A Contrarian Discussion Science is a tool to study the Universe and it is not necessarily the study...

A Contrarian Discussion Science is a tool to study the Universe and it is not necessarily the study of truth. In fact, scientists adopt the best hypothesis available even if there are serious flaws within that idea. Experimental Data is Crucial.

Part 1 First in Last Out

James Lovelock & Gaia "Life, or the biosphere, regulates or maintains the climate and the atmospheric composition at an optimum for itself. - James Lovelock

Another Hypothesis? CO2 Levels are increasing. This is of serious concern because these increases may lead to climate changes that have unintended negative consequences. The cause of the increase is human induced; however not from the direct burning of fossil fuel. Only 16% of the increase in CO2 can be attributed to Fossil Fuels, leaving a large unknown source. Increasing atmospheric CO2 levels is the indirect result of the industrial production and addition of various Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Carbon fertilizers to the biosphere. These fertilizers increase Net Primary Productivity which leads to more plant growth and more CO2. There is more rapid cycling of CO2 from the atmosphere into plant growth via photosynthesis and back again through respiration. A possible CO2 source is symbiotic mycorrhizal bioerosion of limestone in Karst Geology by deep tree roots. These soil microbes release CO2 from the rocks to the plant roots and ultimately to the atmosphere. Other sources are not ruled out, such as ocean upwelling or direct carbonic acid limestone erosion. There is no obvious remedy for this situation without starving billions of people.

Bioerosion of Terrestrial Limestone is Consistent with dC13 of -8 mil in Atmosphere Ocean Surface = -10 0 / 00 Why is atm. dC13 greater than dC13 of reservoirs?

Also, On time-scales of ~100 years, there are only two reservoirs that can naturally exchange large quantities of CO2 with the atmosphere: the oceans and the land biosphere (forests and soils). The mass of carbon (carbon is the C in CO2) must be conserved. If the atmospheric CO2 increase was caused, even in part, by carbon emitted from the oceans or the land, we would measure a carbon decrease in these two reservoirs. - Corinne Le Qur, University of East Anglia (7 June 2005) www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/06/how-much-of-the- recent-cosub2sub-increase-is-due-to-human-activities/

Plant Foliage is Increasing Impact of CO 2 fertilization on maximum foliage cover across the globe's warm, arid environments Randall J. Donohue 1,*, Michael L. Roderick 2,3,4, Tim R. McVicar 1, Graham D. Farquhar 2 Article first published online: 19 JUN 2013 DOI: 10.1002/grl.50563 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 1] Satellite observations reveal a greening of the globe over recent decades. The role in this greening of the CO 2 fertilization effectthe enhancement of photosynthesis due to rising CO 2 levelsis yet to be established. The direct CO 2 effect on vegetation should be most clearly expressed in warm, arid environments where water is the dominant limit to vegetation growth. Using gas exchange theory, we predict that the 14% increase in atmospheric CO 2 (19822010) led to a 5 to 10% increase in green foliage cover in warm, arid environments. Satellite observations, analyzed to remove the effect of variations in precipitation, show that cover across these environments has increased by 11%. Our results confirm that the anticipated CO 2 fertilization effect is occurring alongside ongoing anthropogenic perturbations to the carbon cycle and that the fertilization effect is now a significant land surface process.

A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the Worlds Forests Yude Pan 1 Yude Pan 1,*, et al* 1 U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Newtown Square, PA 19073, USA. Abstract The terrestrial carbon sink has been large in recent decades, but its size and location remain uncertain. Using forest inventory data and long-term ecosystem carbon studies, we estimate a total forest sink of 2.4 0.4 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year 1 ) globally for 1990 to 2007. We also estimate a source of 1.3 0.7 Pg C year 1 from tropical land-use change, consisting of a gross tropical deforestation emission of 2.9 0.5 Pg C year 1 partially compensated by a carbon sink in tropical forest regrowth of 1.6 0.5 Pg C year 1. Together, the fluxes comprise a net global forest sink of 1.1 0.8 Pg C year 1, with tropical estimates having the largest uncertainties. Our total forest sink estimate is equivalent in magnitude to the terrestrial sink deduced from fossil fuel emissions and land-use change sources minus ocean and atmospheric sinks. Published Online July 14 2011 Science 19 August 2011: Vol. 333 no. 6045 pp. 988-993 DOI: 10.1126/science.1201609

Saving Gaias Life! - Avoiding Snowball Earth

James Lovelock The world doesn't change its climate conveniently

Transient nature of late Pleistocene climate variability Thomas J. Crowley 1 & William T. Hyde 2 Climate in the early Pleistocene 1 varied with a period of 41 kyr and was related to variations in Earths obliquity. About 900 kyr ago, variability increased and oscillated primarily at a period of 100 kyr, suggesting that the link was then with the eccentricity of Earths orbit. This transition has often 25 been attributed to a non-linear response to small changes in external boundary conditions. Here we propose that increasing variability within the past million years may indicate that the climate system was approaching a second climate bifurcation point, after which it would transition again to a new stable state characterized by permanent mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere glaciation. From this perspective the past million years can be viewed as a transient interval in the evolution of Earths climate. We support our hypothesis using a coupled energy-balance/ice-sheet model, which furthermore predicts that the future transition would involve a large expansion of the Eurasian ice sheet. The process responsible for the abrupt change seems to be the albedo discontinuity at the snowice edge. The best- fit model run, which explains almost 60% of the variance in global ice volume 6 during the past 400 kyr, predicts a rapid transition in the geologically near future to the proposed glacial state. Should it be attained, this state would be more symmetric than the present climate, with comparable areas of ice/sea-ice cover in each hemisphere, and would represent the culmination of 50 million years of evolution from bipolar nonglacial climates to bipolar glacial climates. http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/homes/tcrowley/crowley_Nature08_iceages.pdf

Planet Earth Temperature Cooling Trend Ice Ages Pleistocene Extinctions due to Low CO2

Ice Ages, Extinction and CO2 Mapping of past vegetation must have at least some reference to the present world concepts of vegetation types if the maps are to be meaningful. It is true that in many areas during the LGM, the vegetation species were combined that normally grow well apart from one another in separate vegetation/ecosystem zones and eras. The most striking example is the steppe-tundra (Tallis 1990) which brought together species of modern-day steppe and tundra vegetation respectively. To a lesser extent, the same is true of much of early and mid Holocene vegetation of the world. The possible reasons for why such unfamiliar combinations of species occurred in the past are many and varied. Shifting combinations of climatic parameters may have produced climates which suited the independent requirements of species that do not presently overlap in distribution. Changed atmospheric CO 2 levels in the past might also have produced unfamiliar combinations of species. In the case of the steppe-tundra of the LGM, the difference from present vegetation is suggested here as being too great to fit into any of the standard present-day vegetation categories. Instead, a separate category is created especially for it. Such 'lumping' of past vegetation into present-day categories is a necessary evil which may ultimately be avoidable as more and more detailed knowledge of relationships between species composition and ecological parameters such as carbon storage accumulates in the future. However for the present study the 'lumping' process is to some extent unavoidable.

C4 Plants Evolved Recently to adapt to decreasing CO2 Levels

Review: CO2 is a fertilizer C3 & C4 v. CO2 Concentration Compensation Point (180ppm)

PaleoCO 2 Change

North America ca 12kYa

North America Satellite view 12kya

The Pleistocene Ice Ages are a Continuing and Recurring Global Catastrophe! Pleistocene Megafaunal Extinctions occurred 12Kyr ago which Include Pre-Clovis Humans in North America

Reversing Geological History The Human Race is extracting fossil fuels at an unprecedented rate. It has the effect of running Geological history backwards. CO2 levels are approaching levels last seen during the Miocene Era. This is causing a Sixth Extinction event because Nature does not have time to equilibrate and allow for different species to adapt. "The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History Elizabeth Kolbert

Cenozoic CO 2 history

Global Warming Argument Cant Go Forward; Cant go Back Pro GW Warmer Planet Species Go Extinct Tuvalu, NY, Bangladesh & Florida are Flooded More Diseases World War Plants Grow Bigger & Better More Terrestrial Biodiversity Catastrophe Behind Anti GW Cooler Planet Species Go Extinct Canada, Northern Europe, US & Siberia are under Ice More Diseases Middle Ages & War Crop Failures (Little Ice Age) Less Terrestrial Biodiversity Catastrophe Ahead

GeoEngineering to Reverse Global Warming? Lets assume that it is possible. To what Geological Era (Eden) will we return? What if you go to far? How do we control it, especially if we are wrong? How does this save species? There is no equilibrium and reversibility on Gaia.

James Lovelock Trying to save the planet is a lot of nonsense - Because we cant do it....

How to Solve via Engineering Repair or Formulate a New Model Make & Test with Computer Models Design an Engineering Prototype (BioSphere 3) Test, Tinker and Control

Experimental Data is Crucial BioSphere3 The First Experiments Failed because the Atmosphere could not be modeled or controlled! First, Simulate the Earth without Humans; Test, Tinker and Control Build without Concrete or Limestone Build Two Facilities 1. Testing 2. Control Operate for Many Years like ISS Necessary to understand the GCC and the Earth Also, necessary for Deep Space Exploration After Many Years and Equilibration add Humans Biosphere 2

James Lovelock & Gaia Enjoy life while you can! http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8594000/8594561.stm

Part 2 Additional Foundation

Fubar What is broken in the GCC

IPCC Hypothesis CO2 levels are increasing due primarily to fossil fuel combustion. Nearly all of the recent atmospheric increase of CO2 is due to fossil fuel combustion. The increase will lead to increased global temperatures, melting glaciers and subsequent extinctions. The Global Cost is estimated to be $17 Trillion and the cure is to drastically reduce fossil fuel use.

2010 Data Fossil Fuel CombustionAtmospheric Increase 9.1 Gt4.2Gt = 2.1ppm 4.9 Gt of CO2 is missing The IPCC Hypothesis is false because if all of the CO2 from Fossil Fuel Combustion went into the atmosphere then the Atmospheric Concentration should have increased by 4.0ppm. www.tyndall.ac.uk/global-carbon-budget-2010

Effects of Land-Use Change on the Carbon Balance of Terrestrial Ecosystems Houghton & Goodale 2004 1980s1990s Fossil Fuel Emissions5.4 +/- 0.36.3 +/- 0.4 Atmospheric Increase3.3 +/- 0.13.2 +/- 0.2 Oceanic Uptake-1.7 +/- 0.6-2.4 +/- 0.7 Net Terrestrial Flux-0.4 +/- 0.7-0.7 +/- 0.8 Land Use Change2.0 +/- 0.82.2 +/- 0.8 Residual Terrestrial Flux Aka Missing Sink -2.4 +/- 1.1-2.9 +/- 1.1

IPCC AR4 Model Figure 7.3. The global carbon cycle for the 1990s, showing the main annual fluxes in GtC yr 1 : pre-industrial natural fluxes in black and anthropogenic fluxes in red (modified from Sarmiento and Gruber, 2006, with changes in pool sizes from Sabine et al., 2004a). The net terrestrial loss of 39 GtC is inferred from cumulative fossil fuel emissions minus atmospheric increase minus ocean storage. The loss of 140 GtC from the vegetation, soil and detritus compartment represents the cumulative emissions from land use change (Houghton, 2003), and requires a terrestrial biosphere sink of 101 GtC (in Sabine et al., given only as ranges of 140 to 80 GtC and 61 to 141 GtC, respectively; other uncertainties given in their Table 1). Net anthropogenic exchanges with the atmosphere are from Column 5 AR4 in Table 7.1. Gross fluxes generally have uncertainties of more than 20% but fractional amounts have been retained to achieve overall balance when including estimates in fractions of GtC yr 1 for riverine transport, weathering, deep ocean burial, etc. GPP is annual gross (terrestrial) primary production. Atmospheric carbon content and all cumulative fluxes since 1750 are as of end 1994. Table 7.1 Violates 2 nd Law of Thermodynamics 1.

What percentage of the CO 2 in the atmosphere has been produced by human beings through the burning of fossil fuels? CDIAC Answer: Anthropogenic CO 2 comes from fossil fuel combustion, changes in land use (e.g., forest clearing), and cement manufacture. Houghton and Hackler have estimated land-use changes from 1850-2000, so it is convenient to use 1850 as our starting point for the following discussion. Atmospheric CO 2 concentrations had not changed appreciably over the preceding 850 years (IPCC; The Scientific Basis) so it may be safely assumed that they would not have changed appreciably in the 150 years from 1850 to 2000 in the absence of human intervention.Houghton and HacklerIPCC; The Scientific Basis In the following calculations, we will express atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 in units of parts per million by volume (ppmv). Each ppmv represents 2.13 X10 15 grams, or 2.13 petagrams of carbon (PgC) in the atmosphere. According to Houghton and Hackler, land-use changes from 1850-2000 resulted in a net transfer of 154 PgC to the atmosphere. During that same period, 282 PgC were released by combustion of fossil fuels, and 5.5 additional PgC were released to the atmosphere from cement manufacture. This adds up to 154 + 282 + 5.5 = 441.5 PgC, of which 282/444.1 = 64% is due to fossil-fuel combustion.Houghton and Hacklercombustion of fossil fuels Atmospheric CO 2 concentrations rose from 288 ppmv in 1850 to 369.5 ppmv in 2000, for an increase of 81.5 ppmv, or 174 PgC. In other words, about 40% (174/441.5) of the additional carbon has remained in the atmosphere, while the remaining 60% has been transferred to the oceans and terrestrial biosphere.288 ppmv in 1850369.5 ppmv in 2000 The 369.5 ppmv of carbon in the atmosphere, in the form of CO 2, translates into 787 PgC, of which 174 PgC has been added since 1850. From the second paragraph above, we see that 64% of that 174 PgC, or 111 PgC, can be attributed to fossil-fuel combustion. This represents about 14% (111/787) of the carbon in the atmosphere in the form of CO 2. See Also, Corinne Le Queres Response: www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/06/how-much-of-the-recent-cosub2sub-increase-is-due-to- human-activities/ 1.

Also, On time-scales of ~100 years, there are only two reservoirs that can naturally exchange large quantities of CO2 with the atmosphere: the oceans and the land biosphere (forests and soils). The mass of carbon (carbon is the C in CO2) must be conserved. If the atmospheric CO2 increase was caused, even in part, by carbon emitted from the oceans or the land, we would measure a carbon decrease in these two reservoirs. - Corinne Le Qur, University of East Anglia (7 June 2005) www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/06/how-much-of-the- recent-cosub2sub-increase-is-due-to-human-activities/ 1.

Refresher: Mean Lifetime Mean lifetime If the decaying quantity, N(t), is the number of discrete elements in a certain set, it is possible to compute the average length of time that an element remains in the set. This is called the mean lifetime (or simply the lifetime or the exponential time constant), , and it can be shown that it relates to the decay rate, , in the following way:settime constantcan be shown The mean lifetime can be looked at as a "scaling time", because we can write the exponential decay equation in terms of the mean lifetime, , instead of the decay constant, : We can see that is the time at which the population of the assembly is reduced to 1/e = 0.367879441 times its initial value.1/e = 0.367879441 E.g., if the initial population of the assembly, N(0), is 1000, then at time , the population, N(), is 368. A very similar equation will be seen below, which arises when the base of the exponential is chosen to be 2, rather than e. In that case the scaling time is the "half-life".

AR4 Table 2.14 2.

Computer Model Kinetics (CO 2 )*= a 0 + a i e t/i Where a 0 = 0.217, a 1 = 0.259, a 2 = 0.338, a 3 = 0.186, 1 = 172.9 years, 2 = 18.51 years, and 3 = 1.186 years. Area Under Curve = a 3 / 3 + a 2 / 2 + a 1 / 1 + . 100% = (0.186/1.186) + (0.338/18.51) + (0.259/172.9) 100% = 88.7% + 10.4% + 0.9% *Technical Summary of the Fourth Assessment Report. The equation used in the computer models that describe CO 2 removal is on page 213 of Chapter 2 in Note a: Yearly Turnover: 800Gt/1.186 = 675Gt/yr 2.

Global Carbon Cycle Yearly Turnover: 120Gt + 90Gt = 210Gt 2.

Computer Model Kinetics Assume Open System (CO 2 )*= a 0 + a i e t/i Where a 0 = 0.217, a 1 = 0.259, a 2 = 0.338, a 3 = 0.186, 1 = 172.9 years, 2 = 18.51 years, and 3 = 1.186 years. Area Under Curve = a 3 / 3 + a 2 / 2 + a 1 / 1 + . 100% = (0.186/1.186) + (0.338/18.51) + (0.259/172.9) 100% = 88.7% + 10.4% + 0.9% *Technical Summary of the Fourth Assessment Report. The equation used in the computer models that describe CO 2 removal is on page 213 of Chapter 2 in Note a: This CO 2 is gone from the air in 3 years/ ~3 half-lives 3.

7.3.1.2P512 Consistent with the response function to a CO2 pulse from the Bern Carbon Cycle Model (see footnote (a) of Table 2.14), about 50% of an increase in atmospheric CO2 will be removed within 30 years, a further 30% will be removed within a few centuries and the remaining 20% may remain in the atmosphere for many thousands of years (Prentice et al., 2001; Archer, 2005; see also Sections 7.3.4.2 and 10.4) From AR4 3.

3.2.2.1 Background Higher plants acquire CO2 by diffusion through tiny pores (stomata) into leaves and thus to the sites of photosynthesis. The total amount of CO2 that dissolves in leaf water amounts to about 270 PgC/yr, i.e., more than one-third of all the CO2 in the atmosphere (Farquhar et al., 1993; Ciais et al., 1997). This quantity is measurable because this CO2 has time to exchange oxygen atoms with the leaf water and is imprinted with the corresponding 18O signature (Francey and Tans, 1987; Farquhar et al., 1993). Most of this CO2 diffuses out again without participating in photosynthesis. The amount that is fixed from the atmosphere, i.e., converted from CO2 to carbohydrate during photosynthesis, is known as gross primary production (GPP). Terrestrial GPP has been estimated as about 120 PgC/yr based on 18O measurements of atmospheric CO2 (Ciais et al., 1997). This is also the approximate value necessary to support observed plant growth, assuming that about half of GPP is incorporated into new plant tissues such as leaves, roots and wood, and the other half is converted back to atmospheric CO2 by autotrophic respiration (respiration by plant tissues) (Lloyd and Farquhar, 1996; Waring et al., 1998). Annual plant growth is the difference between photosynthesis and autotrophic respiration, and is referred to as net primary production (NPP). NPP has been measured in all major ecosystem types by sequential harvesting or by measuring plant biomass (Hall et al., 1993). Global terrestrial NPP has been estimated at about 60 PgC/yr through integration of field measurements (Table 3.2) (Atjay et al., 1979; Saugier and Roy, 2001). Estimates from remote sensing and atmospheric CO2 data (Ruimy et al., 1994; Knorr and Heimann, 1995) concur with this value, although there are large uncertainties in all methods. Eventually, virtually all of the carbon fixed in NPP is returned to the atmospheric CO2 pool through two processes: heterotrophic respiration (Rh) by decomposers (bacteria and fungi feeding on dead tissue and exudates) and herbivores; and combustion in natural or human-set fires (Figure 3.1d). From TAR Farquharson et al. 3.

Francey & Tans 1987 Latitudinal variation in oxygen-18 of atmospheric CO 2 Roger J. Francey * & Pieter P. Tans * CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria 3195, Australia Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado/NOAA, Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA This report provides information on a potentially important new atmospheric tracer of large-scale behaviour at the Earth's surface, the oxygen isotope composition of CO 2. We use measurements on flask air collected from Alaska, Hawaii, Samoa, Tasmania, coastal Antarctica and the South Pole. Recently, we examined 198284 measurements of 18 O in CO 2 extracted in situ from marine air at Cape Grim, Tasmania 1. Here we report on a comparison of Cape Grim flask and in situ data that gives a measure of precision and serves to demonstrate a marked improvement over previous infrequent measurements. While previous data 2,3 suggests a north-south gradient, our flask data establish a strong, asymmetric meridional gradient. We argue that this reflects the oxygen isotope ratio in ground water, via mechanisms involving gross catalysed CO 2 exchange with leaf (and possibly soil) water. Very large CO 2 fluxes are involved, of the order of 200 Gt carbon (C) yr 1. 3.

Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide Corinne Le Qur, Michael R. Raupach, Josep G. Canadell, Gregg Marland et al. 24 Nature Geoscience 2, 831 - 836 (2009) 24 Time Year Fossil fuel + Cement Land Use Change Atmospheric Growth Ocean Sink Land Sink 2004.57.781.023.352.353.09 2005.58.0915.122.441.53 2006.58.3513.82.463.09 2007.58.540.954.52.522.47 2008.58.750.943.842.343.51 2009.58.630.883.462.473.57 2010.59.140.875.012.312.69 5. Example of CO2 Tabulation

From Above Slide - Brief summary of data sources: Emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production. 1959-2008 estimates for fossil fuel combustion are from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. 2009 and 2010 estimates are based on energy statistics published by the British Petroleum Company. Emissions from cement production were estimated by CDIAC based on cement production data from the US Geological Survey. The error around the estimate is about 5 % for a 1 sigma confidence level. Reference: Marland, G., T.A. Boden, and R. J. Andres. 2005. Global, Regional, and National fossil fuel CO 2 emissions. in Trends: A Compendium of data on global change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis center, oak ridge national laboratory, U.S. Department of energy, oak ridge, tenn., U.S.A. Emissions from land use change. 1959-2010 are estimated based on deforestation statistics published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and a bookkeeping method developed at the Woods Hole Research Center. The error around the estimate is about 0.7 PgC/y. Reference: Houghton, R.A., 1999. The annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from land use 1850-1990. Tellus, 51B, 298-313. The atmospheric CO 2 increase are estimated from atmospheric CO 2 concentration measurements by the Earth System Research Laboratory of the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/ESRL). 1959-1980 are from Mauna Loa station. 1980-2010 are global averages. The error around the estimate varies every year and is around 0.25 PgC/y (see ESRL web site above for annual errors). The CO 2 concentration measurements are provided by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory, the CO 2 Program at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and other research groups. Reference: Keeling, C.D. and T.P. Whorf. 2005. Atmospheric CO 2 records from sites in the SIO air sampling network. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. The ocean sink for 1959-2008 was estimated using the average of four global ocean biogeochemistry models forced by observed atmospheric conditions of weather and CO 2 concentration (see Le Qur et al. (2009) above). The mean ocean uptake for the 1990s was normalised to the observational-based estimates. The ocean sink for 2009 and 2010 were estimated from the sink anomalies estimated by four ocean biogeochemistry models. The error in ocean sink is about 0.5 PgC/y. More information on the models used can be found here. The land sink for 1959-2010 was estimated from the residual of the other budget terms: land_sink = fossil_fuel + land_use_change - atm_growth - ocean_sink All uncertainties represent 1 sigma error (68 % chances of being in the range provided) www.tyndall.ac.uk/global-carbon-budget-2010 Not Measured Data

Precipitation & Carbon Turnover Atmosphere Carbon 800 Gt Earth Area (km 2 ) 510 E8 (km 2 ) Square Meters/ km 2 1,000,000 Average Precipitation/yr 80 cm/Yr Total 4 E14 cm 3 /yr CO2 400 ppmv Mass CO2/ Mass Carbon (44/12)155 Gt/55 Gt Residence Time (800/55)14.5 yrs Half Life (*ln2)10.0 yrs Guess 50% Rain/50% Snow20 yr life 5.

3. Yearly Total Flux: 675Gt not 240Gt 1. 2nd Law Violation! 5 Gt C Missing 2. Photosynthesis Flux Much Greater than IPCC Models 5. Does Not Include All Fluxes 4. Increase Includes Large Amt of Unknown Total Reservoir C is Increasing Precipitation as a Removal Mechanism not Included. Suess Effect Missing Summary

Conclusions Part 1. GCC Model Ignores the 2 nd Law of Thermodynamics All subsequent IPCC Calcs & Models require 2 nd Law to be invalid Computer Models ignore 3, the Largest Factor Much of the Model is not Data, but Derived Important factors, e.g. lifetime analysis, precipitation, total reservoir increases are not included Revelle & Suess are dismissed without discussion Not enough data in the reports to support the IPCC hypothesis about CO2 An Alternative Hypothesis has been introduced which follows the 2 nd Law of Thermodynamics

Suess Effect Isotope Studies disprove IPCC Hypothesis

Another Hypothesis? CO2 Levels are increasing. This is of serious concern because these increases may lead to climate changes that have unintended negative consequences. The cause of the increase is human induced; however not from the direct burning of fossil fuel. Only 16% of the increase in CO2 can be attributed to Fossil Fuels, leaving a large unknown source. Increasing atmospheric CO2 levels is the indirect result of the industrial production and addition of various Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Carbon fertilizers to the biosphere. These fertilizers increase Net Primary Productivity which leads to more plant growth and more CO2. This leads to more rapid cycling of CO2 from the atmosphere into plant growth and back again. A possible CO2 source is symbiotic mycorrhizal bioerosion of limestone in Karst Geology by deep tree roots. These soil microbes release CO2 from the rocks to the plant roots and ultimately to the atmosphere. Other sources are not ruled out, such as ocean upwelling or direct carbonic acid limestone erosion. There is no obvious remedy for this situation without starving billions of people.

Only Two Reservoirs can Naturally Exchange large Quantities of CO2 On time-scales of ~100 years, there are only two reservoirs that can naturally exchange large quantities of CO2 with the atmosphere: the oceans and the land biosphere (forests and soils). The mass of carbon (carbon is the C in CO2) must be conserved. If the atmospheric CO2 increase was caused, even in part, by carbon emitted from the oceans or the land, we would measure a carbon decrease in these two reservoirs. - Corinne Le Qur, University of East Anglia (7 June 2005) www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/06/how-much-of-the- recent-cosub2sub-increase-is-due-to-human-activities/

Bioerosion of Terrestrial Limestone is Consistent with dC13 of -7 mil in Atmosphere Ocean Surface = -10 0 / 00 Why is atm. dC13 greater than dC13 of reservoirs?

Suess Effect -Measures the total reservoir From Scripps CO2 Project 13C of Fossil Fuels = -29.5 mil ( o / oo ) Atmosphere = 1976-2008-7.7 to -8.4 mil Total Change in 13C for period 0.7 mil/32 years =.022/yr Dilution Calculation: Total C = 788 Gt x (8.4-7.7 mil)/(29.5-8.4 mil) = 33.2 Gt/32 years Contribution = 33.2Gt/10yr / 208.6 Gt*/32yr = 15.9% of CO 2 from FF Total Reservoir Calculation: Total Reservoir 2014 = 800 Gt/.159 = 5031 Gt Total Reservoir 1956 = 640 Gt/.159 = 4025 Gt Increase in Carbon = 1006Gt * From Lookup Table

It seems therefore quite impossible that an increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration of as much as 10% could have been caused by industrial fuel combustion during the past century, as Callendars statistical analyses indicate. Revelle & Suess (1956) Thus,

C14 in The Atmosphere Bomb Effect of C14 is removed in 12 years Mixing

Estimation of Atmospheric CO 2 ca. 2010 Current CO 2 400 ppm 1850 CO 2 280 ppm Life 12 years Man-made CO24.1 GT/year Total for 12 Years49.2 GT Total (Lim =1.39 x Peak)68.4 GT Total CO 2 present800 GT (Change 1ppm1.9 Gt) Total CO 2 1850538 GT Difference262 GT Ratio (Anthropogenic)0.26 (26%) Closed System (x1.23)0.32 (32%) Atmospheric lifetime 5 to 200 yr No single lifetime can be defined for CO 2 because of the different rates of uptake by different removal processes. IPCC-2001 & CDIAC

Closed Cycle v. Open Cycle 100% goes to 0% Factor k = -1 From Global Carbon Cycle 100% goes to 800/2300+1000+800+550 = 17.2% Log of 100 = 2 - Log of 17.2=.09 = 1.91 Antilog 1.91 = 81% Instead of -1, k = -0.81 y(t) = a e kt

Effective atmospheric CO 2 lifetime The effective lifetime for CO 2 in the atmosphere, can be determined by the help of radioactive, radiogenic, and stable isotopes. All measurements with different methods show short effective lifetimes for atmospheric CO 2, only ca. 5 - 6 years. Sundquist (1985); Segalstad (1998)

What percentage of the CO 2 in the atmosphere has been produced by human beings through the burning of fossil fuels? CDIAC Answer: Anthropogenic CO 2 comes from fossil fuel combustion, changes in land use (e.g., forest clearing), and cement manufacture. Houghton and Hackler have estimated land-use changes from 1850-2000, so it is convenient to use 1850 as our starting point for the following discussion. Atmospheric CO 2 concentrations had not changed appreciably over the preceding 850 years (IPCC; The Scientific Basis) so it may be safely assumed that they would not have changed appreciably in the 150 years from 1850 to 2000 in the absence of human intervention.Houghton and HacklerIPCC; The Scientific Basis In the following calculations, we will express atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 in units of parts per million by volume (ppmv). Each ppmv represents 2.13 X10 15 grams, or 2.13 petagrams of carbon (PgC) in the atmosphere. According to Houghton and Hackler, land-use changes from 1850-2000 resulted in a net transfer of 154 PgC to the atmosphere. During that same period, 282 PgC were released by combustion of fossil fuels, and 5.5 additional PgC were released to the atmosphere from cement manufacture. This adds up to 154 + 282 + 5.5 = 441.5 PgC, of which 282/444.1 = 64% is due to fossil-fuel combustion.Houghton and Hacklercombustion of fossil fuels Atmospheric CO 2 concentrations rose from 288 ppmv in 1850 to 369.5 ppmv in 2000, for an increase of 81.5 ppmv, or 174 PgC. In other words, about 40% (174/441.5) of the additional carbon has remained in the atmosphere, while the remaining 60% has been transferred to the oceans and terrestrial biosphere.288 ppmv in 1850369.5 ppmv in 2000 The 369.5 ppmv of carbon in the atmosphere, in the form of CO 2, translates into 787 PgC, of which 174 PgC has been added since 1850. From the second paragraph above, we see that 64% of that 174 PgC, or 111 PgC, can be attributed to fossil-fuel combustion. This represents about 14% (111/787) of the carbon in the atmosphere in the form of CO 2. http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/pns/faq.html

It seems therefore quite impossible that an increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration of as much as 10% could have been caused by industrial fuel combustion during the past century, as Callendars statistical analyses indicate. Revelle & Suess (1956) Why was this analysis adopted and Revelle & Suess discarded?

The increases in global atmospheric CO2 since the industrial revolution are mainly due to CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels, gas flaring and cement production. Other sources include emissions due to land use changes such as deforestation (Houghton, 2003) and biomass burning (Andreae and Merlet, 2001; van der Werf, 2004). After entering the atmosphere, CO2 exchanges rapidly with the short-lived components of the terrestrial biosphere and surface ocean, and is then redistributed on time scales of hundreds of years among all active carbon reservoirs including the long-lived terrestrial biosphere and deep ocean. The processes governing the movement of carbon between the active carbon reservoirs, climate carbon cycle feedbacks and their importance in determining the levels of CO2 remaining in the atmosphere, are presented in Section 7.3, where carbon cycle budgets are discussed. IPCC AR4 Explanation

For the Analysis to work the IPCC/CDIAC must Assume 100+ year Atmospheric CO2 Lifetime Ignore Suess Dilution Data Ignore Bomb Effect Data Ignore Ocean and Terrestrial Fluxes on GCC

Conclusions Part 2 GCC Model Ignores the 2 nd Law of Thermodynamics All subsequent IPCC Calcs & Models require 2 nd Law to be invalid Computer Models ignore 3, the Largest Factor Much of the Model is not Data, but Derived Important factors, e.g. lifetime analysis, precipitation, total reservoir increases are not included Revelle & Suess are dismissed without discussion Not enough data in the reports to support the IPCC hypothesis about CO2 An Alternative Hypothesis has been introduced which follows the 2 nd Law of Thermodynamics

Part 3 Tying Loose Ends

PhotoSynthesis & BioErosion What Happens to CO2 & What is the source of the Missing Carbon

Photosynthesis Sunlight, nutrients, H 2 O Transpiration in vascular plants Efficient transfer of H 2 O(v) to atmosphere Oxidation of C org Burning Decomposition

Tree Diagram 5% Leaves 15% Branches & Twigs 60% Trunk 15% Transport Roots 5% Fine Roots Mycorrhiza: Obligate Symbionts

Some Tree Facts Perennial C3 Plant Dominant Terrestrial Life Form Mycorrhizae are symbiotic to most trees and help the tree to process soil nutrients 50% Dry mass of tree is Carbon Some Glucose is used for cellulose structure Some Glucose is stored as starch in roots

Some Leaf Facts Globally: 30Gt of Carbon in Leaves Glucose is produced solely by the leaf C3 Plants more efficient @ higher CO2 levels Stomata open and close to allow CO2 to enter O2 & H2O transpire when stomata are open

Keeling Curve & Vegetation Lumpy Curve Due to Trees

http://dougrobbins.blogspot.com/2013/05/the-keeling-curve- seasonal-co2-cycles.html

Suess Effect -Measures the total reservoir 13C of Fossil Fuels = -29.5 mil ( o / oo ) Atmosphere = -7.8 to - 8.0 mil Total Change in 13C for period 0.2 mil/10 years Dilution Calculation: Total C = 730 Gt x (8.0-7.8 mil)/(29.5-8.0 mil) = 10.1 Gt/10 years Contribution= 6.84Gt/10yr /64.5 Gt/10yr = 16% of CO 2 from Fossil Fuel

13C in CO 2 Alert NWT, Canada C. E. Allison, R. J. Francey, and P. B. Krummel Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Atmospheric Research, 34Gt Carbon /Yearly cycle

Pleistocene Megafaunal Extinction Low CO2 Levels support C4 plants v. C3 plants

CO2 & Temperature on C3 & C4

C3 & C4 v. CO2 Concentration Compensation Point

Water Use Efficiency

Rise of C4 Plants

South America Before & After From Quaternary Environmental Networks

Africa Before & After

Eurasia

North America ca 12kYa

PaleoCO 2 Change

Cenozoic CO 2 history

12,000 years ago There was a minimum in Global Temperatures Trees are C3 Plants The CO2 Compensation Point for C3 plants was reached at 180 ppm CO2 Rain Forest was 50% Area of Present The Boreal Forest was covered in Ice The Pleistocene Megafaunal Extinction Occurred

Soil & Mycorrhizae & Fertilizers Importance of Karst Geology

Global Carbon Cycle ca. 2003 www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/fig3-1.htm en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_cycle

Global Carbon Cycle - Present

Global Carbon Cycle - 14,000 BCE 360 Gt 180 ppm 0 Gt 80 Gt 40 Gt 3 Gt 40 Gt 360 Gt 1500 Gt 1000 Gt

Ice Age terrestrial carbon changes revisited Thomas J. Crowley Article first published online: 21 SEP 2012 DOI: 10.1029/95GB01107 Copyright 1995 by the American Geophysical Union. Issue Global Biogeochemical Cycles Volume 9, Issue 3, Volume 9, Issue 3, pages 377389, September 1995 N. Shackleton (1977) first proposed that changes in the marine 13 C record ( 13 C) could be used to infer ice age changes in carbon storage on land. The previously published best estimate from the marine record is equivalent to about 490 Gt (0.32 13 C). However, Adams et al. (1990) utilized a pollen database to estimate a 1350 Gt change in carbon storage, which would cause a 13 C of about 0.90. The nearly trillion ton difference in estimates amounts to almost half of the total carbon stored on land. To address the nature of this discrepancy, I have reexamined the terrestrial carbon record based on a new pollen database compiled by R. Webb and the Cooperative Holocene Mapping Project (COHMAP) group. I estimate about 7501050 Gt glacial-interglacial change in terrestrial carbon storage, with the range reflecting uncertainties in carbon storage values for different biomes. Additional uncertainties apply to rainforest and wetland extent and presence of C4 plants, which have a significantly different isotopic signature than C3 plants. Although some scenarios overlap a new estimate of carbon storage based on the oceanic 13 C record (revised to 0.40 and 610 Gt), most estimates seem to fall outside the envelope of uncertainty in the marine record. Several possible explanations for this gap involve: (1) a missing sink may be involved in land- sea carbon exchange (e.g., continental slopes); (2) the geochemistry of the exchange process is not understood; (3) carbon storage by biome may have changed under ice age boundary conditions; or (4) the standard interpretation of whole ocean changes in the marine 13 C record requires reevaluation. This latter conclusion receives some support from comparison of the 13 C records for 18 O Stages 2 and 6. For the Stage 6 glacial, the 13 C changes are 5060% larger than for the Stage 2 glacial. Yet implications of increased aridity are not supported by longterm trends in atmospheric dust loading. To summarize, the above analysis implies that, despite the uncertainties remaining in estimates of terrestrial carbon storage changes, a case can be made that our understanding of the transfer process is incomplete and that the eventual explanation may require clarification of factors affecting the marine 13 C record.

Limestone C13 is Similar to Deep Ocean

How & Where did the New Carbon originate during the start of the Interglacials?

Mycorrhizae http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mycorrhiza A mycorrhiza (Gk. , myks, "fungus" and , riza, "roots", [1] pl. mycorrhizae or mycorrhizas) is a symbiotic (generally mutualistic, but occasionally weakly pathogenic) association between a fungus and the roots of a vascular plant. [2] [1]symbioticmutualisticpathogenic fungusvascular plant [2] In a mycorrhizal association, the fungus colonizes the host plant's roots, either intracellularly as in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF or AM), or extracellularly as in ectomycorrhizal fungi. They are an important component of soil life and soil chemistry.intracellularly arbuscular mycorrhizal fungiextracellularlyectomycorrhizalsoil lifesoil chemistry

Rhizobia Rhizobia are soil bacteria that fix nitrogen (diazotrophs) after becoming established inside root nodules of legumes (Fabaceae). Rhizobia require a plant host; they cannot independently fix nitrogen. In general, they are Gram- negative, motile, non-sporulating rods.soilbacteriafixnitrogendiazotrophsroot nodulesFabaceaeplant hostGram- negativemotilesporulating

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mycorrhizal_fungi_and_soil_carbon_storage SoilSoil contains more carbon than plants and the atmosphere combined. [1] Understanding what maintains the soil carbon pool is important to understand the current distribution of carbon on Earth, and how it will respond to environmental change. While much research has been done on how plants, free-living microbial decomposers, and soil minerals affect this pool of carbon, it is recently coming to light that mycorrhizal fungi - symbiotic fungi that associate with roots of almost all living plants - may play an important role in maintaining this pool as well. Measurements of plant carbon allocation to mycorrhizal fungi have been estimated to be 5-20% of total plant carbon uptake, [2][3] and in some ecosystems the biomass of mycorrhizal fungi can be comparable to the biomass of fine roots. [4] Recent research has shown that mycorrhizal fungi hold 50 to 70 percent of the total carbon stored in leaf litter and soil on forested islands in Sweden. [5] Turnover of mycorrhizal biomass into the soil carbon pool is thought to be rapid [6] and has been shown in some ecosystems to be the dominant pathway by which living carbon enters the soil carbon pool. [7] [1]mycorrhizal fungi [2][3] [4] [5] [6] [7] Outlined below are the leading lines of evidence on how different aspects of mycorrhizal fungi may alter soil carbon decomposition and storage. Evidence is presented for arbuscular and ectomycorrhizal fungi separately as they are phylogenetically distinct and often function in very different ways. arbuscular Soil & Carbon

Mycorrhizal Networks Mycorrhizal networks (also known as common mycorrhizal networks - CMN) are underground hyphal networks created by mycorrhizal fungi that connect individual plants together and transfer water, carbon, and nutrients. The formation of these networks is context dependent, and can be influenced by soil fertility, resource availability, host or myco-symbiont genotype, disturbance and seasonal variation. [1]mycorrhizalfungi [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mycorrhizal_network

Substances transferred through mycorrhizal networks Several studies have demonstrated that mycorrhizal networks can transport carbon, [2][3][4] phosphorus, [5] nitrogen, [6][7] water, [1][8] defense compounds, [9] and allelochemicals [10][11] from plant to plant. The flux of nutrients and water through hyphal networks has been proposed to be driven by a source-sink model, [1] where plants growing under conditions of relatively high resource availability (e.g., high light or high nitrogen environments) transfer carbon or nutrients to plants located in less favorable conditions. A common example is the transfer of carbon from plants with leaves located in high light conditions in the forest canopy, to plants located in the shaded understory where light availability limits photosynthesis. [2][3][4] [5] [6][7] [1][8] [9] [10][11] [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mycorrhizal_networks

Global Carbon Cycle

Karst Wikipedia : Carbonate-outcrops world.jpg Author ulrichstillulrichstill

Karst H 2 O + CO 2 H 2 CO 3 CaCO 3 Ca 2+ + CO 3 2 CO 3 2 + H 2 CO 3 2 HCO 3 CaCO 3 + H 2 CO 3 Ca 2+ + 2 HCO 3 2 HCO 3 + 2H 3 O + 2 H 2 CO 3 2 H 2 CO 3 2 H 2 O + 2 CO 2

Sinkholes http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/sinkholes.html

Hypothesis Part 1: The New Carbon that was incorporated into the environment at the beginning of the recent Interglacial periods is a result of Bacterial and Mycorrhizal bioerosion on accessible surface limestone deposits. CO2 was released because of increased release of microbial organic acids which subsequently dissolved CaCO3. Most of this occurred at the deeper root systems of trees, perhaps in Karst Geology. It is possible that a different community or eco-genome of Mycorrhizae was present that was more active in dissolving Carbonates

Before Industrial Agriculture & before Haber-Bosch

Review: CO2 is a fertilizer C3 & C4 v. CO2 Concentration Compensation Point (180ppm)

Plant Foliage is Indeed Increasing Impact of CO 2 fertilization on maximum foliage cover across the globe's warm, arid environments Randall J. Donohue 1,*, Michael L. Roderick 2,3,4, Tim R. McVicar 1, Graham D. Farquhar 2 Article first published online: 19 JUN 2013 DOI: 10.1002/grl.50563 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 1] Satellite observations reveal a greening of the globe over recent decades. The role in this greening of the CO 2 fertilization effectthe enhancement of photosynthesis due to rising CO 2 levelsis yet to be established. The direct CO 2 effect on vegetation should be most clearly expressed in warm, arid environments where water is the dominant limit to vegetation growth. Using gas exchange theory, we predict that the 14% increase in atmospheric CO 2 (19822010) led to a 5 to 10% increase in green foliage cover in warm, arid environments. Satellite observations, analyzed to remove the effect of variations in precipitation, show that cover across these environments has increased by 11%. Our results confirm that the anticipated CO 2 fertilization effect is occurring alongside ongoing anthropogenic perturbations to the carbon cycle and that the fertilization effect is now a significant land surface process.

Nitrogen is a Fertilizer

CO2 Increase also Correlates with Fertilizer Use

Greenhouse Gases http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/

What About Deforestation? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBIA0lqfcN4 Not ready to answer this yet, however there are two questions that that I will ask in this context. 1.What are the differences with regard to Carbon flux between old growth perennial rainforest and the new annual growth? 2.How much industrial fertilizer is used in cleared land which was previously forest?

Malthusian Nightmare How many people would starve to death if we stopped producing industrial fertilizers? Trying to save the planet is a lot of nonsense- Because we cant do it James Lovelock

World Population Growth 6.586 Billion (2006)

Oceanic Dead Zones

Part 3 Conclusions Soil is the Largest Reservoir of Exchangeable Carbon Symbiotic Soil Microorganisms play an essential role for nearly all plants by providing nutrients and exchanging Carbon A possible Ice Age Global Carbon cycle was proposed A natural scenario that explains interglacial global increases of CO2 was proposed and bioerosion is a major under-studied factor. A large fraction of the worlds population depends on increasing industrial fertilizer production which include, Nitrogen, Phosphate & Potash CO2 is also a fertilizer As predicted, plant foliage is increasing The Ocean Biota is vulnerable to over-fertilization

A Contrarian Discussion Science is a tool to study the Universe and it is not necessarily the study...

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