A Consensus in Quebec on Threshold Values for Emergency Response and Land Use Planning

CRAIM/MIARC• Created in 1996 as a regional MIACC

organization for the Montreal area;– MIACC was created in the 1980’s by governments

and industry following major industrial accidents like Bhopal in India to prevent similar accidents in Canada. MIACC was disbanded in the late 1990’s. CRAIM continued to function locally.

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CRAIM/MIARC Vision

• MIARC aims to be the benchmark in hazardous

substance risk management within the scope of

sustainable development by applying rigorous,

responsible and concerted methodologies.

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CRAIM/MIARC Mission

• TO DEVELOP rigorous tools and methods that provide responsible management of risks related to hazardous substances.

• TO PROMOTE and support a culture of collaboration between all stakeholders to effectively manage the risks involving hazardous substances.

• TO FOSTER, with stakeholders, a reduction in the risks of major industrial accidents through the implementation of appropriate prevention, preparedness, response and recovery measures.

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CRAIM/MIARC Members

– MIARC is a non-profit organization– It regroups about 85 members from

• Municipalities• Citizens• Industry• Governments• Consulting firms or professional organization

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CRAIM/MIARC activities

– MIARC supports local initiatives (among them LEPC – Local emergency planning committees), organizes conferences and workshops for des industries, municipalities, first responders and citizens.

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Risk management guide for major industrial accidents

• MIARC published the « Risk Management guide for major industrial accidents» available in both official languages and recognized internationally (APELL) as a reference in the risk management field.

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CRAIM guideLast edition in 2007

• Recipient of the ¨Mérite québécois de la sécurité civile¨ in 2007

• Next revision in progress

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Technical Popularization Pamphlets

For quick (4 pages) information on basic concepts in risk management.

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TPP 1 Worst case vs alternate scenarios TPP 2 Emergency plan testing

TPP 3 Safety barriers and Bow tie

TPP 4 Ammonia

TPP 5 LPG and LNG

TPP 6 Evacuation versus confinement

TPP 7 The Explosions

PROPANE ERP• For simple installations• Provides a plan that is

adaptable to the installation• Meets the Canadian

regulations and good practices• Objective:

– Be ready– Reduce consequences

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Activities

• Workshops

– Ammonia– Explosions– Chlorine– Sulphuric acid– …

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On INTERNET…

• News

• Activities

• Publications

• Links with partners

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LES VALEURS DE RÉFÉRENCE DE SEUILS D’EFFETS POURDÉTERMINER DES ZONES DE PLANIFICATION DES MESURES

D’URGENCE ET D’AMÉNAGEMENT DU TERRITOIRE

LES VALEURS DE RÉFÉRENCE DE SEUILS D’EFFETS POURDÉTERMINER DES ZONES DE PLANIFICATION DES MESURES

D’URGENCE ET D’AMÉNAGEMENT DU TERRITOIRE

CONTEXT• The MIARC study on the CMMI produced for

the Quebec Public Security Ministry and many workshops from MIARC and ASCQ pointed the need for tools and clear consensual guidelines

• A 2009 workshop demonstrated that clear guidelines established in various countries can be implemented in Quebec with a reasonnable additional expertise investment

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CONTEXT•Multiple debates on methodologies and threshold values to be used on project public hearings (BAPE and others)

– The requirements vary according to the people involved in the project (promoter, consultants, experts, civil servants…)

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OBJECTIVES• Define the process to establish emergency

planning zones and land use planning– To avoid catastrophies as Megantic

• Clarify– Thermal load and heat flux– Toxical concentration and dose

• Define a simple yet rigorous methodology adapted to the province

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Process Steps

1. Review of the thershold values used here and in the world

2. Review and develop processes to establish emergency response planning zones

3. Review and develop processes to establish land use planning

4. Reach a consensus on a process and criteria to use for EPZ and land use planning

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Participants• MIARC• Industry representatives

– Montreal East Industrial Association– Gaz Metropolitain

• Montreal City Fire Department• Consultant representatives• Citizen

Approval

• CIRT (Inter minister committee on technological risks)

– health– civil security– environment – municipal affairs and land use

RECOMMANDATIONS1. Radiation threshold values for EPZ

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Event Type Exemples Thermal load Thermal flux

Low duration : < 40 s

BLEVE fireball 1000(kW/m2)4/3 *s

Long duration : >40 s

Pool fire 5 kW/m2

RECOMMANDATIONS2. Blast wave threshold values for EPZ

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Overpressure EPZ

0,3 psiTo be provided for

information

1 psiSafety perimeter and

population alert

3 psiEvacuation before the

explosion when possible

RECOMMANDATIONS3. Toxic threshold values for EPZAEGL for shorter duration may be used when justified

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Toxicity level EPZAEGL-1 (60 min) Information to health

authorities, Info-Santé and 911

AEGL-2 (60 min) Safety perimeter

AEGL-3 (60 min) Possible fatality

Recommendation

Individual risk for probabilistic risk in land use planning

Individual Risk

10-5 to 10-4

10-6 to 10-5

0.3x10-6 to 10-6

Recommendation

A deterministic approach for simple installations with lower risk levels

In other words, for the one or two vessel installation where the means required for a complete QRA may be disproportionate for the project importance

Deterministic: The scenario probability is not considered, so the thereshold values need to be very conservative.

RECOMMANDATIONS

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4. Radiation threshold values for land use planning, determistic method

Event type LimitsLow duration : < 40 sThermal dose 260 - 500 (kW/m2)4/3 *s

500 - 1000 (kW/m2)4/3 *s1000 - 1800 (kW/m2)4/3 *s

Long duration : > 40 sHeat flux 3 - 5 kW/m2

5 - 8 kW/m2

8 – 12,5 kW/m2

RECOMMANDATIONS

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5. Overpressure threshold values for land use planning

Overpressure

0,3 psi à 1 psi

1 psi à 3 psi

3 psi et over

RECOMMANDATIONS6. Toxic threshold values in land use planning for

deterministic method

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Toxicity level

AEGL-3 < C : Use the probabilistic method

AEGL-2 < C ≤ AEGL-3

C ≤ AEGL-2

RECOMMANDATIONS

• Threshold values for projectiles

– Not considered for EPZ or land use planning

– Information should be given

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Modeling tools and parameters

• Review of available software with their

limits

• Parameters

– Worst atmospheric stability conditions,

1.5 F to be considered

– 50% humidity

– 25ºC

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METHODOLOGY

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Land Use Planning

ENV 721 Gestion des risques environnementaux par Robert Reiss

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Tools in Preparation• Document on modelisation criteria

– Uniformity needed• New guide revision

– Clarifications on scenario parameters and EPZ– Additions

– Transportation– Pipelines– Modelisation criteria

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CONCLUSION• Consensual recommendations• Recommendations based on scientific knowledge and

good practices in risk management• MIARC expects that these values will be adopted in

regulation in order to ensure– Similar results independent of who does the analysis– Uniform criteria for the same public protection– Limit the time needed to agree on such criteria (CMMI,

public hearings).

• If adopted, such a consensus will reduce the uncertainty on project acceptability

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Thank you

QUESTIONS?

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ENV 721 Gestion des risques environnementaux par Robert Reiss

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My question to youAs a risk manager for a company operating across the

country, I need a minimum of differences in the practices in each province.

Can we expect a consensus at a national level, includingthe major provincial stakeholders, in a near futur?