved technologies and at higher prices…
Considerations in changing the global energy mix
Does the source have CMO-scale potential to supply energy?
What infrastructure is required for large-scale deployment?- Is it plug-and-play?- Will it require new pipelines, transmission structures?
What is its environmental footprint?- Energy return on fossil energy invested?- Competing land and water use issues?- Biodiversity, habitat destruction?
Can it compete with oil at $50/barrel?
Competition for green energy comes from cheap fossil sources,not other green sources
Producing 1 CMO/year from various sources is an enormous task requiring trillions of $
*In CMO units
42 46
120Reserves
94AdditionalResources
66AdditionalResources
400Unconventional
Tar sands, oil shales
5,000Unconventional
Gas hydrates
1,500AdditionalResource
Reserves
Oil* Gas* Coal*
How much oil, gas, and coal do we have left?
We have plenty of fossil resources, but mostly in unconventional reserves
Conventional fuels will be needed to support energy needs while we switch to other sources
Continued use of these energy sources increases atmospheric CO₂ levels
Problems associated with scaling up alternative technologiesExpansion slowed by:
- Inertia of the incumbent system (sheer size)- Market acceptability (cost)- Resource limitation- Infrastructure requirement- Lack of trained personnel- NIMBY (not in my backyard)- NOPE (not on planet earth)- BANANA (build absolutely nothing, anywhere near anything!)
More rapid penetration possible when aided by:- Strategic importance to military- High-value products for niche markets
Producing 1 CMO/year from alternative technologiesHydroelectric 18 GW with 50% availability (av.) 200 dams – 1 every quarter for 50 years
Nuclear 900 MW with 90% av. 2,500 plants – 1 a week for 50 years
Solar CSP 900 MW with 25% av. 7,700 solar parks – 3 a week for 50 years
Windmills 1.65 MW with 35% av. 3 million – 1,200 a week for 50 years
Solar Roofs 2.1 kW with 20% av. 4.2 billion – 250,000 roofs a day for 50 years
What is the path forward?Time is of the essence!Innovation is needed on all fronts to meet future energy needsReducing demand from 9 to 6 CMOs will be a majorinternational effort requiring new technologiesOur planning cycle needs to last 40 years, not 4 years, and transcend the prevailing price of oilTo make an impact, we need all technology options and more…AND is the operative conjunction!
What are the alternative energy sources?The sun offers 23,000 CMO/year in the form of heat, wind, hydroelectric, photovoltaic, and biomass sources
But changing the energy mix takes many decades!
Perc
ent T
otal
Prim
ary
Ener
gy fr
om V
ario
us R
esou
rces
Year
Wood/Biomass
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Coal
Nuclear
Wood/Biomass
Oil
Coal ~1880
~1940
~1960
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
01850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
