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Transcript of A Cost Benefit Analysis Prepared for Brian Bell, Elections Data Manager Government Accountability...
Voter List Maintenance
A Cost Benefit Analysis
Prepared for Brian Bell, Elections Data ManagerGovernment Accountability Board
By: Dorothy Cheng, Brett Halverson,John Magnino, Daniel Marlin,
Matthew Mayeshiba, Mai Choua Thao
◦ What is it? Process of suspending inaccurate or inactive voter
registrations
◦ Why do it? Maintaining accurate voter records Administrative cost savings
◦ In Wisconsin, VLM is mandated by state statute
Voter List Maintenance (VLM) – An Overview
VLM in Practice
1. Current Policy (GAB Mass Mailing) 2. GAB Use of the Postal Service’s National
Change of Address (NCOA) Database 3. Municipal Use of Mass Mailing 4. Municipal Use of USPS NCOA Database
Policy Alternatives
Cost of postage ◦ 17% increase
Cost of printing◦ 336% increase
Cost of NCOA◦ $53,000 across 1,047 municipalities
Costs of Municipal-Level Alternatives
1. Current Policy (GAB Mass Mailing) 2. GAB Use of the Postal Service’s National
Change of Address (NCOA) Database 3. Municipal Use of Mass Mailing 4. Municipal Use of USPS NCOA Database
Policy Alternatives
3. GAB Use of Mass Mailing and USPS NCOA Database (Hybrid Option)
Current Policy
No vote cast in
election
2014
No vote cast in
election
2016
GAB sends “Notice of
Suspension” postcard to
address on file
Spring 2017
NCOA Alternative
Voter moves
Voter not flagged by
NCOA
GAB sends “Notice of
Suspension” postcard to
address on file
Voter does not move
Voter flagged by
NCOA
Voter stays on voter rolls indefinitely
2014 Within 6 months
Hybrid Option
Voter moves
Voter not flagged by
NCOA
GAB sends “Notice of
Suspension” postcard to
address on file
Voter does not move
Voter flagged by
NCOA
2014 Within 6 months
No vote cast in two consecutive election cycles
GAB sends “Notice of
Suspension” postcard to
address on file
2014 through 2016 2017
Mailing Process (All Alternatives)
Postcards Sent by
GAB
Voter sends postcard back to
continue registration
Postcard returned as undeliverable
Postcard is delivered, but not
returned
Municipal Clerk processes
continuation
Municipal Clerk inactivates voter
registration
After 30 days, GAB inactivates voter
registration
VLM in Practice
NCOA Startup Costs ($14,000)
NCOA Contract ($5,750)
Printing and Mailing One Postcard ($0.30)
Staff Costs from Processing One Postcard◦ Continuation ($0.96)◦ Undeliverable ($1.09)◦ Unreturned ($0.00)
Costs of VLM
Type I error: Cost of Incorrectly Leaving One Invalid Voter on the Voter Rolls ($0.05)
Type II error: Cost of Incorrectly Inactivating a Valid Voter from the Voter Rolls ($8.36)
Costs of VLM (continued)
Results: Net Present Value
Staff time costs associated with processing undeliverable postcards
Quantifying Type II errors
Additional social cost of errors◦ Voter fraud◦ Disenfranchisement
Limitations
Questions?
Table 1. Number of Postcards Sent After the 2012 General Election, by Municipal-LevelRange Number of
MunicipalitiesPercent of All Municipalities
Number of Postcards Sent
Percent of Total Postcards Sent
0 to 19 408 21.35% 4294 1.43%20 to 39 522 27.32% 15389 5.13%40 to 59 301 15.75% 14696 4.90%60 to 79 163 8.53% 11144 3.72%80 to 99 99 5.18% 8827 2.94%100 to 249 234 12.24% 35564 11.86%250 to 499 95 4.97% 32412 10.81%500 to 999 46 2.41% 30631 10.22%1000 to 7000 41 2.15% 89042 29.71%over 7000 2 0.10% 57749 19.27%Total 1911 -- 299748 --Source: 2012-2013 Four-Year Voter Record Maintenance Statistics by Municipality, Compiled by the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board (GAB) on May 16, 2013.
Rule Out Municipal-Level Policies
Table 2. Number of Postcards Sent After the 2012 General Election, by County-LevelRange Number of
CountiesPercent of All Counties
Number of Postcards Sent
Percent of Total Postcards Sent
300 to 999 22 30.56% 15465 5.16%1000 to 1999 14 19.44% 19552 6.52%2000 to 4999 22 30.56% 70811 23.62%5000 to 9999 9 12.50% 66861 22.31%over 10000 5 6.94% 127059 42.39%Total 72 -- 299748 --Source: 2012-2013 Four-Year Voter Record Maintenance Statistics by County, Compiled by the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board (GAB) on May 16, 2013.
Rule Out County-Level policies
Table 6.2-1. Percent of Voters Identified As Inactive
Date of List Maintenance
Registered Voters
Postcards Sent
Percentage
February 1, 2009 3,502,196 313,205 12.52%
April 14, 2011 3,493,927 240,226 6.88%
March 25, 2013 3,690,529 299,748 8.12%
VLM Across Time
Table 6.2-2. Percent of Voters Registered with the NCOAState - Date of NCOA Registered Voters Voters
IdentifiedPercentage
Minnesota - 2012 3,387,783 115,129 3.40%
Ohio - 2012 6,031,860 296,327 4.91%
% of Voters Registered with NCOA
Number of names per poll book sheet 20
Average unit cost of printing poll book sheet $.15467
Number of poll books per polling place 2
Average Number of elections in a year 3
Type I Error Marginal Cost $.046
Type I Error Costs
Net Benefits Equation
𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝐵𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑡𝑠=𝐶𝑁𝐶𝑂𝐴+𝐶𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔+𝐶𝑀𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔+𝐶𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑓𝑓 +𝐶𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐼+𝐶𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐼𝐼
Cost of Printing Notification Postcards
Cost of Mailing Notification Postcards
𝐶𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔=𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑×𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠
𝐶𝑀𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔=𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠×( ¿ (𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑙×𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑙 )¿+¿∧(𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑓𝑢𝑙𝑙𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒×𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑓𝑢𝑙𝑙𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 )¿+¿∧(𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑟𝑡×𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑟𝑡 ) )
Cost of Processing Returned Postcards
𝐶𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑓𝑓¿
=𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑠
¿ ×( ¿ (𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 ×𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛×𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒)¿+¿∧ (𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒× 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒×𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒)¿+¿∧ (𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑢𝑛𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑒𝑑× 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑢𝑛𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑒𝑑×𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒) )¿
¿
Type I Errors = Cost of Failing to Remove Ineligible Voters
Type II Errors = Cost of Incorrectly Removing Voters Who Have Not Moved
𝐶𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐼𝐼
¿=𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑡 2𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟𝑠 ×(( ¿ (𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑊𝐼𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒×𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑖𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒)
¿×¿ (𝑇𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡+𝑇 h𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑐 +𝑇𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑟 ))+(
¿𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒¿×
¿𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑒)+( ¿𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑤𝑎𝑔𝑒
¿×¿𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔))¿
Annual Costs
Projected Total Costs of Current Policy
1.10
1.14
1.18
1.22
1.26
1.30
1.34
1.38
1.42
1.46
1.50
1.54
1.58
1.62
1.66
1.70
1.74
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Figure 13.2-1: Total Costs for Current Policy
Total Costs (in $millions)
Fre
quen
cy
Projected Net Present Benefits of NCOA-Only Alternative
0.28
0.32
0.36
0.40
0.44
0.48
0.52
0.56
0.60
0.64
0.68
0.72
0.76
0.80
0.84
0.88
0.92
0.96
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Table 13.2-2: Net Present Value of NCOA Alternative
Net Present Value (in $millions)
Fre
quen
cy
Projected Net Present Benefits of Hybrid Option
-0.32
-0.28
-0.24
-0.20
-0.16
-0.12
-0.08
-0.04 0.0
00.0
40.0
80.1
20.1
60.2
00.2
40.2
80.3
20.3
60.4
00.4
40.4
80%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%Table 13.2-3: Net Present Value of Hybrid Alternative
Net Present Value (in $millions)
Fre
quen
cy