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A Comparison of Three Approaches to Tracking
Undergraduate Students at Indiana University Regional Campuses
Measurement Perspectives on Student Tracking
Purpose
To provide a range of views of student persistence • Traditional fall-to-fall retention and 150% graduation
rates, and the years in between (i.e., student flow)
• The “Adelman Model” for more inclusive cohort tracking
• The persistence index: difference among campuses and academic divisions
A conceptual warm-up for thinking about strategies for improving student success rates
Students Included in Each Method
Example: 2006-07 as the base year
CampusTraditional
CohortsAdelman
CohortsPersistence
IndexRegional Total 2,590 5,942 19,138
East 226 562 1,923Kokomo 331 681 2,368Northwest 561 1,277 4,001South Bend 750 1,839 5,713Southeast 722 1,583 5,133
2,5905,942
19,138
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Traditional Adelman Pers. Index
Regional Total
First-time-in-college, enrolled full-time (12 + credits) during first fall semester; tracked for
one and six years
New to IU during summer, fall or spring of full academic year; enrolled
for 6 or more credits in first fall or spring semester; tracked as traditional beginner, nontraditional beginner, or
transfer; tracked for six and nine years
All undergraduate, degree-seeking students enrolled in fall semester, categorized by class level, credit
load, and need met/income status, tracked for one year
Trends in Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates and
150% Graduation Rates, and Student Flow
The Traditional Method
IU Regional Campus Retention Rates
Retention Rates Cohort Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Full-time Beginners
Began 2,584 2,746 2,656 2,609 2,623Retained 1,674 1,705 1,618 1,526 1,591Retention Rate 64.8% 62.1% 60.9% 58.5% 60.7%
Bachelor's Intended FTB
Began 2,189 2,369 2,384 2,400 2,426Retained 1,418 1,493 1,463 1,414 1,479
Retention Rate 64.8% 63.0% 61.4% 58.9% 61.0%
IU Regional Campus Graduation Rates
Graduation Rates Cohort Year 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Full-time Beginners
Began 2,362 2,557 2,446 2,450 2,590Received Degree 597 624 672 638 728Graduation Rate 25.3% 24.4% 27.5% 26.0% 28.1%
Bachelor's Intended FTB
Began 2,025 2,238 2,150 2,191 2,267Received Degree 515 522 584 559 625
Graduation Rate 25.4% 23.3% 27.2% 25.5% 27.6%
150% for Bachelor’s, Associate’s and Certificates
150% for Bachelor’s, Associate’s and Certificates
150% for Bachelor’s Only
150% for Bachelor’s Only
Student Flow Tables Semester-to-semester view of
retention/graduation Extension of “traditional” cohort reporting
• Full-time beginner cohorts (2001-2006)• Intercampus persistence• Intercampus degree completion
Results may differ from official reports• Updates to cohorts• Exclusions/exceptions not considered (military)• Degree completion post 150% (Cert./Assoc.)
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IU Regional Campuses: Percent Enrolled or Degree Conferred among Full-time Beginners
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7
Cohort Count Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall
2001 2,598 100% 85% 67% 58% 52% 48% 46% 43% 42% 41% 40% 39% 39%
2002 2,584 100% 84% 65% 57% 52% 48% 45% 43% 42% 41% 40% . .
2003 2,747 100% 83% 62% 55% 48% 44% 40% 39% 37% . . . .
2004 2,659 100% 82% 61% 54% 47% 42% 40% . . . . . .
2005 2,608 100% 81% 58% 50% 46% . . . . . . . .
2006 2,630 100% 79% 61% . . . . . . . . . .
2001-2006 15,826 100% 83% 62% 55% 49% 46% 43% 41% 40% 41% 40% 39% 39%
Full-time BeginnersFull-time Beginners
Year NumbersCoordinate with Cohort
Year NumbersCoordinate with CohortFor 2002 Cohort
Year 3 is 2004-05For 2002 Cohort Year 3 is 2004-05
For 2003 Cohort Year 3 is 2005-06For 2003 Cohort Year 3 is 2005-06
No Information for Spring 08 and Fall 08
No Information for Spring 08 and Fall 08
6-Cohort Aggregate6-Cohort Aggregate
1 CohortLess Stable?
1 CohortLess Stable?
Fall, Year 1Is Enrollment at First Semester
Fall, Year 1Is Enrollment at First Semester
Spring, Year 1Is Retention to
Second Semester
Spring, Year 1Is Retention to
Second Semester
Fall, Year 2Is Retention to
Second Year
Fall, Year 2Is Retention to
Second Year
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Semester, Year NumberSemester, Year NumberFall Semester, Year 1Fall Semester, Year 1 Spring Semester, Year 6Spring Semester, Year 6
Includes Certificates and Associate’s Degrees
Beyond 150%
Includes Certificates and Associate’s Degrees
Beyond 150%
Step Pattern?Step Pattern?
100% for First Fall100% for First Fall
Does trend line level off?
Does trend line level off?
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Total Year 1 Year 2
Cohort Count Fall Spring Fall Spring
2001 2,598 100% 85% 67% 58%
2002 2,584 100% 84% 65% 57%
2003 2,747 100% 83% 62% 55%
2004 2,659 100% 82% 61% 54%
2005 2,608 100% 81% 58% 50%
2006 2,630 100% 79% 61% .
Total Year 1 Year 2
Cohort Count Fall Spring Fall Spring
2001 2,598 100% 85% 67% 58%
2002 2,584 100% 84% 65% 57%
2003 2,747 100% 83% 62% 55%
2004 2,659 100% 82% 61% 54%
2005 2,608 100% 81% 58% 50%
2006 2,630 100% 79% 61% .
Retention to theSecond SemesterRetention to theSecond Semester
Retention to the Second Year
Retention to the Second Year
Subgroup Tables Gender Race
• White, Other (African American, Hispanic)
Age• < 20, 20-24, 25+
Geographic Origin• Home County, Other (Res/Non-res)
Financial Need• Filed FAFSA and Need > $0
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IU Regional Campuses: Percent Enrolled or Degree Conferred among Full-time Beginners
YearSubgroup Tables 1 2 5 7
Cohort Count Spring Fall Fall FallGender Female 2001 1,638 86% 68% 43% 42%
2002 1,601 86% 68% 45% .2003 1,702 85% 65% 39% .2004 1,653 84% 64% . .2005 1,585 82% 59% . .2006 1,560 81% 62% . .
Male 2001 960 83% 64% 41% 35%2002 983 82% 59% 36% .2003 1,045 81% 57% 35% .2004 1,006 79% 56% . .2005 1,023 80% 57% . .
2006 1,070 77% 59% . .
Important Indicators of First Year Experience
Important Indicators of First Year Experience
Degree Completion through Years 4 and 6
Degree Completion through Years 4 and 6
A More Inclusive Method for Cohort Tracking
The Adelman Model
Beyond the Traditional Cohort
Traditional Cohort Adelman Cohort• Fall semester as starting point • Any term of an academic year
(July 1 – June 30)• Full-time (12+ credits) only • 6 or more first term credits• One cohort • Three subgroups:
– Traditional beginner (<24 yrs)– Nontraditional beginner (24+)– Transfer
• Six-year terminal point - graduation only
• Six & Nine year terminal points, graduated or still enrolled
• Track nationally using NSC (optional)
• Track nationally using NSC (optional)
Application 1: The Early Years Going back to 1997-98 thru 2001-02
• Nine year tracking for first two cohorts
• Six Year tracking for all
Traditional/nontraditional distinction among beginners based solely on age (<24, 24+)
First examine size and distribution of cohorts
Then look at status after six and nine years
The Early Cohorts
Annual
Traditional Non-Trad. Transfers Total
East 1,732 639 673 3,044
Kokomo 2,189 286 964 3,439
Northwest 3,081 560 1,351 4,992
South Bend 4,068 679 2,280 7,027Southeast 4,132 539 1,525 6,196
The Adelman Entry Groups, AY 1997-98 through AY 2001-02, Combined
Beginners
The Early Cohorts
Trend in Six- and Nine-Year Adelman Persistence Rates by Entry ModeAll Campuses Combined
1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02
Cohort N 2880 3111 2958 3066 3187Six-Year Rate 36% 34% 36% 35% 36%
Graduated 24% 22% 24% 24% 26%Still Enrolled 12% 12% 11% 10% 11%
Nine-Year Rate 33% 33%Graduated 29% 28%Still Enrolled 4% 5%
Cohort N 498 462 495 534 714Six-Year Rate 26% 29% 23% 31% 25%
Graduated 16% 19% 16% 20% 15%Still Enrolled 10% 10% 8% 11% 10%
Nine-Year Rate 23% 26%Graduated 20% 23%Still Enrolled 3% 3%
Cohort N 1162 1205 1303 1507 1616Six-Year Rate 46% 45% 48% 46% 47%
Graduated 38% 38% 42% 39% 40%Still Enrolled 8% 7% 6% 7% 7%
Nine-Year Rate 45% 45%Graduated 42% 42%Still Enrolled 3% 3%
Transfers
Traditional Beginners
Non-Traditional Beginners
Composite Rate
Trends in Six-Year StatusPercent Graduated or Still Enrolled
Trends in Nine-Year StatusPercent Graduated or Still Enrolled
Comparison to Regional Composite
Application 2: More Recent Years AY 2004-05 thru 2006-07 Refine the traditional/nontraditional distinction
• Nontraditional as either financially independent or dependent/no FAFSA and age 24+
First look at cohort size and group distribution Then examine the first few years of
persistence• Through the fourth year for 2004-05 cohorts• Through the third year for 2005-06 cohorts• Through the second year for 2006-07 cohorts
More Recent Cohorts
Annual
Traditional Non-Trad. Transfers Total
East 835 456 669 1,960
Kokomo 1,198 287 766 2,251
Northwest 1,757 645 1,292 3,694
South Bend 2,571 557 2,137 5,265Southeast 2,321 337 1,759 4,417
The Adelman Entry Groups, AY 2004-05 through AY 2006-07, Combined
Beginners
More Recent Cohorts
The Early Cohorts
Yearly Persistence Status Cohort N 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year
Traditional Beginners2004-05 2,820 62% 47% 39%2005-06 2,909 60% 45%2006-07 2,953 62%Combined 8,682 61% 46% 39%
Non-Traditional Beginners2004-05 795 58% 37% 30%2005-06 785 59% 39%2006-07 702 59%Combined 2,282 59% 38% 30%
Transfers2004-05 2,095 66% 52% 46%2005-06 2,241 67% 54%2006-07 2,287 66%Combined 6,623 66% 53% 46%
Comparison to Regional Composite
Accounting for All Students and Examining
Differences in Patterns among Campuses and Academic Groupings
The Persistence Index
Methodology Considers all undergraduate, degree-seeking
students in a given fall semester• Fall 2006 for the present analysis
Tracks them to the next fall semester• Enrolled fall 2007 or received degree 2006-07
Divides them into three sets of categories• Class level: 1st year; beyond 1st year• Credit load: 6 or fewer credits; 7-12.5 credits; 13+
credits• Need met/Income status
Methodology (2) Categories derived from analysis of cut-points
that optimize group differences in retention• Chi-square automatic interaction detection (CHAID)
Need met/Income indicator more complicated• Percent of need met positively associated with
persistence among those of known income• Income positively associated with persistence among
those who did not have need assessed• Strange relationship among those with need assessed
but no known income• Many students missing both (no FAFSA at all)
The Need Met/Income Indicator
Percent Need Met Q1. < $30k Q2. $30k-<$55k Q3,4. $55k+ Missing<=31% 968 599 390 5>31%-<=55% 1611 912 415 17>55%+ 2569 1341 1201 23Missing 368 344 2426 5949
Percent Need Met Q1. < $30k Q2. $30k-<$55k Q3,4. $55k+ Missing<=31% 46% 52% 52% 80%>31%-<=55% 68% 74% 75% 76%>55%+ 80% 83% 83% 83%Missing 36% 60% 72% 66%
LowMedium
High
Number of Students
Persistence to Fall 2007 (Enrolled or Graduated)Income (Based on State Quartiles, Family Income 2005)
Income (State Quartiles, Family Income 2005)
The Persistence Index CategoriesPercentage of Students in Each Category (all campuses combined)
Persistence Rate by Category (all campuses combined)
1st Year, 34%>1st
Yr., 66%
Class LevelLow, 14%
Med, 59%
Hi, 27%
Need Met/Income
6 or less, 21%
7-12.5, 60%
13 +, 20%
Course Load
56%
76%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1st Year >1st Yr.
59%70%
78%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
6 or less 7-12.5 13 +
49%
69%82%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Low Med Hi
Methodology (3) Array students in matrix according to the
combination of all three factors (2x3x3) Determine percent of students in each cell Calculate persistence rates for each cell Results
• Examine pattern of campus cell rates to composite matrix rates
• Calculate the persistence index by multiplying cell rates by composite percentages (common weights)
Can group students by academic division, across campuses, to compare rates by division
The Persistence Index Matrix: Counts
All Regional Campuses, Combined (N=19,138)
Total Number of Students
Low Medium High6 hours or fewer 257 823 907 - 12.5 hours 808 2,545 90713 + hours 145 629 2736 hours or fewer 481 1,948 3897 - 12.5 hours 780 3,928 2,44113 + hours 198 1,457 1,039
Need Met/Income Indicator
Class Level Credit Load
First-Year
Beyond 1st Yr.
The Persistence Index Matrix: Percentages
All Regional Campuses, Combined
Percent of Students
Low Medium High6 hours or fewer 1.3% 4.3% 0.5%7 - 12.5 hours 4.2% 13.3% 4.7%13 + hours 0.8% 3.3% 1.4%6 hours or fewer 2.5% 10.2% 2.0%7 - 12.5 hours 4.1% 20.5% 12.8%13 + hours 1.0% 7.6% 5.4%
First-Year
Beyond 1st Yr.
Class Level Credit Load
Need Met/Income Indicator
The Persistence Index Matrix: Persistence Rates
All Regional Campuses, Combined
Persistence Rates
Low Medium High6 hours or fewer 36% 48% 71%7 - 12.5 hours 32% 59% 70%13 + hours 31% 65% 83%6 hours or fewer 56% 62% 81%7 - 12.5 hours 63% 79% 84%13 + hours 72% 81% 87%
Beyond 1st Yr.
Class Level Credit Load
Need Met/Income Indicator
First-Year
A Campus Example
Cell Persistence Rates in Comparison To Composite Matrix
Low Medium High6 hours or fewer 42% 45% 75%7 - 12.5 hours 26% 56% 59%13 + hours 42% 62% 77%6 hours or fewer 61% 61% 88%7 - 12.5 hours 71% 82% 86%13 + hours 80% 86% 91%More than 3 percentage points below the composite rateWithin 3 percentage points of composite rateMore than 3 percentage points above the composite rate
Beyond 1st Yr.
Class Level Credit Load
Need Met/Income Indicator
First-Year
The Rate and “Cell Summary” Table
Academic Division ComparisonsBusiness, All Campuses Combined
Low Medium High6 hours or fewer 49% 48% 83%7 - 12.5 hours 30% 58% 78%13 + hours 45% 66% 90%6 hours or fewer 63% 67% 80%7 - 12.5 hours 62% 80% 84%13 + hours 74% 78% 89%
Class Level Credit Load
% Need Met/Income Indicator
First-Year
Beyond 1st Yr.
IU Northwest
Low Medium High6 hours or fewer 60% 58%7 - 12.5 hours 44% 55% 80%13 + hours 72% 93%6 hours or fewer 90% 74% 57%7 - 12.5 hours 67% 84% 89%13 + hours 79% 93%
Class Level Credit Load% Need Met/Income Indicator
First-Year
Beyond 1st Yr.
Division Summary Table
b. BusinessUnadjusted Adjusted
Campus Rate Rate N of Cells Below Neutral AboveEast 72% 69% 12 42% 42% 17%Kokomo 70% 72% 15 40% 27% 33%Northwest 75% 75% 15 13% 13% 73%South Bend 67% 69% 18 44% 33% 22%Southeast 78% 74% 11 27% 36% 36%
"Cell Performance"
a. IU EastSummary of Persistence Matrix Comparisons
Unadjusted AdjustedDivision Rate Rate N of Cells Below Neutral AboveArts & Sciences 71% 68% 8 50% 13% 38%Business 72% 69% 12 42% 42% 17%Continuing Studies 71% 69% 9 33% 11% 56%Education 79% 80% 12 25% 8% 67%Health & Human Services 79% 69% 5 40% 0% 60%Nursing 86% 76% 5 60% 20% 20%Public & Env. Affairs 63% 64% 8 63% 0% 38%University Division 55% 56% 17 41% 35% 24%
Arts & Sciences
Business
Continuing Studies
Education
Health & Human Services
Nursing
Public & Env. Affairs
University Division
"Cell Performance"
Percent of Cells Below, Similar, and Above Overall-100% -75% -50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Campus Summary by Division